Date post: | 14-Apr-2017 |
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S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
W H YW H A TH O W
Deep in our hearts, we would all choose a scenario with no surprises. —Pierre Wack
W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
BECAUSE WE CAN ACT BECAUSE WE SEEK TO ANTICIPATE UNKNOWNS (DISCONTINUITIES) BECAUSE TRANSISTIONS ARE ACCELERATING
W H Y N O W ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
BECAUSE WE CAN ACT
… at least more effectively than we could before…
Technology Climate models Tracking sea ice/glacier loss Satellite imagery Spatial modeling
(Cellular Automata)
We understand better the impact of our choices
We know we can do anything we put our minds to
W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
DISCONTINUITIES
i.e. atomic warfare: It’s not about the future (Herman Kahn).
We know the future will be different from the past, so why project?
Exogenous events unanticipated by science
‘We live in Extremistan, not Mediocristan’—Nassim Nicholas Taleb
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
W H Y S C E N A R I O S ?BECAUSE TRANSITIONS ARE ACCELERATING:
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
P R E – T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
F I R S T T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
S E C O N D T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
S E C O N D A N D T H I R D T R A N S I T I O N
W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Top graphs more like scenarios Timeline based on current
knowledge / technologies
W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions: Policy likely inadequate Markets likely to lead to regime
change
W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions: Policy likely to favor natural gas Markets likely to favor solar PV
W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
AREN’T THESE PROJECTIONS? Assumptions: Markets lag on decarbonization Policy best tool for eliminating
liquid fuels for passenger vehicles
W H A T A R E S C E N A R I O S ?
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
Not about the futureNot about predictionsIT’S ABOUT CONSEQUENCES FROM CHOICES WE MAKE RIGHT NOW.
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
LADIES HOME JOURNAL, 1900
F A L S E S O M E W H A T T R U E T R U T H Y
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADVERTISING CAMPAIGN FOR HILDEBRAND’S CHOCOLATE, 1900 Themes: Transportation, LeisureAllegory?: North Pole warmingSci-Fi?
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
ADVERTISEMENT FROM JAPAN: MID-CENTURY Themes: Transportation, Urbanization
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S
P O P U L A R S C E N A R I O S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
FILM CONCEPT ART, 2006 Themes: Transportation, Overconsumption, Hopelessness, Urbanization
S C E N A R I O S N O W
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
APPLETON ON LYNASSix degrees of climate inferno: Below 2˚ = avoid apocalypse. IPCC hasn’t imagined
Dante’s darkest scenarios.
1˚2˚3˚4˚5˚6˚ A
P O
C A
L Y
P S
EN
O A
P O
C A
L Y
P S
E
?
N O
I P
C C
D A
T A7+˚
1˚2˚3˚4˚5˚6˚7˚
Drought in W. US‘Day turns to night’
Flight from S. Spain
Super-hurricane Odessa: Texas
Mass extinction
Beyond IPCC estimate*
3˚
S C E N A R I O S N O W
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
REVISED IPCC SCENARIOS (2013) * Predicted change from period 1986-2005
Source: IPCC
2˚4˚5˚6˚7+˚
Predicted temperature increases under two scenariosRise in average surface temperature by 2081-2100*
Lowest scenario (RCP 2.6) Highest scenario (RCP 8.5)
C O N V E N T I O N A L
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
MARKET FORTRESS WORLD ECO-COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISMNEW SUSTAIN-ABILITY
Growth outpaces efficiency
Private Sector, International banks, WTO
UN is ‘toothless
Brown Tech
Government Initiatives
Global Citizens movement
May be sustainable, but may be undesirable
Could evolve into New Sustainability
'Planetary apartheid’
Rich in protective enclaves
Fortress collapse would lead to breakdown
Breakdown
Think Mad Max
Could have a ‘second wind’, evolving into Eco-Communalism
Earth Stewards
Think Gandhi and friends in Hobbiton
Permaculture
Market-constraining policies
Poor and Rich de-polarize
UN supersedes nation-state
Green Tech
B R E A K D O W N S U S T A I N A B I L I T Y
W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
Private Sector
International banks, WTO
Brown Tech
Government
Global Citizens movement
The rich—sort-of
Survivalist enthusiasts
Hippies
Global Citizens Movement
The middle class
UN
Green Tech
MARKET FORTRESS WORLD ECO-COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISMNEW SUSTAIN-ABILITY
W I N N E R S A N D L O S E R S
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
MARKET FORTRESS WORLD ECO-COMMUNAL
POLICY BARBARISMNEW SUSTAIN-ABILITY
Governments
Private enterprise
The poor
Everyone
The rich
No-one
S C E N A R I O M A T R I XOGILVY AND SCHWARTZ
List factors and trendsChoose 2 most criticalAssemble in matrixList potential outcomes in respective cells
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
A B
A
B
Pop. Growth
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Outcome
Low High
Low
High
Ener
gy D
esce
nt
Population growth
Global governance
Oil prices
Urbanization
Energy descent
Solar technology
Etc.
D I S C U S S I O N
C M P 6 9 6 0 G L O B A L S U S T A I N A B L E D E V E L O P M E N T
WHAT REASONS DO WE HAVE TO BE PESSIMISTIC / OPTIMISTIC?WHAT DO WE THINK IS LIKELY?WHAT ARE SOME DISCONTINUITIES WE HAVEN’T CONSIDERED?