+ All Categories
Home > Documents > GM6-10.16.2012 Final

GM6-10.16.2012 Final

Date post: 04-Apr-2018
Category:
Upload: university-securities-investment-team
View: 217 times
Download: 0 times
Share this document with a friend

of 69

Transcript
  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    1/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    2/69

    General Meeting 6

    October 16, 2012

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    3/69

    Meeting Agenda

    Market Update

    Portfolio EvaluationStock PitchBreakout SessionAnnouncements

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    4/69

    S&P Since 10/08/2012

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    5/69

    S&P Since July

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    6/69

    Major Events Alcoa starts off earnings

    season beats earningsbut tumbles Lower aluminum demand

    for 2012 JPM and Wells Fargo

    report earnings State of housing market Effect of QE on banks?

    Bernanke Defends QE3 Money outflows to other

    nations Currency war inflationary

    pressure? Softbank acquisition of

    Sprint for $20.1Bn Entry into US market Possibility of over-

    leverage?

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    7/69

    Economic News/Next Week Unemployment down

    7.8% Jack Welch Its a trap!

    September retail sales up+1.1% (beating 0.7%)

    Recovery? Michigan ConsumerSentiment Index 5-yearhigh!

    Spain hasnt asked forbailoutyet Talks point to November

    and larger bailout package Posturing vs Germany

    Earnings reports thisweek: GS/MS/BAC GOOG/MSFT/VZ GE/MCD

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    8/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    9/69

    Kohls

    2.7% decline in September same-storesales.

    52,000 seasonal employees for theholiday shopping season.

    Opening new stores and renovating oldones in expectance of a busy holiday

    shopping season. Hold until after the holiday season and

    then reevaluate.

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    10/69

    Apache

    Not been doing so well, continuous downwardtrends

    Hurricane Isaac stopped production for 6 weeks,but the COO released a statement saying thatproduction is now at an all-time high. So, thefourth quarter should be better than their third.

    Hold until after the election due to instability inthe environment causing oil price fluctuationsand then sell if theres no improvement

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    11/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    12/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    13/69

    Decision:

    SELL Risks outweigh the potential upside; Beta of 2.32

    too much volatility for USIT portfolio

    Entry Point: $12.27Current Price: $9.44

    Loss: 23%

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    14/69

    Rio Tinto Ltd.

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    15/69

    Risks

    Strongly impacted by U.S. recovery, Eurozonecrisis and ability for China to stimulate moregrowth

    Plans to expand iron ore production Labor dispute caused aluminum production to be

    down 12% from last quarter Copper and bauxite up 5% and 8% respectively Affected by natural disasters (Japan earthquake,

    etc.)

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    16/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    17/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    18/69

    Key Advantages

    All parts of Steel value chain Vertical Integration

    Internal Distribution system Commissions down, margins up

    Exposure to foreign markets Brazil, China etc.

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    19/69

    Industry Indicators

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    20/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    21/69

    Exit Point

    Key Takeaways

    -High Risk-Low/No Growth

    Recommendation: Sell

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    22/69

    IBM

    Hold Hardware segment on a slight decline Software and Service segment new focus for IBM

    Total Solution are higher margin services and can be veryprofitable

    Risk General information Technology spending decrease Increase competition Risk with integrating newly acquired companies

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    23/69

    Financial Metrics

    52-Wk High 211.79 P/E Ratio- 15.19x

    Market Cap- 240.2B Beta- .7 Dividend Yield- 1.63%

    Expected YoY Revenue Growth- (1.38%) Expected Diluted EPS- 15.15

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    24/69

    LINC

    Hold Until 11/5 (reevaluate immediately) Announced earnings call MD&A

    claim to have effectively restructured after selling off sevencampuses

    Risk New regulation of for-profit education

    Repubs take Senate, fewer student loans, lowerstudent demand Just Settled two class action lawsuit; likely face more

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    25/69

    Financial Metrics

    Current P/E: 47.3 EPS TTM: 0.09

    Market Cap: 97.08M Dividend Yield: 6.58%

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    26/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    27/69

    Andrew Smith

    Arun Gopalakrishnan

    James Jittiwan

    Ryan Lemen

    Analysts:

    USIT Stock Pitch

    10/16/2012

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    28/69

    Portfolio Compatibility

    Only one other company in sinful industry(BUD)Value stocks not growing USIT portfolioRisk tolerance needs to increase

    Need for growth

    Buy at Current Price: $113.94 6 month time frame

    Exit Strategy: Sell half after 15% increase and ride growthSell half after 10% decline and reevaluate

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    29/69

    Diageo Overview

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    30/69

    Company Overview

    Price: $113.94P/E: 22.2752 Week: 72.39 116.96Mkt Cap: 71.46BDividend Yield: 2.42%Beta: 0.79EPS: 5.00

    Key Trading Statistics

    2008

    acquired RosenblumCellars2009 opened malt distillery inScotland2011 acquires Mey Icki inTurkey

    2011 acquires Ypica in Brazil

    Key Developments

    CEO: Paul Walsh in brewerybusiness for 30 years (GrandMet Guinness Diageo)

    CFO: Dierdre Mahlan in

    alcoholic beverages for 20 years(Seagram Diageo)

    Management

    30,000 suppliers

    180 countries

    58 brands of alcohol

    Focused marketing strategy

    Key Facts

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    31/69

    Competitor Analysis

    Diageo30%

    Pernod Ricard23%Brown Forman

    7%

    Other40%

    Intl. Spirits Market Share

    Diageo, 23.46Pernod Ricard,13.18

    Beam Inc, 2.3

    BrownForman, 3.6

    2011 Sales (in billions $)

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    32/69

    Investment Merits

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    33/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    34/69

    First-Class Brand Strength

    Global Rank

    Organic Sales Growth (YoY)

    Key Markets

    #1

    Ultra Premium Vodka

    #1Premium Vodka

    #1Stout in the world

    #2 Latin Am,Whiskey

    #1

    Scotch Whiskey

    Unranked

    Irish Whiskey

    62% 6% 4% 24% 20% 15%

    U.S.,

    Brazil

    U.S., Middle East, China,Mexico

    U.S., Mexico,Brazil,Colombia

    U.S., Ireland,Russia, G.B.,France

    U.S., France,

    South Am.,Brazil

    U.S., G.B,Indonesia,Nigeria

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    35/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    36/69

    Risks and Mitigations

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    37/69

    Risks and Mitigations

    Eurozone debtcrisis worsens Suppliers hikeprices Regulation inforeign countries

    Likelihood: 3/10Magnitude: 4/10Mitigation: Alcoholconsumption hassteadily increased;grow sales inemerging markets

    Likelihood: 6/10Magnitude: 2/10Mitigation: Diageois in so manymarkets thatregulation in a fewwont affect the

    company too much

    Likelihood: 3/10Magnitude: 5/10Mitigation: Diageocan leverage thevolume that theypurchase in to getfavorable terms

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    38/69

    Financials

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    39/69

    Supplemental Slides

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    40/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    41/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    42/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    43/69

    Tarun Kanthety

    Manideep Ravi

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    44/69

    Royalty revenue from handset makers use of CDMA basednetworks (30% of revenue)

    Early adoption of 4G patent technologies from many mobilemanufacturers

    Hardware present in all 3 of the largest phone manufacturers(Apple, Samsung, Nokia)

    Snapdragon S4 chips are present in most tablets/smartphones Developing pipeline of new technologies

    Machine to machine communications

    Halo wireless charging system (electric cars) Strong acquisition presence (4 in the last 2 years)

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    45/69

    Very solid and strong balance sheet

    Debt/Equity Ratio of 0.03

    Held 48% market share in smartphone chips

    Operating margins are north of 30%

    Growing dividend (1.7%)

    Strong Cash Flow: $4.29 B ($2.52/share)

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    46/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    47/69

    Shortage of new 28 nanometer chips mobile chips Demand far outpaced the supply for these Snapdragon S4 chips Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing shortages expected to last

    till December

    New entrants into the 3G/4G LTE baseband processors-(only onecurrently producing)

    Intel

    NVIDIA Correlation with AAPL has caused stock price to fluctuate (minor risk)

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    48/69

    Based on the strong fundamental performance and market positioning: We recommend holding Qualcomm (QCOM) for another 1 year

    Entry Point = $54.06Current Price = $59.28Gain = 9.78%

    Current Holding Period = 1.5 years

    Fair Value Consensus Estimate = $70.55

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    49/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    50/69

    Strong growth over the past 3 years

    Humira Expected to be the best selling drug in the nation

    (Reuters)

    Patent expires Dec. 31, 2016

    Consistent growth

    Successful acquisitions

    Strong patent outlookCompany is splitting into two -> Better valuation

    AbbVie is a promising split

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    51/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    52/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    53/69

    Potential competition with HumiraHeavily dependent: 21% of sales

    Affordable Care Act Cost $85 billion over 10years for the industryQualifications of new CEO: Richard Gonzalez

    Accidentally misstated, but still cause to worryfor investors - minor

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    54/69

    Entry Point: 53.05 Spring of 2011Current Price: 72.05 as of yesterdayGain: +35.81%Current Holding period:

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    55/69

    EXXON

    MOBILT I C K E R : X O M

    L A S T P R I C E : 9 1 . 5 1

    P U R C H A S E P R I C E : $ 7 9 . 9 4

    S H A R E S : 5

    R E T U R N : 1 4 . 5 7 %

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    56/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    57/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    58/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    59/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    60/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    61/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    62/69

    Kinder Morgan (KMP)

    Strong Dividend(MLP)

    Not highly

    leveraged towardsprice of oil Strong growth

    prospects movingforward

    Recommendation:HOLD

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    63/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    64/69

    Pitch Schedule

    Date Name

    11-Sep SCG Directors18-Sep John C25-Sep Olympics2-Oct John T

    9-Oct John C16-Oct Billy23-Oct Stephen30-Oct Ryan6-Nov Angela

    13-Nov Finance Panel

    20-Nov Thanksgiving27-Nov Ali4-Dec John T

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    65/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    66/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    67/69

  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    68/69

    Clip of the week

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xit

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xithttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yFU774q6eVM&feature=g-logo-xit
  • 7/31/2019 GM6-10.16.2012 Final

    69/69


Recommended