Global Trends: Global Financial Crisis

Source: UN/DESA

Global Trends: Global Financial CrisisGlobal GDP Growth

(Percent, quarter over quarter, annualized)

Source: IMF

Global Trends: FOOD CRISIS

Source: FAO

EARLY WARNING INDICATORS A. FLASH QUARTERLY GDP

(NOW-CASTING)

Activity GDP share Primary data source / estimation method

Oil and Gas 41% Actual data on quantity produced and the corresponded prices from Ministry of Oil and Gas

Refining and petrochemicals

7% Monthly Financial statement from the producers

Manufacturing 4% Turnover estimates, export values/quantities Construction 7% Production survey, labor statistics, construction

material index Services 41% Production Survey

Etc. Ministry of Finance, Sectoral Ministries

The First Estimate of Overall Economic Activities Imputation for the Last Month of the Quarter Timeliness 10 Days After end of the Ref. Period

QUARTERLY FLASH GDP

ACTUAL VS. FLASH GDP

EARLY WARNING INDICATORS B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP

o Calculated using Production Approacho One Month Timelinesso Utilization of Monthly Short Term Indictors such as:

Administrative Data Price Statistics Monthly Survey Results Monthly Financial Statements of the Large Enterprises

EARLY WARNING INDICATORS B. MONTHLY FLASH GDP

Better timeliness Less accuracy, but acceptable Availability of strong monthly set of information Strengthen the Flash Quarterly GDP Strengthen the high frequency indicators

EARLY WARNING INDICATOR C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC

INDICATORS Need for quick, broad indicator for overall economic

activity for immediate future Extracting signals and producing estimates for a

better understanding of cyclical movements This work is currently under construction Weighting system will be derived

EARLY WARNING INDICATOR C. COMPOSITE LEADING ECONOMIC

INDICATORS 20% 30%6.9%  Money supply, M2  10% 6.9% Nominal Interest rate    5% 6.9% CPI inflation  5% 6.9% MSI stock market index  5%

30% Foreign Direct Investment  5%

 15% 12.50%

 15% 6.25% 7.50%  6.25% 2.5% 2.5%

 2.5%

General Financial sectorBusiness confidence indexNumber of workersTotal retail salesGovernment revenue

Hydrocarbon sector

External sectorOil price, Oman crude monthly average price 

Real Estate

Total exportsTotal imports

Hydrocarbon sector Production  

Building permits, non-gov. Hotel (4-5 star) revenueConstruction Sector Business Confidence Index

CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED

Rallying for resources Timeliness, periodicity and availability of high frequency

indicators – historic emphasis annual data Composite Leading Indicator

Lack of sufficient indicators Methodological improvements in existing data

Thank you