GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES 120 40 High Canada ... · Google Search Trends • Google...

1

GLOBAL FX STRATEGY | FX QUICK NOTES Tuesday July 14, 2020

High-Frequency Dashboard: Tracking the Post-Lockdown Recovery (July 14, 2020)

Shaun Osborne

Chief FX Strategist

461.945.4538

[email protected]

Follow us on Twitter @SCOTIABANKFX

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

Retail & recreation Grocery & pharmacyParks Transit stationsWorkplaces Residential

Source: Google, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Google Community Mobility % change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



US Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10)

Google Community Mobility

• Daily Google data tracking movement trends continues to point to a gradual recovery in economic activity. Germany and Japan are generally

taking the lead across all metrics with US following closely until a recent plateauing of activity that suggests rebounding cases in parts of the

country are leading to mandated and voluntary distancing while Canadian mobility data continues on an upward trend; note impact of July 1st in

Canada and July 4th in the US. The reopening of non-essential retailers in the UK has led to a modest rebound in retail mobility which has caught

up to Mexico, amid surging (and unchecked) COVID case counts.

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



UK Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



Germany Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



Japan Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10)

-80

-40

0

40

80

120

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20



Mexico Google Community Mobility% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10)

Juan Manuel Herrera

FX Strategist

416.866.6781

[email protected]

-80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

US GermanyUK JapanMexico Canada


Google Community Mobility: Workplaces

% change from baseline, 7-dma

(Last: Jul 10) -100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



Google Community Mobility: Retail


(Last: Jul 10) -80

-70

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20



Google Community Mobility: Transit Stns.


(Last: Jul 10)

https://twitter.com/Scotiabankfx

2


0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20


Canada and US:Topic "Unemployment Benefits"

respective peak = 100(Last: Jul 11)

Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Cda "CERB"

7-day ma

Cda"CESB"

7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20


Canada and US:Search Term "New Car"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Rent Relief"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20


Canada and US:Search Term "Realtor"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

Google Search Trends

• Google Trends data shows a marked decline in search interest for unemployment benefits in Canada—including searches for the federal

government’s other income support programmes, CERB (now expanded by 8 weeks) and CESB. In the US, however, there’s been a recent,

slight, uptick in searches—that had also remained stubbornly high—which may reflect new rounds of layoffs as cases rebound and certain

businesses close again or due to concerns over the end-July lapse of the $600/wk emergency unemployment benefits top-up. Searches for

“Covid test” have also surged in the US amid a quick increase in contagions in parts of the country that may also be result in increased spending

caution by households reflected in flat to declining searches for “realtor” and “new car”.

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20


Canada and US:Topic "Bankruptcy"


Canada7-day ma

US7-day ma

0

20

40

60

80

100

03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

UK FraIta MexUS Cda


Search Term "Covid Test"

respective peak = 100, 7-day ma (Last: Jul 11)

New York Fed Economic Index

• The NY Fed’s weekly economic index which

aggregates ten different daily and weekly

indices points to a year-on-year decline in

GDP of around –6.9% in early-July

equivalent to a 5.6% q/q increase for Q3

following a 26.6% q/q contraction in Q2.

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

Source: FRBNY, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US FRBNY WeeklyEconomic Indexy/y % GDP grow th equivalent(Last: Jul 11)

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20Source: FRBSF, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

San Fran Fed US Daily News Sentiment Index

index(Last: Jul 12)

San Fran Fed News Index

• The FRB of San Francisco’s Daily News

Sentiment Index, which tracks the implied

tone of news articles in 16 major US

newspapers, points to an improvement in

sentiment since its trough in late-March,

which may marginally boost consumer

confidence.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

US (2019) US (2020)

Canada (2019) Canada (2020)

Source: Indeed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Indeed New Job Postings

Feb 1 = 100, 7-dma (Last: Jul 3)

Indeed New Job Postings

• Online daily job postings on Indeed remain

depressed relative to 2019 as firms hold

back on hiring plans, with the trend in new

job postings in Canada down by around 20%

whereas in the US they are only down about

7%—from 19% and 12%, respectively a

week prior.

3


Scotiabank Canadian Merchant Data

• Scotiabank debit and credit card payments data compiled by our Economics, Customer Insights, and

Data & Analytics teams show that retail transactions across core merchant categories such as

entertainment, travel, and restaurants remain heavily depressed in Canada when compared to the

same period last year; note that the data may partly underestimate the decline in sales owing to

increased usage of cards instead of cash to avoid contagion. Total credit and debit transactions now

stand around 10% above their year-ago levels after falling by close to 30% y/y in April; clothing and

automotive sales have also begun to rise year-on-year. While the lockdown measures, travel bans,

and fear of contagion have sharply hit the travel industry—with transaction volumes down about 50%

y/y as of a week ago—other sectors have seen an increase in sales as people spend more time at

home (e.g. computer software sales are up about 90% y/y). For more details see here. For questions

contact Nikita Perevalov ([email protected]).

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Travel

Restaurants

Hardware stores

Automotive

Clothing

Entertainment

Health

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jul 6)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Telecom servicesComputer networkComputer softwareGrocer iesDigital goods

14-day ma of daily dollar volume oftransactions, y/y % (Last: Jul 6)

Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Customer Insights, Data & Analytics.

Scotiabank Canadian Transactions Data:Sales by Merchant Category

Scotia FX Risk Appetite Index

• Our daily risk appetite index—a factor of

financial risk variables such as CDS spreads

and market volatility—is trading around its

200DMA after having declined from that

mark due to contagion concerns and has

now picked up in the past few days on the

back of solid economic data and despite

rising cases in the US.

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

MfgFinanceProf/Biz svcsEduc/HealthLeisure/HospTotal

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Burning Glass,

Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Job Postings by Industry

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 3)

Affinity Solutions US Card Spending Data

• Affinity Solutions debit and credit card payments data show that retail sales in the US remain

around 10% off their baseline in early-2020 with grocery purchases remaining elevated as

individuals spend more time at home while spending on recreation and transportation remains

quite depressed at ~ 50% lower than baseline, while accommodation and food spending is about

35% lower. Spending on general merch. & apparel has rebounded to only 3% below baseline. The

recent leg lower in expenses is worrying, however, and may reflect caution by households as

supplementary unemployment benefits look set to lapse and amid depressed confidence from

rising contagions in most US states.

Burning Glass US Jobs Postings

• Weekly Burning Glass data show that US job

postings have sharply turned after a strong

rebound in the previous week albeit still

remain above their late-April/early-May

depths, when compared to their January

baseline. Total job postings are now 14%

lower compared to 39% lower in late-April

and +5% the prior week. Openings in the

leisure and hospitality sector quickly gave

back their gains as reopening plans are

scaled back.

-3.00

-2.50

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Scotiabank FX Strategy Risk Appetite Index

index, 2008-present avg. = 0(Last: Jul 14)

100DMA

Risk appetite index

200DMA

40DMA

-50

-25

0

25

01/20 03/20 05/20

TopMiddleBottom QuartileAll

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020),Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by ZIP Code Median Income Quartile% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 1)

-100

-75

-50

-25

0

25

50

75

100

01/20 03/20 05/20

AllHealthAcc/FoodGroceriesTrans/WHArts/Ent/RecGenMerch/Apparel

Source: Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner (2020), Opportunity Insights, Aff inity Solutions,


US Credit/Debit Card Spending by Sector

% change from Jan 4-31 baseline, 7-dma (Last: Jul 1)

https://www.scotiabank.com/content/dam/scotiabank/sub-brands/scotiabank-economics/english/documents/insights-views/2020-07-09_I&V.pdf

mailto:[email protected]

4


30

40

50

60

70

80

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: RTE, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

France Energy Demand

000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Jul 13)

latest: 92% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

Thousands

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: EIA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Midwest Energy Demand


latest: 100% of avg

Energy Demand

• Hourly energy demand data shows the impact of the economic lockdown on industrial sector

activity as a large share of factories and offices remain idle—although in the case of the latter

some of this demand is substituted by residential demand which is less energy efficient.

• Energy demand in the countries/regions that we track has generally been around 10% lower

than the average of the previous two/three years over the past couple of months, thus

suggesting that the global economy still remains well below its pre-pandemic levels.

Abnormally high temperatures in Ontario have increased air-conditioning usage temporarily

and above seasonal norms; more closely mirroring energy demand in 2018. It is more likely

that the current slump in energy demand observed in France, Germany, Japan, and Mexico

reflects more accurately the magnitude of the economic depression.

22

27

32

37

42

47

52

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20 09/20 11/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: TEPCO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Japan Energy Demand000 mw h 5pm, 14-dma(Last: Jul 13)

latest = 91% of avg

10

12

14

16

18

20

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: SMARD, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Energy Demand


latest = 93% of avg.

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

20172018201920202017-19 avg

Source: IESO, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Ontario Energy Demand


latest: 112% of avg

25

30

35

40

45

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: Cenace, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Mexico Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max

(Last: Jul 12)

latest: 93% of avg

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

01/20 04/20 07/20 10/20

2018

2019

2020

2018-19 avg

Source: ONS, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Brazil Energy Demand

000 mw h, daily max (Last: Jul 12)

latest: 100% of avg

0

20

40

60

80

100

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

China GermanyUK JapanMexico New ZealandUS Canada

Source: Hale, Webster, Petherick, Phillips, and Kira (2020). Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government , Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Incorporates public information on 17 indicators of government responses.

Oxford Lockdown Stringency Index

100 = strictest response Lockdown Stringency Index

• Oxford University's lockdown stringency index—a useful

guideline to track containment measures around the

globe—shows the progress that New Zealand has made on

bringing the coronavirus under control which has allowed

them to loosen restrictions that therefore leaves the country

better positioned for a prompt economic rebound. Similarly,

Germany’s restrictions remain relatively loose compared to

its peers which will likely result in an outperformance of the

country's economy within the euro-bloc. After a slow

response to the outbreak, the Oxford index suggests that

restrictions in Mexico are among the strictest across major

economies, behind China which recently re-imposed some

measures owing to an outbreak in Beijing.

5


-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

US m. vehicles & eq.US ex mveCanada m. vehicles & eq.Canada ex mve

Source: CN, AAR, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada and US Rail Merchandise Shipments

y/y % change in carloads(Last: Jul 4)

Rail Shipments

• Weekly rail shipments data shows that

demand for motor vehicles and equipment in

North America has recovered above year-

ago levels—albeit from a low base—while

shipments of other goods remain depressed

and have stalled around 10-20% below last

year’s levels.

US Steel Production

• Weekly US steel production data suggests

that activity in the manufacturing and

construction sectors has not yet significantly

improved for steel mills to ramp up

production—which stands around a third

lower than at this point last year.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

• Chinese industrial output appears to have

recovered quickly, but possibly stalled, as

steel inventory levels in the country are

depleted from record-highs as reflected by

weekly Shanghai storage data for both

traders and steel mills. Steel mill inventories

are nearly at ‘normal’ levels.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Source: Antaike, Mysteel, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Shanghai Steel Inventories

mn tonnes(Last: Jul 10)

2020traders

(LHS)

2019traders

(LHS)

mn tonnes(Last: Jul 10)

2020steel mills

(RHS)

2019steel mills

(RHS)1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Source: AISI, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

US Steel Production

mn short tonnes(Last: Jul 10)

2020

2019

Germany Truck Mileage Index

• Daily truck mileage data for Germany—a

close indicator of industrial production—

showed a sharp rebound in economic activity

in Europe’s largest economy before

retreating in the past week. As of July 6,

miles traveled by trucks in Germany were

down by around 4% when compared to the

same period in 2019. This series and other

data again point to the German economy

recovering at a fast pace as lockdown

measures are lifted.

Retail Traffic

• ShopperTrak and Prodco retail foot traffic

data show that retail activity has picked up

quickly in France and Germany to almost

match the decline in Hong Kong on a year-on

-year basis following the reopening of non-

essential businesses. Retail sales in the UK

remain nevertheless depressed after a

rebound in the series with retailers in

England allowed to reopen on June 15th.

Foot traffic in the US is still about 50% below

baseline for three straight weeks as

contagion concerns curb shopping attitudes.

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

01/20 03/20 05/20 07/20

UK

France

Germany

Hong Kong

US

Source: Shopper Trak, Prodco Analytics,Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Retail Foot Traffic

y/y % change(Last: w eek of Jun 29 or Jul 6)

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Destatis, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Germany Truck Mileage Index

y/y % change(Last: Jul 6)

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

10/19 12/19 02/20 04/20 06/20

Source: Bundesbank, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Bundesbank Weekly Activity Index

q/q % implied change in real GDP(Last: Jul 12)

Bundesbank Activity Index

• The Bundesbank’s high-frequency economic

activity index estimates that the German

economy was contracting at a rate of around

2.7% on a 3m/3m basis, up from –6.7% four

weeks ago, reflecting the increase in activity

in the country’s industrial and services

sectors.

6


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20

Source: Flight Radar, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Flight Radar TrackedCommercial Flights Globally

000s per day(Last: Jul 13)

7DMA(Latest = 55% of Jan 31)

TSA Checkpoint Throughput

• Daily US TSA shows that traffic through US

airports remains heavily subdued at close to

a quarter when compared to 2019. As

domestic and international restrictions are

lifted we should see a more important pick-

up in travel activity.

Flight Radar Commercial Flights

• Daily flights data from Flight Radar points to

an unsurprising massive decline in air travel

(about 45% lower compared to early-2020)

owing to travel bans and other strict

restrictions on domestic and international

travel. As some countries eradicate (or

sharply limit the spread of the virus) some

travel will resume between ‘COVID-free’

nations.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Source: TSA, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

TSA Checkpoint Travelers

000s passengers(Last: Jul 13)

2020 7-dma(Latest = 27% of 2019)

2019 7-dma

-120

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

GermanyMexicoUKAustraliaCanadaUS

Source: Opentable, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

y/y% change(Last: Jul 12)

OpenTable Restaurant Visits

• Daily OpenTable restaurant foot traffic data

points to a solid rebound in restaurant visits

in Germany (pent-up demand) after

governments allowed these businesses to

reopen—under certain conditions. The

relaxation of measures in some US states

and Canadian provinces, as well as the UK,

has also marginally begun to feed into the

data. An increase in cases in Australia has

led to the re-imposition of lockdown

measures in Victoria and a temporary sharp

decline in restaurant visits.

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline

Source: Apple, Scotiabank FICC Strategy.

Canada Apple Mobility Trends

routing requests, 7-dma(Last: Jul 12)

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


US Apple Mobility Trends


0

25

50

75

100

125

150

01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20

Driving

Walking

Transit

Baseline


Germany Apple Mobility Trends


Apple Mobility Trends

• Daily Apple data tracking Apple Maps routing requests shows that driving and walking mobility in Canada, the US, and Germany now exceeds

their respective baseline levels of mid-January. However, only in Germany has there been a significant increase in transit usage that points to a

faster return to economic normality than in North America as lockdown measures are lifted; see Oxford U’s lockdown stringency index that shows

Germany’s restrictions are now significantly more relaxed than in most of its peers.

7


Dallas Fed State Mobility and Engagement Index, 7-day ma (Last: July 4)

Source: Dallas Fed, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is Jan 9, Jan-Feb avg. = 0 (difference from baseline).

WA (-35)

OR (-32)

CA (-49)

ID (-24)

NV (-37)

UT (-30)

AZ (-44)

MT (-25)

WY (-19)

CO (-32)

NM (-34)

ND (-32)

SD (-28)

NE (-39)

KS (-40)

OK (-35)

TX (-58)

MN (-48)

IA (-38)

MO (-37)

AR (-38)

LA (-40)

WI (-41)

IL (-48)

KY (-36)

TN (-35)

MS (-40)

MI (-31)

IN (-33)

OH (-34)

WV (-24)

NC (-34)

AL (-39)

PA (-37)

VA (-44)

SC (-32)

GA (-39)

NY (-52)

NJ (-60)

MD (-53)

DC (-48)

FL (-46)

VT (-39)

MA (-51)

CT (-54)

DE (-43)

ME (-31)

NH (-45)

RI (-48)

HI (-48)

AK (-24)

ALL (-43)

8


New Confirmed COVID-19 Cases by US State and Canadian Province, 7-day ma (Last : Jul 13)

Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank FICC Strategy. First data point is March 3.

WA

OR

CA

HI

ID

NV

UT

AZ

MT

CO

NM

ND

SD

NE

KS

OK

TX

MN

IA

MO

AR

LA

KY

TN

MS

OH PA

VA

SC

GA

MD

NJ

NY MA

VT

CT

DE

NH

ME

RIWY

WV

NC

AL

DC

MI

IN

IL

WI

FL

BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS

NLPE

AK

9


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communication and has not been prepared by a member of the research department of Scotiabank, it is solely for the use of sophisticated institutional investors, and this

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al corporate and investment banking and capital markets businesses of The Bank of Nova Scotia and certain of its affiliates in the countries where they operate, including,

Scotia Capital Inc. and Scotia Capital (USA) Inc., Scotiabank Europe plc, Scotiabank (Ireland) Limited - all members of the Scotia-bank Group and authorized users of the

mark. The Bank of Nova Scotia is incorporated in Canada with limited liability. Scotia Capital Inc. is a member of the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Scotia Capital

(USA) Inc. is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and is a member of FINRA, NYSE, NFA and SIPC. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized and regulated by the Office

of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions in Canada. The Bank of Nova Scotia is authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and subject to regulation by the

Financial Conduct Authority and limited regulation by the Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of The Bank of Nova Scotia's regulation by the Prudential

Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Scotiabank Europe plc is authorized by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct

Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.

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