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GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017...

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4 th July 2013 GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 Ioannis Thomas Theologitis Business Analyst
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Page 1: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

4th July 2013

GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK

Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017

Ioannis Thomas Theologitis

Business Analyst

Page 2: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW

PV Market Status and Evolution

Market Scenarios

PV Industry Status and Evolution

Greek Case

OUTLINE

OUTLINE

Page 2

Page 3: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

PV Market Status and Evolution

Page 3

Page 4: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Historical development of the PV market

Global PV market was stable in 2012

Page 4

Page 5: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW

More countries appeared on the map in 2012

Page 5

Global status

Page 6: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Historical development of the PV market

European market went down in 2012

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Page 7: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market segmentation in Europe

European variety

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Page 8: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market segmentation in Europe

Market segmentation in key European markets

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Page 9: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW

PV on rooftops increases in Europe (from 65% to 72% of the market in 2012 compared to 2011)

In absolute value in Europe,

• Residential market grew from 2.9 to 3.3 GW

• Commercial/ industrial declined from 7.6 to 5.2 GW

• Ground mounted declined from 5.7 to 4.5 GW

Globally, FiT still dominates

Traditional support schemes are still dominant (GC/Grants)

Self-consumption represents 10% of the market

Net-metering is negligeable

Purely competitive PV is hard to assess

Development drivers

Market Segmentation

Page 9

10% 2%

65%

4%

18%

1%

PV development drivers

Self-consumption

Net-metering

FIT

ROC/RPS

Grants

Competitive PV

Green C Green Certificates

Page 10: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Market Scenarios

Page 10

Page 11: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market forecasts for Europe

Business as usual vs Policy-driven scenarios for Europe

Page 11

Page 12: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Market forecasts for Europe

2020 targets for PV have been already achieved in Europe

Page 12

Page 13: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Global market development

2 scenarios for global PV market development until 2017

Page 13

Page 14: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW

Page 14

EU market development

Europe will dominate Roof-top market

Page 15: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Q2 2013

EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW GMO 2013-2017

Page 15

Global Market Outlook For Photovoltaics 2013-2017

www.epia.org

Page 16: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

PV Industry Status and Evolution

Page 16

Page 17: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW Industry Evolution

Page 17

Compound annual growth rate across PV value chain

Page 18: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Industry Evolution

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PV technology trends

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW

Page 19: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Greek Case

Page 19

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EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW

Greece

Page 20

Page 21: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW

Until August 2012 market was very robust. Since then the Greek market has been facing several attacks: reduction of the FiT, restrictions of licenses for medium-large projects and retroactive measures which have created uncertainty.

Support scheme:

• FiT with clear evolution in 2013

Administrative and legal barriers:

PV Project Development: share of administrative costs, duration and waiting time(source: PV GRID Project)

2013 and beyond

• Market will develop due to past committed projects. Adverse financial environment is limiting development of new projects. Residential PV is favoured over large scale PV plants. Licensing of new large projects frozen since August 2012, retroactive taxation adopted in Q4 2012, huge delays for producers’ payments.

Greece – Political Context

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Page 22: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

European Photovoltaic Industry Association

Renewable Energy House

Rue d’Arlon 63-67, 1040 Brussels - Belgium

T +32 (0)2 465 38 84 - F +32 (0)2 400 10 10

[email protected] - www.epia.org

www.epia.org

For more information or further details contact

Ioannis Thomas Theologitis [email protected]

EYΧΑΡΙΣΤΩ ΠΟΛΥ

ΓΙΑ ΤΗΝ ΠΡΟΣΟΧΗ ΣΑΣ

Page 23: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Back up slides

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Page 24: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Competitiveness of PV

Page 24

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4. Results: roadmap to dynamic PV parity

in 11 European countries Probability of achieving dynamic PV parity in the Residential sector in 11 EU countries

• 25 PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target Countries PV Parity Project

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

UK

PT

NL

IT-South

BE-W

BE-F

AT

IT-North

90% probability of PV grid parity

50% probability of PV grid parity

FR-South

FR-North

ES-South

ES-North

EL-South

DE-South

DE-North

CZ

EL-North

Page 26: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Roadmap to dynamic PV Parity in the residential

sector in the target countries

• 26 PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target Countries PV Parity Project

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Page 27: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

• 27

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

PV Competitiveness Roadmaps in the Target Countries PV PARITY Project

Roadmap to dynamic PV Parity in the commercial

sector in the target countries

Page 28: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Q2 2013

EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW

Page 28

PV Competitiveness in Europe is fragile

Hypothesis - Reasonably low WACC - Reasonnably Low PV System prices - Self-consumption (30%) - Resale of excess electricity at current

market prices - Etc.

And…

- Compensation of grid costs for self-

consumption!

2014

2014

2012

2015

2017

2016

2015

2014

2016

2019

2018

2019

2015

2018

2018

2020

2020

2017

2019

2020

France

Germany

ItalySpain

UK

Example in the residential sector

Favorable conditions (low WACC and prices)

Non-compensation of grid-costs

Non-compensation of taxes

Non-compensation of grid-costs and taxes

Source: « Connecting the Sun » – EPIA 2012

Page 29: GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK - Amazon S3...GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK Market and Industry Analysis 2012 - 2017 ... GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW PV Market Status and Evolution Market Scenarios PV

Q2 2013

EUROPEAN PV SUPPORT SCHEMES OVERVIEW

Page 29

Connecting the Sun Report

www.connectingthesun.eu

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Q2 2013

GLOBAL PV MARKET OVERVIEW

PV in buildings

Competitiveness in Europe ?

Page 30

Competitiveness of PV

Self-consumption must be allowed Taxes and grid costs compensation allowed as well Alternative grid financing

No additional grid connection requirements that

could reduce the revenues

Excess PV electricity can be sold on the electricity market

With electricity market prices that remain significant

Transition from an investors market to an energy-savings market quite uncertain

Road to full competitiveness is complex and dangerous


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