October 9th, 2020
Global Polypropylene Outlook
ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
Fabrizio Galiè – Senior Consultant, ICIS
Impact of covid-19 on PP
Agenda
9 Oct 2020
01
Risk of oversupply02
Future demand03
2ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
Impact of covid-19 on PP
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 3
PP Global Demand
4
-1%Global demand contraction now expected in 2020
7.9MtDemand loss in 2020-2021
1.5-2Mt Annual demand loss from 2022
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
M tonnes
Covid-19 impact on global PP demand outlook
Pre-covid demand forecast Current demand forecast
Early recovery for some (key) markets
5
3.9%Current projection for China 2020
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
N.America
S&C America
Europe
Turkey
Former USSR
Africa
Middle East
China
NE Asia
Asia Pacific
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%
PP 2020 CAGR% by Region
40%Projected China share on global consumption 2020
Downstream trends very mixed
6
-5%Minimum annual drop expected for injection moulding
PP demand drop from automotive sector (prelim.)
Positive y-o-y
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
MEDICAL and FOOD PACK.
-27%
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0
Other (incl.blow)
Nonwoven
Extr. Film, sheet, coating
Extr. Fibres and raffia
Injection Molding
World PP Demand by Process
2020 (forecast) 2019
M Tonnes
Risk of oversupply
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 7
Demand disruption affected timeline for some projects
89 Oct 2020
CANADAPembina/PIC
550KtyON HOLD
MALAYSIAPengerang
900KtyDELAYED (2021)
USAFormosa250Kty
DELAYED (2023)
COLOMBIAEsenttia
(expansion)CANCELED
CHINASaudi Aramco (jv)
600KtyON HOLD
ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
Largest annual capacity increases in PP history
9
6.1MtyAverage annual increase in total available PP capacity 2020-2022
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
World PP Annual Capacity IncreaseK Tonnes
1.0
Africa &M.East
World PP capacity increases 2020-2025 (Mt/y)
10ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar9 Oct 2020
1.9
North America
0.8
Europe & Turkey 1.2
Former USSR
10.9
North East Asia
5.2
Asia Pacific
Excess capacity increase vs global demand
119 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar
82%World average plant utilization rate 2020-2022 based on current projects
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025
World PP Supply&Demand
capacity cons ut rate
M Tonnes %
Future demand
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 12
Copyright © 2019 ICIS
Population
Urbanization
Infrastructures
Middle class
World Population Growth 2030 vs. 2020
Long-term macro-trends supportive of demand growth
2020 2030
2020 2030
2020 2030 2020 2030
2020 2030
2020 2030
2020 20302020 2030
ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar9 Oct 2020
Forecast World PP Demand
1409 Oct 2020
China
CIS
E. Europe
India
Mexico & South-Central America
Middle East
N. America excl. Mex
Oth. Asia Pacific
North Africa
Oth. Africa
Turkey
W. Europe
Oth. NE. Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Pe
r C
ap
ita
Co
ns
um
pti
on
20
19
(K
G)
Demand AAGR 2019-2030 (%/year)
*Size represents Demand in 2019.
9 Oct 2020
• Key applications prevented deeper
falls so far
• Duration of the coronavirus crisis may
lead to worse consequences
• Investments confront with oversupply
• Long-term demand potential
9 Oct 2020 ICIS Global Petrochemicals Outlook Seminar 15
Key takeaways
Thank you
Fabrizio Galiè Senior Consultant
+39 340 881 8055