Technology Strategy and Organisation

Group Presentation Global Positioning System (GPS)

11th March 2011

R. Craig, S. G****, R. V****,

C. A****, S. D****

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Outline

• Background• Chronological GPS Evolution• Technology S Curve• Multiple S Curves• Product Process Cycle• Dominant Design Model• Diffusion Curve

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Background

• The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a space-based Global navigation satellite system that provides location and time information.

• The project was started in 1973 to overcome the limitations of previous navigation systems.

• GPS was created by the US department of defence and was originally run with 24 satellites.

• It became fully operational in 1994 at the cost of twelve billion US taxpayer dollars.

• Freely accessible by anyone with a GPS receiver.

Navigation by radio as an aid has been practiced in Germany since 1907 (Telefunken)

First used as radio directional finder (RDF) between radio towers.

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In 1972, the US Air Force developmental flight tests of two prototype GPS receivers

In 1978 the first experimental Block-I GPS satellite was launched.

In 1983, civilian airliner strayed into restricted Soviet airspace due to navigational errors and shot , GPS made available for civilian use.

February 14, 1989, the first modern Block-II satellite was launched.

December 1993 the GPS achieved initial operational capability[51]

January 17, 1994 a complete constellation of 24 satellites was in orbit.

Full Operational Capability was declared by NAVSTAR in April 1995.

In 1996, US declaring GPS to be a dual-use system (national asset).

In 1998, two new civilian signals for enhanced user accuracy and reliability, particularly with respect to aviation safety.

On May 2, 2000 "Selective Availability" was discontinued

In 2004, US and European Community establishing cooperation related to Garmin GPSand Europe's planned Galileo system.

November 2004, successful tests of Assisted-GPS for mobile phones.

In 2005, the first modernized GPS satellite was launched and began transmitting a second civilian signal for enhanced user performance.

GPS Timeline

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Technology S Curve GPS ‘System’

Time or Engineering Effort

Product Performance

Estimated position of GPS system

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GPS Application S Curve GPS

Time or Engineering Effort

Product Performance

Military Applications

Civil Applications - Land, sea, air

Personal Use – Outdoors - phone

Dependent Use – Children, pets, objects

BIG BROTHER

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GPS in the news

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Multiple S Curves for

Accuracy

Reliability

Cost

S Curves could also be applied to other factors such as size, battery life, ease of use etc.............

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Product-Process CycleDifficult to apply with our vision of the GPS system with product process cycle. A better application is with GPS mobile phones.

Each product would have its own product process cycle.Product

Process

Fluid Transition Specific Mature

Estimated position of GPS system

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Dominant Design Model

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Dominant Design Model

312 BC (Rome)

2000BC (Egypt)

290BC (Egypt)

1761AD (Great Britain)

1730AD (Great Britain)

247BC (China)

1859AD (Canada)

1940AD (Great Britain + Allies)

1993AD (US)

1995AD (US)

1990AD (US)

1999AD (US)

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Diffusion Curve GPS Systems

Europe

China/India

Time

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Implications of this analysis for technology strategy

for these organisations and potential entrants.• Works well for a physical product evolution, but has

difficulty contextually complex systems. • System was too big to handle within the set time scale,

the team boundaries were too big to manage. Boundaries would need to be rationalized (reduced, simplified).

• Market evolution not product specific• More questions than answers, systems understanding

expanded.• In application of the dominant design model highlighted

how complex the system is

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Conclusions (Models) Presentation Critique for ease of use and their utility for decision making in technology strategy

• S-Curve~ Helps to indicate when to invest in new tech/products

• Dominant Systems Model~ Models too basic for multi dimensional technology convergence

• Diffusion Model~ Promotes understanding of current technology trajectory

• Product-Process Cycle~ Product specific, different applications~ Abstract level, N-dimensions

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Conclusions (Reflections) Presentation Critique for ease of use and their utility for decision making in technology strategy

• Models used for indication only (creates discussion)• All models are wrong but some are useful• Enables visibility of technological paradigms• Epistemological evolution• Not a panacea • Group had no tacit knowledge for successful application

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References• Bauer, A. “Some historical and technical

aspects of radio navigation, in Germany, over the period 1907 to 1945”, 2004 http://www.xs4all.nl/~aobauer/Navigati.pdf