Good Introductory Text: Natural Disasters, Patrick Abbott, McGraw-Hill

Natural Disasters

M=7.8 Nepal Earthquake, April 25 2015

Western U.S. Drought: most severe in California on record

Diminishing Snowpack – Sierra Nevada

SW U.S. Dust Storms & Wildfires2012-2015

January 2014 North American Cold Wave blame the Polar Vortex??

1. Sudden stratospheric warming2. Baroclinic Instability of the tropospheric jet stream

• affected 200 Million in N. America• Jan 6-8: 70 U.S. record low temperatures

Normal

Jan 7 2014Jan 6 2014 Jet Stream Jan. 1-15 Temp. Anomalies

Hurricane SandyOctober 27-30, 2012

Typhoon Haiyan; November 2-11, 2013

U.S. Tornado Outbreaks

Rare “twin” tornadoes: Pilger Nebraska, June 16, 2014

Mid-Atlantic Derecho, June 29, 2012

Russian MeteorFebruary 15, 2013

Tohoku, Japan Earthquake & TsunamiMarch 11, 2011

Terminology

• Natural disaster - an event in Nature claiming lives or the fruits of human labor on a large (extreme) scale

• Natural hazard - same classes of events, with the potential to be disasters

Fundamental Questions

• Natural disasters: when, where, why?

• Are they predictable?

• Are they preventable?

• How should I plan/respond?

Examples of Large Natural Disasters

Event Human Fatalities

1931 Yangtze flood 1,000,000

1938 Hwang-Ho flood 1,000,000

1970, 1991 Bangladesh typhoons 540,000

2004 Sumatra tsunami 230,000

2005 Hurricane Katrina 1,300

2010 Haiti earthquake 200,000

2011 Fukushima tsunami 19,500

2012 Hurricane Sandy 87

2013 Typhoon Haiyan 6400

2015 Nepal earthquake 8500

World-wide Fatalities from Natural Disasters (annual average, 1910-2010)

Disaster Fatalities

Floods (rivers) 30,000*Earthquakes 17,000*Tropical storms 10,000Tsunamis 3,000*Landslides & Avalanches 1,000Volcanoes 800Bush Fires 1,000Tornadoes, U.S. 75 Lightning, U.S. 400 * mostly in few, catastrophic events

not included: drought; heat

Insured Property Losses, U.S. [Adjusted to 2014$]

Event Loss

1992 Hurricane Andrew $44B

1996 Northridge eqk. $45B

2003 Hurricane Isabel $25B 2005 Hurricane Katrina $128B

2012 Hurricane Sandy $60B

hypothetical M>8.0 earthquake downtown Los Angeles or San Francisco est. $900B

• Natural disaster prevention is usually not possible, but fatalities are preventable (almost always).

• Mitigation of natural disasters is possible, depending on:• scientific understanding = predictive ability• engineering action = infrastructure design• societal organization = awareness & emergency response

• Developing nations suffer most fatalities, from lack of mitigation (ex: Indian Ocean tsunami; Haiti & Nepal earthquakes)

• Developed nations suffer most financial loss, because of infrastructure damage (ex: Hurricanes Katrina & Sandy; Fukushima earthquake & tsunami)

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