Prepared by GMP Securities Australia Pty Limited See important disclosures on the last two pages of this report
Equity Research
Metals X7 BUY
MLX-ASX
Last:
A$1.33
July 15, 2015 Target: A$1.82
Rating BUY
Target (A$) $1.82
Gold Production 2015E (koz) 146.49
Gold Production 2016E (koz) 264.51
Gold Production 2017E (koz) 401.41
Tin Production 2015E (kt) 7.10
Tin Production 2016E (kt) 6.93
Tin Production 2017E (kt) 6.93
Share Data
Share o/s (mm, basic/f.d. itm)
52-week high/low (A$)
Market cap (A$m)
EV (A$m)
Net debt (A$m)
Projected return
NAV0%/share
NAV10%/share
P/NAV0%
P/NAV10%
Financial Data
YE June 30 FY15E FY16E FY17E
Gold production (koz) 146.49 264.51 401.41
AISC(A$/oz) $1,286 $1,284 $1,270
Tin production (kt) 7.10 6.93 6.93
AISC(A$/t) $19,783 $18,946 $18,946
Capex (A$m) -$48 -$78 -$85
Free cashflow (A$m) $26.8 $22.0 $54.0
EPS $0.07 $0.11 $0.29
CFPS $0.15 $0.02 $0.18
P/E 18.2 12.2 4.6
P/CF 9.0 66.2 7.5
EV/EBITDA 6.6 4.5 2.2 Al l figures in A$ unless otherwise noted
$0.00
$1.82
0.00
0.73
37%
416.0
1.56/0.62
$553.29
$439.95
-$113.34
Initiating coverage: Strong pipeline to growth
Strong growth pipeline to >400koz pa
Metals X (MLX-ASX) has four gold projects that host gold resources that total
14.2Moz. Annual gold production is forecast in excess of 400kozpa from 2017
making MLX a significant Australian gold producer.
Profitable and diversified miner benefiting from a weak A$
MLX is profitable with a A$16m profit reported for the six months to 31
December 2014. MLX offers some commodity diversification through gold
and tin production and gold, nickel and copper development assets. But
operating four different operations provides additional operational
diversification. All operations are in Australia and benefit from a weak Aussie
as well as competitive labour costs in a low risk operating environment.
Strong technical skills to turnaround low cost acquisitions
MLX has certainly latched on to opportunities to consolidate gold projects in
Western Australia through sensible low cost acquisitions. Management has
then used strong technical know how to improve these operations and we
expect this process to continue. The Australian gold sector has seen
considerable M&A activity recently and MLX has the balance sheet and
operational experience to benefit from this.
Attractive and transparent dividend policy
MLX paid its first dividend to shareholders in December 2014 and we expect
more to come through a clear dividend policy that requires a payment of at
least 30% of NPAT.
Initiating with a BUY and price target of A$1.82/share
Our SOTP valuation based price target indicates MLX is currently a BUY. We
like the company and believe there is considerable upside potential on our
valuation. Our valuation applies DCF valuations on Higginsville, SKO, CMGP,
Renison, Wingellina and Rover; a peer aligned exploration portfolio valuation;
and assumed 30 September cash.
Duncan Hughes +61 8 6141 6322
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Equity Research
Investment case
We value Metals X on a sum of the parts basis, using a risked NAV calculated for its 100% interest
in the Higginsville, South Kal, Murchison and Wingellina projects, a 50% interest in Renison and a
75% interest in Rover. Cash and corporate valuations are assumed for 30 September 2015, as are
listed investments. Exploration upside is assumed using peer analysis on similar exploration
portfolios. A summary is shown in the following table.
Figure 1. MLX sum of the parts valuation (A$m)
Source: GMP research
Metals X is a quality, partially diversified and profitable miner. Commodity diversification through
gold and tin and across four different assets provides considerable protection against individual
asset underperformance.
MLX is profitable with a A$16m profit reported for the six months to 31 December 2014. At 31
March 2015 MLX had cash and working capital at a healthy A$123m with no debt (excluding a
A$40m gold loan).
Management has a good operational track record at Renison and has made impressive progress
lowering costs at Higginsville. The company’s assets are all benefiting from a weaker Australian
dollar, reduced labour and support costs and lower fuel costs.
MLX paid its first dividend to shareholders in December 2014 and we expect more to come
through a clear dividend policy that requires a payment of at least 30% of NPAT.
MLX has substantial carry forward tax losses that can be used to offset future tax payments.
These have substantial value in our model with no tax paid until FY17 and a reduced rate for five
years thereafter.
The company has four gold projects that host gold resources that total 14.2Moz. Annual gold
production is forecast in excess of 400kozpa from 2017 making MLX a significant Australian gold
producer. MLX has certainly latched on to the opportunities to consolidate gold projects in
Western Australia through sensible low cost acquisitions. Management has then used strong
technical know how to improve these operations and we expect this process to continue.
The recent acquisition in the Murchison looks set to be a game changer for the company. MLX is
in a very strong position to unlock the full potential of the project as it has the balance sheet,
Asset Discount rate NAV "X" Factor NAV Target (A$) Target Price (A$)
Renison (50%) 10% 1.00 X $81.8 $0.20
Murchison 8% 0.85 X $152.0 $0.37
Higginsville 8% 1.00 X $133.1 $0.32
South Kal 8% 0.90 X $70.9 $0.17
Rover 8% 0.50 X $32.2 $0.08
Wingellina 10% 0.10 X $76.8 $0.18
Exploration Upside n.a n.a $15.0 $0.04
Rentails (50%) n.a n.a $10.0 $0.02
Cash n.a n.a $114.4 $0.28
Listed investments n.a n.a $5.6 $0.01
Corporate (incl.gold loan & tax credits) 10% 1.00 X $65.3 $0.16
Total NAV $757.1 $1.82
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technical skills and (through ownership of the whole project) has the ability to operate from
several mining sources at once to diversify technical risk and achieve the desired blend for the
Bluebird Plant. This project currently achieves little market value and we expect a re-rating once
production commences and goals are achieved.
Renison is a globally significant tin producer with a long mine life and solid track record of
producing a high quality concentrate. To date the company has not suffered through not having a
long term offtake in place (it usually has 2-year contracts at spot in place), but Renison does
remain fully leveraged to both upside and downside in the tin price. Current margins are pretty
tight with MLX producing at all-in sustaining costs of ~A$19,000/t Sn (GMPe) and current tin
prices at A$19,200/t Sn. Clearly this is not sustainable long-term without a tin price rise.
Wingellina is a globally significant nickel project that could become extremely valuable should
nickel prices rise in line with most observers’ estimates. But the very high capital and challenges
developing HPAL technology make this a project that likely requires a strong strategic partner
with a large balance sheet and technical track record on HPAL.
With a capable management team, a strong balance sheet, production track record and strong
organic growth pipeline of additional development projects, we expect MLX to grow its business
through organic growth predominantly. But a strong balance sheet and extensive opportunities
also make low cost accretive M&A growth possible and management has a strong track record of
achieving this.
We feel MLX is currently undervalued based on our sum of the parts valuation. In our view, the
impressive cash flow performance, a partially diversified portfolio, a dividend stream,
management track record and excellent growth pipeline justify a premium to NAV. Consequently
we initiate with a BUY recommendation.
SWOT analysis
Strengths
Established profitable miner
Diversified commodity exposure
Strong management and balance sheet
Clear dividend policy
Australian dollar production
Cheap power in Tasmania
Globally significant Tin and Nickel Strong organic growth pipeline to >400kozpqa
Undervalued
Carry forward tax losses
Weaknesses
No reserve at SKO
Low tin price
Low nickel price
Threats
Commodity price volatility
Takeover risk
Development risk @ SKO & CMGP
No long term offtake for tin
Mine & capex sequencing at CMGP
Opportunities
Strong cash flow to support growth
Exploration upside
M&A utilising mining skills & cash
Consolidation in WA
Labour and power costs falling
Wingellina will be a significant asset in rising nickel price environment
Hedging tin, nickel or gold
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Valuation
Higginsville Gold Mine (HGO)
We have modelled the Higginsville Mine to continue production at 1.0mtpa of ore until
December 2020. This assumes that an additional 0.3moz of reserves are sourced.
Figure 2. Higginsville assumed mine production plan (100% of project)
Mine Plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Total Plant Feed (kt) 947 1000 1000 1000
Average Head Grade (g/t Au) 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.0
Metallurgical Recovery (%) 93 91.5 91.5 91.5
Gold Produced (koz) 124 119 119 119 Source: GMP research
We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with
management and a review of financial reports.
Figure 3. Higginsville modelling assumptions (100% of project)
Assumption Life of Mine
Underground Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 100.00
Surface Mining Cost (A$/t rock) 3.50
Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 23.50
G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 11.00
Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 18.0
Exploration (A$m pa) 3.75
Government Royalty (%) 2.5
Morgan Stanley Royalty (%) 1.8*
LOM Average Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225
A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 * MS royalty includes price participation at 12.5% of difference between price received and A$1340/oz
Source: GMP research
We value the Higginsville Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV8% of A$133m and MLX’s
100% ownership at A$133m.
South Kal Gold Mine (SKO)
We have modelled the South Kal Mine to continue production at 0.9mtpa of ore until December
2020. This assumes that an additional 0.5moz of mining inventory are sourced. The operation
currently has no reserves defined.
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Figure 4. SKO assumed mine production plan (100% of project)
Mine Plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Total Plant Feed (kt) 828* 750 900 900
Average Head Grade (g/t Au) 0.91* 2.81 3.22 3.22
Metallurgical Recovery (%) 84* 87 87 87
Gold Produced (koz) 6* 59 81 81 * includes processing low grade stockpiles
Source: GMP research
We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with
management and a review of financial reports.
Figure 5. SKO modelling assumptions (100% of project)
Assumption Life of Mine
Underground Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 90.00
Surface Mining Cost (A$/t rock) 3.50
Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 20.00
G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 2.50
Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 10.0
Exploration (A$m pa) 3.00
Government Royalty (%) 0.0
Vendor Royalty (%) 2.0
LOM Average Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225
A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research
SKO also toll treats in the order of 300ktpa of third party ore which we have included in our
model.
We value the SKO Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV8% of A$79m. The operation is
fully developed and financed but is still ramping up and our assumptions are built around a
resource rather than reserve. Consequently we have risked our NAV at 0.9xNAV and value MLX’s
100% ownership at A$71m.
Central Murchison Gold project (CMGP)
We have modelled the Central Murchison project to commence production in FY16 at an average
LOM rate of 1.5mtpa of ore until mid-2028. This assumes that an additional 0.5moz of mining
inventory are sourced. The operation currently has 2.05moz of reserves defined from a 8.5moz
resource.
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Figure 6. CMGP assumed mine production plan (100% of project)
Mine Plan FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19
Total Plant Feed (kt) 800 1675 2000 1955
Average Head Grade (g/t Au) 3.74 4.16 3.53 3.58
Metallurgical Recovery (%) 90 90 90 90
Gold Produced (koz) 87 201 204 202 Source: GMP research
We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with
management and a review of financial reports.
Figure 7. CMGP modelling assumptions (100% of project)
Assumption Life of Mine
LOM Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 80.00
Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 22.25
G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 8.20
Initial capex (A$m) 41.4
Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 15.6
Exploration (A$m pa) 3.75
Government Royalty (%) 2.5
Vendor Royalty (%) 1.0
LOM Average Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225
A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research
We value the CMGP Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV8% of A$179m. The operation is
still ramping up. Consequently we have risked our NAV at 0.85xNAV and value MLX’s 100%
ownership at A$152m.
Renison Tin Mine
We have modelled the Renison Mine to continue production at 0.66mtpa of ore until December
2024. This assumes that an additional 13kt Sn of reserves are sourced.
Figure 8. Renison assumed mine production plan
Mine Plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18
Total Plant Feed (kt) 661 660 660 660
Average Head Grade (% Sn) 1.54 1.5 1.5 1.5
Metallurgical Recovery (%) 70 70 70 70
Tin Produced (t Sn)* 7,102 6,930 6,930 6,930 *excludes a small amount of copper, before payabilities
Source: GMP research
We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with
management and a review of financial reports.
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Figure 9. Renison modelling assumptions
Assumption Life of Mine
Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 105.00
Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 25.00
G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 13.00
Sn Payability (%) 92
Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 18.0
Exploration (A$m pa) 2.0
Government Royalty (%) 5.0
LOM Average Tin Price (US$/t) 18,350
A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research
We value the Renison Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV10% of A$164m and MLX’s
50% share at A$82m.
Wingellina Nickel project
We have modelled the Wingellina project to commence production in FY20 and ramp up to a rate
of 4mtpa of ore for 20 years. This assumes just 46% of reserves are processed.
Figure 10. Wingellina assumed mine production plan
Mine Plan FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
Total Plant Feed (Mt) 1.6 3.0 3.5 4.0
Average Head Grade (% Ni) 1.33 1.33 1.21 1.17
Metallurgical Recovery (%) 92 92 92 92
Nickel Produced (t Ni)* 19,578 36,708 38,852 43,056 *excludes cobalt credits, before payabilities
Source: GMP research
We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations and discussions
with management.
Figure 11. Wingellina modelling assumptions
Assumption Life of Mine
Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 4.20
Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 55.00
G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 15.00
Initial Capex (A$m) 2400.0
Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 40.0
Exploration (A$m pa) 2.0
Government Royalty (%) 2.5
LOM Average Nickel Price (US$/t) 19,842
A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research
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We value the Wingellina Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV10% of A$769m. But given
the enormous capex required, current nickel price and stage of development, we discount the
valuation to 0.1xNAV to arrive at a risked NAV of A$77m for MLX’s current 100% holding.
Rover gold/copper project
We have completed an NPV valuation of the Rover project based on the scoping study completed
by West Gold. We assume only the high grade portion of the deposit is mined and determine a
risked 0.5x NAV of A$32m for MLX’s 100% share in this undeveloped project.
Exploration tenure
We have determined a fair valuation for an exploration package of the size and quality of MLX’s
portfolio at A$15m. We value MLX’s 50% share in the Rentails project at A$10m.
Cash, corporate costs and investments
We value net cash of A$114m (GMPe 30 September 2015), listed investments of A$5.6m and
corporate costs (including the cost of the gold loan and the value of A$600m carry forward tax
losses) of A$65m (NPV10).
Total valuation
Our total discounted NAV valuation for Metals X is A$757m or A$1.82/share.
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Company overview
Background
MLX commenced life on the ASX as Bluestone Tin in 2004. Bluestone owned the historic Renison
and Mt Bischoff Mines in Tasmania and the Collingwood Tin project in Queensland. Renison was
commissioned in 2004 but put on care and maintenance in 2005 due to a fall in the tin price.
Bluestone merged with Metals X and renamed in 2006.
Renison was restarted in 2008 and MLX later sold 50% of the project to Yunnan Tin for A$50m in
2010. In October 2012 MLX acquired WestGold Resources Ltd (Murchison and Rover) by scheme
of arrangement and commenced the company’s push into the gold sector. This process continued
with the acquisition of Alacer Gold’s Australian assets (HGO and SKO) in October 2013 for A$40m.
The final piece of the puzzle came with the acquisition of Reed Resources’ gold plant and assets
to secure its 100% interest in its central Murchison project for A$9.5m in June 2014.
MLX paid its inaugural dividend in December 2014. In February 2015 the company signed a
binding agreement to acquire 75% of Tanami Gold’s Central Tanami Project only to see Tanami
Gold renege on the deal and sign the assets over to Northern Star Resources. A legal process is
ongoing.
Corporate summary
The company held working capital of A$122m at 31 March with effectively no debt (A$0.1m).
MLX’s dividend policy pays out a minimum of 30% of NPAT with the inaugural dividend paid in
December 2014. MLX has 416m shares on issue, no options, but 1.6m employee performance
rights that vest on 30 June 2017 dependent on share price growth targets.
MLX has a gold pre-pay facility with Citibank. The facility is down to A$25m in cash in return for
1,500oz Au per month until September 2016.
MLX is listed on the ASX (ASX300), the Frankfurt Exchange and OTCQX International Exchange in
the USA. Major shareholders are APAC Resources (24%) and Jinchuan (11%). MLX has listed
investments in Mongolian Resources (14.75%), NeoMetals (formerly Reed Resources) and Aziana
(13.75%) where MLX has agreed to underwrite A$3.5m of a A$4m capital raise planned this
month.
MLX has substantial carry forward tax losses that can be used to offset future tax payments. The
corporate entity has circa A$120m in losses that looks set to see no tax paid until CY17.
Thereafter MLX has A$480m in carry forward tax losses that it can use to offset tax on up to
17.8% of pre-tax profit resulting in substantially reduced tax payments until 2021.
M&A
The company is well positioned as a successful semi-diversified producer with an interest in a
globally significant tin mine and four gold projects. With positive cash flow, the company is well
positioned for M&A growth opportunities. However, MLX already has a strong pipeline of
development assets so does not need to rush.
The recent bid for Tanami Gold certainly indicates a desire for M&A growth, but as discussed
above, management can take their time assessing the options available given the existing
pipeline to organic growth.
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With such a large portfolio of projects, MLX also has the opportunity to divest non-core assets
such as Rover. MLX will also need to divest a significant stake in Wingellina should it wish to fund
the project capital requirement.
Gold Division
MLX has four gold projects with one currently operating at steady state (HGO), one ramping up
production (SKO), one developing (CMGP) and one at the PFS stage (Rover). Gold resources total
14.2Moz. MLX’s CY14 production was 160koz. FY16 production is forecast at 275koz with annual
production forecast in excess of 400kozpa thereafter.
Higginsville (HGO), Western Australia (100%)
Higginsville (HGO) was acquired as part of Alacer Gold’s Australian assets in 2013.
Gold mineralisation is typical of the prolific Archaean Norseman-Wiluna Greenstone Belt. Gold is
hosted in quartz veins and shear zones and is currently being mined from open pit and
underground operations.
Resources
The project hosts a measured, indicated and inferred resource of 13.3Mt @ 2.9g/t Au for 1.2Moz.
Figure 12. Higginsville mineral resources (30 June 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold(koz)
Measured 1.44 4.41 204
Indicated 8.18 2.95 777
Inferred 3.69 2.10 250
Total 13.31 2.88 1,231
Source: MLX
Mineral reserves were calculated at an assumed A$1,400/oz gold price. These reserves represent
approximately 2 years’ mine life. 279koz @ 5.5g/t Au of reserves (52%) are sourced from the
Trident ore body.
Figure 13. Higginsville mineral reserves (30 June 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold (Moz)
Proved 0.53 5.94 102
Probable 4.01 3.36 433
Total 4.54 3.67 535
Source: MLX
Mining
The Trident underground drives the Higginsville operation. Underground mining is currently from
the high grade Artemis quartz vein (mining width 1-3m) and the Helios shear zone where gold is
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hosted as veining and disseminated gold (mine width from 5-13m). Mining is long-hole open
stoping with a paste backfill from tails.
Historically mining has delivered a 10% improvement on grades in the reserve statement. The ore
body runs at between 1,500 and 2,500 ozpvm but grades and widths vary considerably over small
areas as is common in high grade gold deposits. The mine is dry and geotechnically stable.
Mineralisation has been defined down to 1,100m below surface at Trident and MLX is mining at
about 900m. The resource remains open at depth.
Figure 14. Trident mine reserves and infrastructure
Source: MLX
Open pit mining is currently from the Lake Cowan pits and trucked 15km to the plant at Trident.
The open pit mines produce a mixture of oxide and fresh material at an average strip ratio of 9:1.
Processing
Processing is through a gravity-CIL plant with ball mill name plate capacity of 1.2mtpa. Recoveries
are in the order of 97% from Trident and 85% from the Lake Cowan pits. Average residence time
is 36 hours which is quite slow. Ore is hard, especially from Lake Cowan and it is essential that the
slightly refractory and hard ore is blended (1:4) with the Trident ore. 60% of the Trident ore is
recovered using gravity and ore requires a fairly coarse grind. Both are favourable for operating
costs.
Since acquiring the project, MLX has focussed on cutting costs through renegotiating contracts in
a competitive contractor environment, restructuring the Morgan Stanley royalty and
campaigning plant operations. The Morgan Stanley royalty was previously 4.5% NSR. MLX has
renegotiated the royalty to a 1.8% NSR and a gold sharing agreement whereby Morgan Stanley
receive ~12% of the gold if sold above a floor price of A$1340/oz. We estimate this renegotiated
royalty equates to a saving of A$100/oz for MLX at current prices. The plant currently batch
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processes ore on a 9-day campaign every fortnight. Diesel prices have also fallen and result in
power costs of 22c kwh, substantially lower than during Alacer’s tenure.
Exploration upside
The Trident underground remains open down plunge. A parallel trend to Trident has been
hypothesised for the Two Boys trend. The company is drill testing this target in the footwall to
the Trident underground currently. Open pit ore is currently expected to last until 2019.
The recent discovery by Sirius Resources at the Baloo prospect is just a short distance from the
Higginsville plant. In our view, it is possible that ore from this discovery would be treated by MLX
and some sort of arrangement with Sirius seems likely.
Figure 15. Line of lode potential at Higginsville
Source: MLX
South Kal (SKO), Western Australia (100%)
The operation is located only a short distance south of the gold mining centre of Kalgoorlie
Boulder. The operation includes the historic Celebration Mine and the substantial Hampton-
Boulder-Jubilee (HBJ) mine. The company is in the process of redeveloping the HBJ underground
and we expect first production this quarter. The operation is situated on freehold ground and
state royalties do not apply. SKO is connected to grid power, so power costs are substantially
reduced.
Geology
Mineralisation is hosted within the prolific Boulder-Lefroy shear zone. Mineralisation is localized
where a porphyry body intrudes the shear zone creating a structural jog and rheological trap.
Mineralisation is associated with an alteration assemblage of potassium-feldspar, biotite,
chlorite, carbonate, silica, pyrite and veins of quartz, carbonate and pyrite.
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Resources
The project hosts a substantial measured, indicated and inferred resource of 3.2Moz Au.
Figure 16. SKO mineral resources (30 June 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold(Koz)
Measured 2.4 1.75 132
Indicated 31.5 1.97 1,989
Inferred 16.6 2.05 1,093
Total 50.4 1.98 3,214
Source: MLX
The resource was reported at a 0.7g/t Au lower cut. A significant portion of this resource is likely
to be mined from underground and management guides a 4.5g/t Au head grade for this. We have
assumed just 9% of this resource is mined from the HBJ underground at 4.5g/t Au.
Mineral reserves are yet to be calculated. We expect a reserve statement next quarter to give
greater confidence at SKO.
Mining
There has been limited mining this financial year at SKO as processing has been focussed on pre-
existing stockpiles and toll treating ores. Mining from the HBJ underground has commenced this
quarter. Mining has required a new portal and decline into the existing underground operation
with historic underground infrastructure refurbished to ore. Mining will utilize long-hole open
stoping.
Historically mining has been focussed on the southern (SOZ), central (COZ) and northern (NOZ)
ore zones. Mining has recommenced on the SOZ which historically mined 580kt @ 8.0g/t Au.
Alacer had planned a bulk tonnage “super-pit” at HBJ but gold prices made the large amount of
capital required hard to justify. MLX plan a smaller underground and satellite open pit operation
on the 3moz resource base that will require significantly lower capital expenditure.
Figure 17. HBJ mine and drilling on long section
Source: MLX
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Historically the HBJ mine was separated by a tenement boundary and mined by two separate
miners. MLX now has the opportunity to mine the operation as one.
Mining from surface will be sourced from a number of open pit mines that include the Trojan pit,
Location 59 pits and Penfolds pits. These pits average 2.0g/t Au and high strip ratios of 11:1.
However, low power costs and low state royalties make them economic and a sensible blend with
the higher grade HBJ ore.
Processing
Last quarter SKO processed ore from the HGO Lake Cowan pits as well as toll treating third party
ore. This quarter we expect higher grade ore from the HBJ underground.
Processing is through a CIL plant with ball mill name plate capacity of 1.2mtpa. Recoveries are
expected to be in the order of 90%.
Cheaper grid power and no state royalty as well as the proximity to Kalgoorlie infrastructure and
accommodation greatly assist margins at SKO.
Toll treating
MLX is currently treating circa 300,00tpa of third party ore through the SKO plant. We estimate
that the company makes A$1.5mpa from this toll treating arrangement.
Cannon Mine Development with Southern Gold
Metals X is currently co-developing the Cannon Mine with Southern Gold (SAU:ASX). The stage 1
open pit is designed to mine 152kt of ore at a fully diluted run of mine grade of 3.1g/t Au
containing 15koz of gold, with 13.5koz gold recovered with a C1 operating cost of A$1053/Oz Au.
Mining will commence once the final access agreement with the pastoral leaseholder is executed
and the mine contractor has been mobilised to site. First gold pour is expected in December
2015.
All capital, mining, haulage and processing costs will be funded by Metals X and recovered
through project operating cash flow with net profit distributed 50/50 to each party in the second
quarter CY2016. A A$0.5m loan from Metals X to SAU will also be repaid in full at this time.
Exploration upside
There is considerable potential to extend the resource down dip of the currently defined HBJ
resource.
The SKO tenement is large and covers 2,000km2 of the prospective Boulder-Lefroy and Zuleika
shear zones. MLX reports 280 exploration targets at the project.
Central Murchison, Western Australia (100%)
MLX has a large tenement holding in the Murchison of Western Australia. The project hosts a
number of significant mines including Big Bell, Great Fingall and Paddys Flats. The project has
produced over 10moz of gold, hosts 8.5moz in resources and is expected to produce 200kozpa.
The project was acquired for circa A$40m from WestGold Resources and Reed Resources’
administrators and hosts the Bluebird processing plant and infrastructure.
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Figure 18. CMGP tenement holding
Source: MLX
The Meekatharra tenements have a recent history of failure. Previous owner Reed Resources was
forced into administration when a large cutback on the Bluebird Pit failed to hit ore where
expected. Mercator Mining also failed at the project as slumping in the Surprise Pit caused the
company to terminate operations. Both companies had small balance sheets and were focussed
on just one operation.
We believe MLX will succeed where others have failed because it has the balance sheet, technical
skills and (through ownership of the whole project) has the ability to operate from several mining
sources at once to diversify technical risk and achieve the desired blend for the Bluebird plant.
Resources
The project hosts a substantial measured, indicated and inferred resource of 8.5Moz.
Figure 19. CMGP mineral resources (31 December 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold(Koz)
Measured 0.1 1.4 5
Indicated 78.5 2.1 5,350
Inferred 49.6 2.0 3,140
Total 128.0 2.1 8,495
Source: MLX
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Mineral reserves were calculated at an assumed A$1,500/oz gold price.
Figure 20. CMGP mineral reserves (31 December 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold (Moz)
Proved - - -
Probable 21.3 3.0 2,046
Total 21.3 3.0 2,046
Source: MLX
Mining
Mine scheduling will be the main challenge and advantage at CMGP. The company has 72
separate ore sources to choose from which provides significant flexibility over the 13-year mine
life. However, timing of these operations and associated capital spend will be a challenge to
maintain a consistent blend and output through the Bluebird Processing plant whilst ensuring
minimal pressure on the company balance sheet.
At the time of our site visit, the company was dewatering the Paddys Flats open pits in
preparation for underground mining and pre-stripping the Whangamata and Batavia open pits.
The company expects to award an underground mining contract imminently but plans to owner
operate open cut mining. All significant ore sources are on mining licences with no impediments
to mining foreseen.
The Paddys Flats operation is designed as an underground mine beneath a sequence of
previously mined open pits. The operation will mine mineralisation along a shear zone where
mining widths support long-hole open stoping. The underground mine will also access the
Prohibition BIF where grades and widths support large open stopes. Ground conditions are
expected to be good despite the presence of ultramafic schist in the hanging wall to the mine.
At the same time the company intends to develop an open pit mine and future underground
operation at the historic Great Fingalls and Golden Crown Mines near Cue. This operation will
truck ore 100km to the Bluebird plant along the Great Northern Highway. The grade at the
operations is expected to support this haulage (assuming 10c/tkm); although we see some risk to
grade initially as the company mines through an area previously mined as narrow high grade adits
in the early 1900s.
Mineralisation at Great Fingalls is hosted within a competent dolerite unit similar to that hosting
the prolific Golden Mile mineralisation at Kalgoorlie. Better gold mineralisation is located where
the dolerite is intersected by cross cutting shears.
The company also plans to re-open the large Big Bell operation to the west of Cue. This mine has
a history of seismic challenges on the large bulk tonnage caving operation. However, MLX intends
a lower tonnage operation using modern technology and retreat mining that it is confident will
enable a steady 800ktpa of ore from Big Bell.
At Reedys a number of open pit cutbacks and underground operations are planned along the
Reedy Shear zone. These operations are located some 60km from the plant.
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Figure 21. Great Fingalls Mine with Golden Crown shaft in the background
Source: GMP research
Processing
The Bluebird plant has the capacity to operate at 3mtpa and consists of a large CIL circuit and a
small gravity circuit and all necessary infrastructure. MLX is in the process of refurbishing this
plant. The plant will require a blend of oxide and fresh material and processing will be dependent
on the blend of grades and expected recoveries from various ore sources from open cut and
underground. Feeding this large plant will be the key challenge for MLX but with 72 ore sources,
this looks achievable. MLX intend to operate the plant on a campaign basis.
We anticipate 1.5-2.0mtpa feeding the plant with recoveries in the region of 90% sourced from a
blend of underground and open-cut ore sources as follows:
Big Bell ~800ktpa
Great Fingalls/Golden Crown ~300ktpa
Paddys Flat underground ~400ktpa
Satellite pits and Reedys/Nannine – 200-300ktpa
Exploration upside
Exploration is currently focussed on converting the 8.5moz resource to reserves.
Renison Tin mine, Tasmania (50%)
The Renison Bell Tin Mine is the original asset owned by Bluestone Tin and the foundation on
which the company has developed. Mining at Renison has been ongoing since early last century
and was restarted by Bluestone in 2005. A fall in tin price forced the mine into care and
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maintenance between 2005 and 2008. The restart utilized mining from the Mt Bischoff open pit
as well as underground at Renison.
Renison Bell is located near the town of Zeehan in Western Tasmania, 122km south of Burnie.
Renison is one of the world’s largest operating underground tin mines and Australia’s largest
primary tin producer.
Geology
Tin mineralisation is hosted in an extensional basin environment where a series of sediments
have been cut by a number of oblique slip faults. A granite batholith located just below the
deposit is believed to be the source of the tin-bearing fluids. These fluids favourably deposit in
the fault zones and a number of dolomite sedimentary horizons. The dolomites act as a very
favourable geochemical environment (a sponge) for deposition of the tin in a “Skarn-like”
deposit.
Currently fault mineralisation is a key focus of production at Renison and occurs where the
Federal-Bassett Fault and second-order faults are wide enough to be significantly mineralised in
their own right. Fault mineralisation contains less pyrrhotite than Skarn mineralisation, with
significant proportions of quartz. Base metal sulphides (including copper >1.0%), arsenopyrite,
bismuth as well as fluorite and tourmaline are all present in higher proportions than in the Skarn
mineralisation.
As with Renison Bell, Mount Bischoff is one of the three major Skarn, carbonate replacement,
pyrrhotite-cassiterite deposits within western Tasmania. The Mount Bischoff Mine is situated in
the Dundas Trough, a province underlain by a thick sequence of Neoproterozoic-Cambrian
siliciclastic and volcaniclastic rocks. Mount Bischoff was the world’s largest tin mine from 1875 to
1905, producing over 2,000 tonnes of tin metal a year
Resources
The project hosts a measured, indicated and inferred resource of 34Mt @ 0.82% Sn & 0.25% Cu.
Figure 22. Renison mineral resources (30 June 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Sn (%) Contained Tin (kt)
Measured 21.8 0.50 108
Indicated 8.6 1.42 122
Inferred 3.6 1.36 49
Total 34.0 0.82 279
Source: MLX
The resources include 21.2Mt @ 0.45% Sn for 95kt of tin in measured resources from the Rentails
(tailings dams) project. This obviously substantially dilutes grade of the overall measured
resource. A measured underground resource at Renison totals 0.6Mt @ 2.21% for 13,158t of Tin.
Mineral reserves were calculated using an US$23,000/t tin price. These reserves represent
approximately three years’ mine life.
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Figure 23. Renison mineral reserves (30 June 2014)
Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Sn (%) Contained Tin (kt)
Proved 0.7 1.60 11
Probable 25.6 0.63 162
Total 26.3 0.7 172
Source: MLX
Probable reserves include 20.4Mt @ 0.45% Sn for 91.3kt of tin from the Rentails tailings project.
Mining
The region has hosted a long period of tin mining since the discovery of Mt Bischoff in 1871 and
subsequent discovery of Renison in 1890.
Mining is contracted to Barminco. Mining is in the form of Avoca stoping and cut and fill mining.
The mine is a large underground operation that extends down to 1km vertical. The mine remains
relatively dry. Some isolated seismic activity has been reported at depth. Mine development
infrastructure is currently 2-3 years ahead of production and puts MLX in a comfortable position.
The recent discovery of the Central Federal Basset (CFB) zone in an area previously thought to be
barren has been a significant game changer at Renison. The area is accessed and drill tested
through the link drive between the Federal and Basset zones.
Processing and offtake
Renison produces the largest source of third party tin concentrate outside of China and is a
significant producer of good grade (55%) clean (for a fresh rock mine) tin concentrate. The
operation averages 7kt of tin per annum. The concentrate is low in impurities such as iron,
manganese, sulphur, arsenic and tungsten and consequently is in demand and avoids penalties.
Processing is a relatively complex interaction between flotation, gravity and leaching. The
infrastructure in place at Renison is impressive and indicative of the significant technical and
financial barriers to entry into the tin mining and production sector. Processing involves a
relatively fine grind to 63 microns on hard rock utilizing a number of ball mills and regrind mills.
Fortunately, grid power is extremely cheap in Tasmania at 8c/kwh so this fine grind doesn’t add
significant cost to the operation. The operation is largely driven by fixed costs and consequently
heavily dependent on heard grade.
Cassiterite (the dominant tin mineral at Renison) is an oxide. The ore first undergoes reverse
flotation to remove sulphide, a later tin oxide flotation phase and a gravity phase. The final
process is an acid leach to remove iron carbonate (siderite) from the final concentrate. 70% of
the tin recovers to concentrate.
There are three major smelters outside of China (Thailand, Malaysia and Peru) that dominate the
tin smelting sector. China charges a 10% import tax on tin concentrates making it less practical to
smelt in China (and utilize Yunnan Tin’s smelting capabilities for example). MLX does not have
long term offtake in place but usually enters 2-year contracts and sells at spot price to Thai Sarco
or Malaysian Smelting Company out of Thailand or Malaysia respectively.
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The resource at Renison is substantial and we are confident that there is sufficient ore to support
a 20-30 year operation at Renison. Several down dip and down plunge targets exist at the mine.
The two geological targets that are of most interest to us are the faulted offset to the dolomites
in the hanging wall to the Federal Fault and the potential for the same fault to intersect the main
granite batholith at depth.
Figure 24. Renison Long section – One of the largest tin systems in the world
Source: MLX
Rentails
Rentails resources and reserves are hosted within surface tailings dams at Renison. The Rentails
project involves the proposed construction of a tin fuming plant to fume tin through the staged
addition of sulphide to form tin sulphide gas. Oxygen is later added to precipitate the tin out of
the tin sulphide gas.
The tin market
Tin, like copper, was one of the first metals mined by man. As far as is known, it was first used as
a constituent in bronze. Later uses included alloying with lead in pewter, linings for cooking
vessels and tin roofing.
Tin production commenced from Australasia in the mid-19th century. Tin has been traded on the
London Metal Exchange since the establishment of the market in 1877.
Today, tin is used principally for the manufacture of solders (50%), tin chemicals (16%) for tin
plating iron and steel (15%) and in alloys (bronze and pewter - collectively 5%). The balance is
consumed in a variety of other applications, such as batteries, touch screens and glass
making. About 72% of new tin production emanates from the Asian region, principally China and
Indonesia, 18% from South America, with the balance sourced from Russia, Europe, Oceania and
Africa. World production of refined metal in 2015 is estimated to be approximately 362,000
tonnes, with consumption of about 368,000 tonnes. The supply deficit is expected to be met
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from stockpiles; however current stockpiles are estimated to be reaching cyclical lows with LME
stockpiles currently approaching less than 7,500t of tin, equivalent to only eight days of supply.
Tin consumption in 2014 was estimated to have grown by approximately 3.5%. Despite a short
term boom of artisanal tin exports from Myanmar over the last 12 to 18 months, global supply is
declining, in particular in Indonesia and Peru, while China production has remained flat. The
current market view is that production from Myanmar has now reach its peak and is anticipated
to start to decline. Forecasts for 2015 estimate a deficit of approximately 6,000 tonnes with tin
prices anticipated to substantially improve in the second half of year.
Tin is considered environmentally friendly due to its low toxicity and has therefore displaced
other metals in various applications such as lead in solder. As a result, relatively small amounts of
tin are used in millions of units such as mobile phones and computers and the dispersive nature
of its use has resulted in the creation of a relatively inelastic tin market with
limited opportunity for substitution. Tin continues to find additional opportunities
to substitute other non-friendly metals, not just in electronics, batteries and the automotive
industry, but in other application such as concrete, disc brakes, fire retardants, medicine,
agricultural industries, and as a fuel catalyst to reduce fuel consumption.
Wingellina Nickel Project, Western Australia (100%)
Wingellina is located in the Central Musgrave region of Western Australia immediately adjacent
to the border with South Australia and the Northern Territory. The Wingellina nickeliferous
limonite occurs in deeply and intensely weathered layered ultramafic rocks. The laterites are true
laterites and more akin to the tropical laterites of Indonesia than the saprolites seen elsewhere in
Western Australia.
Wingellina is a globally significant nickel project and one of the largest undeveloped nickeliferous
limonite accumulations in the world. The project has a measured, indicated and inferred JORC
resource of 183Mt @ 0.98% Ni and 0.08% Co for 1.8Mt Ni and 139kt Co. Of this enormous
resource 167Mt @ 0.98% Ni and 0.08% Co (1.7Mt Ni & 128Kt Co) reports to probable reserves.
The project has a low strip ratio (0.5:1) and is expected to process ore to nickel and cobalt
hydroxides through high pressure acid leach (HPAL) that utilizes significantly less acid than typical
Australian laterites.
However, the project is isolated and requires initial capital of A$2.5bn. At current nickel prices
this looks hard to justify, but if nickel prices lift (as many are forecasting), Wingellina could realise
substantial value for MLX. Clearly a strategic relationship with an investor with a larger balance
sheet would assist the development of the project.
Rover gold/copper project, Northern Territory (100%)
The Rover 1 deposit is an iron oxide-associated Au-Cu-Bi (+Co) deposit located 70 km southwest
of Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory of Australia. Rover 1 is one of a number of such
systems in the Rover field, which is thought to be analogous to the nearby prolific Tennant Creek
goldfield.
The Rover 1 prospects hosts an indicated and inferred JORC resource of 6.8 million tonnes at
(approx. 6g/t gold equiv) 1.73 g/t Au, 1.2% Cu. 0.14% Bi and 0.06% Co. Explorer 108, is a Pb-Zn
deposit recently discovered at Rover has a total mineral resource estimate of 11.87Mt @ 3.24%
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Zn, 2.0% Pb & 11.1g/t Ag. The company is currently drilling at Rover with results expected this
quarter.
The deposits are overlain by approximately 110m of consolidated Cambrian sediments. This
depth and the relatively low grade and isolated location create considerable challenges to
production.
A scoping study was completed on the project in 2010 that assumed a small underground mining
operation and processing plant at Rover. MLX has since discovered more ore at depth, but
considerable challenges to the project’s development remain.
Catalysts and risks
Key risks are summarized in the SWOT analysis on page 3. These include:
Risks
Commodity price risk: Commodity prices are currently lower than forecast. We expect growth in
prices later this year. MLX is diversified across a number of commodities.
Technical risk: Mining can be challenging and the underground mines are relatively deep.
However, the company has a strong track record of mining since 2008.
Potential upside
Organic growth: MLX has an exciting pipeline of development and exploration projects. Their
development could substantially increase the value of the company.
M&A: Positive cash flow positions the company to take advantage of deflated prices and look at
potential accretive M&A opportunities.
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Ticker MLX:ASX Financial Yr. End 30 June
Recommendation BUY Shares on issue (m) 416.0
Target Share price (A$) 1.82 Market Cap (A$) 553.3
Current Share price (A$) 1.33 Enterprise Value (A$) 440.0
Implied Return (%) 37% Cash qtr end (A$) 114.4
P/NAV (x) 0.37 Debt(A$) 1.1
Valuation Profit & Loss (A$m)
Asset Discount rate NAV "X" Factor NAV Target (A$) Target Price (A$) A$M FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Renison (50%) 10% 1.00 X $81.8 $0.20 Revenue $301.2 $486.2 $695.8 $696.0
Murchison 8% 0.85 X $152.0 $0.37 Cost of Sales $219.7 $349.6 $448.8 $511.5
Higginsville 8% 1.00 X $133.1 $0.32 Gross Profit $81.4 $136.6 $247.1 $184.5
South Kal 8% 0.90 X $70.9 $0.17 EBITDA $66.5 $98.8 $201.5 $139.0
Rover 8% 0.50 X $32.2 $0.08 Net Profit before tax $30.3 $45.3 $128.5 $42.4
Wingellina 10% 0.10 X $76.8 $0.18 Tax Payable $0.0 $0.0 (-$8.9) (-$7.7)
Exploration Upside n.a n.a $15.0 $0.04 Profit after tax $30.3 $45.3 $119.6 $34.8
Rentails (50%) n.a n.a $10.0 $0.02
Cash n.a n.a $114.4 $0.28 Balance Sheet
Listed investments n.a n.a $5.6 $0.01 AssetsCorporate (incl.gold loan & tax credits) 10% 1.00 X $65.3 $0.16 Cash $118.7 $127.0 $200.9 $244.5
Total NAV $757.1 $1.82 PPE & Exp. & Dev. $307.7 $331.1 $340.9 $321.6
Total Current Assets $173.8 $182.2 $256.1 $299.7
Total Assets $481.9 $513.7 $597.4 $621.7
LiabilitiesBorrowings $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1
Total Current Liabilities $55.9 $44.3 $41.4 $41.4
Total Liabilities $149.9 $129.7 $124.6 $124.6
Ratios and Key Financial DataEPS (AUDc) 7c 11c 29c 8c
FCFPS (A$) 17c 5c 26c 13c
P/E ratio (x) 18.2 12.2 4.6 15.9
P/FCF (x) 8.0 X 27.2 X 5.1 X 10.6 X
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 X 4.5 X 2.2 X 3.2 X
Current ratio (x) 3.1 4.1 6.2 7.2
Shares on Issue (M) 416.0 416.0 416.0 416.0
Cashflow GenerationCashflow generated $61.5 $8.4 $73.9 $43.6
Debt Funding $43.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Capital Expenditure (-$47.6) (-$78.4) (-$84.5) (-$78.9)
Dividend Payouts
Reserve and Resources Statement (attributable) Dividend paid (-$9.1) (-$13.6) (-$35.9) (-$10.4)
Status Tonnes (Mt) Grade Contained Dividend per share $0.02 $0.03 $0.09 $0.03
Gold Reserves 56.4 2.2 3,900,000 Dividend yield 1.65% 2.46% 6.49% 1.89%
Gold Resources 200.0 2.1 13,500,000
Nickel Reserve 167.5 1.0 1,645,000 Directors & Management Major ShareholdersNickel Resource 216.5 1.0 2,067,000 Non-Ex Chairman Peter Newton Apac Resources 23.9%
Tin Reserve 5.9 1.4 80,830 CEO/Director Peter Cooke Jinchuan 10.6%
Tin Resource 11.1 1.6 175,380 Directors Warren Hallam Blackrock 7.4%
Non Executive Director Andrew Ferguson Peter Cook 4.3%
Production Profile (t Sn,Oz Au) (attributable & before payabilities) Non Executive Director Paul Cmrlec Peter Newton 3.3%
Operation FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 Non Executive Director Simon Heggen Total 49.5%
Higginsville (oz Au) 124,298 118,848 118,848 118,848 Non Executive Director Xie Penggen
Renison (t Sn) 7,102 6,930 6,930 6,930
Murchison (oz Au) 0 86,645 201,450 204,328 Commodity Prices (A$)South Kal (oz Au) 22,193 59,019 81,116 81,116 AUD / t (oz) FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
Gold $1,475 $1,531 $1,531 $1,531
All in Sustaining Costs (A$) Tin $23,726 $24,813 $24,813 $23,469
FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 AUD:USD $0.83 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80
Higginsville (A$/oz) $1,157 $1,229 $1,229 $1,229
Renison (A$/t Sn) $19,783 $18,946 $18,946 $18,878
Murchison (A$/oz) $0 $1,343 $1,317 $1,577
South Kal (A$/oz) $2,012 $1,307 $1,212 $1,212 Source: Company data, GMP estimates.
11%
20%
18%
9%
4%
10%
2%
1%
15%
1%9%
Valuation Split (%)Renison (50%)
Murchison
Higginsville
South Kal
Rover
Wingellina
Exploration Upside
Rentails (50%)
Cash
Listed investments
Corporate (incl.goldloan & tax credits)
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Disclosures The information contained in this report is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it do GMP Securities L.P., GMP Securities Europe LLP or GMP Securities Australia Pty Limited (collectively referred to as “GMP”) assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever. Information on which this report is based is available upon request. This report is not to be construed as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. GMP and/or affiliated companies or persons may as principal or agent, buy and sell securities mentioned herein, including options, futures or other derivative instruments thereon. Griffiths McBurney Corp. (“GM Corp.”), an affiliate of GMP accepts responsibility for the contents of this research subject to the foregoing. U.S. clients wishing to effect transactions in any security referred to herein should do so through GM Corp. GMP Securities L.P. will provide upon request a statement of its financial condition and a list of the names of its Directors and senior officers. Company-Specific Disclosures: 1 GMP has, within the previous 12 months, provided paid investment banking services or acted as underwriter to the issuer. 2 GMP is a market maker for the securities of the subject issuer. 3 GMP owns 1% or more of this issuer’s securities. 4 GMP Securities, LLC, an affiliate of GMP, discloses the following in relation to this issuer as required by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) Rule 2711: as applicable. 5 The analyst is related to an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer, but that individual has no influence in the preparation of this report. 6 The analyst has visited the operations of this issuer. The issuer and/or GMP clients paid all or a portion of the travel expenses associated with the analyst’s site visit to its operations. 7 The analyst who prepared this report has viewed the operations of this issuer. 8 The analyst who prepared this research report owns this issuer's securities. 9 RESERVED 10 RESERVED Each research analyst and associate research analyst who authored this document and whose name appears herein certifies that: (1) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within their coverage universe; and (2) no part of their compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed herein. GMP Analysts are not registered and/or qualified as research analysts with the FINRA and/or the New York Stock Exchange and may not be associated persons of GMP Securities, LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account as defined by FINRA but are subject to the applicable regulatory rules as mentioned in the next paragraph. All relevant disclosures required by regulatory rules (including The Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, Financial Conduct Authority and Australian Securities & Investments Commission), GMP’s recommendation statistics and research dissemination policies can be obtained at www.gmpsecurities.com or by calling the relevant GMP office’s Compliance Department. GMP Analysts are compensated competitively based on several criteria. The Analyst compensation pool is comprised of several revenue sources, including secondary trading commissions, new issue commissions, investment banking fees, and directed payments from institutional clients. GMP prohibits any director, officer or employee of GMP from holding any office in publicly traded companies or any office in private companies in the financial services industry. The GMP research recommendation structure consists of the following ratings: Buy: A Buy rating reflects 1) bullish conviction on the part of the analyst; and 2) typically a 15% or greater return to target. Speculative Buy: A Speculative Buy rating reflects 1) bullish conviction on the part of the analyst accompanied by a substantially higher than normal risk, including the possibility of a binary outcome; and 2) typically a 30% or greater return to target. Hold: A Hold rating reflects 1) a lack of bullish or bearish conviction on the part of the analyst; and 2) typically a return of 0 to 20%. Reduce: A Reduce rating reflects 1) bearish conviction on the part of the analyst; and 2) typically a 5% or lower return to target. Tender: Clients are advised to tender their shares to a takeover bid or similar offer.
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