Global PV Market Report - InfoLink · 2020. 3. 18. · Abstract • Full-Year Global Market Outlook...

© 2017 PV InfoLink. All rights reserved.

Global PV Market Report

PV InfoLink

May 2019

Contents

Global PV Market Demand Analysis

Demand forecast and analysis of the 2019 global PV market

Global Top 15 Markets ProfileIntegrated analysis based on PV InfoLink’s 2019 demand forecast of the global

top 15 solar markets

Strategies for Expanding into Emerging PV Markets

Market analysis and business expansion strategies targeting five emerging PV

markets (selected by PV InfoLink quarterly)


Abstract• Full-Year Global Market Outlook

Due to China’s policy uncertainty, this year’s global market demand remained weak in H1 then rises

in H2. Once China starts implementing new policies in H2, the global market is expected to see

stronger demand.

• Overseas Markets OutlookOwing to VAT cut and supportive policies, overseas market demand will see significant growth from

2018. The overall market outlook is quite optimistic.

• Emerging Markets OutlookCountries in the Middle East, Central and South America, and Africa have all started pushing for

solar energy. This year is expected to see utility-scale solar tenders, which will stimulate the PV

demand up to 2020.


Global Market Demand Analysis

• Global Market Demand Forecast (2019)


Global Market Demand (2019)

Global Market Demand Analysis May 2019

© 2017 PV InfoLink. All rights reserved. 01

Global Module Demand Forecast (2018-2019)

• As demand from some projects is expected to postpone

to 1Q20, this version revised the 2019 Chinese module

demand to 36 GW. Despite a slight decline in the Chinese

demand, the strong overseas demand has kept the global

market growing. The 2019 global demand is revised to

115.8 GW, a 18% of growth from last year with an

addition of 17.7 GW.

• China’s share in the global market is diminishing, whereas

overseas markets will account for 69% of global market.

India, the U.S., Europe, and emerging markets including

Vietnam, Brazil, and Egypt all witnessed growth from last

year.

• Due to China’s transition towards grid-parity and

bidding mechanism, some project developers have

turned to multi-Si products, which might help push

up the percentage of multi-Si cell in the Chinese

market this year. Since many cell makers have upgraded

their lines from multi-Si to mono-Si PERC, it is expected

that multi-Si cell market will no longer face surplus in H2,

and even lead to a price upward trend across the multi-Si

supply chain.

China, 42%

India, 8%USA, 7%

Japan, 6%

EU, 11%

ME, 4%

Africa, 3%

Others, 19%

China, 31%

India, 13%

USA, 12%

Japan, 5%

EU, 14%

ME, 5%

Africa, 3%

Others, 17%

98.1 GW 115.8 GW

2018 2019

Global Top 15 Markets Profile

• Module Demand Forecast of Global Top 15 Markets

• Policy Tracking of Top 15 Markets

• Integrated Analysis of Markets


0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000

Netherlands

Taiwan

Ukraine

Mexico

UAE

Egypt

Korea

France

Brazil

Germany

Australia

Spain

Japan

USA

India

Optimistic Scenario Neutral Scenario

Global Top 15 Markets Module Demand Forecast (2019)

Global Top 15 Markets Profile May 2019

© 2017 PV InfoLink. All rights reserved. 02

(MW)

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23.02 24.02

25.21

28.18

2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1

India

03

PV Policy

Module Demand

• Target: 100 GW installation by 2022

➢ Large ground-mounted: 60GW

➢ Rooftop: 40GW

• PPA auction

➢ 80-90% utility-scale projects

➢ 10-20% roof-top projects

• Net-metering

➢ Varied by state

Cumulative installation, Unit: GW

Module demand forecast, Unit: GW


Source: PV InfoLink China Customs Database (March)

0

10

20

30

40

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Neutral scenario Optimistic scenarioModule Output

Average

price

Multi 330 0.21

335 0.22

Source: Ministry of Power


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Renewable Energy in India

04© 2017 PV InfoLink. All rights reserved.

• To spur solar industry development, India

targets 100 GW of cumulative installation

by 2022.

• The target for large ground-mounted

projects is 60 GW and residential projects

40 GW.

• By the end of Q1 this year, solar took up

34% of total renewable energy mix. As

safeguard duty tariffs will be reduced

gradually between 2019 and 2020, PV

demand is expected to heat up again, and

take up larger percentage of the total

installation.Source: Ministry of Power

49% 49% 48% 47%

6% 6% 6% 6%

13% 13% 12% 12%

33% 33% 34% 34%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1

Installation of Renewable Energy by Source, Unit: %

Wind Small hydro Biomass Solar


Updates on Indian PV Policy


PV Policy

Policy Updates

Safeguard duty reduced to 20%

Spurring Rooftop projects

demand

• After the safeguard duty is reduced to 20% this July, demand will be pushed up higher than last year.

Despite being affected by the safeguard duty, most PV plants will still use China-made modules or

tariff-free modules from Vietnam and Thailand. Thus, Indian-made modules will be supplying the

U.S. market demand mainly.

• On February 20, 2019, the Indian government approved to allocate USD 6.48 billion to support

farmers in using solar energy to stimulating rooftop projects. Though the new policy brings good news

to the rooftop projects, whether the policy will be affective is yet to be seen considering the non-centralized

political system in India.

• The second phase of the project has been approved. Approximately INR 11.8 billion will be allocated

between 2019 and 2022 to achieve roof-top solar installation of 38 GW. The project is divided into:

➢ Add 4GW of installation capacity for residential use

➢ Utility enterprises can be awarded from an extra 18 GW of grid-connected rooftop projects.


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815

550

350300

300

300

250

150

120100

325

Breakdown of Awarded Capacity in Auction

(Q1 2019)

ReNew Power

ACME Solar

Avaada Energy

Azure Power

EDEN Renewable

SBSR Power Cleantech Eleven (SoftBank)

Fortum Solar

Adani Green Energy

Juniper Green Energy (AT Capital)

Sitara Solar Energy (UPC Renewable)

Others

3.56GW

India’s Solar Tenders in Q1


• India has issued 3,560 MW solar tender in the

first quarter of 2019, with 98% of which for

large ground-mounted PV plants and 1-2% for

rooftop projects. As the government targets

mainly large-scale projects with more than

100MW, most small developers had

withdrawn from the game of bidding due to

financial issues; only large developers with

financial advantage still remain in the

competition. Thanks to cheaper cost of land

and loans, the winning bids are relatively low in

India. ₹2.48(~$0.0349)/kWh is by far the lowest

tariff awarded this year.


Multi84%

Mono PERC16%

Other0%

325W48%

330W22%

Other (Multi)14%

370W8%

375W7% 0%

Chinese module shipment to India (Q1 2019)

Product Demand in India


• China has exported 1,681 MW of modules in

Q1. The majority of the modules shipped are

72-cell 325W/ 330W conventional multi-Si

module and 72-cell mono PERC modules

with 370W and 375W.

• Compared to 12-13% of the total exports

in November through December last year,

percentage of mono PERC modules has

increased to 20% in January through

February.

1,681MW


0.20

0.22

0.24

0.26

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19

Trends of China’s export price of modules (February 2018 – February 2019), Unit: US$/W

Multi-325W Multi-330W Mono PERC-370W Mono PERC-375W

Product Price Trends in the India Market


• The Indian market’s high price sensitivity has led to China’s continued price decrease in modules exported to India.

Prices for mainstream products dropped by nearly 40% last year, resulting in the rise of pressure on

profitability. In fact, companies earn zero gross profit in the Indian market and staying in the market is only to

maintain their market share and consume production capacity.


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0

10

20

30

40

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Module demand forecast (2019-2025), Unit: MW

Neutral scenario Optimistic scenario

Indian Module Demand Forecast


• Affected by India’s safeguard duty, module

demand last year saw a considerable decline

compared to 2017. As the safeguard duty is set

to be reduced to 20% later this year, the

sluggish market is expected to be revived.

• With gradual deduction of the safeguard duty

over 2018 to 2020, module demand is expected

to rise steadily, and reach a peak in 2021 when

safeguard duty is no longer an issue. Driven

by the 100 GW of installation target set for 2022,

there might be around 18-20 GW of average

market growth annually. However, the target is

unlikely to be achieved judging on the current

development progress.


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• Demand start rising between 2019 and 2021 after

safeguard duty cut.

• Demand boom might occur by the end of the policy

in 2021.

0

10

20

30

40

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Module demand forecast (2019-2025), Unit: MW

Neutral scenario Optimistic scenario

The Other 14 Major Markets Profile


• Affected by India’s safeguard duty, module

demand last year saw a considerable decline

compared to 2017. As the safeguard duty is set

to be reduced to 20% later this year, the

sluggish market is expected to be revived.

• With gradual deduction of the safeguard duty

over 2018 to 2020, module demand is expected

to rise steadily, and reach a peak in 2021 when

safeguard duty is no longer an issue. Driven

by the 100 GW of installation target set for 2022,

there might be around 18-20 GW of average

market growth annually. However, the target is

unlikely to be achieved judging on the current

development progress.


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• Demand start rising between 2019 and 2021 after

safeguard duty cut.

• Demand boom might occur by the end of the policy

in 2021.

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• Emerging Market Module Demand Forecast

• Basic Profile of Emerging Markets

• Policy and Product Analysis of Emerging Markets

• Competitors Analysis

• Business Expansion Strategies


108

Strategies for Expanding into Emerging PV Markets May 2019


Demand Forecast of Emerging Markets

(MW)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

亚洲欧洲美洲中东非洲

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Asia EU America ME Africa

109

May 2019


Country Profile: Oman

Annual solar radiation,Unit: kWh

Basic Profile

Estimated population in 2017* 4.64 million

GDP growth rate in 2018* -0.273%

Foreign direct investment in 2017** USD 180 million

Moody’s credit rating of March

2019**Ba1 (Negative)

Climate*** Desert

Daily solar radiation**** Summer: 5.5-6kWh/m2

Winter: 2.5-3kWh/m2

Accumulative PV installation in

2018****8MW

Local solar companies and related organizations

Type Name

Developer Bahwan Engineering Group

Oman Solar Systems Co.LLC

Oman Gas Company

EPC Nafath

State-owned utility Oman Power & Water Procurement Company

Oman Electricity Transmission Company

Source: *The World Bank

**Country Economy.com UNCTAD

***Climates to Travel

****DIT

*****IRENA

1,850-1,950kWh

1,750-1,850kWh

＜1,650kWh

1,650-1,750kWh


Local solar companies and related organizations

Type Name

Developer Bahwan Engineering Group

Oman Solar Systems Co.LLC

Oman Gas Company

EPC Nafath

State-owned utility Oman Power & Water Procurement Company

Oman Electricity Transmission Company

110



Renewable Energy in Oman• At present, up to 96% of electricity in Oman is generated by natural gas and the remaining 4% by diesel. To diversify

energy resources, the country plans to source 10% of electricity from renewable energy by 2025.

• To achieve the goal, Omani government expects to add about 2.6 GW of combined capacity from solar, wind, and

waste between 2021 and 2024. With solar a key project to be developed, the installation target for 2021-2024 is set

at 2.1 GW, nearly 80% of the total installation goal. The power generated by solar is expected to satisfy 30% of the

national grid demand.

Renewable development plan

Estimated aggregate installation by year(MW)

Solar scheme Capacity (MW) Deadline (Year) 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

SAHIM Plan 1,015(e) -- 145 145 145 145 145 145 145

Ibri II Solar IPP 500 2021 -- -- -- 500 500 500 500

Solar IPP 2022 500 2022 -- -- -- -- 500 500 500

Solar IPP 2023 500 2023 -- -- -- -- -- 500 500

Solar IPP 2024 500 2024 -- -- -- -- -- -- 500

Wind IPP 2023 200 2023 -- -- -- -- -- 200 200

Wind IPP 2024 200 2024 -- -- -- -- -- -- 200

Waste to Energy 1 50 2023 -- -- -- -- -- 50 50

合计 2,595 145 145 145 645 1,145 1,895 2,595

May 2019

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PV Policy

Policy Updates

Rooftop – SAHIM Plan

IPP PV plant

• Oman issued consultation paper of SAHIM Plan in May 2017 and initiated the first phase of

the project in March 2018. The first phase aims at establishing 1 GW rooftop projects and it

allows large-scale household and business owners to install grid-connected PV systems at

their own cost. Once the systems are connected to the grid, they can receive a payment for

any excess power selling to the grid under the rate set by the government.

111



Oman’s PV Policy

May 2019

• In January 2018, the Oman Power and Water Procurement Company (OPWP) launched the

nation’s first tender for utility-scale PV project. With a capacity of 500 MW, the PV plant is to

be built in Ibri. The project was awarded to Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, Kuwait’s Gulf

Projects Co, and Alternative Energy Project Co. As one of the country’s renewable energy

plans, roughly USD 400 million will be allocated to the project, which is expected to

complete by the end of June 2021.

• The second round of IPP PV plant auction expects to announce the list of qualified

developers in mid-2019.The project is expected to complete by the end of June 2022.

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66

22

48

15

50

6

15

6 4

0

20

40

60

80

Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter 4

Chinese module shipment volume (2017- Q1 2019) Unit: MW

2019/01-2019/03 2018 full year 2017 full year

112



Module Demand Analysis of Oman• According to PV InfoLink’s China customs database, China shipped 135 MW of modules to Oman in 2018, representing

three times growth compared to the same period in 2017. The 135 MW of modules are expected to be used on rooftop

projects and PV plants.

• The total exports in Q1 2019 was 66MW, reflecting higher module demand than in the same period of 2017 and 2018. As

the first project with 500 MW of capacity this year has been awarded through auction, module demand is likely to emerge

in the second half, and the shipment volume is also expected to be higher than the first half of the year.

After the 500 MW utility-scale project was awarded through

auction in Q1 2019, module demand is likely to emerge and

shipment volume to increase significantly in Q2.

May 2019

Multi59%

Multi PERC7%

Mono12%

Mono PERC22%

100W4% 150W

6%

320W6%

325W16%

330W22%

Other(Multi)

5%

ˇ340W7%

0%

340W4%

Other (Mono)

8%

380W6%

Other(Mono PERC)

16%

Chinese Module Exports to Oman in Q1 2019

66MW


Product Demand Analysis of Oman

• The current market demand in Oman is

mainly conventional multi-Si modules,

accounting for 60% of total demand,

while mono PERC takes up about 20%.

• In terms of the mainstream product, the

market adopts mostly 72-cell

conventional multi-Si modules with 325/

335W.

• With higher cost-performance,

conventional mono- Si modules will

be losing market share to mono

PERC in the future.

May 2019Strategies for Expanding into Emerging PV Markets


Competitors’ move

• Among the Chinese manufacturers that shipped

modules to Oman in Q1 2019, the top 10

manufacturers accounted for 67% of the market

share. Of which, Trina took up the highest

percentage at 21%.

• Though some Chinese manufacturers have

facilities in Turkey, their production lines mainly

supplied the European markets and only a few to

the Middle East as Turkey is excluded from the

EU’s MIP and prices in the Middle East market

are less competitive than that in the European

markets. Market demand in the Middle East is

mainly satisfied by exports from mainland China.

CompanyShipment

volume (MW)

Market share

(%)

Trina 14 21%

Suntech 9 14%

Ningbo Hao Music

Trading Co Ltd4 5%

Restar Solar 3 5%

Amerisolar 3 5%

Yingli 3 4%

Perlight Solar 3 4%

Osda Solar 2 3%

Luxen Solar 2 3%

JA Solar 2 3%

Others 22 33%

Total 66 100%

May 2019Strategies for Expanding into Emerging PV Markets

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Strategies for Expanding into the Omani Market

May 2019

PV Policy

Policy Updates

Product demand

Competitors’ move

• The current module imports are expected to fulfil demand from rooftop and IPP

projects. Trina and Suntech have started supplying modules to Oman. This year,

Oman has begun issuing tenders for 500 MW utility-scale projects, which are

expecting to be completed between 2021 and 2024. Based on the policy

framework, there’s still great potential for Oman’s solar market, so it’s not too

late to enter the market now.

• The mainstream product in Oman is currently multi-Si modules. Mono modules only take

up a small percentage of market share. With most large manufacturers turning to produce

mono modules now, the remaining multi-Si modules could be exported to Oman.


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116

May 2019


The Other 4 Emerging PV Markets

1,900-2,200kWh

1,700-1,900kWh

＜1,500kWh

Annual daily solar radiation, Unit: kWh

Basic Profile

Estimated population in 2017* 33 million

GDP growth rate in 2017* -0.875%

Foreign direct investment in 2018** USD 3.5 billion

Moody’s credit rating of March

2019**A-/A-2 (Stable)

Climate*** desert

Daily solar radiation**** 1,800-2,200/kWh

Cumulative solar installation in

2018******89MW

Source: *The World Bank

**REUTERS

***ASHARQ AL-AWSAT

****Weather Online

*****Global Security.org

******IRENA

1,500-1,700kWh


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