Michigan Solar Market PotentialAbhilash “Abhi” Kantamneni| Michigan Technological University

Houghton Winters

Source: Mining Journal

Source: Mining Gazette

Source: Michigan Tech Alumni

Source: Mining Journal

Source: boniashburn.com

OCREA

UPPCO

WEPCO

DTE ELECTRIC

CONSUMERS

CHERRYLAND

THUMBXCEL

AEP

$0.24

$0.21$0.21

$0.16$0.16

$0.15$0.15$0.15$0.14

$0.14$0.14$0.13

$0.11$0.11$0.11

$0.10$0.10

MI Average Residential Electric Rates 2013[$/kWh]

MI Average: $0.14/kWhSource: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013

Average Residential Electricity Retail Rates

by State (2013)State Average Price

[$/kWh]Hawaii $0.37

Houghton $0.21-$0.24New York $0.19

Alaska $0.19Connecticut $0.18

Vermont $0.18New Hampshire $0.17

California $0.16New England $0.16

Middle Atlantic $0.16Massachusetts $0.16

New Jersey $0.16Michigan $0.15

Source: www.eia.gov

Michigan Tech KRC Photovoltaic Research Center

Location: Tree Cover and Solar Window

Image Source: www.solarfeeds.com

Best Summer Angle: 30*

Best Winter Angle: 60*

Best Average Angle: 47*

Advantages of High Module Tilt: Albedo

Source: nsidc.org

1 16 31 46 61 76 91 1061211361511661811962112262412562712863013163313463610

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Solar Irradiation and Albedo

S_Horizontal (W/m^2) Albedo (W/m^2)

Day of the Year

W/m

^2

Source: MTU KRC

Advantages of High Module Tilt: Snow Shedding

4 188 372 556 740 924 11081292147616601844202822122396258027642948313233163500368438680

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

PV System Output Under Snowy Conditions

45* 30* 15*

Hours since 12:00 Am Nov 1 2013

Ener

gy P

rodu

ced

(Wh)

Shedding from 45*

Source: MTU KRC

Source: MTU KRC Data

Houghton Average = 3.8 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*3.8h = 3.8kWh

Source: pveducation.org

*Source: MTU KRC Data

Source: pveducation.org

California Average = 6 Peak Sun Hours/Day*Energy = 1kW*6h = 6kWh

Source: MTU KRC Data

Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total

Source: Michigan Public Service Commission

Excess Generation

Excess Consumption

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Source: www.nrel.gov

Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton

•6000 [kWh] (source)Annual Consumption :

•6000/365 = ~ 16.4 [kWh]Daily Consumption:

•3.8 [h]Average Daily Sun Hours

Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton

• Daily Consumption / (Sun Hours * Derate Factor)= 16.4/(3.8*0.8) = 5.4 [kW]System Size

• System Size*Cost Per kW = 5.4*$3,500 =$18,900System Cost

• 30% of system costs = $18,900 – 30%*18,900 = $13,448

Federal Tax Rebate

Simple ROI Calculations for Houghton

•Energy*Rates = 6000*0.21 = $1,260

Annual Savings

•System Costs / Annual Savings = 11 years

Payback Period

Utility Fuel Source SummaryFuel Source USA OCREA UPPCO Region

Coal 39.10% 63.80% 54.11% 59.43%

Nuclear 19.18% 23.10% 23.08% 25.36%

Gas 27.57% 5.50% 8.90% 9.77%

Oil 0.67% 0.10% 0.50% 0.55%

Hydroelectric 7.07% 3.40% 9.55% 0.65%

Biofuel 0.00% 0.00% 0.45% 0.49%

Biomass 0.92% 0.10% 0.41% 0.45%

Wind 4.11% 2.80% 2.50% 2.75%

Wood 0.48% 0.10% 0.44% 0.49%

Other 0.71% 1.10% 0.50% 0.44%

Solar 0.20% 0.00% 0.02% 0.02%

Source: OCREA Fuel Mix ReportSource: MPSC Regional Average Fuel Mix Disclosure

Source: EIA Total Power Industry Fuel Sources

Currently all MI utilities are on track to meet RES Compliance*

Phased integration of renewables 50% cheaper than new coal generation facilities.

*Source: MPSC Report on RES Compliance

*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source

Impact of MI PA 295

Benefits of Renewables Michigan Department of Energy, Labor & Economic Growth

Report on Green Jobs says renewable energy sector job creation = 3% of all private sector employment in state

International Energy Agency Report on Energy Security says renewable energy systems reduce supply disruptions and reliance on imported fuel.

Actual Quote: “The only green that matters, is the color of my $$$$$”

(Obviously, not a philosopher)

Simple ROI Calculation

PopulationAggregate MW Solar

People

Per Pane

lHought

on 30,000 0.003 2,500Californ

ia 38,041,430 1892.05 5Texas 26,059,203 185.47 35

Florida 19,317,568 93.91 51New

Mexico 2,085,538 151.7 3Arizona 6,553,255 775.59 2

Factors Influencing Solar Adoption Early adopters motivated by environmental factors [Falers et al]

If consumers cannot identify the relative advantage of solar power over their current sources of power, it is unlikely that adoption will follow. [Falers et al]

 Economic intentional variables, as well as variables indicating basic knowledge and actual environmental behavior in the past, are strong predictors of the probability of adoption. [Arkesteijn et al]

The installation of one additional solar photovoltaic rooftop project within the past six months in a given area increased the average number of installations within a half mile radius by 44% [Graziano et al.]

Steps to Solar How much am I consuming?

Reading your electricity bill

Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my location?

How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments?

How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates increase?

Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over time?

Environmental Impact?

Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?

Steps to Solar How much am I consuming?

Reading your electricity bill

Can I install? Energy Policy? How much sun at my

location?

How much does it cost? System size? Loan payments?

How much will I save? Energy Rates? How much will rates

increase?

Performance? Effects of snow? System degradation over

time?

Environmental Impact?

Alternatives? Energy Efficiency savings?

http://solarizehoughton.org/resources/

2013

2014

2015

Solar Market Penetration in Houghton

2013:- ~30kW

Summer 2014: 60kW added

Fall 2015: +200kW expected.

Large majority of installed net metered customer generation is Solar. Source: MPSC Annual Net Metering Report 2014

Figure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installed CapacityFigure: MPSC 2013 Net Metering Program - Installations

Growth of Solar in Michigan

Source: National Renewable Energy Labs

*Figure: MIRECS 2009-2013 Credits by Energy Source

OCREA

UPPCO

WEPCO

DTE ELECTRIC

CONSUMERS

CHERRYLAND

THUMBXCEL

AEP

$0.24

$0.21$0.21

$0.16$0.16

$0.15$0.15$0.15$0.14

$0.14$0.14$0.13

$0.11$0.11$0.11

$0.10$0.10

MI Average Residential Electric Rates 2013[$/kWh]

MI Average: $0.14/kWhSource: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013

PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rates

PV Market Opportunity by Utility Electric Rate Increases

OCREA

UPPCO

WEPCO

DTE ELECTRIC

CONSUMERS

CHERRYLAND

THUMBXCEL

AEP

116%

94%107%

48%

86%

49%73%72%79%

40%42%

76%

29%39%43%61%73%

MI Average Residential Electric Rate Increase 2001-2013

MI Average: 74%

Source: MPSC Utility Rates Summary

PV Market Opportunity by Average Annual Consumption

MI Average: 8MWh/Year

OCREA

UPPCO

WEPCO

DTE ELECTRIC

CONSUMERS

CHERRYLAND

THUMBXCEL

AEP

4.5 5.1 5.85.46.8 7

.2 7.9

6.48.110.0

8.4

11.611.8

8.0 7.38.3

11.1

MI Average Residential Electric Consumption 2013 [MWH/year]

Source: MPSC Utility Company Annual Reports 2013

Utility Rank by rates Rank by rate Increase

Rank by Consumption Aggregate Rank

OCREA 1 1 1 1ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2

UPPCO 3 2 4 3WEPCO 5 4 6 4

PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9

MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10XCEL 15 13 8 11

CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12WPS 16 10 12 12AEP 17 7 15 14

TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14CLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16

THUMB 13 17 17 17

PV Residential Solar Market Potential

Utility Rank by rates

Rank by rate Increase

Rank by Consumption

Aggregate Rank

Rank by % Net-Generation

OCREA 1 1 1 1 1ALGER DELTA 2 3 2 2 2

UPPCO 3 2 4 3 4WEPCO 5 4 6 4 11

PRESQUE ISLE 4 12 3 5 5ALPENA POWER 8 9 5 6 6DTE ELECTRIC 7 8 9 7 7GREAT LAKES 6 11 7 8 8CONSUMERS 9 5 11 9 12

MIDWEST ENERGY 12 6 16 10 9XCEL 15 13 8 11 14

CHERRYLAND 11 14 13 12 N/AWPS 16 10 12 12 12AEP 17 7 15 14 13

TRI-COUNTY 10 15 14 14 N/ACLOVERLAND 14 16 10 16 10

THUMB 13 17 17 17 3

PV Residential Solar Market Potential

http://solar.maps.umn.edu/app/

LIDAR Mapping of Solar Potential for the entire state of MN

Source: NREL StudyOn solar soft costs

What happens when net-metering programs end?

MPSC Solar Working Group: Value Of Solar? (VOS)

1. Expand current program till 50MW aggregate2. Buy all, credit all3. Buy net, credit net

Source: MPSC Solar Working Group Report, June 2014

Source: CAISO

Source: EIA

(VOS): Value of Solar

VOS proposed by Michigan Utility DTE

(VOS): Value of Solar

VOS used in Minnesota

(VOS): Value of Solar

VOS used in Austin, Texas

Summary Michigan Net-Metering program largely untapped (only 94% un-

utilized)

High electric rates offer good value proposition for solar

DIY packages/software tools to reduce soft costs

Michigan solar manufacturers and distributors to reduce hardware costs

VOS methodology aims to find ‘fair’ costs of adding solar.

Champion solar through passive data-driven community networking (free calculator)

Consider promoting efficiency as an accessible alternative to solar.

Abhi is awesome

Contact Information

Abhilash Kantamneni

221 Rekhi HallMichigan Tech1400 Townsend DriveHoughton MI

akantamn@mtu.edu@akantamnwww.Abhilash.mewww.SolarizeHoughton.org

Bonus Slides!

Cabbages and Solar?

Cabbages and Solar?

Sell Price: $0.21 each

Buying Price: $0.03 each

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Electric Utility Markets are a “Zero-Sum Game”

Rates = $$Generation + $$Transmission + $$Distribution + $$Administration + $$Return on Equity

Working Group Recommendati

ons

Expand Net Metering to state wide

50MW

Credit on net generation

Credit on generation

Source: MPSC Solar Working Group Report, June 2014

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Organic cabbages?

HealthierLocally grownNo new roadsNo large farms

Storage: Generation Shifting

Credit: climatetechwiki.org

Storage: Load Shifting

Credit: Scientific American

Reliable, affordable and sustainable energy for all

Goals:

Source: Solar Energy Industry Forecast: U.S. DOE

Public Awareness

Technological Maturity

Regulatory Action

Legislative Support

Market Drivers

How to Bring Change: Homeboy Solar Industries• Increases

Sustainability• Reduced Prison

Recidivism• Saves taxpayer

money

Husky Pride! Solarize Houghton

Solar Market Penetration in Houghton

2013:- ~30kW

Summer 2014: 60kW added

Fall 2015: +200kW expected.

Solarizing Houghton (Summer 2015)

Buying Club

Workshop

Public Seminar

s

DIY Kits

Source: MTU KRC Data

Nov-Feb total irradiance = only 8% year total

Summer Production: 77 Sq. miles

Winter Production: 1,732 Sq. miles