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Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2009 Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2009
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Page 1: Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2009€¦ · Goldman Sachs Global Industrials Conference November 2009 Goldman Sachs. Global Industrials Conference. ... In press

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Goldman SachsGlobal Industrials Conference

November 2009

Goldman SachsGlobal Industrials Conference

November 2009

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Forward-Looking DisclosureForward-Looking Disclosure

This information and other statements by the company contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act with respect to, among other items: projections and estimates of earnings, revenues, cost-savings, expenses, or other financial items; statements of management’s plans, strategies and objectives for future operation, and management’s expectations as to future performance and operations and the time by which objectives will be achieved; statements concerning proposed new products and services; and statements regarding future economic, industry or market conditions or performance. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “project,” “estimate,” “preliminary” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statement. If the company does update any forward-looking statement, no inference should be drawn that the company will make additional updates with respect to that statement or any other forward-looking statements.

Forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual performance or results could differ materially from that anticipated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements include, among others; (i) the company’s success in implementing its financial and operational initiatives; (ii) changes in domestic or international economic or business conditions, including those affecting the rail industry (such as the impact of industry competition, conditions, performance and consolidation); (iii) legislative or regulatory changes; (iv) the inherent business risks associated with safety and security; and (v) the outcome of claims and litigation involving or affecting the company.

Other important assumptions and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward- looking statements are specified in the company’s SEC reports, accessible on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov and the company’s website at www.csx.com.

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Current CSX environment . . .Current CSX environment . . .

Worst economic recession in past half century abating— Volumes continue to moderate going into the back half of the fourth quarter

Company emerging from recession stronger— Earning power and margins have been resilient in current environment

Value of rail transportation supports long-term pricing— Expect core price increases above rail inflation for 2010 and beyond

Industry fundamentals are strong long-term— Growing population, congested highways, environmentalism favors railroads

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Economic environment continues to moderateEconomic environment continues to moderate

Year-Over-Year Volume Change

(53%)

(23%)

(13%)(7%)

(41%)

(22%)(14%)

(21%)(28%)

(17%)(10%)

(18%)(12%) (16%)

(1%)

(23%)

Automotive Merchandise Intermodal Coal

First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter-to-Date

Percent of Total Volume

3%Q1

5%Q4

36%Q1

35%Q4

31%Q1

35%Q4

30%Q1

25%Q4

Note: Fourth quarter year-over-year change in volume reflects data through week 43

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Utility stock piles likely remain high well into 2010Utility stock piles likely remain high well into 2010

Eastern Power SectorTons in Millions

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Coal Consumption Coal Inventory Typical Inventory LevelSource: Coal consumption and inventory numbers from PIRA Energy Group

67 daysof inventory

67 days67 daysof inventoryof inventory

76 daysof inventory

76 days76 daysof inventoryof inventory

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

62 daysof inventory

62 days62 daysof inventoryof inventory

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Core earning power resilient during recessionCore earning power resilient during recession

Comparable Operating Margin and Volume

20.8%22.0%

24.2%25.3%

5,548 5,355 5,2244,295

2006 2007 2008 2009

Comparable Operating Income and Volume

$1,494 $1,636

$2,076$1,702

5,548 5,355 5,2244,295

2006 2007 2008 2009

Op. Income (millions) Volume (000) Operating Margin Volume (000)

Note: See GAAP Reconciliation

Results Through First Three Quarters

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2009 Quarterly Cost StructureYear-Over-Year Variance

(26%)

(35%)(30%)

(17%)

(27%)(24%)

First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter

2009 Quarterly Cost StructureYear-Over-Year Variance

(11%)(17%) (16%)

(6%)

(14%) (16%)

(8%)

(16%) (16%)

First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter

Sustained cost focus yields sequential improvementSustained cost focus yields sequential improvement

Adjusted Variable Costs Fixed Costs Adjusted Total CostsVolume

Note: Adjusted variable and total costs have been normalized for fuel prices; lighter shaded bars reflect unadjusted costs

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Core pricing has remained firm in this environmentCore pricing has remained firm in this environment

Note: “Same Store Sales” price increases exclude impacts from fuel surcharge and mix

Year-Over-Year Change

6.5% 6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.5% 6.5% 6.6% 6.3%

8.0%10.5%

14.5%18.3%

21.2%

14.0%

0.2%

(8.7%)(5.4%)

Q32007

Q42007

Q12008

Q22008

Q32008

Q42008

Q12009

Q22009

Q32009

Same Store Sales Price Increase Total Revenue per Unit

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EvolvingMarketplace

EvolvingEvolvingMarketplaceMarketplace

PricingOpportunity

PricingPricingOpportunityOpportunity

StrongServiceStrongStrongServiceService +

Strong service and market environment driving priceStrong service and market environment driving price

“Same Store Sales”Price Increase

76%79% 79%

82%

2006 2007 2008 2009

On-TimeOriginations

6.6% 6.7% 6.5% 6.5%

2006 2007 2008 2009

Highway congestion increasing

Supply chains are expanding

Rail service improving

Focus on “green” intensifying

Extreme regulatory change unlikely

Rail IndustryAdvantages

YTD

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Pre-deregulation, rail pricingkept pace with inflation

During the first 23 years after the passageDuring the first 23 years after the passageof the Staggers Act, rail pricing declined by 50%of the Staggers Act, rail pricing declined by 50%

Inflation-Adjusted PricingIndexed: 1981 = $100

$100

$51

1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008

Inflation-plus price increases expected long-termInflation-plus price increases expected long-term

Source: Association of American Railroads

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Inflation-plus pricing supports other key industriesInflation-plus pricing supports other key industries

Compound Annual Rate IncreasesBetween 1990 and 2008

1.2%

2.3%

4.8%

7.5%

Rail Electricity Grain Chemical

Source: UBS Investment Research

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Long-term fundamentals drive Rail RenaissanceLong-term fundamentals drive Rail Renaissance

Over time, more people . . .

Over time, Over time, more people . . .more people . . .

. . . will consumemore things . . .

. . . will consume. . . will consumemore things . . .more things . . .

. . . and those things need to be moved

. . . and those things . . . and those things need to be movedneed to be moved

296

311

326

342

2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. Populationin Millions

$3.1 $3.2

$3.6

$4.2

2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. Consumptionof Goods in Trillions

4.9

5.4

6.0

6.6

2005 2010 2015 2020

U.S. TransportationDemand in Trillion Ton-miles

Sources: Global Insight and American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials

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Competitive advantages driving market share shiftCompetitive advantages driving market share shift

Surface Transportation Tonnage Market Share

Sources: Transearch and USDOT FHWA Freight Analysis Framework

Barge 8%Rail 15%

Truck 77%

Rail Industry Advantages

Highway congestion increasing

Supply chains are expanding

Rail service is improving

Focus on “green” intensifying

Extreme regulatory change unlikely

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CSX’s network leverages long-term fundamentalsCSX’s network leverages long-term fundamentals

Serves all major markets in the eastern United States— Markets account for over 65% of

population and 75% of consumption

Links all major industry and natural resource centers— Strong presence in coal, aggregates,

phosphates support key industries

Provides international access through all major ports— Directly serves Atlantic and Gulf

ports; access to Pacific with alliances

Florida

Midwest

Gulf Coast

PiedmontAtlantic

Northeast

Mega-regionsServed by CSX

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Strengthening position for long-term value creationStrengthening position for long-term value creation

CSX emerging from recession as a stronger company— Earning power and margins have been resilient in current environment

Pricing the value of rail transportation is long-term focus— Expect core price increases above rail inflation for 2010 and beyond

Rail renaissance fundamentals remain intact long-term— Organic growth at attractive rates supports shareholder value creation

Relentless pursuit of excellenceRelentless pursuit of excellence

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Goldman SachsGlobal Industrials Conference

November 2009

Goldman SachsGlobal Industrials Conference

November 2009

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AppendixAppendix

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GAAP Reconciliation DisclosureGAAP Reconciliation Disclosure

CSX reports its financial results in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). However, management believes that certain non-GAAP financial measures used to manage the company’s business that fall within the meaning of Regulation G (Disclosure of Non-GAAP Financial Measures) by the SEC may provide users of the financial information with additional meaningful comparisons to prior reported results.

In press releases and presentation slides for stock analysts, CSX has provided financial information adjusted for certain items, which are non-GAAP financial measures. The company’s management evaluates its business and makes certain operating decisions (e.g., budgeting, forecasting, employee compensation, asset management and resource allocation) using these adjusted numbers.

Likewise, this information facilitates comparisons to financial results that are directly associated with ongoing business operations as well as provides comparable historical information. Lastly, earnings forecasts prepared by stock analysts and other third parties generally exclude the effects of items that are difficult to predict or measure in advance and are not directly related to CSX’s ongoing operations. A reconciliation between GAAP and the non-GAAP measure is provided. These non-GAAP measures should not be considered a substitute for GAAP measures.

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GAAP ReconciliationGAAP Reconciliation

Results Through First Three Quarters

Dollars in millions 2006 2007 2008 2009

Operating IncomeGain on Insurance Recoveries

$ 1,635(141)

$ 1,655(19)

$ 2,076-

$ 1,702-

Comparable Operating Income $ 1,494 $ 1,636 $ 2,076 $ 1,702

Operating MarginGain on Insurance Recoveries

22.8%(2.0%)

22.2%(0.2%)

24.2%-

25.3%-

Comparable Operating Margin 20.8% 22.0% 24.2% 25.3%

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Goldman SachsGlobal Industrials Conference

November 2009

Goldman SachsGlobal Industrials Conference

November 2009


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