Global Land Use and Food in a Finite world

January 12th 2012 | Ton Manders

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Global Land Use and Food in a Finite world

Workshop Transatlantic Academy, Washington, DC


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Foodsecurity Competing claims on

land Resource efficiency Smart policies


Global Land use and Food in a Finite World

3



4

Number of hungry people (FAO)



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More factors are key



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Complex linkages



77



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Competing claims in 1970 and 2010

Crop area12.9%

grazing area26.1%

forest area28.4%

built up area0.5%

other natural area

32.2%

Crop area10.5%

grazing area24.4%

forest area31.6%

built up area0.2%

other natural area

33.3%



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Potential of cropland expansion



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Biodiversity in 1970 and 2010



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Global agricultural area will level off

Huge uncertainties – climate– diet– yield

1980 2000 2020 20400

20

40

60

80

100

Grey area indicates 10-90th percentileliterature range

FAO/IMAGE IAASTD MEA

Baseline

Agric

ultu

ral a

rea

(Mkm

2 )

1980 2000 2020 20400

20

40

60

80

100

Nat

ural

are

a (M

km2 )



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Regional differences, change in crop area

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

OEC

D

Braz

il

Sout

h A

fric

a

Russ

ia

Indi

a

Chin

a

Indo

nesi

a

Rest

of

the

Wor

ld

Glo

bal

2010 = 100% 2020 2030 2040 2050



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Pressures on biodiversity up to 2050



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The case of bioenergy Important role in mitigation

– However indirect emissions (fertilizer, transport, production)

Compete with other land use – Food prices– Biodiversity loss

1. Second generation bioenergy2. Sustainability criteria3. High yield versus extensive production4. Cascading



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Competing goals

Agriculture drives land use change

Land use change drives biodiversity loss



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Effects and points of intervention



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Effficiency forms a key factor in preserving biodiversity, while providing sufficient food for all

In order to provide sufficient food for all, more agricultural production is needed and

to meet the biodiversity goal, no further expansion of agricultural area allowed.

Four major issues– reduction of consumption– global management of land– growth of agricultural yields– the right price of food



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19 28 November 2011EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context19



202020



21 28 November 2011EU Resource Efficiency Perspectives in a Global Context21

Loss of MSA reduced by enhanced RE; but not stopped#;

Additonal losses (until 2050!) in some regions due to bio-energy for climate mitigation



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Smart policies - general

No easy solutions– Age old problem of the commons– Major barriers

Not one size fits all – e.g. high yield versus extensive

Beware of trade-offs and look for synergy– e.g. bioenergy

Resource efficiency can bring you a long way but more is needed– Yield (water, fertilizer, management, seeds)

Reduce and reuse waste Lifestyle changes have a huge potential



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Major barriers to attain goals

Food security

Lack of safety nets and redistributive policiesEconomic growth performances in main food insecure regionsAppropriate entitlements of domestic farmers to access land and water

Agricultural productionPerverse subsidiesLack of knowledge

Terrestrial biodiversity

Indirect drivers difficult to influenceLimited knowledgeLimited awarenessIneffective management of protected areas



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Smart policies - general

No easy solutions– Age old problem of the commons– Major barriers

Not one size fits all – e.g. high yield versus extensive

Beware of trade-offs and look for synergy– e.g. bioenergy

Resource efficiency can bring you a long way but more is needed– Yield (water, fertilizer, management, seeds)

Reduce and reuse waste Lifestyle changes have a huge potential



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Policy measuresproper prices – proper governments

Correct market failures– property rights, waterpricing, valuing biodiversity

Correct government failures– perverse subsidies, trade barriers

Improve access to knowledge and markets– e.g. infrastructure

Use dynamic society



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Market access in agricultural areas



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Policy measuresproper prices – proper governments

Correct market failures– property rights, waterpricing, valuing biodiversity

Correct government failures– perverse subsidies, trade barriers

Improve access to knowledge and markets– e.g. infrastructure

Use dynamic society

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Global Land Use and Food in a Finite world

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