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Prepared by GMP Securities Australia Pty Limited See important disclosures on the last two pages of this report Equity Research Metals X 7 BUY MLX-ASX Last: A$1.33 July 15, 2015 Target: A$1.82 Rating BUY Target (A$) $1.82 Gold Production 2015E (koz) 146.49 Gold Production 2016E (koz) 264.51 Gold Production 2017E (koz) 401.41 Tin Production 2015E (kt) 7.10 Tin Production 2016E (kt) 6.93 Tin Production 2017E (kt) 6.93 Share Data Share o/s (mm, basic/f.d. itm) 52-week high/low (A$) Market cap (A$m) EV (A$m) Net debt (A$m) Projected return NAV0%/share NAV10%/share P/NAV0% P/NAV10% Financial Data YE June 30 FY15E FY16E FY17E Gold production (koz) 146.49 264.51 401.41 AISC(A$/oz) $1,286 $1,284 $1,270 Tin production (kt) 7.10 6.93 6.93 AISC(A$/t) $19,783 $18,946 $18,946 Capex (A$m) -$48 -$78 -$85 Free cashflow (A$m) $26.8 $22.0 $54.0 EPS $0.07 $0.11 $0.29 CFPS $0.15 $0.02 $0.18 P/E 18.2 12.2 4.6 P/CF 9.0 66.2 7.5 EV/EBITDA 6.6 4.5 2.2 All figures in A$ unless otherwise noted $0.00 $1.82 0.00 0.73 37% 416.0 1.56/0.62 $553.29 $439.95 -$113.34 Initiating coverage: Strong pipeline to growth Strong growth pipeline to >400koz pa Metals X (MLX-ASX) has four gold projects that host gold resources that total 14.2Moz. Annual gold production is forecast in excess of 400kozpa from 2017 making MLX a significant Australian gold producer. Profitable and diversified miner benefiting from a weak A$ MLX is profitable with a A$16m profit reported for the six months to 31 December 2014. MLX offers some commodity diversification through gold and tin production and gold, nickel and copper development assets. But operating four different operations provides additional operational diversification. All operations are in Australia and benefit from a weak Aussie as well as competitive labour costs in a low risk operating environment. Strong technical skills to turnaround low cost acquisitions MLX has certainly latched on to opportunities to consolidate gold projects in Western Australia through sensible low cost acquisitions. Management has then used strong technical know how to improve these operations and we expect this process to continue. The Australian gold sector has seen considerable M&A activity recently and MLX has the balance sheet and operational experience to benefit from this. Attractive and transparent dividend policy MLX paid its first dividend to shareholders in December 2014 and we expect more to come through a clear dividend policy that requires a payment of at least 30% of NPAT. Initiating with a BUY and price target of A$1.82/share Our SOTP valuation based price target indicates MLX is currently a BUY. We like the company and believe there is considerable upside potential on our valuation. Our valuation applies DCF valuations on Higginsville, SKO, CMGP, Renison, Wingellina and Rover; a peer aligned exploration portfolio valuation; and assumed 30 September cash. Duncan Hughes +61 8 6141 6322 [email protected]
Transcript
Page 1: GMP, 15 July 2015

Prepared by GMP Securities Australia Pty Limited See important disclosures on the last two pages of this report

Equity Research

Metals X7 BUY

MLX-ASX

Last:

A$1.33

July 15, 2015 Target: A$1.82

Rating BUY

Target (A$) $1.82

Gold Production 2015E (koz) 146.49

Gold Production 2016E (koz) 264.51

Gold Production 2017E (koz) 401.41

Tin Production 2015E (kt) 7.10

Tin Production 2016E (kt) 6.93

Tin Production 2017E (kt) 6.93

Share Data

Share o/s (mm, basic/f.d. itm)

52-week high/low (A$)

Market cap (A$m)

EV (A$m)

Net debt (A$m)

Projected return

NAV0%/share

NAV10%/share

P/NAV0%

P/NAV10%

Financial Data

YE June 30 FY15E FY16E FY17E

Gold production (koz) 146.49 264.51 401.41

AISC(A$/oz) $1,286 $1,284 $1,270

Tin production (kt) 7.10 6.93 6.93

AISC(A$/t) $19,783 $18,946 $18,946

Capex (A$m) -$48 -$78 -$85

Free cashflow (A$m) $26.8 $22.0 $54.0

EPS $0.07 $0.11 $0.29

CFPS $0.15 $0.02 $0.18

P/E 18.2 12.2 4.6

P/CF 9.0 66.2 7.5

EV/EBITDA 6.6 4.5 2.2 Al l figures in A$ unless otherwise noted

$0.00

$1.82

0.00

0.73

37%

416.0

1.56/0.62

$553.29

$439.95

-$113.34

Initiating coverage: Strong pipeline to growth

Strong growth pipeline to >400koz pa

Metals X (MLX-ASX) has four gold projects that host gold resources that total

14.2Moz. Annual gold production is forecast in excess of 400kozpa from 2017

making MLX a significant Australian gold producer.

Profitable and diversified miner benefiting from a weak A$

MLX is profitable with a A$16m profit reported for the six months to 31

December 2014. MLX offers some commodity diversification through gold

and tin production and gold, nickel and copper development assets. But

operating four different operations provides additional operational

diversification. All operations are in Australia and benefit from a weak Aussie

as well as competitive labour costs in a low risk operating environment.

Strong technical skills to turnaround low cost acquisitions

MLX has certainly latched on to opportunities to consolidate gold projects in

Western Australia through sensible low cost acquisitions. Management has

then used strong technical know how to improve these operations and we

expect this process to continue. The Australian gold sector has seen

considerable M&A activity recently and MLX has the balance sheet and

operational experience to benefit from this.

Attractive and transparent dividend policy

MLX paid its first dividend to shareholders in December 2014 and we expect

more to come through a clear dividend policy that requires a payment of at

least 30% of NPAT.

Initiating with a BUY and price target of A$1.82/share

Our SOTP valuation based price target indicates MLX is currently a BUY. We

like the company and believe there is considerable upside potential on our

valuation. Our valuation applies DCF valuations on Higginsville, SKO, CMGP,

Renison, Wingellina and Rover; a peer aligned exploration portfolio valuation;

and assumed 30 September cash.

Duncan Hughes +61 8 6141 6322

[email protected]

Page 2: GMP, 15 July 2015

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Equity Research

Investment case

We value Metals X on a sum of the parts basis, using a risked NAV calculated for its 100% interest

in the Higginsville, South Kal, Murchison and Wingellina projects, a 50% interest in Renison and a

75% interest in Rover. Cash and corporate valuations are assumed for 30 September 2015, as are

listed investments. Exploration upside is assumed using peer analysis on similar exploration

portfolios. A summary is shown in the following table.

Figure 1. MLX sum of the parts valuation (A$m)

Source: GMP research

Metals X is a quality, partially diversified and profitable miner. Commodity diversification through

gold and tin and across four different assets provides considerable protection against individual

asset underperformance.

MLX is profitable with a A$16m profit reported for the six months to 31 December 2014. At 31

March 2015 MLX had cash and working capital at a healthy A$123m with no debt (excluding a

A$40m gold loan).

Management has a good operational track record at Renison and has made impressive progress

lowering costs at Higginsville. The company’s assets are all benefiting from a weaker Australian

dollar, reduced labour and support costs and lower fuel costs.

MLX paid its first dividend to shareholders in December 2014 and we expect more to come

through a clear dividend policy that requires a payment of at least 30% of NPAT.

MLX has substantial carry forward tax losses that can be used to offset future tax payments.

These have substantial value in our model with no tax paid until FY17 and a reduced rate for five

years thereafter.

The company has four gold projects that host gold resources that total 14.2Moz. Annual gold

production is forecast in excess of 400kozpa from 2017 making MLX a significant Australian gold

producer. MLX has certainly latched on to the opportunities to consolidate gold projects in

Western Australia through sensible low cost acquisitions. Management has then used strong

technical know how to improve these operations and we expect this process to continue.

The recent acquisition in the Murchison looks set to be a game changer for the company. MLX is

in a very strong position to unlock the full potential of the project as it has the balance sheet,

Asset Discount rate NAV "X" Factor NAV Target (A$) Target Price (A$)

Renison (50%) 10% 1.00 X $81.8 $0.20

Murchison 8% 0.85 X $152.0 $0.37

Higginsville 8% 1.00 X $133.1 $0.32

South Kal 8% 0.90 X $70.9 $0.17

Rover 8% 0.50 X $32.2 $0.08

Wingellina 10% 0.10 X $76.8 $0.18

Exploration Upside n.a n.a $15.0 $0.04

Rentails (50%) n.a n.a $10.0 $0.02

Cash n.a n.a $114.4 $0.28

Listed investments n.a n.a $5.6 $0.01

Corporate (incl.gold loan & tax credits) 10% 1.00 X $65.3 $0.16

Total NAV $757.1 $1.82

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technical skills and (through ownership of the whole project) has the ability to operate from

several mining sources at once to diversify technical risk and achieve the desired blend for the

Bluebird Plant. This project currently achieves little market value and we expect a re-rating once

production commences and goals are achieved.

Renison is a globally significant tin producer with a long mine life and solid track record of

producing a high quality concentrate. To date the company has not suffered through not having a

long term offtake in place (it usually has 2-year contracts at spot in place), but Renison does

remain fully leveraged to both upside and downside in the tin price. Current margins are pretty

tight with MLX producing at all-in sustaining costs of ~A$19,000/t Sn (GMPe) and current tin

prices at A$19,200/t Sn. Clearly this is not sustainable long-term without a tin price rise.

Wingellina is a globally significant nickel project that could become extremely valuable should

nickel prices rise in line with most observers’ estimates. But the very high capital and challenges

developing HPAL technology make this a project that likely requires a strong strategic partner

with a large balance sheet and technical track record on HPAL.

With a capable management team, a strong balance sheet, production track record and strong

organic growth pipeline of additional development projects, we expect MLX to grow its business

through organic growth predominantly. But a strong balance sheet and extensive opportunities

also make low cost accretive M&A growth possible and management has a strong track record of

achieving this.

We feel MLX is currently undervalued based on our sum of the parts valuation. In our view, the

impressive cash flow performance, a partially diversified portfolio, a dividend stream,

management track record and excellent growth pipeline justify a premium to NAV. Consequently

we initiate with a BUY recommendation.

SWOT analysis

Strengths

Established profitable miner

Diversified commodity exposure

Strong management and balance sheet

Clear dividend policy

Australian dollar production

Cheap power in Tasmania

Globally significant Tin and Nickel Strong organic growth pipeline to >400kozpqa

Undervalued

Carry forward tax losses

Weaknesses

No reserve at SKO

Low tin price

Low nickel price

Threats

Commodity price volatility

Takeover risk

Development risk @ SKO & CMGP

No long term offtake for tin

Mine & capex sequencing at CMGP

Opportunities

Strong cash flow to support growth

Exploration upside

M&A utilising mining skills & cash

Consolidation in WA

Labour and power costs falling

Wingellina will be a significant asset in rising nickel price environment

Hedging tin, nickel or gold

Page 4: GMP, 15 July 2015

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Valuation

Higginsville Gold Mine (HGO)

We have modelled the Higginsville Mine to continue production at 1.0mtpa of ore until

December 2020. This assumes that an additional 0.3moz of reserves are sourced.

Figure 2. Higginsville assumed mine production plan (100% of project)

Mine Plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Total Plant Feed (kt) 947 1000 1000 1000

Average Head Grade (g/t Au) 4.4 4.0 4.0 4.0

Metallurgical Recovery (%) 93 91.5 91.5 91.5

Gold Produced (koz) 124 119 119 119 Source: GMP research

We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with

management and a review of financial reports.

Figure 3. Higginsville modelling assumptions (100% of project)

Assumption Life of Mine

Underground Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 100.00

Surface Mining Cost (A$/t rock) 3.50

Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 23.50

G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 11.00

Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 18.0

Exploration (A$m pa) 3.75

Government Royalty (%) 2.5

Morgan Stanley Royalty (%) 1.8*

LOM Average Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225

A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 * MS royalty includes price participation at 12.5% of difference between price received and A$1340/oz

Source: GMP research

We value the Higginsville Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV8% of A$133m and MLX’s

100% ownership at A$133m.

South Kal Gold Mine (SKO)

We have modelled the South Kal Mine to continue production at 0.9mtpa of ore until December

2020. This assumes that an additional 0.5moz of mining inventory are sourced. The operation

currently has no reserves defined.

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Figure 4. SKO assumed mine production plan (100% of project)

Mine Plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Total Plant Feed (kt) 828* 750 900 900

Average Head Grade (g/t Au) 0.91* 2.81 3.22 3.22

Metallurgical Recovery (%) 84* 87 87 87

Gold Produced (koz) 6* 59 81 81 * includes processing low grade stockpiles

Source: GMP research

We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with

management and a review of financial reports.

Figure 5. SKO modelling assumptions (100% of project)

Assumption Life of Mine

Underground Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 90.00

Surface Mining Cost (A$/t rock) 3.50

Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 20.00

G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 2.50

Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 10.0

Exploration (A$m pa) 3.00

Government Royalty (%) 0.0

Vendor Royalty (%) 2.0

LOM Average Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225

A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research

SKO also toll treats in the order of 300ktpa of third party ore which we have included in our

model.

We value the SKO Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV8% of A$79m. The operation is

fully developed and financed but is still ramping up and our assumptions are built around a

resource rather than reserve. Consequently we have risked our NAV at 0.9xNAV and value MLX’s

100% ownership at A$71m.

Central Murchison Gold project (CMGP)

We have modelled the Central Murchison project to commence production in FY16 at an average

LOM rate of 1.5mtpa of ore until mid-2028. This assumes that an additional 0.5moz of mining

inventory are sourced. The operation currently has 2.05moz of reserves defined from a 8.5moz

resource.

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Figure 6. CMGP assumed mine production plan (100% of project)

Mine Plan FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Total Plant Feed (kt) 800 1675 2000 1955

Average Head Grade (g/t Au) 3.74 4.16 3.53 3.58

Metallurgical Recovery (%) 90 90 90 90

Gold Produced (koz) 87 201 204 202 Source: GMP research

We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with

management and a review of financial reports.

Figure 7. CMGP modelling assumptions (100% of project)

Assumption Life of Mine

LOM Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 80.00

Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 22.25

G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 8.20

Initial capex (A$m) 41.4

Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 15.6

Exploration (A$m pa) 3.75

Government Royalty (%) 2.5

Vendor Royalty (%) 1.0

LOM Average Gold Price (US$/oz) 1,225

A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research

We value the CMGP Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV8% of A$179m. The operation is

still ramping up. Consequently we have risked our NAV at 0.85xNAV and value MLX’s 100%

ownership at A$152m.

Renison Tin Mine

We have modelled the Renison Mine to continue production at 0.66mtpa of ore until December

2024. This assumes that an additional 13kt Sn of reserves are sourced.

Figure 8. Renison assumed mine production plan

Mine Plan FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18

Total Plant Feed (kt) 661 660 660 660

Average Head Grade (% Sn) 1.54 1.5 1.5 1.5

Metallurgical Recovery (%) 70 70 70 70

Tin Produced (t Sn)* 7,102 6,930 6,930 6,930 *excludes a small amount of copper, before payabilities

Source: GMP research

We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations, discussions with

management and a review of financial reports.

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Figure 9. Renison modelling assumptions

Assumption Life of Mine

Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 105.00

Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 25.00

G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 13.00

Sn Payability (%) 92

Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 18.0

Exploration (A$m pa) 2.0

Government Royalty (%) 5.0

LOM Average Tin Price (US$/t) 18,350

A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research

We value the Renison Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV10% of A$164m and MLX’s

50% share at A$82m.

Wingellina Nickel project

We have modelled the Wingellina project to commence production in FY20 and ramp up to a rate

of 4mtpa of ore for 20 years. This assumes just 46% of reserves are processed.

Figure 10. Wingellina assumed mine production plan

Mine Plan FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23

Total Plant Feed (Mt) 1.6 3.0 3.5 4.0

Average Head Grade (% Ni) 1.33 1.33 1.21 1.17

Metallurgical Recovery (%) 92 92 92 92

Nickel Produced (t Ni)* 19,578 36,708 38,852 43,056 *excludes cobalt credits, before payabilities

Source: GMP research

We have assumed costs based on our experiences of similar mining operations and discussions

with management.

Figure 11. Wingellina modelling assumptions

Assumption Life of Mine

Mining Cost (A$/t ore) 4.20

Processing Cost (A$/t ore) 55.00

G&A Cost (A$/t ore) 15.00

Initial Capex (A$m) 2400.0

Sustaining Capex (A$m pa) 40.0

Exploration (A$m pa) 2.0

Government Royalty (%) 2.5

LOM Average Nickel Price (US$/t) 19,842

A$/US$ (Long term) 0.80 Source: GMP research

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We value the Wingellina Project on a post-tax basis, calculating an NPV10% of A$769m. But given

the enormous capex required, current nickel price and stage of development, we discount the

valuation to 0.1xNAV to arrive at a risked NAV of A$77m for MLX’s current 100% holding.

Rover gold/copper project

We have completed an NPV valuation of the Rover project based on the scoping study completed

by West Gold. We assume only the high grade portion of the deposit is mined and determine a

risked 0.5x NAV of A$32m for MLX’s 100% share in this undeveloped project.

Exploration tenure

We have determined a fair valuation for an exploration package of the size and quality of MLX’s

portfolio at A$15m. We value MLX’s 50% share in the Rentails project at A$10m.

Cash, corporate costs and investments

We value net cash of A$114m (GMPe 30 September 2015), listed investments of A$5.6m and

corporate costs (including the cost of the gold loan and the value of A$600m carry forward tax

losses) of A$65m (NPV10).

Total valuation

Our total discounted NAV valuation for Metals X is A$757m or A$1.82/share.

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Company overview

Background

MLX commenced life on the ASX as Bluestone Tin in 2004. Bluestone owned the historic Renison

and Mt Bischoff Mines in Tasmania and the Collingwood Tin project in Queensland. Renison was

commissioned in 2004 but put on care and maintenance in 2005 due to a fall in the tin price.

Bluestone merged with Metals X and renamed in 2006.

Renison was restarted in 2008 and MLX later sold 50% of the project to Yunnan Tin for A$50m in

2010. In October 2012 MLX acquired WestGold Resources Ltd (Murchison and Rover) by scheme

of arrangement and commenced the company’s push into the gold sector. This process continued

with the acquisition of Alacer Gold’s Australian assets (HGO and SKO) in October 2013 for A$40m.

The final piece of the puzzle came with the acquisition of Reed Resources’ gold plant and assets

to secure its 100% interest in its central Murchison project for A$9.5m in June 2014.

MLX paid its inaugural dividend in December 2014. In February 2015 the company signed a

binding agreement to acquire 75% of Tanami Gold’s Central Tanami Project only to see Tanami

Gold renege on the deal and sign the assets over to Northern Star Resources. A legal process is

ongoing.

Corporate summary

The company held working capital of A$122m at 31 March with effectively no debt (A$0.1m).

MLX’s dividend policy pays out a minimum of 30% of NPAT with the inaugural dividend paid in

December 2014. MLX has 416m shares on issue, no options, but 1.6m employee performance

rights that vest on 30 June 2017 dependent on share price growth targets.

MLX has a gold pre-pay facility with Citibank. The facility is down to A$25m in cash in return for

1,500oz Au per month until September 2016.

MLX is listed on the ASX (ASX300), the Frankfurt Exchange and OTCQX International Exchange in

the USA. Major shareholders are APAC Resources (24%) and Jinchuan (11%). MLX has listed

investments in Mongolian Resources (14.75%), NeoMetals (formerly Reed Resources) and Aziana

(13.75%) where MLX has agreed to underwrite A$3.5m of a A$4m capital raise planned this

month.

MLX has substantial carry forward tax losses that can be used to offset future tax payments. The

corporate entity has circa A$120m in losses that looks set to see no tax paid until CY17.

Thereafter MLX has A$480m in carry forward tax losses that it can use to offset tax on up to

17.8% of pre-tax profit resulting in substantially reduced tax payments until 2021.

M&A

The company is well positioned as a successful semi-diversified producer with an interest in a

globally significant tin mine and four gold projects. With positive cash flow, the company is well

positioned for M&A growth opportunities. However, MLX already has a strong pipeline of

development assets so does not need to rush.

The recent bid for Tanami Gold certainly indicates a desire for M&A growth, but as discussed

above, management can take their time assessing the options available given the existing

pipeline to organic growth.

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With such a large portfolio of projects, MLX also has the opportunity to divest non-core assets

such as Rover. MLX will also need to divest a significant stake in Wingellina should it wish to fund

the project capital requirement.

Gold Division

MLX has four gold projects with one currently operating at steady state (HGO), one ramping up

production (SKO), one developing (CMGP) and one at the PFS stage (Rover). Gold resources total

14.2Moz. MLX’s CY14 production was 160koz. FY16 production is forecast at 275koz with annual

production forecast in excess of 400kozpa thereafter.

Higginsville (HGO), Western Australia (100%)

Higginsville (HGO) was acquired as part of Alacer Gold’s Australian assets in 2013.

Gold mineralisation is typical of the prolific Archaean Norseman-Wiluna Greenstone Belt. Gold is

hosted in quartz veins and shear zones and is currently being mined from open pit and

underground operations.

Resources

The project hosts a measured, indicated and inferred resource of 13.3Mt @ 2.9g/t Au for 1.2Moz.

Figure 12. Higginsville mineral resources (30 June 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold(koz)

Measured 1.44 4.41 204

Indicated 8.18 2.95 777

Inferred 3.69 2.10 250

Total 13.31 2.88 1,231

Source: MLX

Mineral reserves were calculated at an assumed A$1,400/oz gold price. These reserves represent

approximately 2 years’ mine life. 279koz @ 5.5g/t Au of reserves (52%) are sourced from the

Trident ore body.

Figure 13. Higginsville mineral reserves (30 June 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold (Moz)

Proved 0.53 5.94 102

Probable 4.01 3.36 433

Total 4.54 3.67 535

Source: MLX

Mining

The Trident underground drives the Higginsville operation. Underground mining is currently from

the high grade Artemis quartz vein (mining width 1-3m) and the Helios shear zone where gold is

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hosted as veining and disseminated gold (mine width from 5-13m). Mining is long-hole open

stoping with a paste backfill from tails.

Historically mining has delivered a 10% improvement on grades in the reserve statement. The ore

body runs at between 1,500 and 2,500 ozpvm but grades and widths vary considerably over small

areas as is common in high grade gold deposits. The mine is dry and geotechnically stable.

Mineralisation has been defined down to 1,100m below surface at Trident and MLX is mining at

about 900m. The resource remains open at depth.

Figure 14. Trident mine reserves and infrastructure

Source: MLX

Open pit mining is currently from the Lake Cowan pits and trucked 15km to the plant at Trident.

The open pit mines produce a mixture of oxide and fresh material at an average strip ratio of 9:1.

Processing

Processing is through a gravity-CIL plant with ball mill name plate capacity of 1.2mtpa. Recoveries

are in the order of 97% from Trident and 85% from the Lake Cowan pits. Average residence time

is 36 hours which is quite slow. Ore is hard, especially from Lake Cowan and it is essential that the

slightly refractory and hard ore is blended (1:4) with the Trident ore. 60% of the Trident ore is

recovered using gravity and ore requires a fairly coarse grind. Both are favourable for operating

costs.

Since acquiring the project, MLX has focussed on cutting costs through renegotiating contracts in

a competitive contractor environment, restructuring the Morgan Stanley royalty and

campaigning plant operations. The Morgan Stanley royalty was previously 4.5% NSR. MLX has

renegotiated the royalty to a 1.8% NSR and a gold sharing agreement whereby Morgan Stanley

receive ~12% of the gold if sold above a floor price of A$1340/oz. We estimate this renegotiated

royalty equates to a saving of A$100/oz for MLX at current prices. The plant currently batch

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processes ore on a 9-day campaign every fortnight. Diesel prices have also fallen and result in

power costs of 22c kwh, substantially lower than during Alacer’s tenure.

Exploration upside

The Trident underground remains open down plunge. A parallel trend to Trident has been

hypothesised for the Two Boys trend. The company is drill testing this target in the footwall to

the Trident underground currently. Open pit ore is currently expected to last until 2019.

The recent discovery by Sirius Resources at the Baloo prospect is just a short distance from the

Higginsville plant. In our view, it is possible that ore from this discovery would be treated by MLX

and some sort of arrangement with Sirius seems likely.

Figure 15. Line of lode potential at Higginsville

Source: MLX

South Kal (SKO), Western Australia (100%)

The operation is located only a short distance south of the gold mining centre of Kalgoorlie

Boulder. The operation includes the historic Celebration Mine and the substantial Hampton-

Boulder-Jubilee (HBJ) mine. The company is in the process of redeveloping the HBJ underground

and we expect first production this quarter. The operation is situated on freehold ground and

state royalties do not apply. SKO is connected to grid power, so power costs are substantially

reduced.

Geology

Mineralisation is hosted within the prolific Boulder-Lefroy shear zone. Mineralisation is localized

where a porphyry body intrudes the shear zone creating a structural jog and rheological trap.

Mineralisation is associated with an alteration assemblage of potassium-feldspar, biotite,

chlorite, carbonate, silica, pyrite and veins of quartz, carbonate and pyrite.

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Resources

The project hosts a substantial measured, indicated and inferred resource of 3.2Moz Au.

Figure 16. SKO mineral resources (30 June 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold(Koz)

Measured 2.4 1.75 132

Indicated 31.5 1.97 1,989

Inferred 16.6 2.05 1,093

Total 50.4 1.98 3,214

Source: MLX

The resource was reported at a 0.7g/t Au lower cut. A significant portion of this resource is likely

to be mined from underground and management guides a 4.5g/t Au head grade for this. We have

assumed just 9% of this resource is mined from the HBJ underground at 4.5g/t Au.

Mineral reserves are yet to be calculated. We expect a reserve statement next quarter to give

greater confidence at SKO.

Mining

There has been limited mining this financial year at SKO as processing has been focussed on pre-

existing stockpiles and toll treating ores. Mining from the HBJ underground has commenced this

quarter. Mining has required a new portal and decline into the existing underground operation

with historic underground infrastructure refurbished to ore. Mining will utilize long-hole open

stoping.

Historically mining has been focussed on the southern (SOZ), central (COZ) and northern (NOZ)

ore zones. Mining has recommenced on the SOZ which historically mined 580kt @ 8.0g/t Au.

Alacer had planned a bulk tonnage “super-pit” at HBJ but gold prices made the large amount of

capital required hard to justify. MLX plan a smaller underground and satellite open pit operation

on the 3moz resource base that will require significantly lower capital expenditure.

Figure 17. HBJ mine and drilling on long section

Source: MLX

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Historically the HBJ mine was separated by a tenement boundary and mined by two separate

miners. MLX now has the opportunity to mine the operation as one.

Mining from surface will be sourced from a number of open pit mines that include the Trojan pit,

Location 59 pits and Penfolds pits. These pits average 2.0g/t Au and high strip ratios of 11:1.

However, low power costs and low state royalties make them economic and a sensible blend with

the higher grade HBJ ore.

Processing

Last quarter SKO processed ore from the HGO Lake Cowan pits as well as toll treating third party

ore. This quarter we expect higher grade ore from the HBJ underground.

Processing is through a CIL plant with ball mill name plate capacity of 1.2mtpa. Recoveries are

expected to be in the order of 90%.

Cheaper grid power and no state royalty as well as the proximity to Kalgoorlie infrastructure and

accommodation greatly assist margins at SKO.

Toll treating

MLX is currently treating circa 300,00tpa of third party ore through the SKO plant. We estimate

that the company makes A$1.5mpa from this toll treating arrangement.

Cannon Mine Development with Southern Gold

Metals X is currently co-developing the Cannon Mine with Southern Gold (SAU:ASX). The stage 1

open pit is designed to mine 152kt of ore at a fully diluted run of mine grade of 3.1g/t Au

containing 15koz of gold, with 13.5koz gold recovered with a C1 operating cost of A$1053/Oz Au.

Mining will commence once the final access agreement with the pastoral leaseholder is executed

and the mine contractor has been mobilised to site. First gold pour is expected in December

2015.

All capital, mining, haulage and processing costs will be funded by Metals X and recovered

through project operating cash flow with net profit distributed 50/50 to each party in the second

quarter CY2016. A A$0.5m loan from Metals X to SAU will also be repaid in full at this time.

Exploration upside

There is considerable potential to extend the resource down dip of the currently defined HBJ

resource.

The SKO tenement is large and covers 2,000km2 of the prospective Boulder-Lefroy and Zuleika

shear zones. MLX reports 280 exploration targets at the project.

Central Murchison, Western Australia (100%)

MLX has a large tenement holding in the Murchison of Western Australia. The project hosts a

number of significant mines including Big Bell, Great Fingall and Paddys Flats. The project has

produced over 10moz of gold, hosts 8.5moz in resources and is expected to produce 200kozpa.

The project was acquired for circa A$40m from WestGold Resources and Reed Resources’

administrators and hosts the Bluebird processing plant and infrastructure.

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Figure 18. CMGP tenement holding

Source: MLX

The Meekatharra tenements have a recent history of failure. Previous owner Reed Resources was

forced into administration when a large cutback on the Bluebird Pit failed to hit ore where

expected. Mercator Mining also failed at the project as slumping in the Surprise Pit caused the

company to terminate operations. Both companies had small balance sheets and were focussed

on just one operation.

We believe MLX will succeed where others have failed because it has the balance sheet, technical

skills and (through ownership of the whole project) has the ability to operate from several mining

sources at once to diversify technical risk and achieve the desired blend for the Bluebird plant.

Resources

The project hosts a substantial measured, indicated and inferred resource of 8.5Moz.

Figure 19. CMGP mineral resources (31 December 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold(Koz)

Measured 0.1 1.4 5

Indicated 78.5 2.1 5,350

Inferred 49.6 2.0 3,140

Total 128.0 2.1 8,495

Source: MLX

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Mineral reserves were calculated at an assumed A$1,500/oz gold price.

Figure 20. CMGP mineral reserves (31 December 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Au (g/t) Contained Gold (Moz)

Proved - - -

Probable 21.3 3.0 2,046

Total 21.3 3.0 2,046

Source: MLX

Mining

Mine scheduling will be the main challenge and advantage at CMGP. The company has 72

separate ore sources to choose from which provides significant flexibility over the 13-year mine

life. However, timing of these operations and associated capital spend will be a challenge to

maintain a consistent blend and output through the Bluebird Processing plant whilst ensuring

minimal pressure on the company balance sheet.

At the time of our site visit, the company was dewatering the Paddys Flats open pits in

preparation for underground mining and pre-stripping the Whangamata and Batavia open pits.

The company expects to award an underground mining contract imminently but plans to owner

operate open cut mining. All significant ore sources are on mining licences with no impediments

to mining foreseen.

The Paddys Flats operation is designed as an underground mine beneath a sequence of

previously mined open pits. The operation will mine mineralisation along a shear zone where

mining widths support long-hole open stoping. The underground mine will also access the

Prohibition BIF where grades and widths support large open stopes. Ground conditions are

expected to be good despite the presence of ultramafic schist in the hanging wall to the mine.

At the same time the company intends to develop an open pit mine and future underground

operation at the historic Great Fingalls and Golden Crown Mines near Cue. This operation will

truck ore 100km to the Bluebird plant along the Great Northern Highway. The grade at the

operations is expected to support this haulage (assuming 10c/tkm); although we see some risk to

grade initially as the company mines through an area previously mined as narrow high grade adits

in the early 1900s.

Mineralisation at Great Fingalls is hosted within a competent dolerite unit similar to that hosting

the prolific Golden Mile mineralisation at Kalgoorlie. Better gold mineralisation is located where

the dolerite is intersected by cross cutting shears.

The company also plans to re-open the large Big Bell operation to the west of Cue. This mine has

a history of seismic challenges on the large bulk tonnage caving operation. However, MLX intends

a lower tonnage operation using modern technology and retreat mining that it is confident will

enable a steady 800ktpa of ore from Big Bell.

At Reedys a number of open pit cutbacks and underground operations are planned along the

Reedy Shear zone. These operations are located some 60km from the plant.

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Figure 21. Great Fingalls Mine with Golden Crown shaft in the background

Source: GMP research

Processing

The Bluebird plant has the capacity to operate at 3mtpa and consists of a large CIL circuit and a

small gravity circuit and all necessary infrastructure. MLX is in the process of refurbishing this

plant. The plant will require a blend of oxide and fresh material and processing will be dependent

on the blend of grades and expected recoveries from various ore sources from open cut and

underground. Feeding this large plant will be the key challenge for MLX but with 72 ore sources,

this looks achievable. MLX intend to operate the plant on a campaign basis.

We anticipate 1.5-2.0mtpa feeding the plant with recoveries in the region of 90% sourced from a

blend of underground and open-cut ore sources as follows:

Big Bell ~800ktpa

Great Fingalls/Golden Crown ~300ktpa

Paddys Flat underground ~400ktpa

Satellite pits and Reedys/Nannine – 200-300ktpa

Exploration upside

Exploration is currently focussed on converting the 8.5moz resource to reserves.

Renison Tin mine, Tasmania (50%)

The Renison Bell Tin Mine is the original asset owned by Bluestone Tin and the foundation on

which the company has developed. Mining at Renison has been ongoing since early last century

and was restarted by Bluestone in 2005. A fall in tin price forced the mine into care and

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maintenance between 2005 and 2008. The restart utilized mining from the Mt Bischoff open pit

as well as underground at Renison.

Renison Bell is located near the town of Zeehan in Western Tasmania, 122km south of Burnie.

Renison is one of the world’s largest operating underground tin mines and Australia’s largest

primary tin producer.

Geology

Tin mineralisation is hosted in an extensional basin environment where a series of sediments

have been cut by a number of oblique slip faults. A granite batholith located just below the

deposit is believed to be the source of the tin-bearing fluids. These fluids favourably deposit in

the fault zones and a number of dolomite sedimentary horizons. The dolomites act as a very

favourable geochemical environment (a sponge) for deposition of the tin in a “Skarn-like”

deposit.

Currently fault mineralisation is a key focus of production at Renison and occurs where the

Federal-Bassett Fault and second-order faults are wide enough to be significantly mineralised in

their own right. Fault mineralisation contains less pyrrhotite than Skarn mineralisation, with

significant proportions of quartz. Base metal sulphides (including copper >1.0%), arsenopyrite,

bismuth as well as fluorite and tourmaline are all present in higher proportions than in the Skarn

mineralisation.

As with Renison Bell, Mount Bischoff is one of the three major Skarn, carbonate replacement,

pyrrhotite-cassiterite deposits within western Tasmania. The Mount Bischoff Mine is situated in

the Dundas Trough, a province underlain by a thick sequence of Neoproterozoic-Cambrian

siliciclastic and volcaniclastic rocks. Mount Bischoff was the world’s largest tin mine from 1875 to

1905, producing over 2,000 tonnes of tin metal a year

Resources

The project hosts a measured, indicated and inferred resource of 34Mt @ 0.82% Sn & 0.25% Cu.

Figure 22. Renison mineral resources (30 June 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Sn (%) Contained Tin (kt)

Measured 21.8 0.50 108

Indicated 8.6 1.42 122

Inferred 3.6 1.36 49

Total 34.0 0.82 279

Source: MLX

The resources include 21.2Mt @ 0.45% Sn for 95kt of tin in measured resources from the Rentails

(tailings dams) project. This obviously substantially dilutes grade of the overall measured

resource. A measured underground resource at Renison totals 0.6Mt @ 2.21% for 13,158t of Tin.

Mineral reserves were calculated using an US$23,000/t tin price. These reserves represent

approximately three years’ mine life.

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Figure 23. Renison mineral reserves (30 June 2014)

Category Tonnes (Mt) Grade Sn (%) Contained Tin (kt)

Proved 0.7 1.60 11

Probable 25.6 0.63 162

Total 26.3 0.7 172

Source: MLX

Probable reserves include 20.4Mt @ 0.45% Sn for 91.3kt of tin from the Rentails tailings project.

Mining

The region has hosted a long period of tin mining since the discovery of Mt Bischoff in 1871 and

subsequent discovery of Renison in 1890.

Mining is contracted to Barminco. Mining is in the form of Avoca stoping and cut and fill mining.

The mine is a large underground operation that extends down to 1km vertical. The mine remains

relatively dry. Some isolated seismic activity has been reported at depth. Mine development

infrastructure is currently 2-3 years ahead of production and puts MLX in a comfortable position.

The recent discovery of the Central Federal Basset (CFB) zone in an area previously thought to be

barren has been a significant game changer at Renison. The area is accessed and drill tested

through the link drive between the Federal and Basset zones.

Processing and offtake

Renison produces the largest source of third party tin concentrate outside of China and is a

significant producer of good grade (55%) clean (for a fresh rock mine) tin concentrate. The

operation averages 7kt of tin per annum. The concentrate is low in impurities such as iron,

manganese, sulphur, arsenic and tungsten and consequently is in demand and avoids penalties.

Processing is a relatively complex interaction between flotation, gravity and leaching. The

infrastructure in place at Renison is impressive and indicative of the significant technical and

financial barriers to entry into the tin mining and production sector. Processing involves a

relatively fine grind to 63 microns on hard rock utilizing a number of ball mills and regrind mills.

Fortunately, grid power is extremely cheap in Tasmania at 8c/kwh so this fine grind doesn’t add

significant cost to the operation. The operation is largely driven by fixed costs and consequently

heavily dependent on heard grade.

Cassiterite (the dominant tin mineral at Renison) is an oxide. The ore first undergoes reverse

flotation to remove sulphide, a later tin oxide flotation phase and a gravity phase. The final

process is an acid leach to remove iron carbonate (siderite) from the final concentrate. 70% of

the tin recovers to concentrate.

There are three major smelters outside of China (Thailand, Malaysia and Peru) that dominate the

tin smelting sector. China charges a 10% import tax on tin concentrates making it less practical to

smelt in China (and utilize Yunnan Tin’s smelting capabilities for example). MLX does not have

long term offtake in place but usually enters 2-year contracts and sells at spot price to Thai Sarco

or Malaysian Smelting Company out of Thailand or Malaysia respectively.

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The resource at Renison is substantial and we are confident that there is sufficient ore to support

a 20-30 year operation at Renison. Several down dip and down plunge targets exist at the mine.

The two geological targets that are of most interest to us are the faulted offset to the dolomites

in the hanging wall to the Federal Fault and the potential for the same fault to intersect the main

granite batholith at depth.

Figure 24. Renison Long section – One of the largest tin systems in the world

Source: MLX

Rentails

Rentails resources and reserves are hosted within surface tailings dams at Renison. The Rentails

project involves the proposed construction of a tin fuming plant to fume tin through the staged

addition of sulphide to form tin sulphide gas. Oxygen is later added to precipitate the tin out of

the tin sulphide gas.

The tin market

Tin, like copper, was one of the first metals mined by man. As far as is known, it was first used as

a constituent in bronze. Later uses included alloying with lead in pewter, linings for cooking

vessels and tin roofing.

Tin production commenced from Australasia in the mid-19th century. Tin has been traded on the

London Metal Exchange since the establishment of the market in 1877.

Today, tin is used principally for the manufacture of solders (50%), tin chemicals (16%) for tin

plating iron and steel (15%) and in alloys (bronze and pewter - collectively 5%). The balance is

consumed in a variety of other applications, such as batteries, touch screens and glass

making. About 72% of new tin production emanates from the Asian region, principally China and

Indonesia, 18% from South America, with the balance sourced from Russia, Europe, Oceania and

Africa. World production of refined metal in 2015 is estimated to be approximately 362,000

tonnes, with consumption of about 368,000 tonnes. The supply deficit is expected to be met

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from stockpiles; however current stockpiles are estimated to be reaching cyclical lows with LME

stockpiles currently approaching less than 7,500t of tin, equivalent to only eight days of supply.

Tin consumption in 2014 was estimated to have grown by approximately 3.5%. Despite a short

term boom of artisanal tin exports from Myanmar over the last 12 to 18 months, global supply is

declining, in particular in Indonesia and Peru, while China production has remained flat. The

current market view is that production from Myanmar has now reach its peak and is anticipated

to start to decline. Forecasts for 2015 estimate a deficit of approximately 6,000 tonnes with tin

prices anticipated to substantially improve in the second half of year.

Tin is considered environmentally friendly due to its low toxicity and has therefore displaced

other metals in various applications such as lead in solder. As a result, relatively small amounts of

tin are used in millions of units such as mobile phones and computers and the dispersive nature

of its use has resulted in the creation of a relatively inelastic tin market with

limited opportunity for substitution. Tin continues to find additional opportunities

to substitute other non-friendly metals, not just in electronics, batteries and the automotive

industry, but in other application such as concrete, disc brakes, fire retardants, medicine,

agricultural industries, and as a fuel catalyst to reduce fuel consumption.

Wingellina Nickel Project, Western Australia (100%)

Wingellina is located in the Central Musgrave region of Western Australia immediately adjacent

to the border with South Australia and the Northern Territory. The Wingellina nickeliferous

limonite occurs in deeply and intensely weathered layered ultramafic rocks. The laterites are true

laterites and more akin to the tropical laterites of Indonesia than the saprolites seen elsewhere in

Western Australia.

Wingellina is a globally significant nickel project and one of the largest undeveloped nickeliferous

limonite accumulations in the world. The project has a measured, indicated and inferred JORC

resource of 183Mt @ 0.98% Ni and 0.08% Co for 1.8Mt Ni and 139kt Co. Of this enormous

resource 167Mt @ 0.98% Ni and 0.08% Co (1.7Mt Ni & 128Kt Co) reports to probable reserves.

The project has a low strip ratio (0.5:1) and is expected to process ore to nickel and cobalt

hydroxides through high pressure acid leach (HPAL) that utilizes significantly less acid than typical

Australian laterites.

However, the project is isolated and requires initial capital of A$2.5bn. At current nickel prices

this looks hard to justify, but if nickel prices lift (as many are forecasting), Wingellina could realise

substantial value for MLX. Clearly a strategic relationship with an investor with a larger balance

sheet would assist the development of the project.

Rover gold/copper project, Northern Territory (100%)

The Rover 1 deposit is an iron oxide-associated Au-Cu-Bi (+Co) deposit located 70 km southwest

of Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory of Australia. Rover 1 is one of a number of such

systems in the Rover field, which is thought to be analogous to the nearby prolific Tennant Creek

goldfield.

The Rover 1 prospects hosts an indicated and inferred JORC resource of 6.8 million tonnes at

(approx. 6g/t gold equiv) 1.73 g/t Au, 1.2% Cu. 0.14% Bi and 0.06% Co. Explorer 108, is a Pb-Zn

deposit recently discovered at Rover has a total mineral resource estimate of 11.87Mt @ 3.24%

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Zn, 2.0% Pb & 11.1g/t Ag. The company is currently drilling at Rover with results expected this

quarter.

The deposits are overlain by approximately 110m of consolidated Cambrian sediments. This

depth and the relatively low grade and isolated location create considerable challenges to

production.

A scoping study was completed on the project in 2010 that assumed a small underground mining

operation and processing plant at Rover. MLX has since discovered more ore at depth, but

considerable challenges to the project’s development remain.

Catalysts and risks

Key risks are summarized in the SWOT analysis on page 3. These include:

Risks

Commodity price risk: Commodity prices are currently lower than forecast. We expect growth in

prices later this year. MLX is diversified across a number of commodities.

Technical risk: Mining can be challenging and the underground mines are relatively deep.

However, the company has a strong track record of mining since 2008.

Potential upside

Organic growth: MLX has an exciting pipeline of development and exploration projects. Their

development could substantially increase the value of the company.

M&A: Positive cash flow positions the company to take advantage of deflated prices and look at

potential accretive M&A opportunities.

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Ticker MLX:ASX Financial Yr. End 30 June

Recommendation BUY Shares on issue (m) 416.0

Target Share price (A$) 1.82 Market Cap (A$) 553.3

Current Share price (A$) 1.33 Enterprise Value (A$) 440.0

Implied Return (%) 37% Cash qtr end (A$) 114.4

P/NAV (x) 0.37 Debt(A$) 1.1

Valuation Profit & Loss (A$m)

Asset Discount rate NAV "X" Factor NAV Target (A$) Target Price (A$) A$M FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Renison (50%) 10% 1.00 X $81.8 $0.20 Revenue $301.2 $486.2 $695.8 $696.0

Murchison 8% 0.85 X $152.0 $0.37 Cost of Sales $219.7 $349.6 $448.8 $511.5

Higginsville 8% 1.00 X $133.1 $0.32 Gross Profit $81.4 $136.6 $247.1 $184.5

South Kal 8% 0.90 X $70.9 $0.17 EBITDA $66.5 $98.8 $201.5 $139.0

Rover 8% 0.50 X $32.2 $0.08 Net Profit before tax $30.3 $45.3 $128.5 $42.4

Wingellina 10% 0.10 X $76.8 $0.18 Tax Payable $0.0 $0.0 (-$8.9) (-$7.7)

Exploration Upside n.a n.a $15.0 $0.04 Profit after tax $30.3 $45.3 $119.6 $34.8

Rentails (50%) n.a n.a $10.0 $0.02

Cash n.a n.a $114.4 $0.28 Balance Sheet

Listed investments n.a n.a $5.6 $0.01 AssetsCorporate (incl.gold loan & tax credits) 10% 1.00 X $65.3 $0.16 Cash $118.7 $127.0 $200.9 $244.5

Total NAV $757.1 $1.82 PPE & Exp. & Dev. $307.7 $331.1 $340.9 $321.6

Total Current Assets $173.8 $182.2 $256.1 $299.7

Total Assets $481.9 $513.7 $597.4 $621.7

LiabilitiesBorrowings $0.1 $0.1 $0.1 $0.1

Total Current Liabilities $55.9 $44.3 $41.4 $41.4

Total Liabilities $149.9 $129.7 $124.6 $124.6

Ratios and Key Financial DataEPS (AUDc) 7c 11c 29c 8c

FCFPS (A$) 17c 5c 26c 13c

P/E ratio (x) 18.2 12.2 4.6 15.9

P/FCF (x) 8.0 X 27.2 X 5.1 X 10.6 X

EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 X 4.5 X 2.2 X 3.2 X

Current ratio (x) 3.1 4.1 6.2 7.2

Shares on Issue (M) 416.0 416.0 416.0 416.0

Cashflow GenerationCashflow generated $61.5 $8.4 $73.9 $43.6

Debt Funding $43.7 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

Capital Expenditure (-$47.6) (-$78.4) (-$84.5) (-$78.9)

Dividend Payouts

Reserve and Resources Statement (attributable) Dividend paid (-$9.1) (-$13.6) (-$35.9) (-$10.4)

Status Tonnes (Mt) Grade Contained Dividend per share $0.02 $0.03 $0.09 $0.03

Gold Reserves 56.4 2.2 3,900,000 Dividend yield 1.65% 2.46% 6.49% 1.89%

Gold Resources 200.0 2.1 13,500,000

Nickel Reserve 167.5 1.0 1,645,000 Directors & Management Major ShareholdersNickel Resource 216.5 1.0 2,067,000 Non-Ex Chairman Peter Newton Apac Resources 23.9%

Tin Reserve 5.9 1.4 80,830 CEO/Director Peter Cooke Jinchuan 10.6%

Tin Resource 11.1 1.6 175,380 Directors Warren Hallam Blackrock 7.4%

Non Executive Director Andrew Ferguson Peter Cook 4.3%

Production Profile (t Sn,Oz Au) (attributable & before payabilities) Non Executive Director Paul Cmrlec Peter Newton 3.3%

Operation FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 Non Executive Director Simon Heggen Total 49.5%

Higginsville (oz Au) 124,298 118,848 118,848 118,848 Non Executive Director Xie Penggen

Renison (t Sn) 7,102 6,930 6,930 6,930

Murchison (oz Au) 0 86,645 201,450 204,328 Commodity Prices (A$)South Kal (oz Au) 22,193 59,019 81,116 81,116 AUD / t (oz) FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018

Gold $1,475 $1,531 $1,531 $1,531

All in Sustaining Costs (A$) Tin $23,726 $24,813 $24,813 $23,469

FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 AUD:USD $0.83 $0.80 $0.80 $0.80

Higginsville (A$/oz) $1,157 $1,229 $1,229 $1,229

Renison (A$/t Sn) $19,783 $18,946 $18,946 $18,878

Murchison (A$/oz) $0 $1,343 $1,317 $1,577

South Kal (A$/oz) $2,012 $1,307 $1,212 $1,212 Source: Company data, GMP estimates.

11%

20%

18%

9%

4%

10%

2%

1%

15%

1%9%

Valuation Split (%)Renison (50%)

Murchison

Higginsville

South Kal

Rover

Wingellina

Exploration Upside

Rentails (50%)

Cash

Listed investments

Corporate (incl.goldloan & tax credits)

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Disclosures The information contained in this report is drawn from sources believed to be reliable but the accuracy or completeness of the information is not guaranteed, nor in providing it do GMP Securities L.P., GMP Securities Europe LLP or GMP Securities Australia Pty Limited (collectively referred to as “GMP”) assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever. Information on which this report is based is available upon request. This report is not to be construed as a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. GMP and/or affiliated companies or persons may as principal or agent, buy and sell securities mentioned herein, including options, futures or other derivative instruments thereon. Griffiths McBurney Corp. (“GM Corp.”), an affiliate of GMP accepts responsibility for the contents of this research subject to the foregoing. U.S. clients wishing to effect transactions in any security referred to herein should do so through GM Corp. GMP Securities L.P. will provide upon request a statement of its financial condition and a list of the names of its Directors and senior officers. Company-Specific Disclosures: 1 GMP has, within the previous 12 months, provided paid investment banking services or acted as underwriter to the issuer. 2 GMP is a market maker for the securities of the subject issuer. 3 GMP owns 1% or more of this issuer’s securities. 4 GMP Securities, LLC, an affiliate of GMP, discloses the following in relation to this issuer as required by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (“FINRA”) Rule 2711: as applicable. 5 The analyst is related to an officer, director or advisory board member of the issuer, but that individual has no influence in the preparation of this report. 6 The analyst has visited the operations of this issuer. The issuer and/or GMP clients paid all or a portion of the travel expenses associated with the analyst’s site visit to its operations. 7 The analyst who prepared this report has viewed the operations of this issuer. 8 The analyst who prepared this research report owns this issuer's securities. 9 RESERVED 10 RESERVED Each research analyst and associate research analyst who authored this document and whose name appears herein certifies that: (1) the recommendations and opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect their personal views about any and all of the securities or issuers discussed herein that are within their coverage universe; and (2) no part of their compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed herein. GMP Analysts are not registered and/or qualified as research analysts with the FINRA and/or the New York Stock Exchange and may not be associated persons of GMP Securities, LLC and therefore may not be subject to FINRA Rule 2711 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account as defined by FINRA but are subject to the applicable regulatory rules as mentioned in the next paragraph. All relevant disclosures required by regulatory rules (including The Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, Financial Conduct Authority and Australian Securities & Investments Commission), GMP’s recommendation statistics and research dissemination policies can be obtained at www.gmpsecurities.com or by calling the relevant GMP office’s Compliance Department. GMP Analysts are compensated competitively based on several criteria. The Analyst compensation pool is comprised of several revenue sources, including secondary trading commissions, new issue commissions, investment banking fees, and directed payments from institutional clients. GMP prohibits any director, officer or employee of GMP from holding any office in publicly traded companies or any office in private companies in the financial services industry. The GMP research recommendation structure consists of the following ratings: Buy: A Buy rating reflects 1) bullish conviction on the part of the analyst; and 2) typically a 15% or greater return to target. Speculative Buy: A Speculative Buy rating reflects 1) bullish conviction on the part of the analyst accompanied by a substantially higher than normal risk, including the possibility of a binary outcome; and 2) typically a 30% or greater return to target. Hold: A Hold rating reflects 1) a lack of bullish or bearish conviction on the part of the analyst; and 2) typically a return of 0 to 20%. Reduce: A Reduce rating reflects 1) bearish conviction on the part of the analyst; and 2) typically a 5% or lower return to target. Tender: Clients are advised to tender their shares to a takeover bid or similar offer.

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Country-Specific Disclaimers: Australia: GMP Securities Australia Pty Limited (“GMP Australia”). ACN 149 263 543; Australian Financial Services License No: 403684. Level 9, 190 St. Georges Tce, Perth, WA, Australia 6000 Tel + (618) 6141 6300 Fax + (618) 9226 1370. For general use by wholesale clients, as defined in the Corporations Act 2001. Any advice contained in this document has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on any advice in this document, GMP Australia recommends that you consider whether the advice is appropriate for your circumstances. GMP Australia recommends that you obtain and consider the relevant “Product Disclosure Statement” or other disclosure documents before making any decision about a product including whether to acquire or to continue to hold it. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. This report is current as at the date listed on page 1. Canada: GMP Securities L.P. is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and a participant of the TSX, TSX Venture and the Montreal Exchange. It is registered with all the provincial self-regulatory authorities of Canada. 145 King Street West, Suite 300 Toronto, Ontario M5H 1J8 Tel: (416) 367-8600 Fax: (416) 943-6134. United Kingdom: GMP Securities Europe LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. 5 Stratton Street, London W1S 4GA Tel 0044 20 7647 2800 Fax 0044 20 7647 2801. This information is issued for the benefit of persons who qualify as eligible counterparties or professional clients and should be made available only to such persons and is exempt from the restriction on financial promotion in s21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 in reliance on provision in the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 particularly Article 19(5) for Investment Professionals and Article 49(2) for entities of prescribed net worth.

Other countries: circulation of this report may be restricted by laws and regulations in other countries and persons in receipt of this document must satisfy any relevant legal requirements in that country. © GMP. All rights reserved. Reproduction in whole or in part without permission is prohibited.


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