GLOBAL GLOBAL WARMING WARMING

QUANTIFYING GLOBAL QUANTIFYING GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

CE/AE/EnSci 524B

Are humans the culprit?

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Temperatures over the last 1000 years

Temperature change in North America

Water precipitation in North America

Source: National Resources Defense Council

Heat balance factors in the atmosphere

The Greenhouse Effect

Heat balance over Earth

Blackbody radiationBoth the Sun and Earth emit radiation as a function of temperature, according to the Stefan-Boltzmann Law (derived from Planck’s Law): E = σAT4

The electromagnetic spectrumProgressively more heat is released at higher temperatures and wavelengths become shorter with higher temperatures

Maximum intensity at a temperature

Earth and solar radiation

Calculate the power emitted by Earth and peak wavelength for Sun and Earth

Solar Spectrum

The real solar spectrum

Screening by the atmosphere

Vibration energy imparted to CO2 molecules – released as infrared

http://www.ucar.edu/learn/images/carbon.gif

Global trends in major greenhouse gases

The most important greenhouse gas - water

Climate change impacts

                                                                                                                              

SOURCES OF GREENHOUSE GASES

                                                                                                                              

Sources of greenhouse gases

Source Category

1990 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Landfills 172.2 147.4 138.5 134.0 130.7 126.2 126.8 131.2

Natural Gas Systems

128.3 133.6 131.8 127.4 132.1 131.8 130.6 125.9

Enteric Fermentation

117.9 118.3 116.7 116.8 115.6 114.5 114.6 115.0

Coal Mining 81.9 62.6 62.8 58.9 56.2 55.6 52.4 53.8

Manure Management

31.2 36.4 38.8 38.8 38.1 38.9 39.3 39.1

Wastewater Treatment

24.8 31.7 32.6 33.6 34.3 34.7 35.8 36.8

Petroleum Systems

20.0 18.8 18.5 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.1 17.1

Rice Cultivation

7.1 7.5 7.9 8.3 7.5 7.6 6.8 6.9

Stationary Sources

7.8 7.4 6.9 7.1 7.3 6.7 6.4 6.7

Abandoned Coal Mines

6.1 8.1 7.2 7.3 7.7 6.9 6.4 6.4

Mobile Sources

4.8 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.7

Petrochemical Production

1.2 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5

Iron and Steel 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.0

Agricultural Residue Burning

0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8

Total for U.S.

605.3 579.5 569.3 557.3 554.2 546.7 542.3 544.9

Methane Quantities Released by Different Sources in Tg

Anthropogenic Methane Sources

Anthropogenic Methane Sources

GreenhouseGas EmissionsBy Gas (1997)

                                  

US Greenhouse Gas Emissions /capita & /$ GDP

                                                

Sources of Gas (1997)

                  

US ENERGYCONSUMPTIONBY ENERGY SOURCE

                                    

US ENERGY CONSUMPTION (Quadrillion BTU)

                                  

CO2 EMISSIONS From FOSSIL FUEL COMBUSTION

                                    

END USE SECTOR EMISSIONS OF CO2 FROM FOSSIL FUEL

                                        

SOURCES OF CH4

(farts and belches)

                                             

SOURCES OF N2O

                                             

SOURCES OF HFCs, PCFs and SF6

Quiz

• http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/impacts.html