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Air: Climate and Pollution

Global Insolation Budget

Weather, Climate, Winds, Rain• Changes in solar radiation are responsible

for many important environmental factors, including El Niño.

• Review them…

Solar Radiation• Visible light passes through atmosphere undiminished.• Ultraviolet light is absorbed by ozone in the stratosphere.• Infrared radiation is absorbed by carbon dioxide and water

in the troposphere.• Energy reemitted by the earth is mainly infrared radiation

(heat).– Heat is absorbed in the lower atmosphere, trapping it close to the

earth’s surface.• Greenhouse Effect

– It is bad thing…?– No, But…Increasing atmospheric CO2 due to human

activities appears to be causing an increase in the Greenhouse Effect…global warming.

Air Pollution and Climate Change

Greenhouse Gases

2

The link between $ and GHGor is there?

?

Growth Trends

How to factor population size, exports, etc?

California’s GHG Emissions

But this is not the whole story…

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• States vs.Nations

From Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)- 2002

The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide in 2005 exceeds by far the naturalrange over the last 650,000 years (180 to 300 ppm) as determined from ice cores.

IPCC- 2007

• What we put in the atmosphere now will last for ~50 years.

• Think about that, what does that mean?

• Changes to the Ocean will last ~600 years…

• What is our collective “worry time”?

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Global Warming is a FACTFACTThe Problem: what is natural and what is us?

The Earth naturally goes through warming and cooling periods,which makes it very difficult to understand what is happening now.

Vostok Ice Cores

n=1

`The balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human

influence on global climate '

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(United Nations), Second Assessment Report, 1996

`There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed

overthe last 50 years is attributable to

human activity'

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(United Nations), Third Assessment Report, 2001

‘Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from

observations of increases inglobal average air and ocean

temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global

mean sea level’- from the effects of human activities.

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(United Nations), Fourth Assessment Report, 2007

So what, why bother?

• Even small changes in global temperature have large effects on the planet, and our species.

• Increased Rain/Drought, Disease, Storms, etc…

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Dramatic Changes: An Ice-free Arctic? 1979-2003:

Progressive Loss of Arctic Ice

2005 lowest ice in recorded history

Until Sept 2007, when it was even lower

video

An Ice-free Arctic?

2010 - 2030 2040 - 2060 2070 - 2090

Source: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004

Antarctic Ice Shelf

Why do we care more about ice shelves and glaciers with respect to sea level rise?

Glacier Retreat

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Sea Level Rise

Not from Sea Ice melt!

From thermal expansion and melting of land-based ice

Florida, 1 meter change The Acid Ocean• While we worry over atmospheric

climate change, the real crisis of the 21st century will probably be in the Ocean.

• The battlefield of that crisis is the Pacific, and Monterey Bay is Ground Zero.

• What will be the ecology of the acid ocean? How will the food chain be altered? What management practices will need to be changed?

6.8 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2

Dep

th (m

)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Central PacificWestern PacificNorth PacificAntarctic PacificEastern Pacific

Ocean Acidification

Additional stresses for animals that are already food-limited –

“Living on the edge”

The oceans absorb most of our CO2 emissions

When CO2 dissolves into the water it form Carbonic Acid.

pH variation in the Pacific Ocean

Data from Jim Barry, MBARI

Sinking O

rganic Debris

Microbial R

emineralization

Primary P

roducers

Zooplankton food web Upper Trophic levels

Seafloor community

Present Ocean Food Web – Diverse, Complex, Productive

What are the expected effects of An acidified Ocean?

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Sinking O

rganic Debris

Future Ocean Food Web – Loss of biodiversity, low productivity, dominated by microbial recycling?

Microbial R

emineralization

Primary P

roducers

Zooplankton food web Upper Trophic levels

Seafloor community

Simplified Food Web,Increased Microbial Dominance

! Holy Crap !

• What can we do about it all?!

Moving from unknown…to fear of known…to action.

20552005

14

7

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

19550

Currently

projected path

Flat path

Historicalemissions

1.9

2105

14 GtC/y

7 GtC/y

Seven “wedges”

Wedges

O

Source: Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi

What can we do about it?!?

Need to reduce 8 wedges worth by 2054 to hold steady

What is worth 1 GT of CO2

1. Efficient vehicles − increase fuel economy from 30 to 60 mpg for 2 billion vehicles

2. Reduce use of vehicles − improve urban design to reduce miles driven from 10,000 to 5,000 miles per year for 2 billion vehicles

3. Efficient buildings − reduce energy consumption by 25%4. Improve efficiency of coal plants from today's 40% to 60%5. Replace 1,400 gigawatts of coal power plants with natural gas6. Capture and store carbon emitted from 800 gigawatts of new coal plants7. Capture and reuse hydrogen created by #6 above8. Capture and store carbon from coal to syn fuels conversion at 30 million

barrels per day (4,800,000 m³/d)9. Displace 700 gigawatts of coal power with nuclear10. Add 2 million 1 megawatt windmills (50 times current capacity)11. Displace 700 gigawatts of coal with 2,000 gigawatts (peak) solar power (700

times current capacity)12. Produce hydrogen fuel from 4 million 1 megawatt windmills13. Use biomass to make fuel to displace oil (100 times current capacity)14. Stop de-forestation and re-establish 300 million hectares of new tree

plantations15. Conservation tillage − apply to all crop land (10 times current usage)

Energy Efficiency

Coal-based Synfuels with CCS

Wind power and others

Reforestation

Mass transit

StabilizationTriangle

2004 20547 GtC/y

14 GtC/y

Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges

Carbon Capture & Storage

Adapted from:

Robert Socolw, www.princeton.edu/~cmi

Biofuels

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“None of the options is a pipe dream or an unproven idea. Today, one can buy electricity from a wind turbine, PV array, gas turbine, or nuclear power plant. One can buy hydrogen produced with the chemistry of carbon capture, biofuel to power one’s car, and hundreds of devices that improve energy efficiency. One can visit tropical forests where clear-cutting has ceased, farms practicing conservation tillage, and facilities that inject carbon into geologic reservoirs. Every one of these options is already implemented at an industrial scale and could be scaled up further over 50 years to provide at least one wedge.”

Pacala and Socolow, Science 2004

Climate Competitiveness with the Auto Industry

Source: World Resources Institute and Sustainable Asset Management

Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions Standards around the World

0

-0.045

-1.1

- 0.05

0.01

0.055

2.1

0.07

0.01

0.01

1.0

0.02

0%Particulate Matter

82%Non-Methane Organic Cmpd

52%Carbon Monoxide71%Oxides of Nitrogen

% changeDifference400h350

$ -459

-1.15

+6

+2

+10

1988

5.00

20

23

18

1529

3.85

26

25

28

23%Estimated Annual Fuel Cost:($ dollars)

23%Fuel Consumption:(gallons per 100 miles)

30%Combined Fuel Economy:(miles per gallon)

9%Highway Fuel Economy:(miles per gallon)

55%City Fuel Economy:(miles per gallon)

-2.1

-3.14

9.17

4.13

7.07

0.99

23%Greenhouse Gases Emitted:(tons per year)

76%Smog-forming Pollution:(pounds per year)

2007 Lexus 350 vs. Lexus 400h Hybrid

Green Vehicle Guidewww.epa.gov

What good is a Hybrid?

The Ozone Hole• Ozone (O3) absorbs UV radiation, ‘Sunscreen’ for living things• The ozone “hole” is an area with 50% less ozone than normal• Stratospheric ozone absorbs UV radiation = Good• Tropospheric ozone = bad Aerosols/Smog! (photochemical

pollution)

Video

•CFCs: chlorofluorocarbons: Cl lasts 40-100 years in the stratosphere and each Cl atom can break down 100,000 ozone molecules•Halons: Carbon/Bromine/Fluorine-

Bromine- 40x as destructive as Cl.•Ozone Hole over Antarctica is the size of Canada, USA, and Mexico combined.

International Climate Negotiations

• Kyoto Protocol (1997)– 160 nations agreed to roll back carbon dioxide,

methane, and nitrous oxide emissions about 5% below their 1990 levels by 2012.

• Sets different limits for different countries, depending on prior output.

– Developing countries exempted.

• US was instrumental in its construction but did not approve

• Why??• Expires in 2012, and international talks began in

May 2007 on a future treaty to succeed the current one

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CLEAN AIR LEGISLATION

• Clean Air Act (1963) - First national air pollution control.

• Clean Air Act (1970) rewrote original Act.– Identified critical pollutants.– Established ambient air quality standards.

• Primary Standards - Human health• Secondary Standards - Materials, environment,

aesthetic and comfort.

Clean Air Act

• Revision (1990) - Included provision for:– Acid Rain– Urban Smog– Toxic Air Pollutants– Ozone Protection– Marketing Pollution Rights– Fugitive emissions of volatile organics– Ambient ozone, soot, and dust– NOx emissions

CURRENT AND FUTURE CONDITIONS

• In the United States, air quality has improved dramatically in the last decade in terms of major large-volume pollutants.– Cities where pollution is largely from traffic still have

serious air quality problems.

• Major metropolitan areas of many developing countries are growing at explosive rates, and environmental quality is very poor.