Rashid SumailaFisheries Centre, University of British Columbia
Global warming as a new and emerging challenge to the sustainable use
of ocean fish resources
Livelihoods and Wealth Creation• Fish is primary source of animal
protein to nearly 1 bn people;• 80% of world fish catch is from
developing countries;• 35 million people derive income from
fishing, 170 million if post-fishing activities are included.
© Bénard/Andia.fr/Still Pictures
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van der Meer & Sumaila (in prep.)
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Even without factoring in global warming fisheries are in trouble
Martell (1999)
Bluefin tuna in the Atlantic …
Lingcod in British Columbia …
Global warming impacts• Productivity & distribution of fish biomass will be affected:
• Shifts in distributional ranges of marine species;• Changes in ocean primary productivity;• Shifts in migration patterns of biological community;• Increases in frequency and severity of coral bleaching;• Mortalities and physiological stress by expansion of oxygen
minimum zones and hypoxia areas;• Ocean acidification affects calcification, other physiological
processes and growth;• Jellyfish explosions.
Cheung, Pauly et al. (2010); Hoegh-Guldberg and Bruno (2010); Brander (2010
Impact of climate change on fisheries• Climate change will impact human welfare:
• Catches;• Food security;• Catch (landed) values;• Cost of fishing;• Profits to fishing companies;• Income to fishers;• Economic rent to resource owners;• The distribution of benefits to different countries, regions and
groups.
Sumaila and Cheung (2010)
Let’s consider the Mexican EEZWhat are the potential climate change impacts on fish biomass distribution?How will change in fish biomass amount and distribution affect the kind and amount of
fish catch?What are the economic impacts?
How will the changes above likely affect gross revenues (landed values) and its distribution to participants in Mexico’s fisheries?
Lam, Cheung and Sumaila (in press)
Developed & runfisheries models for Mexico
Under two IPCC climate change scenarios:
(a) MILD scenario:
Committed climate change experiment;
Climate forcing agents stabilized at the end of 20th Century levels.
(a) SEVERE scenario:
720 ppm stabilization experiment (SRES A1B);
Very rapid economic growth;
Low population growth;
Moderate use of resources with a balanced use of technologies.
Sumaila and Cheung (2010)
Global climate change projections
Climate change-impact
• Probability of occurrence by:
• Temperature• Depth limits• Habitats• Distance from sea-ice
Predicted future species distribution & productivity
Current speciesdistribution
Population dynamics
Predicting catch from macroecology
Range areaPrimary productivity (e.g. Behrenfeld & Falkowski 1997)
Catch potential
∝
Cheung et al. (2008) Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 365: 187-197
Calculating implications of climate change for landed values
Catch potential
Cheung, Pauly et al. (2010)
=*
Price, discount rate
Fisheries Economic Research Unit/SAU
databases
Results: Predicted change in fish catch
and value in Mexican EEZ SEVERE scenario catch SEVERE scenario catch value
Lam, Cheung and Sumaila (in press)
Thanks for your attention
Photo by Asep, TNC