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Global Logistics Outlook David Wilson, UPS Marketing Logistics, Trade, and Transportation Symposium February 27th, 2014
Global Logistics Outlook
David Wilson, UPS Marketing
Logistics, Trade, and Transportation SymposiumFebruary 27th, 2014
Global Outlook
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Top 13 Export Lanes Represent 80% of the World’s Export Market
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Almost half of the top origins are in APAC
High Tech makes up over 40% of the oppty from these origins followed by Industrial and Automotive (32%)
Source: Seabury
Top 22 Import Lanes Represent 80% of the World’s Import Market
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Source: Seabury
The import market is more fragmented with 22 countries driving 80% of the world’s imports
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Market by SegmentHigh Tech, Industrial and Automotive and Retail are forecasted to continue to be the major segments for the next several years
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Middle East and Africa (ME&A)
Small Package (SP) growth in ME&A is being driven by trade with Asia, which has nearly doubled in the last 5 years
This is more dramatic for resource-rich countries in particular▫ Saudi Arabia’s trade
with Asia has grown nearly 600% over the last six years and China is now the country’s largest small package trade partner
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Europe
MENA
North Ameri
ca Asia SSA
Latin Ameri
ca (10,000,000)
- 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000
ME&A Overall Small Package Trade Volume
2006 2011
Wei
ght (
met
ric to
ns)
84%
China Growth
High Tech accounts for over 40 percent of ME&A’s SP imports from China ▫ Of these, over 80 percent
are mobile phones or laptops
Demographics and government spending are driving the expansion of a consumer culture
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20062008
20102012
20142016
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000 Top Small Package Importers from China
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates
Turkey
Israel
South Africa
Iran
Nigeria
Kuwait
Egypt
Wei
ght (
in m
etric
tons
)
CAGR of 39%
22%
12%13%12%
Source: Seabury
Most intra-region Small Package trade (>60%) is concentrated within the Gulf countries
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South Africa to Zambia, Zimbabwe,DRC, Mozambique,
1.2K tons
Intra-Gulf, 9.6K tons
North Africa
West AfricaEast Africa
Levant
Gulf
SouthernAfrica
Turkey to Levant & Gulf, 1.5K tons
Top origins for intra-regional trade: UAE, 49% South Africa, 13% Turkey, 10%
Source: Seabury
Latin America
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4%3.1%
85.4M26.2M
3.8%3.1%43.6M
3.6%
0.27M
3.5%
7.2%
2.4M
8.7%5.9%
42.8M
6.8%6.3%
Inter-regional Trade
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Source: Seabury
Legend 2012-2017 CAGR Total Weight (Kg) 2017
Key Points North America
remains Latin America’s dominant trade partner
Asia Pacific is expected to experience the strongest growth
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1m77Esk4Nk&list=PLxfC-I5NL73X3D9plZ7Fla0PE0QgG9xBb
U.S. Commercial Services PartnershipBeyond One Program and Gold Key Sponsorship
The Commercial Service provides solutions that position U.S. businesses for success in the global marketplace
Beyond One Partnership with the USCS▫ Assist UPS exporters that currently ship to one or a few international
markets by building upon their current experience in international trade; these companies are more likely to have already developed exportable goods that are competitive overseas
International Offices• Market entry counseling• Market research• Sector expertise• Cultural issues and business protocol• Matchmaking (distributors and buyers)• Due diligence on foreign companies• Commercial diplomacy• Trade missions/Trade shows
Domestic Offices• Client needs assessment • Market identification• Sector expertise• Strategic export planning• Legal and regulatory
requirements• Export mechanics
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JzyFaXDpU_M&list=PLxfC-I5NL73X3D9plZ7Fla0PE0QgG9xBb
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Mississippi Global Trade
Exports Support Jobs for American Workers 2013 total exports from Mississippi - $2.3T
13.6% of all manufacturing workers depended on exporting
Exports Sustain Thousands of Mississippi Businesses 2,056 companies exported from Mississippi locations
Of those, 1,569 (76.3%) were small and medium with fewer than 500 employees
Mississippi Depends on World Markets 2013 export shipments of merchandise totaled $12.4 billion
Panama: $2.2 billion / Canada: $2.0 billion / Mexico: $1.3 billion / China: $671 million / Netherlands: $483 million
Top Export Categories Petroleum, Coal Products, Chemicals, Transportation Equipment,
Computer & Electronic Products, and Paper
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8oHyk2kyI4
Emerging Middle Class - Changing Global Marketplace
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