Global Scan of World Energy...

Global Scan of World Energy Trends

Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 2 -

Why Conduct a Global Scan?

• Importance of questioning, understanding our assumptions for energy outlooks – implications for energy security

• First rule of scenario analysis, “understand the present”

• “Backcasting” reveals errors in data and analysis that influence forward thinking

• Models are static, behavior is dynamic• Technology, innovation are difficult to predict


Impact of Assumptions on Forecasts

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

1999$/B

B

ACTUAL

U.S. DOE Annual Outlooks1978-2002


1850

1900

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

•Oil discovered in Titusville, Pennsylvania, 1859; natural gas replaces town gas, 1870s

•Advances in drilling, early seismic, shallow offshore E&P•Long-line pipeline transmission

•Directional drilling, offshore below 250ft water depth

•Pipeline trenching and welding, compression,pressure control, metering; national grid develops

•3-d seismic, horizontal drilling, measurementwhile drilling, offshore below 1,000ft

IT Pathway Mainframes Minis Micros Work Stations ?

•4-d seismic, offshore below 5,000ft

•Offshore below10,000ft

•Oil discovered at Spindletop (Texas), 1901

020,00040,00060,00080,000

100,000

120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000

50 54 58 62 66 70 74 78 82 86 90 94 98 2

U.S. Example: Impact of Technology and Frameworks

Cumulative U.S. Oil & GasProduction, MMBOE(IncludesAlaska)

Not to scale

•Hydrates? GTL?

On a BOE basis, productionhas not yet peaked

Global Energy Markets Trade Programme - 5 -5

OECD and Non-OECD Countries

Non-OECD

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)

Source: NPC 2007


Economic Growth Patterns Are Shifting

North America

South America

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Russia/Caspian

Asia Pacific

Non-OECDOECD

2006

2030 2006 / 2030 ~ $ 40 / 80 Trillion Global GDP

ILLUSTRATIVE PROJECTION

Source EIA, IEA & Other Outlooks Source: NPC 2007


Change is Slow / Difficult

Source: World Energy Outlook 2007, IEA


Range of Projections: Growing Demand

0

300

600

900

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

EIA HIGH EIA REF IEA REFIEA ALT POLICY IEA LOW

QU

AD

RIL

LIO

N B

TU

PE

R Y

EA

R

Source: NPC 2007


... And Energy Demand Growth FollowsHistory Projections

Non-OECDOECD

0

100

200

300

400

500

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

QU

AD

RIL

LIO

N B

TU

PE

R Y

EA

R

Source: NPC 2007


Coal, Oil, and Natural Gas Will Remain Indispensable

Source: IEA REFERENCE CASE

1980 2004 2030

288 QUADRILLION BTU 445 QUADRILLION BTU

BIOMASSNUCLEAR

WIND / SOLAR / GEOTHERMAL

678 QUADRILLION BTU

HYDRO

OIL

NATURAL GAS

COAL

Source: NPC 2007


Energy Consumption Mix in South Asia


Diversification of energy sources


Total Energy Resources

Tril

lion

Bar

rels

Photosynthesis

CoalCoal Wind

Hydro

gy

AnnualSolar Energy

Uranium

GasOil

Annual World Consumption

Source: Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.

Coal

Source: NPC 2007


Global Oil Trade

2000 2030

EXPANDING FLOW TRENDS

Source: NPC 2007


Global LNG Trade

2000

EXPANDING FLOW TRENDS

2030

Source: NPC 2007


Strait of Hormuz

Bosporus

Red Sea

Suez Canal / SumedStrait of Malacca

Panama Canal

Supply Vulnerability Zones

Source: NPC 2007


Share of Net Imports


Net imports (ES2) & Net oil imports (ES3) dependency

Source: CEE calculations and APERC.


World Crude Oil Strategic Stocks, 2006

Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Data

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,000

UnitedStates

France Germany Other OECDEurope

Japan SouthKorea

Mill

ion

Bar

rels

Industry Government-Controlled

Source: EIA International Petroleum (Oil) Stocks Data


Energy Efficiency – Existing Technology

• Coal-fired power plant: ~35%

• Combined Cycle Gas Turbine: ~55%

• Transmission & distribution: 5-10% v 30% loss

• Hummer: ~8 mpg v Tata Nano: ~47 mpg

• CFL v incandescent: 75% less electricity


Energy Efficiency – What Can Changethe Equation?

• Technologies and price signals to facilitate demand-side response

• New energy conversion technologies

• New fuel sources

• New grid materials (superconducting)

• Facilitating frameworks to support market signals, choice, and innovation

Driving Forces

Energy and economy


State of the World

• Energy is necessary for economic growth – Energy resources and industries have been considered

strategic and/or national

– Energy industries have been vertically integrated

– But, there is deregulation or restructuring

• Fossil fuels have been the major source for generating energy, but– These resources are increasingly concentrated in politically

sensitive parts of the world

– Burning of these fuels are increasingly blamed for a variety of environmental problems


State of the World

• How to address environmental concerns in a more competitive industry while fueling economic and social development?– Fossil fuels-based technologies have cost advantages to

“clean” alternatives

– Developing economies want to use these technologies and their fossil resources

– Developed economies do not want to risk slow-down with heavy regulation


Economic Growth Requires Energy

Correlation = 0.86

0

3

6

9

12

15

0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500 1,750 2,000

GDP (Billions of 1995$)

Quad

s

140 Countries (excluded five richest and/or largest energy users)


Energy per Capita Increases with Wealth

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

GDP per capita (1,000 1995$)

MM

Btu

139 countries


Energy Intensity Decreases with Wealth

0

25000

50000

75000

100000

125000

0 10 20 30 40

GDP per capita (1,000 1995$)

EI


Energy Intensity & Income

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Low Lower M iddle U pper M iddle H igh

Incom e C lassificationG D P per capita

1985 in ternational $

E nergy Intensity kg oil eq . per $G D P

Share of G D PA griculture

IndustryServices

38%22%41%

19%30%51%

11%34%55%

3%31%65%

0-1000 1001-3000 3001-10000 10001-

Sam ple of 83 countriesSources: W orld Bank D evelopm ent Indicators, Penn W orld Tables

Figure 1: E nergy Intensity by Incom e G rouping (1995)

Medlock & Soligo (Energy Journal, 2001)


Energy Intensity

Source: EIA, WB income groups

Btu per $GDP


Energy Disparity I

Consumption per capita (MMBtu)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

NorthAmerica

C & SAmerica

Europe Eurasia MiddleEast

Africa Asia &Oceania

World


Energy consumption per capita

Source: EIA, WB income groups

MMBtu


Energy Disparity II

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007


Oil consumption per capita



Oil Consumption Intensity


Oil Affordability


Natural gas consumption per capita


Driving Forces

Global distribution of energy resources relative to demand


Source: Robert L. Bradley Jr. Various publications and presentations.


Hydrocarbon usage & potential (EJ)

1860-1998 Consumption

13508

Resource Base 212193

Additional Occurrences

992000

Source for data: IPCC 2001 Mitigation, p. 236

Exa = 1018

Joules ≅ 0.001 Btu


Hydrocarbon Resources

Resources depending on the level of characterization, technology and market

conditions will be produced with a given level of

uncertainty

Joint SPE, AAPG, SPEE Classification


World Oil Reserves

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300

Asia Pacific

South & Central America

USA

North America

Africa

Former Soviet Union

Middle East

OPEC

WORLD

Billions of Barrels

End 2006End 2000End 1990End 1980

Proved reserves with current technology and prices. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007. OPEC includes Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Angola since 2006.


Oil Resources

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Canad

a

Venez

uela

Saudi

Arabia

Russia USA

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

UAE

Nigeria

Brazil

Mex

icoLib

ya

China

Norway

Algeria

Great

Brit

ianQat

ar

Angola

Austra

liaIn

dia

Bill

ion

Bar

rels

<In

Pla

ce>


World Oil Producing Regions

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

OPEC

Middle East

North America

USA

Africa

Asia Pacific

FSU

South & CentralAmerica

Million b/d

2006

2000

1990

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2007. OPEC includes Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Algeria, Libya, Nigeria, Indonesia, Venezuela, and Angola since 2006.


Major oil trade movements



World Oil Production

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04

Thousa

nd b

/

Non-OPEC

OPEC

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007.


Risks Reflected in Range of Production Projections

* Source: NPC Data Warehouse.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2000 2010 2020 2030

Association for Study of Peak Oil (ASPO)

MIL

LIO

N B

AR

RE

LS

PE

R D

AY

M

ILLI

ON

BA

RR

ELS

P

ER

DA

Y ––

OIL

O

IL

IOC IOC –– averageaverage

EIA Ref CaseIEA Medium–Term Outlook

Source: NPC 2007


World Crude Oil Replenishment(billion barrels)

68

10501208

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1947 Reserves 1948-06Production

2007 Reserves


World Oil Consuming Regions

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

OECD

North America

USA

Asia Pacific

Europe


Middle East

FSU

AfricaMillion b/d

2006

2000

1990



World Oil Demand

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 92 95 98 01 04

Thousa

nd b

/

Non-OECD

OECD

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2007. OECD region includes all of Western Europe; Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic; Turkey; Australia and New Zealand; Japan and South Korea; North America.


World Gas Reserves

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000

World

Middle East

USA

Asia Pacific

Europe

Trillion Cubic Feet

End 2006End 2000End 1990



World Gas Producing Regions

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

110


Middle East

Europe

USA

WORLD

Trillion CF

200620001990



Major natural gas trade movements



World Natural Gas Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

Bcf/d

Rest of WorldFSUU.S.

Russian productionis 85% of FSU



Range of Global Supply Projections –Gas

Source: NPC Survey for the Oil & Gas Study.

0 -

100 -

200 -

300 -

400 -

500 -

600 -

l1980

l1990

l2000

l2010

l2020

l2030

BIL

LIO

N C

UB

IC F

EE

T P

ER

DA

Y 498 EIA REF.

452 IEA REF.

380 HISTORICALTREND

Source: NPC 2007


Regional Gas Supply Outlooks

Source: NPC 2007


World Natural Gas Replenishment(trillion cubic feet)

1041

2500

6405

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000


2007 Reserves


World Gas Consuming Regions

0 10 20 30 40 50

OECD

USA

Europe

Middle East

Africa Trillion CF

200620001990



World Natural Gas Demand

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

65

67

69

71

73

75

77

79

81

83

85

87

89

91

93

95

97

99

01

03

05

Bcf

Rest of World

FSU

Rest of OECD

U.S.



Proved coal reserves at end 2006



Coal Supply Projections (All Forecasts Normalized to 6.5 BST in 2005)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Sho

rt T

ons

(Bill

ions

)

EIA-Ref IEA-Ref IEA-Alt ASPOCCSP-IGSM-Ref CCSP-IGSM-L1 CCSP-Merge-Ref CCSP-Merge-L1CCSP-MiniCam-Ref CCSP-MiniCam-L1 Oakridge HGSS Oakridge LGSSEC WETO Ref EC WETO C Constr EC WETO H2

Source: NPC 2007


World Coal Producing Regions

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Asia Pacific

USA

FSU


Million Tons Oil Equivalent

200620001990



World Coal Consuming Regions

0 500 1000 1500 2000

OECD

North America

Europe

Africa

Middle East

Million Tons Oil Equivalent

200620001990



World Coal Replenishment(billion tons)

256

206

909

0100200300400500

600700800900

1000


2007 Reserves


World Electricity

Hydro17%

Thermal66%

Other2%Nuclear

15%

2005 Total = 17,351 Billion KwhSource: U.S. EIA

Hydro20%

Thermal68%

Other2%Nuclear

10%

2005 Total = 3,872 GW


World Net Thermal Electricity Producing Regions

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000

North America

Asia & Oceania

Eurasia

Europe

Africa

Middle East

South & Central AmericaTWh

2005200019901980

Source: EIA


World Net Hydroelectric Producing Regions

0 200 400 600 800

North America

Europe

Asia & Oceania


Eurasia

Africa

Middle East

TWh

2005200019901980

Source: EIA


World Net Nuclear Producing Regions

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200

Europe

North America

Asia & Oceania

Eurasia

Africa


Middle EastTWh

2005200019901980

Source: EIA


Nuclear Power Outlook

Source: NPC 2007


Renewable Generation

0 50 100 150 200

South & CentralAmerica

Asia & Oceania

North America

Europe

TWh

2005

2000

1990

1980

Source: EIA


World Wind Power Installed Capacity


Future of Wind Power

Source: Global Wind Energy Outlook 2006, GWEC


Solar Technology

Sol10 Solar Tower near Seville, Spain

624 solar mirrors (heliostats) concentrate the sun at the top of a 35

storey tower

11 MW

Solar Thermal

CA, USA - 354 MW

Several more under construction

Expectation: 5,800 MW of new capacity by 2012


Global Cumulative PV Capacity

Source: Solar Generation IV – 2007, European Photovoltaic Industry Association


U.S. Import and Export Shipments of Solar Thermal Collectors

Source: EIA

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1000

sqft

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Imports

Exports


U.S. Shipments of Photovoltaic Cells and Modules

0

30,000

60,000

90,000

120,000

150,000

180,000

210,000

Peak k

W

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Source: EIA

Driving Forces

Key factors impacting energy demand


The Asian “Gulp”: Asia is Swing Demand

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

65 67 69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5

Thousa

nds

b

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Per

cent of W

or

Asia Pacific

% Asia

Sources: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2004


Development means cars!

Source: ExxonMobil Energy Outlook


Transport as Percentage of Delivered Oil Consumption, 2003

Source: ???

India, 29.2%

China, 36.0%

Japan, 38.1%

Middle East, 38.9%

South Korea, 40.0%

Russia, 40.0%

Other Non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, 41.3%

Other Central and South America, 46.9%

Mexico, 48.7%

Other Non-OECD Asia, 49.6%

Canada, 51.2%

Africa, 52.7%

Brazil, 53.5%

OECD Europe, 56.3%

U.S., 67.4%

Australia/New Zealand, 75.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%Source: NCEP


0

300

600

900

1200

1500

2000 2010 2020 2030

Millions

Average Growth/Yr. 2000 – 2030

2.1%

1.0%

5.1%Advanced ICE/Hybrid

Light Duty Vehicle TrendsLight Duty Fleet

Non-OECD

OECD

Non-OECD

OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030

MBD

0.0%

4.2%

Light Duty Fuels Demand


1.1%



Transportation Fuel Demand



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 2005 2030


1.4%

MBD

Power Generation

Industrial

Res/Comm

Transportation

-0.2%

1.3%

0.2%

1.8%

Global Liquids Demand by SectorRail

~ 65 MBD in 2030

Light Duty Vehicles

Heavy Duty Vehicles

Aviation

Marine



Electricity is Vital for Economic Development



What Fuel to Use for Generation?



Installed generation capacity

Driving Forces

Key factors impacting energy supply


Energy Sector Investment Requirements: Who Will Invest?

T o ta l in v e s tm e n t: 1 6 tr ill io n d o lla rs

O il 19%

E lectric ity60%

C o al 2%G as 19%

O th erR efin in g

E & D 7 2 %

1 3 %1 5 %O th er

R efin in g

E & D 7 2 %

1 3 %1 5 %

E & D

L N G C h a in

T & D an d S to rag e

55%

37%

8%

E & D

L N G C h a in

T & D an d S to rag e

55%

37%

8%

P o w er g en era tio n

T & D54%

46% P o w er g en era tio n

T & D54%

46%

M in in g

S h ip p in g an d p o rts

12%

88% M in in g

S h ip p in g an d p o rts

12%

88%

Source: IEA Global Energy Investment Outlook 2003

Cost inflation: $21.9 trillion is the new estimate.


Access to Hydrocarbon Resources is Becoming Increasingly Constrained

N a tio n a l c o m p a n ie s o n ly

(S a u d i A ra b ia , K u w a it, M e x ic o )

3 5 %

L im ite d a c c e s s - N a tio n a l

c o m p a n ie s 2 2 %

P ro d u c tio n s h a rin g

1 2 %

C o n c e s s io n2 1 %

Ira q1 0 %

1 ,0 3 2 b illio n b a rre ls

Source: IEA Global Energy Investment Outlook 2003


World Oil Surplus Production Capacity

Source: Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2006

Saudi Arabia

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

1991

-199

7 Ave

rage

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Mill

ions

of B

arre

ls p

er D

ay

Saudi Arabia

Source: EIA Short-term energy outlook, Sep06


Price Volatility

Sources: U.S. EIA; NYMEX

$0

$2

$4

$6

$8

$10

$12

$14

$16

$18

Feb-8

9

Feb-9

0

Feb-9

1

Feb-9

2

Feb-9

3

Feb-9

4

Feb-9

5

Feb-9

6

Feb-9

7

Feb-9

8

Feb-9

9

Feb-0

0

Feb-0

1

Feb-0

2

Feb-0

3

Feb-0

4

Feb-0

5

Feb-0

6

Feb-0

7

$/M

MB

tu

0

5

10

15

20

25O

il:N

atu

ral

Gas

Pri

ce R

atio

U.S. Gulf Coast No 2 Diesel Low Sulfur Spot Price FOB($/MMBtu)U.S. Gulf Coast No. 2 Heating Oil Spot Price FOB($/MMBtu)U.S. Gulf Coast Residual Fuel Oil 1.0 % Sulfur LP SpotPrice CIF ($/MMBtu)Henry Hub Monthly Average Spot Price ($/MMBtu)

Actual Ratio, Crude Oil:Gas Prices

Rough 6:1 heat value ratio


Role of financial trading

Source: ESAI

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

$Bill

ion

Total physical crude

Total futures WTI crude

Low-Range Notional Total TradeValue

High-Range Notional Total TradeValue

Source: ESAI


Climate Change Dominates Environmental Uncertainties

CO2 Emissions


Alternatives

• Many options available but technologies remain– Incremental (wind, GTL, NGV)

– Expensive (solar)

– Experimental (wave power, biofuels from algae or cellulosic ethanol)

– Uncertain with respect to environmental impacts (corn ethanol)


60% of Emissions Growth in Industrializing Regions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

BIL

LIO

N M

ET

RIC

TO

NS

Non-OECDOECD

Source: EIA 2006

Build blue and then yellow

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS

Source: NPC 2007


Capital Costs5,289

3,185

2,025 1,9101,550 1,476 1,440

1,206 1,079 991 965

440 400 325 320

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Munici

pal S

olid W

aste

Solar P

hotovolta

ic

Geother

mal

Solar The

rmal

Nuclear

Biomass

Fuel C

ell

Advanc

ed Coal

Pulveriz

ed Coa

l

Oil/Gas

Stre

am Wind

Combin

ed-C

ycle (C

onve

ntional)

Combin

ed-C

ycle (A

dvanc

ed)

Combu

stion

Tur

bine (C

onve

ntiona

l)

Combu

stion

Tur

bine (A

dvanc

ed)

Source: Kyoto Report - 1998 Energy Information Administration (EIA)

With recent cost inflation, these costs have probably increased about 50%


Capital Costs of Different Generation Technologies

$1,000-$2,000 per

kWe

$1,000-$2,000 per

kWe

$400-$800 per kWe

$1,000-$1,500 per

kWe

WindNuclearNatural GasCoal

Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity -- 2005 Update, by IEA and NEA

With recent cost inflation, these costs have probably increased about 50%


Source: The Cost of Generating Electricity, a study carried out by PB Power for the Royal Academy of Engineering, March 2004.


Source: The Cost of Generating Electricity, a study carried out by PB Power for the Royal Academy of Engineering, March 2004.


Levelized Costs of Different Generation Technologies at 10% discount

O&M 13-40%

$45-140 per

MWh

Wind

$65-100 per

MWh

Micro Hydro

$200 (24% avail)

Solar

$30-70 per

MWh

$30-50 per

MWh

$40-63 per

MWh

$35-60 per

MWhInv 70%

O&M 20%Fuel 10%

Inv 20%O&M 7%Fuel 73%

Inv 50%O&M 15%Fuel 35%

CHPNuclearNatural Gas

Coal

Source: Projected Costs of Generating Electricity -- 2005 Update, by IEA and NEA

Natural gas price range of $3.5-$4.5 per MMBtu

Date post:	13-Jul-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	3 times
Download:	0 times

Global Scan of World Energy...

Documents