23
Global Teak Trade in the Aftermath of
Myanmar’s Log Export Ban
3rd World Teak Conference 2015, Guayaquil, Ecuador Walter Kollert, FAO & Przemyslaw J. Walotek , WaKa Serviços de
Investimentos Florestais
Myanmar & Teak
• No 1 in natural teak
forests (50%)
• No 1 producer of teak
logs (25%)
• No 3 in planted teak
area (ca. 400,000 ha)
1) Myanmar - a teak heavyweight
2) Log export ban: 1 April 2014
3) Impacts ?
• Illegal harvests, log smuggling,
illegal exports
• Price collaps in log auctions -
no international buyers
• Market opportunity for teak
from Africa and Latin America
• Price increase in consumer
countries due to scarcity of
high quality logs?
Introduction
• Official statistics of national customs
departments
• Global Trade Information Services (GTIS)
• HS code
440349 other tropical roundwood
440729 other tropical sawnwood
• Teak export data from Myanmar not
available. Myanmar exports have to be
assessed from imports of major teak
importing countries
Methodology
1) Trade Volume
China 10%
India 74%
Thailand 16%
Global teak imports (avg. 2005-2014) 1.07 million m3/yr, 487 million USD/yr
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China India Thailand
Share of imports from Myanmar
455,000 m3 (43%)
81%
25%
99%
Colombia
Panama
Laos
Costa Rica
Taiwan
Myanmar
1,111
1,625
3,638
3,770
3,896
84,580
China (m3/yr) from 6 major countries (>1000 m3/yr)
India (m3/yr) from 10 major countries (> 20,000 m3/yr)
Nigeria
Togo
Panama
Benin
Malaysia
Costa Rica
Ivory Coast
Ecuador
Ghana
Myanmar
21,259
25,039
36,451
38,436
40,169
68,158
75,037
80,178
98,997
200,169
Teak imports to ...(avg. 2005-2014)
Roundwood imports by major countries Trend 2000-2014
m3
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Total
India
China Thailand
557,000 m3
1.236 million m3
Share of imports from Myanmar to
China, India, Thailand, 2000-2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
%
Imports by China and India from Africa
and Latin America, 2000-2014
Africa
Latin America
Asia (w/o Myanmar)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000m
3
Emerging roundwood traders
Africa (2000-2014) Latin America (2000-2014)
Ghana
Ivory Coast
Benin
Togo
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
m3
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
m3
Ecuador
Costa Rica
Panama
Colombia
2) Trade Value
Plantation logs, Panama Natural forest logs, Myanmar
Unit price of China imports 2005-2014
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
D/m
3
Myanmar
Myanmar trendline +4.1%/yr
Africa Lat Am
Africa, Asia, Lat Am trendline +3.1%
Asia
Unit price of India imports 2005-2014
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US
D/m
3
Myanmar trendline +3.7%/yr
Myanmar
Africa
Lat Am
Africa, Asia, Lat Am trendline +4.5%/yr
Asia
3) Log Export Ban
China imports Jan 2012 to Dec 2014, by months
Volume Unit price Myanmar Laos
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
m3
Log export
ban
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
US
D/m
3
Log export
ban
India imports from Africa Jan 2012 to Oct 2014, by months
Volume Unit price Ghana Benin Ivory Coast
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Ju
l13
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
m3
Log export
ban
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Ju
l14
Oct1
4
US
D/m
3
Log export
ban
Togo
India imports from Latin America Jan 2012 to Dec 2014, by months
Volume Unit price Ecuador Colombia
Costa Rica
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
m3
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan12
Apr1
2
Jul1
2
Oct1
2
Jan13
Apr1
3
Jul1
3
Oct1
3
Jan14
Apr1
4
Jul1
4
Oct1
4
US
D/m
3
Log export
ban
Log export
ban
Summary & Conclusions (1)
1. National customs data on teak imports according
to HS (Harmonized System)
2. Myanmar is a teak heavyweight - impact of log
export ban ?
3. Global trade in teak roundwood > 1 million m3/yr;
dominated by India, China and Thailand
4. Trade volume more than doubled since 2000,
trade value more than quadrupled
5. Emerging teak roundwood exporters:
Africa: Ghana, Ivory Coast, Benin, Togo, Nigeria
Lat Am: Ecuador, Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia
6. Rise in prices: 3% to 4.5 % per year on average
since 2005
7. Global demand for teak expected to grow
8. Future belongs to teak plantations
9. Log export ban: different impact on imports into
China and India
Summary & Conclusions (2)
Thank you for your attention !
3rd World Teak Conference (WTC3)
Guayaquil, Ecuador, 12 May 2015
