GOES-R Support to Future NWS Weather Applications Dr. Frank P. Kelly NWS Office of Science and...

GOES-R Support to Future NWS GOES-R Support to Future NWS Weather ApplicationsWeather Applications

Dr. Frank P. KellyNWS Office of Science and Technology

Third GOES-R Users Conference

May 12, 2004Broomfield, CO

NOAA’s National Weather ServiceNOAA’s National Weather Service

33rdrd GOES Users Conference, May 2004 GOES Users Conference, May 20042

Future Observing Systems Future Observing Systems Observing System Trends to Support Weather Observing System Trends to Support Weather

ApplicationsApplications

How Can GOES-R Contribute to Each of These Categories?

• Integrated Observing Systems

• Increasing Resolution (temporal, spatial, and spectral)

• Increasing # Parameters Observed

• Improving User End of the End-to-End Process

How Can GOES-R Contribute to Each of These Categories?

• Integrated Observing Systems

• Increasing Resolution (temporal, spatial, and spectral)

• Increasing # Parameters Observed

• Improving User End of the End-to-End Process


Integrated Observing SystemsIntegrated Observing Systems

• Improve temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution Improve temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution

• Obtain observations of new environmental elementsObtain observations of new environmental elements

• Integrate multi-purpose observing systems and networks Integrate multi-purpose observing systems and networks

within an extensible enterprise architecture (EA)within an extensible enterprise architecture (EA)

• Determine where GOES-R data can complement the current Determine where GOES-R data can complement the current

and planned systemsand planned systems

• Improve temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution Improve temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution

• Obtain observations of new environmental elementsObtain observations of new environmental elements

• Integrate multi-purpose observing systems and networks Integrate multi-purpose observing systems and networks

within an extensible enterprise architecture (EA)within an extensible enterprise architecture (EA)

• Determine where GOES-R data can complement the current Determine where GOES-R data can complement the current

and planned systemsand planned systems


Integrated Observing Integrated Observing Systems – ObjectivesSystems – Objectives

• Deliver required improvements in observational capabilitiesDeliver required improvements in observational capabilities

- - Focus improvements to do more with existing capabilitiesFocus improvements to do more with existing capabilities- Provide complete sets of weather & water data and applications when and where needed - Provide complete sets of weather & water data and applications when and where needed

- Leverage non-NOAA resource opportunities and partnerships - Leverage non-NOAA resource opportunities and partnerships • Build an effective “system-of-systems” infrastructureBuild an effective “system-of-systems” infrastructure

- Enhance performance, continuity and interoperability across NOAA- Enhance performance, continuity and interoperability across NOAA- - Bridge and coordinate research-to-operations across NOAABridge and coordinate research-to-operations across NOAA

• Establish efficient business processesEstablish efficient business processes

- Exercise seamless control and timely S&T infusion into operations- Exercise seamless control and timely S&T infusion into operations- - Balance investment strategy for near-term acquisition vs long-term R&DBalance investment strategy for near-term acquisition vs long-term R&D

• Deliver required improvements in observational capabilitiesDeliver required improvements in observational capabilities

- - Focus improvements to do more with existing capabilitiesFocus improvements to do more with existing capabilities- Provide complete sets of weather & water data and applications when and where needed - Provide complete sets of weather & water data and applications when and where needed

- Leverage non-NOAA resource opportunities and partnerships - Leverage non-NOAA resource opportunities and partnerships • Build an effective “system-of-systems” infrastructureBuild an effective “system-of-systems” infrastructure

- Enhance performance, continuity and interoperability across NOAA- Enhance performance, continuity and interoperability across NOAA- - Bridge and coordinate research-to-operations across NOAABridge and coordinate research-to-operations across NOAA

• Establish efficient business processesEstablish efficient business processes

- Exercise seamless control and timely S&T infusion into operations- Exercise seamless control and timely S&T infusion into operations- - Balance investment strategy for near-term acquisition vs long-term R&DBalance investment strategy for near-term acquisition vs long-term R&D


Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Increasing ResolutionIncreasing Resolution - Temporal- Temporal

• NWS Requirements NWS Requirements (from GOES Operational Requirements Documents)(from GOES Operational Requirements Documents)

- Imager Imager

• Threshold: CONUS every 5 min; full disk every 15 min Threshold: CONUS every 5 min; full disk every 15 min

• Goal: CONUS every 1 min; full disk every 15 minGoal: CONUS every 1 min; full disk every 15 min

- Sounder Sounder

• Threshold: 12000x12000 km every 60 minThreshold: 12000x12000 km every 60 min

• Goal: full disk every 60 minGoal: full disk every 60 min

• Alleviate the current full disk versus mesoscale conflictAlleviate the current full disk versus mesoscale conflict

• Better monitoring and detection of significant weather events Better monitoring and detection of significant weather events (continuous 5 min imagery)(continuous 5 min imagery)

- Hurricanes, thunderstorms- Hurricanes, thunderstorms

• NWS Requirements NWS Requirements (from GOES Operational Requirements Documents)(from GOES Operational Requirements Documents)

- Imager Imager

• Threshold: CONUS every 5 min; full disk every 15 min Threshold: CONUS every 5 min; full disk every 15 min

• Goal: CONUS every 1 min; full disk every 15 minGoal: CONUS every 1 min; full disk every 15 min

- Sounder Sounder

• Threshold: 12000x12000 km every 60 minThreshold: 12000x12000 km every 60 min

• Goal: full disk every 60 minGoal: full disk every 60 min

• Alleviate the current full disk versus mesoscale conflictAlleviate the current full disk versus mesoscale conflict

• Better monitoring and detection of significant weather events Better monitoring and detection of significant weather events (continuous 5 min imagery)(continuous 5 min imagery)

- Hurricanes, thunderstorms- Hurricanes, thunderstorms


Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Increasing ResolutionIncreasing Resolution - Temporal- Temporal

• For example, RSO is integral to NWS operations For example, RSO is integral to NWS operations

– – GOES-R capability available in normal operating modeGOES-R capability available in normal operating mode

• For example, RSO is integral to NWS operations For example, RSO is integral to NWS operations

– – GOES-R capability available in normal operating modeGOES-R capability available in normal operating mode

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Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Increasing ResolutionIncreasing Resolution - Spatial- Spatial

• NWS Requirements NWS Requirements

• Imager Imager

• Threshold: VIS – 0.5 km; IR – 2 km Threshold: VIS – 0.5 km; IR – 2 km

• Goal: VIS – 0.2 km; IR – 0.5 km Goal: VIS – 0.2 km; IR – 0.5 km

• Sounder Sounder

• Threshold: 10 kmThreshold: 10 km

• Goal: 2 kmGoal: 2 km

- Better monitoring and detection of significant weather Better monitoring and detection of significant weather events events

• Inside eye of hurricane, thunderstorm outflows, fog, fires, smoke, Inside eye of hurricane, thunderstorm outflows, fog, fires, smoke, turbulence, instability, winter stormsturbulence, instability, winter storms

• NWS Requirements NWS Requirements

• Imager Imager

• Threshold: VIS – 0.5 km; IR – 2 km Threshold: VIS – 0.5 km; IR – 2 km

• Goal: VIS – 0.2 km; IR – 0.5 km Goal: VIS – 0.2 km; IR – 0.5 km

• Sounder Sounder

• Threshold: 10 kmThreshold: 10 km

• Goal: 2 kmGoal: 2 km

- Better monitoring and detection of significant weather Better monitoring and detection of significant weather events events

• Inside eye of hurricane, thunderstorm outflows, fog, fires, smoke, Inside eye of hurricane, thunderstorm outflows, fog, fires, smoke, turbulence, instability, winter stormsturbulence, instability, winter storms


Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Increasing ResolutionIncreasing Resolution - Spatial- Spatial

• For example, monitor fires and smoke plumesFor example, monitor fires and smoke plumes

• Monitor fog/stratusMonitor fog/stratus

• Monitor hurricanesMonitor hurricanes

• For example, monitor fires and smoke plumesFor example, monitor fires and smoke plumes

• Monitor fog/stratusMonitor fog/stratus

• Monitor hurricanesMonitor hurricanes


Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Increasing ResolutionIncreasing Resolution - Spectral- Spectral

NWS RequirementsNWS Requirements

- Imager Imager

•Threshold: 8 channelsThreshold: 8 channels

•Goal: 19 channelsGoal: 19 channels

- Sounder Sounder

•Threshold: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: Threshold: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: ++10%10%

•Goal: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: Goal: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: ++10%10%

• Increased spectral resolution will Increased spectral resolution will allow discrimination among allow discrimination among different parametersdifferent parameters

• Better vertical resolution in profiles Better vertical resolution in profiles (0.5-2 km)(0.5-2 km)

NWS RequirementsNWS Requirements

- Imager Imager

•Threshold: 8 channelsThreshold: 8 channels

•Goal: 19 channelsGoal: 19 channels

- Sounder Sounder

•Threshold: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: Threshold: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: ++10%10%

•Goal: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: Goal: temp: 1K/1km; humidity: ++10%10%

• Increased spectral resolution will Increased spectral resolution will allow discrimination among allow discrimination among different parametersdifferent parameters

• Better vertical resolution in profiles Better vertical resolution in profiles (0.5-2 km)(0.5-2 km)


Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Parameters ObservedParameters Observed

• GOES-R can measure increased number of parameters GOES-R can measure increased number of parameters

- Lightning (land and ocean), solar (energetic particles, auroral - Lightning (land and ocean), solar (energetic particles, auroral

boundary, neutral density profile, etc), cloud characteristics (particle boundary, neutral density profile, etc), cloud characteristics (particle

size distribution, phase, etc)size distribution, phase, etc)

• GOES-R can better measure key parametersGOES-R can better measure key parameters

- Fog, winds, stability, SST, ozone, aerosols, profiles, soil moisture, - Fog, winds, stability, SST, ozone, aerosols, profiles, soil moisture,

vegetative type/greenness, etcvegetative type/greenness, etc

• GOES-R can measure increased number of parameters GOES-R can measure increased number of parameters

- Lightning (land and ocean), solar (energetic particles, auroral - Lightning (land and ocean), solar (energetic particles, auroral

boundary, neutral density profile, etc), cloud characteristics (particle boundary, neutral density profile, etc), cloud characteristics (particle

size distribution, phase, etc)size distribution, phase, etc)

• GOES-R can better measure key parametersGOES-R can better measure key parameters

- Fog, winds, stability, SST, ozone, aerosols, profiles, soil moisture, - Fog, winds, stability, SST, ozone, aerosols, profiles, soil moisture,

vegetative type/greenness, etcvegetative type/greenness, etc


Integrated Observing Systems Integrated Observing Systems Parameters ObservedParameters Observed

• Higher resolution SST, Higher resolution SST, vegetation, cloud phasevegetation, cloud phase

• New services – ozone New services – ozone forecastsforecasts

• Higher resolution SST, Higher resolution SST, vegetation, cloud phasevegetation, cloud phase

• New services – ozone New services – ozone forecastsforecasts


Improving User End of the End-to-Improving User End of the End-to-End Process End Process

Need to develop strategies for:Need to develop strategies for:

• DisseminationDissemination

• Display/ApplicationDisplay/Application

• AssimilationAssimilation

• TrainingTraining

Need to develop strategies for:Need to develop strategies for:

• DisseminationDissemination

• Display/ApplicationDisplay/Application

• AssimilationAssimilation

• TrainingTraining


Strategy to Improve Dissemination Strategy to Improve Dissemination

• Increase in data volumes would overload current bandwidthIncrease in data volumes would overload current bandwidth

• What is the concept of operations?What is the concept of operations?

- Central production of images/products (current paradigm)- Central production of images/products (current paradigm)

- Delivery of “raw” data to WFOs/RFCs and produce images/products - Delivery of “raw” data to WFOs/RFCs and produce images/products locallylocally

• Algorithms could be centrally managedAlgorithms could be centrally managed

• StrategyStrategy

- Coordination and collaboration among NWS and NESDIS is Coordination and collaboration among NWS and NESDIS is necessary to ensure a cost effective solution is chosennecessary to ensure a cost effective solution is chosen

- Form Integrated Work Team to deal with dissemination issuesForm Integrated Work Team to deal with dissemination issues

• Increase in data volumes would overload current bandwidthIncrease in data volumes would overload current bandwidth

• What is the concept of operations?What is the concept of operations?

- Central production of images/products (current paradigm)- Central production of images/products (current paradigm)

- Delivery of “raw” data to WFOs/RFCs and produce images/products - Delivery of “raw” data to WFOs/RFCs and produce images/products locallylocally

• Algorithms could be centrally managedAlgorithms could be centrally managed


- Coordination and collaboration among NWS and NESDIS is Coordination and collaboration among NWS and NESDIS is necessary to ensure a cost effective solution is chosennecessary to ensure a cost effective solution is chosen

- Form Integrated Work Team to deal with dissemination issuesForm Integrated Work Team to deal with dissemination issues


Strategy to Improve Strategy to Improve Display/ApplicationsDisplay/Applications

• AWIPS is the NWS vehicle for display and interaction with AWIPS is the NWS vehicle for display and interaction with satellite datasatellite data

• Current capabilities Current capabilities • Imagery is goodImagery is good

• Others need workOthers need work- For example, profiles and winds are not easy to load and/or manipulateFor example, profiles and winds are not easy to load and/or manipulate


- Collaboration among NESDIS, OAR (FSL), and NWS to Collaboration among NESDIS, OAR (FSL), and NWS to improve display/applications capabilitiesimprove display/applications capabilities

• Inclusion of satellite data in digital forecast processInclusion of satellite data in digital forecast process

• Tailored products to aid the digital forecast paradigmTailored products to aid the digital forecast paradigm

- - Form Integrated Work Team to deal with data Form Integrated Work Team to deal with data display/applications issuesdisplay/applications issues

• AWIPS is the NWS vehicle for display and interaction with AWIPS is the NWS vehicle for display and interaction with satellite datasatellite data

• Current capabilities Current capabilities • Imagery is goodImagery is good

• Others need workOthers need work- For example, profiles and winds are not easy to load and/or manipulateFor example, profiles and winds are not easy to load and/or manipulate


- Collaboration among NESDIS, OAR (FSL), and NWS to Collaboration among NESDIS, OAR (FSL), and NWS to improve display/applications capabilitiesimprove display/applications capabilities

• Inclusion of satellite data in digital forecast processInclusion of satellite data in digital forecast process

• Tailored products to aid the digital forecast paradigmTailored products to aid the digital forecast paradigm

- - Form Integrated Work Team to deal with data Form Integrated Work Team to deal with data display/applications issuesdisplay/applications issues


Strategy to Improve AssimilationStrategy to Improve Assimilation

• Needed in the new digital forecast paradigmNeeded in the new digital forecast paradigm

- Development of Analysis of Record- Development of Analysis of Record

• Satellite data to fill in gaps in existing observing systemsSatellite data to fill in gaps in existing observing systems

• Used to verify digital forecastsUsed to verify digital forecasts

• Used in digital forecast processUsed in digital forecast process

- Short term forecasting- Short term forecasting

• Tools needed to blend satellite data trends into digital forecastTools needed to blend satellite data trends into digital forecast

• StrategyStrategy- Collaboration among NESDIS and NCEP to ensure optimal use of Collaboration among NESDIS and NCEP to ensure optimal use of

new datanew data

• Incorporate this into the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationIncorporate this into the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

• Needed in the new digital forecast paradigmNeeded in the new digital forecast paradigm

- Development of Analysis of Record- Development of Analysis of Record

• Satellite data to fill in gaps in existing observing systemsSatellite data to fill in gaps in existing observing systems

• Used to verify digital forecastsUsed to verify digital forecasts

• Used in digital forecast processUsed in digital forecast process

- Short term forecasting- Short term forecasting

• Tools needed to blend satellite data trends into digital forecastTools needed to blend satellite data trends into digital forecast

• StrategyStrategy- Collaboration among NESDIS and NCEP to ensure optimal use of Collaboration among NESDIS and NCEP to ensure optimal use of

new datanew data

• Incorporate this into the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationIncorporate this into the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation


Strategy to Improve TrainingStrategy to Improve Training

• Many new products unfamiliar to forecastersMany new products unfamiliar to forecasters

• Application of existing and new products in new waysApplication of existing and new products in new ways

- Blending into short-term digital forecastsBlending into short-term digital forecasts

- Verification of digital servicesVerification of digital services


- Include training resources in overall GOES-R budgetInclude training resources in overall GOES-R budget

- Develop training material for blended learningDevelop training material for blended learning

• Distance learningDistance learning

• Residence workshopsResidence workshops

• TeletrainingTeletraining

• Many new products unfamiliar to forecastersMany new products unfamiliar to forecasters

• Application of existing and new products in new waysApplication of existing and new products in new ways

- Blending into short-term digital forecastsBlending into short-term digital forecasts

- Verification of digital servicesVerification of digital services


- Include training resources in overall GOES-R budgetInclude training resources in overall GOES-R budget

- Develop training material for blended learningDevelop training material for blended learning

• Distance learningDistance learning

• Residence workshopsResidence workshops

• TeletrainingTeletraining


SummarySummaryGOES-R will provide service enhancementsGOES-R will provide service enhancements

• Improved support to core missionsImproved support to core missions- Protection of life and property- Protection of life and property- Enhance the National Economy- Enhance the National Economy

• New services supportedNew services supported- Air quality- Air quality- Homeland SecurityHomeland Security- Coast, estuaries, oceansCoast, estuaries, oceans

GoalsGoals• Integrate GOES-R in the Integrated Observing SystemIntegrate GOES-R in the Integrated Observing System

- Take advantage of increased resolution and parameters observedTake advantage of increased resolution and parameters observed

• Improve the End-to-End ProcessImprove the End-to-End Process- Implement new satellite data/products more quickly after launchImplement new satellite data/products more quickly after launch- Size end-to-end system processing and computing resources to Size end-to-end system processing and computing resources to

accommodate data volume increaseaccommodate data volume increase

GOES-R will provide service enhancementsGOES-R will provide service enhancements• Improved support to core missionsImproved support to core missions

- Protection of life and property- Protection of life and property- Enhance the National Economy- Enhance the National Economy

• New services supportedNew services supported- Air quality- Air quality- Homeland SecurityHomeland Security- Coast, estuaries, oceansCoast, estuaries, oceans

GoalsGoals• Integrate GOES-R in the Integrated Observing SystemIntegrate GOES-R in the Integrated Observing System

- Take advantage of increased resolution and parameters observedTake advantage of increased resolution and parameters observed

• Improve the End-to-End ProcessImprove the End-to-End Process- Implement new satellite data/products more quickly after launchImplement new satellite data/products more quickly after launch- Size end-to-end system processing and computing resources to Size end-to-end system processing and computing resources to

accommodate data volume increaseaccommodate data volume increase

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