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General Meeting 6
October 16, 2012
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Meeting Agenda
Market Update
Portfolio EvaluationStock PitchBreakout SessionAnnouncements
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S&P Since 10/08/2012
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S&P Since July
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Major Events Alcoa starts off earnings
season beats earningsbut tumbles Lower aluminum demand
for 2012 JPM and Wells Fargo
report earnings State of housing market Effect of QE on banks?
Bernanke Defends QE3 Money outflows to other
nations Currency war inflationary
pressure? Softbank acquisition of
Sprint for $20.1Bn Entry into US market Possibility of over-
leverage?
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Economic News/Next Week Unemployment down
7.8% Jack Welch Its a trap!
September retail sales up+1.1% (beating 0.7%)
Recovery? Michigan ConsumerSentiment Index 5-yearhigh!
Spain hasnt asked forbailoutyet Talks point to November
and larger bailout package Posturing vs Germany
Earnings reports thisweek: GS/MS/BAC GOOG/MSFT/VZ GE/MCD
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Kohls
2.7% decline in September same-storesales.
52,000 seasonal employees for theholiday shopping season.
Opening new stores and renovating oldones in expectance of a busy holiday
shopping season. Hold until after the holiday season and
then reevaluate.
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Apache
Not been doing so well, continuous downwardtrends
Hurricane Isaac stopped production for 6 weeks,but the COO released a statement saying thatproduction is now at an all-time high. So, thefourth quarter should be better than their third.
Hold until after the election due to instability inthe environment causing oil price fluctuationsand then sell if theres no improvement
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Decision:
SELL Risks outweigh the potential upside; Beta of 2.32
too much volatility for USIT portfolio
Entry Point: $12.27Current Price: $9.44
Loss: 23%
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Rio Tinto Ltd.
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Risks
Strongly impacted by U.S. recovery, Eurozonecrisis and ability for China to stimulate moregrowth
Plans to expand iron ore production Labor dispute caused aluminum production to be
down 12% from last quarter Copper and bauxite up 5% and 8% respectively Affected by natural disasters (Japan earthquake,
etc.)
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Key Advantages
All parts of Steel value chain Vertical Integration
Internal Distribution system Commissions down, margins up
Exposure to foreign markets Brazil, China etc.
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Industry Indicators
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Exit Point
Key Takeaways
-High Risk-Low/No Growth
Recommendation: Sell
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IBM
Hold Hardware segment on a slight decline Software and Service segment new focus for IBM
Total Solution are higher margin services and can be veryprofitable
Risk General information Technology spending decrease Increase competition Risk with integrating newly acquired companies
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Financial Metrics
52-Wk High 211.79 P/E Ratio- 15.19x
Market Cap- 240.2B Beta- .7 Dividend Yield- 1.63%
Expected YoY Revenue Growth- (1.38%) Expected Diluted EPS- 15.15
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LINC
Hold Until 11/5 (reevaluate immediately) Announced earnings call MD&A
claim to have effectively restructured after selling off sevencampuses
Risk New regulation of for-profit education
Repubs take Senate, fewer student loans, lowerstudent demand Just Settled two class action lawsuit; likely face more
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Financial Metrics
Current P/E: 47.3 EPS TTM: 0.09
Market Cap: 97.08M Dividend Yield: 6.58%
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Andrew Smith
Arun Gopalakrishnan
James Jittiwan
Ryan Lemen
Analysts:
USIT Stock Pitch
10/16/2012
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Portfolio Compatibility
Only one other company in sinful industry(BUD)Value stocks not growing USIT portfolioRisk tolerance needs to increase
Need for growth
Buy at Current Price: $113.94 6 month time frame
Exit Strategy: Sell half after 15% increase and ride growthSell half after 10% decline and reevaluate
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Diageo Overview
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Company Overview
Price: $113.94P/E: 22.2752 Week: 72.39 116.96Mkt Cap: 71.46BDividend Yield: 2.42%Beta: 0.79EPS: 5.00
Key Trading Statistics
2008
acquired RosenblumCellars2009 opened malt distillery inScotland2011 acquires Mey Icki inTurkey
2011 acquires Ypica in Brazil
Key Developments
CEO: Paul Walsh in brewerybusiness for 30 years (GrandMet Guinness Diageo)
CFO: Dierdre Mahlan in
alcoholic beverages for 20 years(Seagram Diageo)
Management
30,000 suppliers
180 countries
58 brands of alcohol
Focused marketing strategy
Key Facts
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Competitor Analysis
Diageo30%
Pernod Ricard23%Brown Forman
7%
Other40%
Intl. Spirits Market Share
Diageo, 23.46Pernod Ricard,13.18
Beam Inc, 2.3
BrownForman, 3.6
2011 Sales (in billions $)
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Investment Merits
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First-Class Brand Strength
Global Rank
Organic Sales Growth (YoY)
Key Markets
#1
Ultra Premium Vodka
#1Premium Vodka
#1Stout in the world
#2 Latin Am,Whiskey
#1
Scotch Whiskey
Unranked
Irish Whiskey
62% 6% 4% 24% 20% 15%
U.S.,
Brazil
U.S., Middle East, China,Mexico
U.S., Mexico,Brazil,Colombia
U.S., Ireland,Russia, G.B.,France
U.S., France,
South Am.,Brazil
U.S., G.B,Indonesia,Nigeria
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Risks and Mitigations
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Risks and Mitigations
Eurozone debtcrisis worsens Suppliers hikeprices Regulation inforeign countries
Likelihood: 3/10Magnitude: 4/10Mitigation: Alcoholconsumption hassteadily increased;grow sales inemerging markets
Likelihood: 6/10Magnitude: 2/10Mitigation: Diageois in so manymarkets thatregulation in a fewwont affect the
company too much
Likelihood: 3/10Magnitude: 5/10Mitigation: Diageocan leverage thevolume that theypurchase in to getfavorable terms
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Financials
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Supplemental Slides
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Tarun Kanthety
Manideep Ravi
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Royalty revenue from handset makers use of CDMA basednetworks (30% of revenue)
Early adoption of 4G patent technologies from many mobilemanufacturers
Hardware present in all 3 of the largest phone manufacturers(Apple, Samsung, Nokia)
Snapdragon S4 chips are present in most tablets/smartphones Developing pipeline of new technologies
Machine to machine communications
Halo wireless charging system (electric cars) Strong acquisition presence (4 in the last 2 years)
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Very solid and strong balance sheet
Debt/Equity Ratio of 0.03
Held 48% market share in smartphone chips
Operating margins are north of 30%
Growing dividend (1.7%)
Strong Cash Flow: $4.29 B ($2.52/share)
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Shortage of new 28 nanometer chips mobile chips Demand far outpaced the supply for these Snapdragon S4 chips Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing shortages expected to last
till December
New entrants into the 3G/4G LTE baseband processors-(only onecurrently producing)
Intel
NVIDIA Correlation with AAPL has caused stock price to fluctuate (minor risk)
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Based on the strong fundamental performance and market positioning: We recommend holding Qualcomm (QCOM) for another 1 year
Entry Point = $54.06Current Price = $59.28Gain = 9.78%
Current Holding Period = 1.5 years
Fair Value Consensus Estimate = $70.55
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Strong growth over the past 3 years
Humira Expected to be the best selling drug in the nation
(Reuters)
Patent expires Dec. 31, 2016
Consistent growth
Successful acquisitions
Strong patent outlookCompany is splitting into two -> Better valuation
AbbVie is a promising split
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Potential competition with HumiraHeavily dependent: 21% of sales
Affordable Care Act Cost $85 billion over 10years for the industryQualifications of new CEO: Richard Gonzalez
Accidentally misstated, but still cause to worryfor investors - minor
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Entry Point: 53.05 Spring of 2011Current Price: 72.05 as of yesterdayGain: +35.81%Current Holding period:
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EXXON
MOBILT I C K E R : X O M
L A S T P R I C E : 9 1 . 5 1
P U R C H A S E P R I C E : $ 7 9 . 9 4
S H A R E S : 5
R E T U R N : 1 4 . 5 7 %
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Kinder Morgan (KMP)
Strong Dividend(MLP)
Not highly
leveraged towardsprice of oil Strong growth
prospects movingforward
Recommendation:HOLD
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Pitch Schedule
Date Name
11-Sep SCG Directors18-Sep John C25-Sep Olympics2-Oct John T
9-Oct John C16-Oct Billy23-Oct Stephen30-Oct Ryan6-Nov Angela
13-Nov Finance Panel
20-Nov Thanksgiving27-Nov Ali4-Dec John T
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Clip of the week
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xit7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final
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