Globalization, Megacities and Waste Management

Antonis MavropoulosCEO EPEM SA, ISWA STC Chair

amavrop@epem.gr

Aim and contentsAim• To frame megacities

within globalization context

• To outline the challenge of waste management in megacities

Contents• Notes on globalization

– Economy– Knowledge– Governance

• Understanding Megacities & SWM– Globalization– Growth– Poverty & slums– Governance

• Conclusions

Project: globalization and SWM

Overall scope of work: to demonstrate the opportunities as well as the threats that globalization poses to waste management and create a conceptual framework for a more successful adaptation of them in future plans and activities.

Modules:• Megacities• Informal Sector• Recycling Markets• International Aid

1. Notes on Globalization

• Economy• Knowledge - culture• Governance

Economy

• Global market - Increase in FDI• Openness – income distribution• Global middle class coming• Increase in global trade Vs Industrial

production

1990-2030: Middle class increase by 4

“Trade flows are not significantly higher than they were prior to 1914 if

one measures them against GDP, but loom much larger if they are

compared against industrial production.“

Knowledge - culture

• Interconnectivity• Flows of trends, ideas, practices,

cultures• Green Economy & Environmental

protection as a trend• Internet• Consumption trends

Interconnectivity

New Era?

The power of all?

Governance

• A key – intervention• Global stakeholders increase their

influence• Local stakeholders are more open to

global input• Megacities are deeply involved and

influenced by governance patterns

Governance & SWM

• Globalisation increasingly difficult for states to rely only on national regulation e.g. recycling & zero waste

• Growing demand for global regulation, e.g. waste trafficking, raw materials

• Globalisation involvement of a growing diversity of participants and their coalitions in addressing SWM

• Direct increase of international financial flows dedicated to SWM creates a new arena for decision-making

2. Understanding megacities

• We live in the first urban & overcrowded century

• By 2050: 2/3 of the world’s population will live in cities

• Megacities are growing both in number and in population

2008 Megacities

Numbers to remember

• 1950: 2 megacities• 2015: 33 megacities• 27 of them in

developing countries

• 2003: 283 million people – 75% in developing countries

• 2015: 360 million people – 82% in developing countries

3 archetypes

• Emerging: high growth rates – spatial growth – high informal growth with huge gaps in municipal services

• Transitional: slower growth, better municipal services, informal settlements under control

• Mature: less than 1% growth rates, infrastructure in place, older population

Dynamics and growth

Growth rates• Population: 2,5 – 6%• Spatial Growth:

Bangkok from 67 to 426 km2 in 40 years

• Economic Growth: Buenos Aires: 45% of the national GDP, Dhaka: 60% of the national GDP

• Complexity growth: the mixer never stops

Waste growth• 44% increase of food

waste worldwide between 2005 – 2025

• Asia: from 278 to 416 millions tons per year

• With current practices: CO2 emissions will increase from 34 to 48 millions tons per year!

• Rates 4 – 9%

Cities growth 2007 - 2025

Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011

Dwellings in Latin America

Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011

Decline of household size

Source: Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March 2011

The fluid city

Source: Urban World: Design & Research For Qinzhou Masterplan, Feng Xu, 2010

Systems far from equilibrium

• Drivers of spatial growth: randomness, physical constraints, natural advantage, comparative advantage

• Spatial growth is not predictable • There are physical & managerial limits • Growth can be simulated using

epidemics or diffusion models• Megacities operate in three rather than

two dimensions

Consequences to SWM

• SW quantities increase rapidly• Infrastructure comes always too late• SWM Master plans are almost

meaningless• Land required for SWM is not available• SWM services are hardly managed from

a single center

Poverty and slums

• Symbiosis of extremes in the same shell – extreme inequality

• Informal areas cover 30-50% of the population and usually more than 20% of the city area

• 40-70% of the growth is out of any planning

• OECD: poverty and social exclusion lead to significant but not accounted costs

• Megacities as patchwork

Source: GlobeScan, MRC McLean Hazel, 2008, Megacities Challenges – A stakeholder perspective, Siemens AG, Corporate Communications (CC)

Consequences to SWM

• Informal sector plays a very important role

• Collection frequency and coverage in slum areas are very weak or even not delivered – usually less than 10% of the slums has a kind of collection service

• Different city patches, with different municipal services and infrastructure create different SWM practices

• Uniform or centralized approaches are not suitable

Regarding Governance

• Governance of the unpredicted, non planned, high and complex growth

• Usually authorities are outgrown by city’s expansion

• Urban planning tends to be reactive at best

• Fragmentation of administrative jurisdiction is a real barrier

• Lack of any systematic approach to decision making

Priorities

Source: GlobeScan, MRC McLean Hazel, 2008, Megacities Challenges – A stakeholder perspective, Siemens AG, Corporate Communications (CC)

• SWM budget 3-15%, roughly 80-90% for collection

• Asia spends about 25 $ billions/ year – it is going to 50 until 2025

• Lack of reliable information and monitoring – a systematic problem

SWM and governance

• Waste Management and Cleanliness of the city are indicators of good governance

• Suitability and effectiveness of the services provided to slums and poorer areas is a measure of the successful management of urban poverty

reduction of health risks by inappropriate waste collection

Megacities and globalization

• They are the interface of their countries with global economy & culture

• They are parts of the waste trafficking and the resource management global network

• They are Global Risk Areas due to their:– High population density– High integration and interconnection

with the rest of the world– High vulnerability to natural disasters

Why global risk areas?

• First, their scale and complexity make it difficult to provide the lifeline and transportation infrastructure necessary for risk reduction

• Second, their massive environmental “footprint” can act as both a trigger and an indirect effect of a disaster situation. In other words, mega-cities’ urban ecologies can exacerbate a natural hazard

• Third, their concentrations of industry also exacerbate mega-cities’ disaster vulnerability.

• Fourth, many mega-cities are usually located in geographically hazardous locations such as coastal areas or seismically active zones, making them susceptible to floods, windstorms, wild fires, earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes

• Fifth, mega-cities contain incredible social diversity, the greatest disparities in wealth, and large-scale “illegal” immigrants and squatter settlements, leaving marginalized groups particularly vulnerable

Only 10% of the planet is considered remote!

Issues to be considered

• The role of informal sector• Technologies and systems applied• Stereotypic thinking is not capable to

provide solutions – forget the usual dilemmas

• It is absolutely necessary to control waste generation as soon as possible

…and some tips

• Strategic Urban SWM plan instead of Master Plans – priorities according vulnerability – inclusivity as a way to handle the complexity

• Patchwork of solution for patchwork of conditions – not one solution fits all

• Analyze successes and failures• Plan for gradual improvements is more

efficient than waiting for substantial infrastructure delivery

• Study the informal sector dynamics• Occupy land as soon as possible even

in small pieces• Check the possibility of underground

developments to reduce logisitcs• Emergency response for SWM crises is

more than necessary

But above all

• Create the core of the human capital required to deal the problem

• Use coaching instead of typical consulting projects

• Invest in training and capacity building in order to prepare local understanding with global principles

The other side of megacities

• Resources concentration • Innovation• Human creativity• Megacities are ideal places for social, Earth,

environmental and medical scientists to investigate the impact of socio-economic and political activities on environmental change and vice versa, and to identify solutions to the worst problems. For these reasons, megacity research has the potential to contribute substantially to global justice and peace – and thereby prosperity.

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTIONamavrop@epem.gr

Suggested readings1. Solid Waste Management in the World’s Cities, UN HABITAT Book, 2010 2. Urban World: Mapping the Economic Power of Cities, Mc Kinsey, March

20113. GlobeScan, MRC McLean Hazel, 2008, Megacities Challenges – A

stakeholder perspective, Siemens AG, Corporate Communications (CC)4. Waste Management 2030+, Antonis Mavropoulos, Waste Management

World , December 20105. Megacities and waste management in transition countries, Antonis

Mavropoulos, ISWA World Congress 2010, Hamburg 6. Bijaya K. Adhikari, Suzelle Barrington, 2006, Predicted growth of world

urban food waste and methane production, Waste Management & Research 2006: 24: 421–433

7. Theo Kötter, 2004, Risks and Opportunities of Urbanization and Megacities, Proceedings of FIG Working Week 2004 in Athens, FIG, Copenhagen.

8. Frauke Kraas, 2003, Megacities as Global Risk Areas, Petermanns Geographische Mitteilungen, 147, 2003/4

9. Panayotou Theodore, July 2000, Globalization and Environment, CID Working Paper No. 53, Environment and Development Paper No.1.

10. Sachs Jeffrey, 2008, “Common Wealth: Economics for a crowded planet”, Penguin Books.