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Aluminum Anheuser-Busch plans to invest $175 million to construct a new aluminum bottle line at its facility in Jackson, Florida. The new line will increase the facility’s aluminum bottle production by 50% and will require a 140,000-square-foot expansion. The line is expected to be operational by Q1 2017 Thai Summit Kentucky Corp, a fabricator of automotive parts, announced plans to invest $110 million to build a new 220,000- square-foot stamping and assembly facility in Bardstown, Kentucky. The facility will produce stamped and welded aluminum assemblies for Ford’s truck plant in Louisville. The facility will employ 216 people and is expected to be completed by the end of 2016 Steel Nuco Steel Bar Technologies announced plans to invest $37 million to construct a 150,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art production facility at the Airport Industrial Park in Valparaiso, Indiana. The facility will process carbon, alloys and tool steels into flat, round and square steel bars. The project is expected to be completed by the first half of 2017 and will reach 50,000 tons of annual capacity by 2020 Reliance Steel announced that it has acquired Best Manufacturing Inc., a custom sheet metal fabricator based in Jonesboro, Arkansas, for an undisclosed consideration. Best Manufacturing provides precision fabrication services including laser cutting, shearing, CNC punching and CNC forming and rolling, among other services Steel Technologies announced plans to invest $6 million to expand its Woodstock, Ontario facility to meet the increased demand of lightweight materials including aluminum and advanced high-strength steel which are used in automotive applications. The scope of the investment includes the installation of new equipment and adding 64,000-square-feet to its existing 80,000-square- foot facility. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 2018 Specialty & Alloys Alcoa recently announced a new contract with Airbus to supply 3-D printed titanium components and engine pylon parts. Alcoa will manufacture the components at three of its recently expanded additive manufacturing facilities Whitehall, Michigan; Austin, Texas; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Copper, Lead and Zinc Bearing Bronze, an Ontario-based service center, announced plans to increase its reach into the growing and lucrative aerospace industry in the coming years. The Company believes that more than 50% of its revenue will be generated from landing gear components within five years. The aerospace market could boost the Company’s total sales by more than 20 percent to between $15 - $16 million per year. The growth will likely increase the Company’s copper rod purchasing Mining, Scrap and Materials U.S. nonferrous scrap markets are forging ahead after one of the most challenging quarters since 2008. According to delegates at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, sentiment is mixed among suppliers and consumers. Inbound scrap flows into dealers’ yards dropped significantly at the start of 2016, and suppliers estimated that nonferrous flows have fallen approximately 50 percent during the first quarter compared to 2015 levels 1 Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or entity. Global metals & mining review
Transcript
Page 1: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

Aluminum

Anheuser-Busch plans to invest $175 million to construct a new aluminum bottle line at its facility in Jackson, Florida. The new

line will increase the facility’s aluminum bottle production by 50% and will require a 140,000-square-foot expansion. The line is

expected to be operational by Q1 2017

Thai Summit Kentucky Corp, a fabricator of automotive parts, announced plans to invest $110 million to build a new 220,000-

square-foot stamping and assembly facility in Bardstown, Kentucky. The facility will produce stamped and welded aluminum

assemblies for Ford’s truck plant in Louisville. The facility will employ 216 people and is expected to be completed by the end of

2016

Steel

Nuco Steel Bar Technologies announced plans to invest $37 million to construct a 150,000-square-foot, state-of-the-art

production facility at the Airport Industrial Park in Valparaiso, Indiana. The facility will process carbon, alloys and tool steels into

flat, round and square steel bars. The project is expected to be completed by the first half of 2017 and will reach 50,000 tons of

annual capacity by 2020

Reliance Steel announced that it has acquired Best Manufacturing Inc., a custom sheet metal fabricator based in Jonesboro,

Arkansas, for an undisclosed consideration. Best Manufacturing provides precision fabrication services including laser cutting,

shearing, CNC punching and CNC forming and rolling, among other services

Steel Technologies announced plans to invest $6 million to expand its Woodstock, Ontario facility to meet the increased demand

of lightweight materials including aluminum and advanced high-strength steel which are used in automotive applications. The

scope of the investment includes the installation of new equipment and adding 64,000-square-feet to its existing 80,000-square-

foot facility. The project is expected to be completed by the end of 2018

Specialty & Alloys

Alcoa recently announced a new contract with Airbus to supply 3-D printed titanium components and engine pylon parts. Alcoa

will manufacture the components at three of its recently expanded additive manufacturing facilities – Whitehall, Michigan; Austin,

Texas; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

Copper, Lead and Zinc

Bearing Bronze, an Ontario-based service center, announced plans to increase its reach into the growing and lucrative

aerospace industry in the coming years. The Company believes that more than 50% of its revenue will be generated from

landing gear components within five years. The aerospace market could boost the Company’s total sales by more than 20

percent to between $15 - $16 million per year. The growth will likely increase the Company’s copper rod purchasing

Mining, Scrap and Materials

U.S. nonferrous scrap markets are forging ahead after one of the most challenging quarters since 2008. According to delegates

at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries, sentiment is mixed among suppliers and consumers. Inbound scrap flows into

dealers’ yards dropped significantly at the start of 2016, and suppliers estimated that nonferrous flows have fallen approximately

50 percent during the first quarter compared to 2015 levels

1

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital

Markets Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital

Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report

was not issued by our research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be

complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation

of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation

and particular needs of any individual person or entity.

Global metals & mining review

Page 2: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

(7.4%)

13.9%

(24.3%)

(2.4%)

(50.0%)

(40.0%)

(30.0%)

(20.0%)

(10.0%)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500

147 bps

235 bps

447 bps

659 bps

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

Sp

rea

d t

o M

atu

rity

A Index BBB Index BB Index B Index

2

Index Performance (through April 11, 2016)

Investment Grade and High Yield Bond Spreads (through April 10, 2016)

Service Centers stocks

have outpaced the recovery

in the metals sector; the

index is up 13.9% over the

past 12 months vs. (7.4%)

for Global Products and

(24.3%) for Specialty Metals

Source: Capital IQ

Bond spreads were

relatively stable in March

compared to the volatile

start of 2016

Capital markets update

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3

Construction Put In Place – Annualized and Seasonally Adjusted (through February 2016)

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) (March 2016)

According to the U.S.

Census Bureau, February

2016 construction spending

totaled $1,144.0 billion, up

10.3% YoY

Gains are attributable to a

10.1% increase in Non-

Residential Construction and

an increase of 10.5% in

Residential Construction

The manufacturing PMI

came in at 51.8 in March, an

increase from the February

level of 49.5

The PMI was above 50.0 for

the 1st time in 6 months,

indicating expansion in the

manufacturing sector

Source: Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau, Institute for Supply Management

Economic commentary

690.3

453.7

$30

$130

$230

$330

$430

$530

$630

$730

$830

Feb-09 Nov-09 Aug-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Feb-16

Billio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Residential Non-residential

51.8

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

ISM

Pu

rch

as

ing

Ma

na

ge

rs I

nd

ex

(P

MI)

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4

Capacity Utilization (through April 2, 2016)

Oil & Gas Drilling Activity – U.S. [1] (April 1, 2016)

U.S. steel production was

down slightly in March, with

capacity utilization at 70.6%,

down from 72.4% in

February

Mills have produced 23.2

million tons in 2016 at an

average capacity utilization

rate of 70.4%

Source: American Iron and Steel Institute, Baker Hughes Investor Relations/Rig Data

[1] Horizontal drilling data includes directional drilling wells

Economic commentary (continued)

0.0%

15.0%

30.0%

45.0%

60.0%

75.0%

90.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Mar-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16

Ca

pa

city

Utiliz

atio

n (%

)

To

ns

(0

00

s)

Total Production Capacity Utilization

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

100.0%

2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

% o

f T

ota

l R

ig C

ou

nt

% Horizontal % Vertical

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Oil v

s. G

as

(R

ig C

ou

nt)

Oil Gas

Page 5: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

Short Term Rates Friday Prior Week Change

1-Month LIBOR 0.43% 0.44% (0.01% )

3-Month LIBOR 0.63% 0.63% 0.00%

Fed Funds 0.50% 0.50% 0.00%

Fed Discount 0.75% 0.75% 0.00%

Prime 3.50% 3.50% 0.00%

US Treasury Yields

2-year Treasury 0.70% 0.72% (0.02% )

5-year Treasury 1.15% 1.22% (0.07% )

10-year Treasury 1.72% 1.77% (0.05% )

Swaps vs. 3M LIBOR

2-year 0.90% 0.92% (0.02% )

5-year 1.20% 1.25% (0.05% )

10-year 1.65% 1.70% (0.05% )

Speculations Build Large Positions in the Yen Current Rate Snapshot (as of April 11, 2016)

5

Source: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve

Fed Speak & Economic News

US Treasury yields declined as global risk tolerance fell, with European stocks selling off and bank credit spreads

widening as political discourse in Europe weighed on sentiment. Heading farther east, the Japanese yen strengthened in

March, also highlighting the risk-off sentiment; investors doubt whether Japan’s central bank will intervene anytime

soon, especially after Japanese leaders promised not to engage in currency wars at recent summits. The 10-year

Treasury yield traded within a 7-basis-point range, starting at the high of 1.76%, touching a low of 1.69% before

rebounding to 1.72%.

In early April, the Fed released its March FOMC meeting minutes, which confirmed market participants’ concerns about

global economic headwinds. From the minutes: “Many participants expressed a view that the global economic and

financial situation still posed appreciable downside risks to the domestic economic outlook.” FOMC participants also

have concerns about the Fed’s ability to navigate a potential slowdown since short-term rates remain close to the zero-

bound; in other words, they prefer to use conventional methods to counteract a slowing in the economy (e.g., lower the

federal funds target range) and don’t want to raise rates too soon if they don’t have to. From the minutes: “the FOMC

continued to have little room to ease monetary policy through conventional means if economic activity or inflation turned

out to be materially weaker than anticipated, but could raise rates quickly if the economy appeared to be overheating or

if inflation was to increase significantly more rapidly than anticipated.” The minutes also provided some color as to why

the “dot plot” was revised lower: To achieve their economic objectives in the current market environment, a shallower

interest rate path than projected at the December meeting seemed more appropriate. The federal funds market implies a

zero-percent chance of a Fed hike at the April 26-27 meeting and a ~18% likelihood at the June 14-15 meeting.

The risk flares were bright in Europe as potential for a UK exit became more plausible, despite the vote being more than

two months away. Recent polls suggest that the “leave” votes have been catching up with the “remain” votes. The jitters

surrounding the upcoming referendum led to a decent widening in European government bond spreads, particularly

Italian and Spanish credit. The material weakening of credit worthiness across the pond will likely serve as a lid to US

Treasury yields for the next couple months.

Japanese portfolio managers continued their selling of the yen vis-à-vis the

dollar through the end of March. They are trading in their stock and yen to buy

massive amounts of foreign bonds. However, the yen has surged recently due

to speculators in the futures market having amassed a near-record long yen

position (the largest in over 20 years). Interestingly, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe

downplayed the possibility of intervention. It is likely nothing will happen without

Japanese officials consulting their G7 partners first. For the time being it looks

as if the yen will weigh on the economy unfavorably via corporate earnings and

import prices.

Source: Bloomberg

Capital Markets Update

Page 6: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

6

Steel Prices (through April 4, 2016)

LME Base Metals Prices (through April 4, 2016)

Source: American Metal Market

Note: Midwest quotes used for steel pricing

Industry fundamentals

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

U.S

. $

/ t

on

HRC CRC HDG Plate

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

U.S

. $

/ t

on

Rebar Merchant Bar

Steel HRC CRC HDG Plate Rebar Merchant Bar

End of Month Price ($ / Ton) $415 $584 $654 $489 $470 $582

MoM % Change 3.8% 7.0% 6.2% 4.0% (1.3%) 0.0%

YoY % Change (6.6%) 3.2% (0.3%) (19.4%) (21.7%) (20.5%)

LME Base Metals Aluminum Copper Nickel Zinc

End of Month Price ($ / lb) $0.69 $2.25 $3.94 $0.82

MoM % Change (1.6%) 7.3% 4.0% 4.7%

YoY % Change (16.5%) (17.9%) (32.5%) (18.2%)

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

$4.50

$5.00

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

U.S

.$ / l

b

Aluminum Copper Zinc

$0.00

$5.00

$10.00

$15.00

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

U.S

. $

/ l

b

Nickel

Page 7: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

300.0

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16

Av

g. D

aily

Sh

ipm

en

ts ('0

00

s T

on

s)

En

din

g In

ve

nto

ry (

'00

0s

To

ns

)

Ending Inventory Avg. Daily Shipments

7

Monthly Steel Production (through February 29, 2016)

MSCI Ending Inventories & Average Daily Shipments (through February 28, 2016)

Source: World Steel Association

Source: Metals Service Center Institute

('000s M T) U.S. China Rest of World World Total

LTM Production 78,294 791,073 707,944 1,577,311

MoM % Change (1.4%) (6.5%) (4.0%) (5.1%)

YoY % Change 2.9% (5.5%) (3.3%) (4.1%)

% of World Total 5.0% 50.2% 44.9% 100.0%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16

Mo

nth

ly P

rod

uc

tio

n (

'00

0s

To

ns

)

U.S. China Rest of World

Page 8: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16

U.S

. $

in

millio

ns

Exports Imports Net Exports

8

Monthly Scrap Imports / Exports (through February 29, 2015)

Ferrous & Nonferrous Scrap Prices (through April 4, 2016)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Metal Market

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

U.S

. $

/ t

on

Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Oct-15 Apr-16

U.S

. $

/ t

on

Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto

Ferrous ($ / ton) Nonferrous ($ / lb)

Scrap Heavy Melt #1 Shredded Auto Aluminum Scrap Copper Scrap Nickel Scrap

End of Month Price $180 $207 $0.60 $1.77 $2.45

MoM % Change 20.3% 9.2% (2.8%) 5.7% 0.0%

YoY % Change (19.8%) (11.7%) (15.7%) (20.6%) (42.4%)

Scrap Spread $235 $208 $0.09 $0.48 $1.49

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9

[1] KeyBanc Capital Markets’ Industrial Research platform has consistently achieved a Top 3 ranking in Greenwich Associates annual survey of small / mid-cap fund

managers

KeyBanc Capital Markets’ top-ranked[1] equity research team covers numerous companies across the Metals and Mining

sector. Selected recent research notes are provided below. Click on the respective “tear out” to read the entire note.

June 23, 2015

STLD: Improving EPS/FCF

Predictability Merit Further Update

March 16, 2016

LXFR: Slight Miss on Core Op Results, FCF

Solid; 2016 Outlook Modestly Above Our View

March 30, 2016

WOR: Updating Estimates; Thoughts Ahead of

Analyst Day

March 30, 2016

TMST: 2016 Shaping Up Better on Cost

Performance, Mix; Providing Detailed Volume

Bridge

March 27, 2016

CMC: Solid Execution Stemming Macro Volatility;

Maintaining EBITDA Estimates

March 15, 2016

NUE: 1Q Guidance in Line; 2016 Outlook

Supportive of Street’s View

March 9, 2016

RYI: 4Q Subdued as Expected; Looks like 1Q

Rebounding Better than Expectations

March 28, 2016

SCHN: 2Q (Feb.) Guide Weak, Incremental Cost

Reduction Assists Outlook

March 22, 2016

Carbon Steel: Spring Fever as HRC/Scrap Run

Continues; Taking a Look at Px Sensitivities

Select KeyBanc Capital Markets’ equity research

Carbon Steel

Page 10: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

10

Announced Closed Acquirer

(Parent)

Target

(Seller) Highlights

4/4/2016 4/4/2016 Reliance Steel &

Aluminum Best Manufacturing

Reliance Steel & Aluminum acquired Best Manufacturing for an

undisclosed consideration

The transaction will compliment Reliance’s existing service center

network and value-added processing capabilities

3/28/2016 3/31/2016

Banker Steel

(Bridge Fabrication

Holdings)

NYC Constructors

Banker Steel Company acquired NYC Constructors for $9 million

The transaction will expand Banker Steel’s capabilities in the New

York City commercial construction market

3/24/2016 Pending Tianwu Tongyong

(Tianjin)

International Trade

Maoming Hengda Steel

Group

(General Steel Holdings)

Tianwu Tongyong (Tianjin) International Trade agreed to acquire

Maoming Hengda Steel Group from General Steel Holdings for $51

million

The acquisition will expand Tianwu Tongyong (Tianjin) International

Trade’s scope of activities in the steel industry

3/24/2016 Pending Black Diamond

Capital Management

LaPlace and Vinton

facilities of ArcelorMittal

Black Diamond Capital Management agreed to acquire LaPlace and

Vinton facilities of ArcelorMittal for an undisclosed consideration

The acquisition will enhance Black Diamond Capital Management’s

investment portfolio in the steel industry

3/22/2016 Pending UACJ

UACJ Automotive Whitehall

Industries

(SRS International

Holdings)

UACJ agreed to acquire UACJ Automotive Whitehall Industries from

SRS International Holdings for $155 million

The transaction will expand UACJ’s geographic presence in the

United States

3/16/216 3/16/216 LMS Reinforcing

Steel Group

Johasee Rebar

(Mike Hill, Michael Hill and

Tami Chapman )

LMS Reinforcing Steel Group acquired Johasee Rebar from Mike

Hill, Michael Hill and Tami Chapman for an undisclosed

consideration

The transaction will expand LMS Reinforcing Steel Group’s product

and service offerings for residential and commercial customers

3/7/2016 3/24/2016 Silver Standard

Resources

Claude Resources

(Crown Capital Partners)

Silver Standard Resources acquired Claude Resources from Crown

Capital Partners for $231 million

The acquisition will enhance Silver Standard Resources’s

geographic presence in Canada

Source: American Metal Market, The Daily Deal, MergerMarket

Note: Deals lacking available “announced date” data contain identical “announced” and “closed” dates

Select recent transaction activity

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11

Source: American Metal Market, The Daily Deal, MergerMarket

Note: Deals lacking available “announced date” data contain identical “announced” and “closed” dates

Closed

(Announced) Company Gross Offering Size Highlights

3/22/2016

(3/22/2016) Aleris International

$550 million 9.500% Senior

Notes

The $550 million 9.500% Senior Notes is due on April 1, 2021

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

KeyBanc acted as Co-Manager

3/17/2016

(3/17/2016)

Namasco $275 million Revolving Credit

Facility

The $275 million Revolving Credit Facility is due on March 17, 2021

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

3/31/2016

(3/17/2016)

Warrior Coal $75 million Revolving Credit

Facility

The $75 million Revolving Credit Facility is due on March 31, 2019

The proceeds will be used for debt repayment

3/18/2016

(3/16/2016)

Silver Wheaton $2 billion Revolving Credit Facility The $2 billion Revolving Credit Facility is due on February 27, 2021

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

3/29/2016

(3/16/2016)

HudBay Minerals

$350 million Revolving Credit

Facility

The $350 million Revolving Credit Facility is due on March 13, 2019

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

3/10/2016

(3/10/2016) Freeport-McMoRan

$3.5 billion Revolving Credit

Facility

The $3.5 billion Revolving Credit Facility is due on May 30, 2019

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

3/7/2016

(3/7/2016) Atlantic Gold

$9.8 million 8.500% Convertible

Debenture

The $9.8 million 8.500% Convertible Debenture is due on March 7,

2021

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

3/1/2016

(3/1/2016) Tredegar

$400 million Revolving Credit

Facility

The $400 million Revolving Credit Facility is due on March 1, 2021

The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes

Recent capital market activity

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12

Source: CapitalIQ, ThomsonReuters, SEC Filings

Note: Outlying EV/EBITDA and P/E multiples were excluded from average and median calculations

Metals public operating & trading statistics

$ in millions, except per share data Prices

as of Market Enterprise LTM CY 2016 LTM CY 2016

Company Ticker 3/31/2016 Cap Value Sales EBITDA % Margin EPS EBITDA EPS EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio EV / EBITDA P/E Ratio

ArcelorMittal ENXTAM:MT $4.53 $8,182 $26,164 $63,578 $3,832 6.0% ($2.53) $4,543 ($0.24) 6.8x NM 5.8x NM

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional BOVESPA:CSNA3 2.01 2,795 12,925 4,360 1,071 24.6% (0.13) 750 (0.35) 12.1x NM 17.2x NM

Gerdau S.A. BOVESPA:GGBR4 1.84 3,126 8,712 12,279 1,243 10.1% 0.07 1,295 0.08 7.0x 24.9x 6.7x 24.1x

Grupo Simec S.A.B. de C.V. AMEX:SIM 8.15 1,352 965 1,522 129 8.5% 0.20 188 0.52 7.5x NM 5.1x 15.8x

PAO Severstal LSE:SVST 10.58 8,576 9,385 6,396 2,070 32.4% 0.89 1,561 1.23 4.5x 11.9x 6.0x 8.6x

SSAB AB OM:SSAB A 3.61 1,836 4,853 7,018 451 6.4% (0.11) 453 (0.12) 10.8x NM 10.7x NM

Tata Steel Limited BSE:500470 4.82 4,682 14,081 18,969 1,392 7.3% 0.04 1,757 0.07 10.1x NM 8.0x NM

ThyssenKrupp AG XTRA:TKA 20.80 11,769 16,440 48,154 3,305 6.9% 1.31 3,222 1.32 5.0x 15.9x 5.1x 15.8x

Average $5,290 $11,691 $20,284 $1,687 12.8% $1,721 8.0x 17.5x 8.1x 16.1x

Median $3,904 $11,155 $9,649 $1,318 7.9% $1,428 7.2x 15.9x 6.4x 15.8x

AK Steel Holding Corporation AKS $4.13 $739 $3,419 $6,693 $352 5.3% ($2.77) $372 ($0.16) 9.7x NM 9.2x NM

Commercial Metals Company CMC 16.97 1,993 2,705 5,092 449 8.8% 1.38 387 1.08 6.0x 12.3x 7.0x 15.7x

Nucor Corporation NUE 47.30 15,099 17,841 16,439 1,822 11.1% 1.61 1,889 1.86 9.8x NM 9.4x NM

Steel Dynamics Inc. STLD 22.51 5,530 7,390 7,594 650 8.6% 1.15 971 1.34 11.4x 19.6x 7.6x 16.8x

United States Steel Corp. X 16.05 2,384 4,791 11,574 202 1.7% (7.26) 221 (2.41) 23.7x NM 21.7x NM

Average $5,149 $7,229 $9,479 $695 7.1% $768 12.1x 15.9x 11.0x 16.2x

Median $2,384 $4,791 $7,594 $449 8.6% $867 12.7x 15.9x 9.2x 16.2x

A. M. Castle & Co. CAS $2.70 $65 $375 $771 ($36) (4.7%) ($5.07) ($36) ($5.07) NM NM NM NM

Olympic Steel Inc. ZEUS 17.31 195 341 1,176 17 1.4% (0.16) 17 (0.16) 20.2x NM 20.2x NM

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS 69.19 4,990 6,843 9,351 810 8.7% 4.55 810 4.55 8.5x 15.2x 8.5x 15.2x

Russel Metals Inc. TSX:RUS 15.25 949 1,139 2,399 102 4.2% 0.39 110 0.77 11.2x NM 10.3x 19.8x

Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI 5.56 178 1,148 3,167 161 5.1% 0.24 156 0.51 7.2x 23.5x 7.3x 10.9x

Worthington Industries, Inc. WOR 35.64 2,351 3,044 3,109 313 10.1% 2.19 315 2.45 9.7x 16.3x 9.7x 14.5x

Average $1,455 $2,149 $3,329 $228 4.1% $229 11.3x 18.3x 11.2x 15.1x

Median $572 $1,144 $2,754 $131 4.7% $133 9.7x 16.3x 9.7x 14.9x

ALBA SE DB:ABA $58.99 $580 $611 $1,835 $57 3.1% ($0.41) NA NA 10.8x NM NA NA

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 18.44 514 702 1,683 65 3.9% (0.46) 80 0.30 10.8x NM 8.8x NM

Sims Metal Management Limited ASX:SGM 6.64 1,354 1,058 4,163 80 1.9% (0.40) 158 0.21 13.3x NM 6.7x NM

Average $816 $790 $2,560 $67 3.0% $119 11.6x NM 7.8x NM

Median $580 $702 $1,835 $65 3.1% $119 10.8x NM 7.8x NM

Allegheny Technologies Inc. ATI $16.30 $1,802 $3,262 $3,720 $11 0.3% ($1.95) $259 ($0.57) NM NM 12.6x NM

Carpenter Technology Corp. CRS 34.23 1,606 2,233 2,028 243 12.0% 1.25 274 1.52 9.2x NM 8.2x 22.6x

Haynes International, Inc. HAYN 36.50 456 412 472 59 12.5% 1.97 41 1.17 7.0x 18.5x 10.2x NM

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU 84.54 1,563 1,658 1,392 181 13.0% 4.99 181 4.99 9.2x 16.9x 9.2x 16.9x

Materion Corporation MTRN 26.48 537 526 1,025 78 7.6% 1.42 78 1.42 6.7x 18.6x 6.7x 18.6x

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Inc. USAP 10.19 76 153 181 9 5.0% (0.03) 9 (0.03) 16.9x NM 16.9x NM

Average $1,007 $1,374 $1,470 $97 8.4% $140 9.8x 18.0x 10.6x 19.4x

Median $1,050 $1,092 $1,209 $69 9.8% $130 9.2x 18.5x 9.7x 18.6x

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$ in millions

Total Net Total Debt / Net Debt / Total Debt / Net Debt / EBITDA /

Company Ticker Debt Debt EBITDA EBITDA Cap (book) Cap (book) Interest

ArcelorMittal ENXTAM:MT $19,786 $15,684 NM 4.1x 43.9% 34.8% 2.8x

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional BOVESPA:CSNA3 12,437 10,119 NM NM 92.4% 75.2% 1.0x

Gerdau S.A. BOVESPA:GGBR4 7,455 5,506 NM 4.4x 45.5% 33.6% 2.5x

Grupo Simec S.A.B. de C.V. AMEX:SIM 0 (421) NM NM 0.0% NM NM

PAO Severstal LSE:SVST 2,452 794 1.2x 0.4x 52.1% 16.9% 16.8x

SSAB AB OM:SSAB A 3,346 3,011 NM NM 37.9% 34.1% 3.7x

Tata Steel Limited BSE:500470 10,833 9,146 NM NM 67.2% 56.7% 2.0x

ThyssenKrupp AG XTRA:TKA 9,154 4,605 2.8x 1.4x 70.9% 35.7% 4.4x

Average $8,183 $6,056 2.0x 2.6x 51.3% 41.0% 4.8x

Median $8,305 $5,055 2.0x 2.7x 48.8% 34.8% 2.8x

AK Steel Holding Corporation AKS $2,354 $2,298 NM NM NM NM 2.0x

Commercial Metals Company CMC 1,094 712 2.4x 1.6x 44.8% 29.1% 6.0x

Nucor Corporation NUE 4,412 2,372 2.4x 1.3x 37.3% 20.1% 10.5x

Steel Dynamics Inc. STLD 2,595 1,868 4.0x 2.9x 49.2% 35.4% 4.2x

United States Steel Corp. X 3,161 2,406 NM NM 56.5% 43.0% 0.9x

Average $2,723 $1,931 2.9x 1.9x 46.9% 31.9% 4.7x

Median $2,595 $2,298 2.4x 1.6x 47.0% 32.3% 4.2x

A. M. Castle & Co. CAS $322 $311 NM NM 87.3% 84.2% NM

Olympic Steel Inc. ZEUS 148 147 NM NM 36.8% 36.4% 3.0x

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co. RS 1,929 1,824 2.4x 2.3x 33.0% 31.2% 9.6x

Russel Metals Inc. TSX:RUS 301 190 3.0x 1.9x 31.0% 19.6% 3.2x

Ryerson Holding Corporation RYI 1,035 969 6.4x 6.0x NM NM 1.7x

Worthington Industries, Inc. WOR 629 602 2.0x 1.9x 46.9% 44.8% 9.7x

Average $727 $674 3.4x 3.0x 47.0% 43.3% 5.4x

Median $476 $456 2.7x 2.1x 36.8% 36.4% 3.2x

ALBA SE DB:ABA $34 $23 0.6x 0.4x 17.2% 11.9% 3.5x

Schnitzer Steel Industries, Inc. SCHN 204 185 3.1x 2.8x 28.1% 25.5% 7.5x

Sims Metal Management Limited ASX:SGM 6 (296) 0.1x NM 0.4% NM 6.2x

Average $81 ($29) 1.3x 1.6x 15.2% 18.7% 5.7x

Median $34 $23 0.6x 1.6x 17.2% 18.7% 6.2x

Allegheny Technologies Inc. ATI $1,496 $1,346 NM NM 41.8% 37.6% 0.1x

Carpenter Technology Corp. CRS 648 627 2.7x 2.6x 34.5% 33.4% 8.8x

Haynes International, Inc. HAYN 5 (44) 0.1x NM 1.3% NM NM

Kaiser Aluminum Corporation KALU 198 95 1.1x 0.5x 20.4% 9.8% 7.5x

Materion Corporation MTRN 14 (11) 0.2x NM 2.7% NM NM

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products Inc. USAP 77 77 NM NM 29.4% 29.4% 3.1x

Average $406 $348 1.0x 1.6x 21.7% 27.6% 4.9x

Median $138 $86 0.6x 1.6x 24.9% 31.4% 5.3x

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13

Source: CapitalIQ, ThomsonReuters, SEC Filings

Metals public credit statistics

Page 14: Global metals & mining reviewig.cdn.responsys.net/.../__RS_CP__/KBCM_MetalsMonthly.pdf · 2016-04-19 · Global Producers Service Centers Specialty Metals S&P 500 147 bps 235 bps

14

Disclosure: KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name under which corporate and investment banking products and services of KeyCorp and its subsidiaries, KeyBanc Capital Markets

Inc., Member NYSE/FINRA/SIPC, and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”), are marketed. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and

its licensed securities representatives, who may also be employees of KeyBank N.A. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A. This report was not issued by our

research department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources deemed to be reliable but is not represented to be complete, and it should not be relied

upon as such. This report does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, issuer, or industry and is not an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. This

report is prepared for general information purposes only and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of any individual person or

entity.

For additional information about KeyBanc Capital Markets, contact:

Metals & Mining Team

Select transaction experience

Eric Klenz

216.689.3974

[email protected]

Mike McMahon

216.689.4658

[email protected]

Arindam Basu

216.689.4262

[email protected]

Jeff Lakarosky

216.689.5139

[email protected]

Harrison Petts

216.689.5165

[email protected]

Petri Koivula

216.689.5478

[email protected]

Jeff Singleton

216.689.3494

[email protected]

Client Business Description

Deal Value

($ mm) Type Closed

Aleris International Manufacturer of aluminum rolled products $550 Senior Secured Notes Mar-16

Gibraltar IndustriesManufacturer of commercial building products and

processed metal products$300

Senior Secured Revolving

Credit FacilityDec-15

NN Inc.NN Inc. announced the acquisition of Precision

Engineered Components for $615 million$615 Buy-side Advisor Oct-15

NN Inc.Acquisition financing for purchase of Precision

Engineered Components for $615 million$925

Senior Secured / Unsecured

FinancingOct-15

NN Inc.Manufactures metal bearing components, plastic and

rubber components, and precision metal components$182 Follow-On Jul-15

Ellwood Group, Inc.Global manufacturer of high-quality, engineered, heavy

metal components$150 Senior Secured Financing Mar-15

Aleris International Global recycling and specification alloys business $525 Sell-Side Advisor Feb-15

Metaldyne Performance GroupProvides highly-engineered components for use in

engine, transmission and steering applications$150 IPO Dec-14

Metaldyne Performance GroupProvides highly-engineered components for use in

engine, transmission and steering applications$1,600 Senior Secured Financing Oct-14

Fairmount Santrol Produces industrial sand in North America $460 IPO Oct-14

NN Inc.Manufactures metal bearing components, plastic and

rubber components, and precision metal components$450 Senior Secured Financing Aug-14

NN Inc.Manufactures metal bearing components, plastic and

rubber components, and precision metal components$300 Buy-Side Advisor Aug-14

Ryerson Inc. Processor and distributor of metals $139 IPO Aug-14

Cadre Services, Inc.Supplier of premium frac sand products to the oil & gas

industry$98 Sell-Side Advisor Jul-14

Olympic Steel Inc. Value-added processor of flat-rolled steel products $365 ABL Financing Jun-14

Stripco LLCPremium producer of high quality, value-added cold

rolled strip and other processing servicesND Sell-Side Advisor May-14

Cliffs Natural ResourcesProduces iron ore pellets and supplies metallurgical

coal to steel producers$175 Equipment Financing Dec-13

Global Brass and Copper HoldingsFabricator and processor of specialized copper and

brass products$83 Follow-On Sep-13

Wildcat MineralsMaterial handling solutions provider for proppant

producers and oilfield service companiesND Sell-Side Advisor Sep-13

Fairmount Minerals Produces industrial sand in North America $1,285 Syndicated Finance Sep-13

Global Brass and Copper HoldingsFabricator and processor of specialized copper and

brass products$89 IPO Apr-13


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