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Marcelo PoppeMarcelo PoppeCGEECGEE
Center for Strategic Studies and ManagementCenter for Strategic Studies and Management
Global Opportunities for Global Opportunities for Sustainable BioethanolSustainable Bioethanol
CTBECTBESustainability workshopSustainability workshop
May 14 May 14 --
15th 200915th 2009
Global biofuel market:Global biofuel market:expansion, land use,
productivity, energy balance,and competitiveness
WorldWorld
Reproduced from Reproduced from UnepUnep, , February 2009. The environmental food crisis
WorldWorldBiofuels Biofuels todaytoday
Public policies regarding biofuelsPublic policies regarding biofuelsWorldWorld
New bioethanol markets
Canada
Colombia
Peru
United States
Australia
China
India
South Africa
Thailand
Sweden
BRAZIL
Argentina
Venezuela
Mexico
GermanyFrance
United Kingdom
Swiss
Russia
Philippines
Japan
New Zealand
World consumption: 50 billion liters in 2006 80 billion liters in 2010
WorldWorld
Spain Italy
Nederland
Brazilian bioethanol exports
WorldWorld
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: Secex/Unica
Bill
ion
liter
s
USA
56%
-U
E 30
%
Volum: 3,83 bilhões liters US$/m3: 485,23
Source: SECEX
46,8%
10,5%7,0%
6,3%5,6%
5,2%3,0%
3,0%2,7%
2,3%
7,6%
Estados Unidos Países Baixos (Holanda) Japão Suécia Jamaica El Salvador Trinidad e Tobago Costa Rica Venezuela Nigéria Outros
Fuel:
83,1% Other:
16,9%
WorldWorldBrazilian bioethanol exports
2006/2007
WorldWorldAgricultural land availabilityAgricultural land availability
Source: World Watch Institute
Land use needs for Land use needs for sugarcane bioethanolsugarcane bioethanol
Brazilian bioethanol production: 265 thousands b/dBrazilian bioethanol production: 265 thousands b/d
Brazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugarcane cropsBrazilian land use: 2.6 million ha of sugarcane crops
Gasoline world consumption: 20 million b/dGasoline world consumption: 20 million b/d
Global ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/dGlobal ethanol production needs for E10 => 2.4 million b/d
World land use needs => 24 million ha of sugarcane cropsWorld land use needs => 24 million ha of sugarcane cropsto be disseminated among tropical humid Countries:to be disseminated among tropical humid Countries:Latin America, Caribbean, Africa, Asia and OceaniaLatin America, Caribbean, Africa, Asia and Oceania
to provide a 10% blend in the global gasoline consumption (E10)2005 basis
WorldWorld
Sugarcane producersSugarcane producers ((130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)130 countries instead of 20 oil providers)
Source: Adapted from Laura Tetti, 2005
WorldWorld
Sources: IEA –
International Energy Agency (2005)
Ethanol yields (liters per hectare)
Sugarcane bioethanol productivity and energy balanceSugarcane bioethanol productivity and energy balance
WorldWorld
Bioethanol competitivenessBioethanol competitiveness
(1)(1)
Oil prices => US$ 60/b
Gasoline prices => US$ 0,50 to 0,60/l
Brazilian average bioethanol prices => US$ 0,35/l
Logistics US$ 0,05/lLogistics US$ 0,05/l
FOB prices US$ 0,40/lFOB prices US$ 0,40/l
Related benefits
UNFCCC -
Kyoto Protocol: GHG emission reduction
Sugar: average cost US$ 300/t (13 c/lb, or 15 c/lb FOB)Sugar: average cost US$ 300/t (13 c/lb, or 15 c/lb FOB)
Competitive excess power generation: ~ US$ 150/MWhCompetitive excess power generation: ~ US$ 150/MWh
Increasing other byIncreasing other by--products and residues valuationproducts and residues valuation
WorldWorld
(1) 2008: 2,25 R$/US$
Country Sugar[US$/t]
Ethanol[US$/l] Raw material
Brazil 120 0,20 Sugar cane
Thailand 178 0,29 Sugar cane
Australia 195 0,32 Sugar cane
United States 290 0,47 Corn
European Union 760 Beet
European Union 0,97 Cereal
Source: Datagro
2003
Bioethanol production costsBioethanol production costs
(1)(1)
WorldWorld
(1) 2003: 3 R$/US$
Bioethanol production costs Bioethanol production costs (1)(1)
Item USA Corn (Euro/hl) Germany Brazil Sugar cane (Euro/hl)
Wheat (Euro/hl) Beetroot (Euro/hl)
Building 0,39 0,82 0,82 0,21
Equipments 3,40 5,30 5,30 1,15
Labor 2,83 1,40 1,40 0,52
Insurance, tax and others 0,61 1,02 1,02 0,48Raw material 20,93 27,75 35,10 9,80
Other operational costs 11,31 18,68 15,93 2,32
Total production costs 39,48 54,96 59,57 14,48
Sub-products sale - 6,71 - 6,80 - 7,20 -
Federal and state subsidy - 7,93 - - -Liquid production costs 24,84 48,16 52,37 14,48
(1) 3 R$/US$ e 1,20 US$/EURO
WorldWorld
Source: Henniges, 2004
BrazilBrazil
BioethanolBioethanol
Brazilian experienceBrazilian experience
Renewable andRenewable and nonnon--renewable sources sharerenewable sources share
45,8
12,76,2
54,2
87,393,8
0102030405060708090
100
Brasil (2007) World (2005) OECD (2005)
%
Renewable sources Non-renewable sources
BrazilBrazil
COCO22
emissions:emissions:Brazil: 1.7 t/toeBrazil: 1.7 t/toeWorld:
2.4
t/toeWorld: 2.4 t/toe
Domestic energy supplyDomestic energy supply
Source: BEN 2006
15.1%
12.6%
14.9%
3.2%
37.5%
9.3%5.8% 1.6%
Hydropower Firewood Sugar Cane Other
Renewable Oil&Oil Products Natural Gas Coal Uranium
Renewables –
45,8%Non renewables
–
54,2%
Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008Source: Brazilian Energy Balance 2008
BrazilBrazil
Energy pattern Energy pattern --
transport sector transport sector BrazilBrazil
Energy Consumption Transport Sector (1975)
Alcohol 0,4%
Kerosen5,6%
Electricity0,2%
Diesel oil 37,3%
Fuel oil5,6%
Gasoline50,8%
Energy Consumption Transport Sector (2005)
Kerosen4,9%
Alcohol 13,3%
Electricity0,2%
Gasoline25,9%
Diesel oil 50,9%
Fuel oil1,5%
Natural gas3,3%
0200
400600800
100012001400
16001800
1975 2005Year
Produ
ction an
d Im
port of oi
(thou
sand
b/d)
Import
Production
Sources:
NIPE-Unicamp, IBGE and CTC
BrazilBrazil Sugarcane cultureSugarcane culture
Source:
IBGE,
2008
Country total area851 Mha
(100%)
Rural propertiesarea 355 Mha
(42%)Cultivated land area
70 Mha
(8%)Sugarcane cropland for fuel
3,5 Mha
(0.5%)
Amazon forest 400 MhaPantanal 13 MhaAtlantic rain forest 3 Mha
Farming (2007) Area(Mha)
Soya
23Corn
12Sugar cane
7Agriculture
70Cattle 200
Progress over 30 years
40,00
45,00
50,00
55,00
60,00
65,00
70,00
75,00
80,00
85,00
7576
76/7
777
/78
78/7
979
/80
80/8
181
/82
82/8
383
/84
84/8
585
/86
86/8
787
/88
88/8
989
/90
90/9
191
/92
92/9
393
/94
94/9
595
/96
96/9
797
/98
98/9
999
/00
00/0
101
/02
02/0
303
/04
04/0
505
/06
06/0
7
tc/h
a
2,50
3,00
3,50
4,00
4,50
5,00
5,50
6,00
6,50
7,00
7,50
m3 /h
a
l/tc tc/ha m3/ha
BrazilBrazilS
ourc
e:
Sou
rce:
Uni
caU
nica
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000Ethanol Cumulative Production (thousand m3 )
(200
4) U
S$ /
GJ
Ethanol prices in Brazil Rotterdam regular gasoline pricelong-term trend (Rotterdam gasoline prices) long-term trend (Ethanol prices)
1986
20042002
1999
1980
19901995
jul 2005
Learning curbLearning curb
Source: J Source: J GoldembergGoldemberg
Sou
rce:
CTC
Sou
rce:
CTC
Bioethanol from sugarcaneBioethanol from sugarcaneBrazilBrazil
25 billion litters produced & 5 billion litters exported
Energetic biomass cost = US$ 1.4/GJ
(industrial countries goal for 2020)
420 industrial units (100 new ones)
>70,000 producers; ~1,000,000 jobs
Knowledge frontier expansion :genetics, biotechnologies, hydrolysis...
• Large experience using bioethanol as mixed fuel for vehicle (1925) ~ 5%
• Proálcool (1975):
• up to 25% of bioethanol blended in the gasoline (E 25)
• 5 million pure bioethanol powered cars manufactured
• Flex-fuel motors using the E 25 blend, bioethanol, or a mix of both (2003)
• 7 million flex-fuel cars manufactured; 90% of the 2008 new car market
• Only E 25 & bioethanol delivered by all the 35,000 Country’s fuel station
Bioethanol for carBioethanol for carBrazilBrazil
19251925 19751975 20032003
Switch to an energy businessSwitch to an energy business
Business incomeBusiness income 20052005 20152015
bioethanolbioethanol 39%39% 54%54%bioelectricitybioelectricity 1%1% 16%16%energyenergy 40%40% 70%70% * COGEN 2008
BrazilBrazil
kW 4
G~
G~
η =86%
PROCESSOINDUSTRIAL
6.140kW 18.322KWη = 84% η = 84%
100,96 t/h
35 t/h 65,96 t/h5,7 kgv/kWh 3,6 Kgv/kWh
35,00 t/h
CALDEIRA 66 bar - 520 º CQuantidade de Bagaço 46,1 Ton/h
49,47 t/h
150 º C
110 º C
16,49 t/h 20072007 3%3%
20122012 6%6%
2020*2020* 15%15%
Biopower in CountryBiopower in Country’’sselectricity generationelectricity generation
Bioethanol prospectsBioethanol prospects
technological improvementtechnological improvement and sustainability enhancementand sustainability enhancement
BrazilBrazil
BrazilBrazil
with irrigation“salvation”(< 2.000 m3/ha.year)
Soil & climate potentialSoil & climate potentialfor sugarcane culturefor sugarcane culture
Amazon RainforestPantanalAtlantic Forest
Other important preservation areas
Above 12% slope area (75 Mha)
without
irrigation
High Good Medium Inadequate(> 80 t/ha)(> 80 t/ha) (> 70 t/ha)(> 70 t/ha) (> 60 t/ha)(> 60 t/ha) Source: CGEE –
NIPE/Unicamp -
CTC
Scenarios ofScenarios of land use needs for sugarcane production (2025)land use needs for sugarcane production (2025)
Global ethanol
consump tion
Technology (Mha)
Sugar (Mha)
Ethanol internal market (Mha)
Ethanol exports (Mha)
Total land
(Mha)
Available land* (Mha)
Scenario 1E5
102,5 bl/y
Present 3.6 6.8 15.2 25.6 80
Progressive 3.2 4.8 12.0 20.0 80
Scenario 2 E10
205 bl/y
Present 3.6 6.8 30.4 40.8 80
Progressive 3.2 4.8 24.0 32.0 80
BrazilBrazil
*Taking in account agro*Taking in account agro--ecological criteria and existing temporary and permanent cultureecological criteria and existing temporary and permanent cultures s
20% 20% --
environment reserveenvironment reserve 8860% of Pantanal area2.6 times Atlantic rain forest area
Source: CGEE –
NIPE/Unicamp
Investments during 20 years
US$ 5 billion/year
Results per year in 2025Ethanol production
102.5 billion liters
Excess power production 55 TWh
(15% of the 2004 power market)
Ethanol
exports
US$ 30 billion
GDP increasing
US$ 75 billionConsidering direct, indirect and induced revenue (input-output matrix)
Jobs 5.3 million
Level of salary
50% over the national average salary
BrazilBrazil Scenario E 5 for 2025Scenario E 5 for 2025SocioSocio--economic impactseconomic impacts
Source: CGEE –
NIPE/Unicamp
Scientific and technological baseScientific and technological baseScientific publications related with the sugar cane
Pesquisa em cana-de-açúcar
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
EUABrasilSão PauloÍndiaAustráliaChina
Source: ISI –
Web of Science (29/09/2006)Literature research: (TS=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or
Sacchacarum) or TI=(sugarcane or "sugar cane" or Sacchacarum) NOT TS=(alcoholism or psychiatr* or clinic or medicin*)
BrazilBrazil
Source: http://www.ifpri.org/2020/focus/focus14/focus14.pdf
Bioenergy
technology road mapBrazilBrazil
National laboratory, working with the scientific and industrial Brazilian communities. It collaborates with basic
research and technological development along the sugarcane & bioethanol chain. Its mission involve the
construction of public and private partnerships.
Bioethanol Science and Technology Centre
BrazilBrazil
National Science and Technology InstituteNational Science and Technology Institute for Bioethanol Biotechnologyfor Bioethanol Biotechnology
Research networkResearch network
BrazilBrazil
Bioethanol R&D&I agendaBioethanol R&D&I agenda
Better photosynthesis comprehensionBetter photosynthesis comprehension
Conventional genetic improvement and genetic engineeringConventional genetic improvement and genetic engineering
Production models and infrastructure developmentProduction models and infrastructure development
Biotechnologies, agriculture of precision and optimization of inBiotechnologies, agriculture of precision and optimization of inputsputs
Mechanical harvest, without burning and with straw collectingMechanical harvest, without burning and with straw collecting
PrePre--processing and stock of processing and stock of bagassebagasse
and straw and straw
Fermentation, grinding and distillation improvementsFermentation, grinding and distillation improvements
Management and automation (advanced system)Management and automation (advanced system)
Reduction of water and energy consumption and recycle of effluenReduction of water and energy consumption and recycle of effluentsts
Increase of the excess power generationIncrease of the excess power generation
AlcoholAlcohol--chemistry, sugarchemistry, sugar--chemistry and chemistry and biorefinerybiorefinery
Hydrolysis, gasification (FHydrolysis, gasification (F--T) and T) and pyrolysispyrolysis
of of bagassebagasse
and strawand straw
SugarSugar--cane of high biomass cane of high biomass --
"energy cane""energy cane"
BrazilBrazil
GeneticsGeneticsnew varieties adapted to local soils and climate and resistent against diseases
BrazilBrazil
Biofactory: Biofactory: quickquick
multiplicationmultiplication
Sugarcane of high biomass: energy caneSugarcane of high biomass: energy cane
BrazilBrazil
RecycleRecycle
HydrolysisHydrolysis
GasificationGasification
PyrolysisPyrolysis
BiorefineriesBiorefineries
Next generationNext generation
Low impact mechanizationLow impact mechanization
20052005 20152015 20252025
Sugar caneSugar cane 70 t/ha70 t/ha 82 t/ha82 t/ha 94 t/ha94 t/ha
Industrial Industrial technologytechnology
l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha l/tcl/tc l/hal/ha
ConventionalConventional 8585 6,0006,000 100100 8,2008,200 110110 10,40010,400
HydrolysisHydrolysis ------ -------- 1515 1,2001,200 4040 3,6003,600
TotalTotal 8585 6,0006,000 115115 9,4009,400 150150 14,00014,000
BrazilBrazilProductivity prospectsProductivity prospects
(agro(agro--industrial technologies)industrial technologies)
Source: CGEE –
NIPE/Unicamp
Primary energy potential improvementPrimary energy potential improvement
Sugar caneSugar cane Energy caneEnergy cane
Productivity (t/ha)Productivity (t/ha) 7070 100100
Fiber (%)Fiber (%) 13.513.5 26.026.0
Trash (%)Trash (%) 14.014.0 25.025.0
Pol (%)Pol (%) 14.514.5 12.012.0
Total fiber (t/ha)Total fiber (t/ha) 19.319.3 51.051.0
Energy (GJ/ha)Energy (GJ/ha) 520520(12.5 toe)(12.5 toe)
1,1001,100(26 toe)(26 toe)
BrazilBrazil
Source: CGEE –
NIPE/Unicamp
Careful planningCareful planning
Exclusion of protect areasExclusion of protect areas
Regards to food securityRegards to food security
Crop choices matching geoCrop choices matching geo--climate conditionsclimate conditions
Productivity, and energy & GHG emission balancesProductivity, and energy & GHG emission balances
Agricultural bestAgricultural best--practicespractices
Products and processes certificationProducts and processes certification
Environmental, social and economic sustainabilityEnvironmental, social and economic sustainability
BiofuelBiofuel
production awarenessproduction awarenessWorldWorld
Regional, country & local developmentRegional, country & local development
Energy security enhancement Energy security enhancement
GHG emission reductionGHG emission reduction
Local pollution reductionLocal pollution reduction
Oil imports reductionOil imports reduction
Oil exports expansionOil exports expansion
Currency savingCurrency saving
Job creationJob creation
Rural migration contentionRural migration contention
BiofuelBiofuel
favorable externalitiesfavorable externalitiesWorldWorld
WorldWorld
“I foresee the time when industry shall no longer denude the forests which require generations to mature, nor use up the mines which were ages in the making, but shall draw its raw material largely from the annual products of the fields. I am convinced that we shall be able to get out of the yearly crops most of the basic materials which we now get from forest and mine”
[Henry Ford, Modern Mechanics (1934)]
Remarkable perceptionRemarkable perception
NAE Journals: BiofuelsStudy commissioned by the Nucleus of Strategic Issues of the Presidency of the RepublicCoordination: Isaías Macedo & Luiz A. Horta Nogueira
Study on the role of State Agricultural Research Organizations (OEPAs)Study under the Management Contract signed between MCT and CGEE
BrazilBrazil Studies related to Studies related to BioethanolBioethanol
Studies commissioned to Nipe/Unicamp, and involving CTC and TranspetroCoordination: Rogério
Cezar
de Cerqueira
Leite
/ Luís
Augusto Barbosa
CortezSupervision: CGEE
BrazilBrazil Studies related to Studies related to BioethanolBioethanol
Studies commissioned to
Nipe/Unicamp, and involving
CTC and
CeneaCoordination: Rogério Cezar de Cerqueira Leite / Luís Augusto Barbosa CortezSupervision: CGEE
BrazilBrazil Studies related to Studies related to BioethanolBioethanol
Book in four languages launched during the International Conference on Biofuels, held in São Paulo (November 2008)
www.bioetanoldecana.orgwww.bioetanoldecanadeazucar.orgwww.sugarcanebioethanol.orgwww.bioetanoldecanne.org
Partnership: BNDES, CGEE,Partnership: BNDES, CGEE,
ECLAC and FAOECLAC and FAOCoordination: Luiz A. Coordination: Luiz A. HortaHorta
NogueiraNogueira
Marcelo PoppeMarcelo Poppe
[email protected]@cgee.org.br
www.cgee.org.brwww.cgee.org.br
Thank You !Thank You !
Three quarters of the world's energy supply come Three quarters of the world's energy supply come from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution from fossil fuels, responsible for large local pollution loads and for most of the greenhouse gases loads and for most of the greenhouse gases emissions. The scale on which they are being used emissions. The scale on which they are being used will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy will quickly lead to their depletion. The world energy consumption should grow as a result of the progress consumption should grow as a result of the progress of many of the worldof many of the world’’s developing regions. Industrial s developing regions. Industrial countries have not succeeded in reducing energy countries have not succeeded in reducing energy use without compromising the quality of life, even use without compromising the quality of life, even though it is known that this can and must be done. though it is known that this can and must be done. The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable The challenge, therefore, is to seek renewable energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy energy sources and to increase efficiencies in energy production and use on an unprecedented scale.production and use on an unprecedented scale.
WorldWorldGlobal challengeGlobal challenge
