IRD$Seminar$

$Global&Issues&&

in&Interna/onal&Development$Andrew$Speedy$–$Visi4ng$Professor,$School$of$Agriculture$

$$$

Wednesday29$Oct$20134$

The$Blue$Marble$

Inco

me

per P

erso

n of

the

Wor

ld

Life Expectancy of the World

Liechtenstein

Antigua&Barbuda

Dominica

Palau

NauruTuvalu

Seychelles

St. Kitts& Nevis

AndorraSan Marino

Monaco

Andorra

St.LuciaPanama

Sao Tomeand Principe

Tonga

Samoa

Grenada

Brunei

Comoros

Djibouti

Equatorial Guinea

Gabon

Luxembourg

Namibia

Swaziland

Timor-Leste

Micronesia

Trinidad and Tobago

Albania

Bhutan

Kiribati

Kosovo

Cyprus

Maldives

Slovenia

Suriname

Belize

Mauritius

Bahamas

Malta

Vanuatu

Montenegro

Estonia

Gambia

Guinea-BissauLesotho

Botswana

Mongolia

Oman

Qatar

Iceland

Barbados

BahrainCapeVerde

Latvia

SolomonIslands

Macedonia

Fiji

Guyana

Jamaica

St.Vincentand G.

Armenia

Lithuania

Uruguay

Mauritania

Moldova

Kuwait

Congo, Rep.Liberia

Bosnia and H. Croatia

Lebanon

Israel

Costa Rica

Puerto Rico

New Zealand

Georgia

Central African Rep.

SwedenSingapore

Norway

Ireland

Finland

Austria

Turkmenistan

Slovak Rep.

Kyrgyzstan

Eritrea

DenmarkTaiwan

Papua New Guinea

Hong Kong

United Arab Emirates

South Sudan

Switzerland

Hungary

BelarusAzerbaijan

Dom.R.

Bulgaria

Serbia

Burundi

LibyaNicaragua

Palestine

Sierra Leone

Laos

Benin

Guinea

Somalia

Tajikistan

Togo

El Salvador

Honduras ParaguayJordan

Poland

Bolivia

Haiti

Czech Rep.

Portugal

Tunisia

Rwanda

GreeceBelgiumCuba

Chad

Senegal

Zimbabwe

Zambia

Cambodia

Ecuador

Guatemala

BurkinaFaso

MalawiNiger

Mali

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

Chile

Romania

Cameroon

Sri Lanka

Cote d'Ivoire

Angola

Madagascar

Syria

Australia

Mozambique

Yemen

North Korea

Afghanistan

Ghana

Nepal

Sudan

SaudiArabia

PeruVenezuela

Malaysia

Morocco

Uzbekistan

Italy

Spain

UK Germany

Canada

France

South Korea

Philippines

Vietnam

Ethiopia

Egypt

IranTurkey

Dem. Rep. Congo

Thailand

South Africa

Myanmar

Colombia

Ukraine

Tanzania

Kenya

Argentina

Algeria

Iraq

Uganda

ChinaBangladesh

Indonesia

Pakistan

USA

Russia

Brazil

Nigeria

Japan

Mexico

India

2011 data for all 193 UN Members and for Hong Kong, Kosovo, Palestine, Puerto Rico and Taiwan.

Documentation andpdf version for print at:

3 orless

10100 1000

millions

Colour by region

Size by population

If you want to see more data visit:

www.gapminder.org

Free to copy, share and remix, but attribute to

Gapminder Foundation.

Version 11 September 2012

map

layo

ut b

y Pao

lo Fa

uson

e

gapminder.org/downloads/world-pdf

GAPMINDER WORLD 2012Mapping the Wealth and Health of Nations

Healthy

Poor Rich

Sick

50

500 1 000 2 000 20 0005 000 10 000 50 000

60

70

80

55

65

75

income per person in US Dollars (GDP/capita, PPP$ inflation adjusted, log scale)

life

exp

ecta

ncy

in ye

ars

Hans&Rosling&

Key$Data$

•  Land$15$billion$ha$–$Water$36$billion$ha$

•  Agricultural$land$5$billion$ha$

•  Global$popula4on$7$billion$

•  Urban$53.1$percent$S$Rural$46.9$percent$

Key$Data$

•  Global$popula4on$7$billion$

•  800$million$underfed$–$1$.1$billion$overfed$

•  Poor$were$underfed$–$now$poor$badly$nourished$

•  Small$farmers$50%,$landless$20%,$urban$poor$

20%,$herders/pastoralists/fishers$10%$

Key$Data$

•  Global$popula4on$7$billion$

•  World$income:$richest$fiZh74%,$second$14.6%,$

third$6.3%,$fourth$3.5%,$poorest$fiZh1.5%$$

Distribu4on$between$and$within$countries$

•  Gini$coefficient$0.25$(Scandinavia)$to$0.66$(S$

Africa)$

Key$Data$

•  Global$popula4on$7$billion$

•  Atmospheric$CO2$has$passed$400$ppm$

•  More$extreme$events$

•  Crop$yields$will$be$affected$

•  Sea$level$will$rise$

World$Popula4on$

0$

1,000,000$

2,000,000$

3,000,000$

4,000,000$

5,000,000$

6,000,000$

Oceania$ Europe$ Americas$ Africa$ Asia$

1961$

2014$

2050$

Regional$popula4on$change$

World$Resources$Ins4tute$

Land$use:$Green$areas$are$used$for$growing$crops,$brown$areas$are$used$for$raising$animals.$

How$to$double$your$crop$yield$•  Gene4c$improvement$–$biotechnology$S$GM$•  Seed$quality$•  Water$/$irriga4on$•  Fer4lizer$•  Pest$and$disease$control$•  Integrated$pest$management$IPM$•  Precision$agriculture$•  Post$harvest$management$(reduced$losses)$•  Added$value$

How$to$make$your$pig$(or$other)$grow$twice$as$fast$$(or$your$cow$produce$more$milk)$

•  Gene4cs$•  A.I.$•  Reproduc4on$•  Balanced$nutri4on$•  Animal$health$

Livestock$diseases$

•  Zoono4c$diseases$–  Food$borne$diseases$–  Cistercercosis$

•  Avian$influenza$•  Newcastle$disease$•  CSF,$ASF$and$PRRS$•  FootSandSMouth$Disease$FMD$•  Hemorrhagic$sep4caemia$•  East$Cost$Fever$

Global$livestock$trends$•  Global$livestock$produc4on$has$increased$by$more$than$60$percent$in$the$

last$20$years$(from$187$to$302$million$tonnes)*$to$meet$growing$demand;$half$of$this$is$due$to$the$increase$in$the$human$popula4on$and$the$rest$a$result$of$increasing$affluence$in$middleSincome$developing$countries$(Speedy,$2003).$$

•  From$1992S2012,$meat$produc4on$and$consump4on$in$China$has$trebled$in$all$sub$sectors$(beef,$mumon$and$poultry)$except$pig$meat,$which$has$doubled.$Similar$trends$are$seen$in$SE$Asia$with$increases$in$poultry$and$pig$meat$of$2.35$and$2.56$4mes$respec4vely.$Milk$produc4on$is$also$rising$rapidly$in$China,$with$a$5.29$4mes$increase$in$20$years$(admimedly$from$a$low$base),$and$China$now$produces$more$than$5$per$cent$of$global$milk$supplies.$$

•  India$has$seen$a$rise$of$more$than$four$4mes$in$poultry$produc4on.$In$the$same$period$in$India,$egg$produc4on$is$also$up$2.85$4mes$and$milk,$from$an$already$high$level,$has$more$than$doubled$(now$16.6$percent$of$World$milk).$$In$S$America,$meat$produc4on$has$doubled,$more$or$less$evenly$across$all$sectors.$

*The$equivalent$rise$in$fish$and$seafood$supplies$is$85%$(from$70$to$130$million$tonnes).$Regional$trends$vary.$

Climate$change$

hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$

hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$

hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$

hmp://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html$

World$at$Night$

POVERTY&

“The%increasing%urban/rural%divide%is%the%most%cri6cal%aspect%of%socio/economic%development%in%many%countries.%Besides%affec6ng%the%achievement%of%poverty%reduc6on%targets%and%other%development%goals,%a%solu6on%to%this%income%disparity%is%important%for%the%sustainability%of%growth%and%social%stability.”%

Addressing$inequality$

Gini$coefficent$–$World$map$

Stages$of$development$

•  Agriculture,$fishing$and$pastoralist$society$•  Mining$and$export$commodity$based$•  Low$value$industry$$•  High$value$industry$•  Technology$based$•  Consumer$society$

Ways$out$of$poverty$(small$farmers)$

•  Technology$– Apply$exis4ng$technology$– New$technology$–$biotech,$GM,$chemical,$precision$ag$

•  Microfinance$(bemer:$savings$schemes)$•  Access$to$markets$•  Contract$farming$•  Value$chain$approach$(private$sector$led)$•  Exit$strategy$

MICROCREDIT$INTEREST$RATES$VARY$STRONGLY$BETWEEN$COUNTRIES$$Global$differences$in$microcredit$interest$rates$are$drama4c.$The$global$average$is$about$35$percent,$but$the$average$in$Uzbekistan$is$above$80$

percent,$and$in$Sri$Lanka$it$is$around$17$percent$$

Ways$out$of$poverty$(small$farmers)$

•  Diversifica4on$– Fruit$and$veg$– Aquaculture$– Non$farm$enterprises$– AgroStourism$

•  Internal$migra4on$(urban$industries)$•  Interna4onal$migra4on$

“Restructuring”$

•  Larger$farms$•  Land$concessions$•  Support$for$private$sector$•  Foreign$investment$•  Export$growth$•  Rural$–$urban$shiZ$

Ways$out$of$poverty$(small$farmers)$

•  Trade&•  (Many$countries$net$importers)$•  Par4cipa4on?$•  Export$opportuni4es?$•  Free$trade$(WTO)?$•  Regional$trade$agreements?$•  Interna4onal$compliance$(SPS)?$•  Protec4onism$

GDP$Growth$

•  China$8%$•  India$7%$•  Vietnam$5%$•  Cambodia$6%$–  But….$

•  ICOR$(Incremental$Capital$Output$Ra4on)$•  Real$estate$•  Low$tech$industry$•  Decent$work?$

GDP$growth$2009S13$Country$ 2009S13$China$ 8.9$India$ 7.0$Kazakhstan$ 5.4$Kenya$ 4.4$Cambodia$ 5.6$Lao$PDR$ 8.1$Sri$Lanka$ 6.7$Mozambique$ 7.0$Nigeria$ 5.9$Vietnam$ 5.7$

US,$UK,$Japan$<1$percent)$

Small$is$not$beau4ful$

•  Pro$poor$rural$development$?$•  Improve$livelihoods$on$1S2$ha$?$•  Par4cipa4on$in$value$chain$?$•  Public$private$partnership$?$•  Migra4on$•  Remimances$•  Educa4on,$health,$consump4on$

Public$Private$Partnerships$

•  Corporate$social$responsibility$•  Research$and$development$•  Seeds,$fer4lizers,$chemicals$(distribu4on)$•  Access$to$markets$(traders,$contracts)$•  Value$chain$approach$•  Government$regula4on$

Issues$

•  Interna4onal$aid$(dependence)$•  Educa4on$(low$tech)$•  Government$monopoly$•  State$owned$enterprises$•  High$interest$rates$•  Corrup4on$•  Trans$na4onal$companies$

World$Map$Index$of$percep4on$of$corrup4on$

Na4onal$Economy$

Market$Economy$

Public$Sector$

Government$

Manufacturing$ Service$Sector$

Agriculture$(Farmers)$

Banks$

Real$Estate$

Exports$

Credit$

Consumers$

Tax$

Labour$

Global$Companies$

Global$Finance$Global$Economy$

All%bubbles%can%expand,%contract%or%burst%

Market$Economy$

Public$Sector$

Government$

Manufacturing$ Service$Sector$

Agriculture$(Farmers)$

Banks$

Real$Estate$

Exports$

Credit$

Outsourcing$

Bonds$$$$$$Hedge$funds$$$$$$Leveraging$$$$$Futures$$$$$$Deriva4ves$$

Consumers$

Tax$

Labour$

What’s$Wrong$with$the$World?$

•  Conflict$•  Food$crisis$•  Economic$crisis$•  Poli4cal$crisis$•  Natural$disasters$•  Climate$Change$

UN$Task$Team$Thema4c$Think$Pieces$•  Emerging$development$challenges$for$the$postS2015$$•  Addressing$inequali4es:$The$heart$of$the$postS2015$agenda$and$the$future$we$want$for$all$•  Peace$and$security$•  Popula4on$dynamics$•  Social$protec4on:$A$development$priority$in$the$postS2015$UN$development$agenda$•  Building$on$the$MDGs$to$bring$sustainable$development$to$the$postS2015$development$agenda$•  Ending$hunger$and$malnutri4on$and$ensuring$food$and$nutri4on$security$•  Governance$and$development$•  Health$in$the$postS2015$development$agenda$•  Disaster$risk$and$resilience$•  Educa4on$and$skills$for$inclusive$and$sustainable$development$beyond$2015$•  UN$development$agenda:$Employment$•  Sustainable$urbaniza4on$•  Science,$technology$and$innova4on$and$intellectual$property$rights:$The$vision$for$development$•  Macroeconomic$stability,$inclusive$growth$and$employment$•  Migra4on$and$human$mobility$•  Culture:$a$driver$and$an$enabler$of$sustainable$development$•  Towards$freedom$from$fear$and$want:$Human$rights$in$the$postS2015$agenda$•  Countries$with$special$needs$$