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Goodricke Group Limited
Prakash Narayan Sharma
LOHIA SECURITIES LTD.
Goodricke Group Limited
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LOHIA SECURITIES LTD.
Dear Patrons...
The tea industry occupies a place of considerable importance in the Indian economy. The Vintage
172 year old Indian tea Industry is the largest tea producer in the world accounting for 28% of
the global production. Though India is the largest tea producer in the world, it is third in terms of
exports due to the widespread domestic consumption. In fact, it is the largest consumer of tea
with a 23% share of the total tea demand in the world. Tea contributes about Rs.7000 Crore per
annum to India’s GNP with annual export earnings of Rs.2000 Crore. It employs around 1.26
million people at tea plantations and 2 million people indirectly.
Tea can be broadly divided into two types--black tea and green tea, and India mainly produces
black tea as domestic consumers prefer that. There are mainly two methods of manufacturing
black tea--the Crush Tear & Curl (CTC) process and the orthodox process. Unlike other countries,
India produces both CTC and Orthodox tea, in addition to green tea. Tea production in India is
usually in the range of 928-982 million kgs. Assam and West Bengal (known in industry parlance
as North Indian teas) account for the largest chunk of production in India at around 53% and
20% of total tea production respectively. In the south, it is mainly produced in Tamil Nadu and
Kerala.
India exports around 20% of its total tea production, of which, around 43% is exported to Russian
and CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) countries. India also exports to European
countries, USA, Japan, West Asia and Asia Pacific region.
In India, tea is sold through auction centres and private dealings. Out of the approximate annual
domestic consumption of around 800 million kgs, 40-45% is packaged and sold, while the rest is
sold as loose tea.
The domestic and global scenario looks positive for the Indian Tea industry. The global mismatch
in demand-supply is expected to continue into CY2011. There is a noticeable change in the
climatic conditions worldwide with erratic rainfall distribution and unpredictable precipitation
levels due to global warming. This will play an important role in tea cultivation going forward. If
this scenario continues it will tantamount to increase revenues for the tea industry in terms of
higher tea prices. In India, we believe tea prices are expected to remain firm as supply would not
improve in the future due to the negligible area addition under tea cultivation and lengthy
gestation period of a tea plant (approximately 5 years). The domestic tea consumption is
increasing at a CAGR of 2% every year while worldwide demand is expected to remain at higher
levels. Goodricke Group Limited is best placed to benefit from this mismatch due to its track
record of producing superior quality tea and its regular initiatives to improve yield. The
opportunity before it lies in the fact that the market in the medium term will be demand led and
despite the pipeline shortage in India, poorer teas would be discounted. Keeping in view its track
record of producing quality tea, we are quite optimistic about this company’s future.
Regards,
Lohia Research
Goodricke Group Limited
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LOHIA SECURITIES LTD.
Particulars Page No.
Company: Goodricke Group Limited 4-13
Contents:
--Company Profile 5-6
--Investment Rationale 7-8
--Risk & Concern 8-9
--Results Update 10
--Financial Highlights 11-12
--Outlook & Valuation 13
Company Office Branches 14
Research Team 14
Disclaimer 14
Goodricke Group Limited
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LOHIA SECURITIES LTD.
Company Profile…
MARKET DATA
Bloomberg Code GDRK:IN
Reuters Code GDRC.BO
Price (`) 127
Target Price (`) 155
Time (in Months) 12
Dividend Yield (%) 3.94
52 Week High/ Low(`) 175/121
Equity Capital(` Mn) 216
Face Value (`) 10
Market Cap (` Mn) 2,744
Avg. Vol.NSE(3M) 9,935
Beta 0.74
SHARE-HOLDING PATTERN (%)
Promoters 74%
FII 0%
DII 1.44%
Others 24.56%
As on 30/06/2011
RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (%)
Stock Sensex Stock over
Sensex
3 Month -9% -11% 2%
6 Month -10% -13% 3%
12 Month -14% -18% 4%
Company Background Goodricke Group is one of the major tea
plantation companies in India.
It was incorporated in 1977 as a public
limited company.
The Goodricke Group at present has 17
tea gardens. Of these, 12 estates are in the
district of Jalpaiguri, 3 in Darjeeling in
West Bengal and 2 in Darrang district of
Assam.
It operates in two different segments,
namely, bulk tea & instant tea.
The company grows, cultivates,
manufactures, treats, blends, processes,
buys, sells and deals in tea in various
forms.
Investment Rationale Demand-Supply mismatch in tea industry
Good export demand expected
High yield tea estates
Debt free company
Acquisitions & Expansion plans
Increasing focus on packet and instant tea
Government/Tea Authority Initiatives
Key Risk to Investment Uneven weather conditions
Labour intensive industry
Competition from other tea producing
countries
Unorganized Players
Foreign exchange fluctuations
Financial Highlights CY10 CY11E CY12E
Revenue (`Mn) 3,993 4,500 5,137
Revenue growth (%) 7% 13% 14%
EBDITA (`Mn) 741 909 1,097
EBIT (`Mn) 646 809 985
Net Profit (`Mn) 450 571 699
EPS (`) 20.83 26.44 32.35
EPS growth (%) 7% 27% 22%
P/E (x)* 6.10 4.80 3.93
P/BV (x)* 1.91 1.46 1.12
ROE (%) 35.40% 34.49% 32.28% * P/E, P/BV computed taking CMP of `127 as on 28/09/2011.
28th
September 2011
Goodricke Group Limited
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Company Profile…
Goodricke Group, one of the major tea plantation companies in India, was incorporated in West
Bengal on 14th June 1977 as a Public Limited Company under the provisions of the Companies Act 1956
(Act). The company grows, cultivates, manufactures, treats, blends, processes, buys, sells and deals in
tea in various forms.
The Goodricke Group at present has 17 tea gardens. Of these, 12 estates are in the district of
Jalpaiguri, 3 in Darjeeling in West Bengal and 2 in Darrang district of Assam. All the 17 existing tea
gardens of Goodricke Group were once owned by eight Sterling Tea Companies. They had established
these tea gardens progressively in late 1800’s and were carrying on business in tea in India. The
sterling companies are: Assam-Dooars Tea, Chulsa Tea, Hope Tea, Leesh River Tea, Lebong Tea,
Danguajhar Tea, British Darjeeling Tea and Meenglas Tea. Pursuant to Section 29(2)(a) of the Foreign
Exchange Regulation Act, 1973, the Reserve Bank of India agreed to grant permission to carry on
business to the Sterling companies subject to takeover of the Gardens by an Indian Company to be
formed. Accordingly based on schemes of merger and with the sanction of Calcutta High Court, the 8
Sterling Companies were amalgamated with Goodricke Group with effect from 1st January 1978.
Goodricke annually produces 30 Mn Kgs of tea.
Products Bulk Teas: CTC and Orthodox teas from the Dooars, Darjeeling and Assam gardens are sold in
bulk form packed in paper sacks, jute bags or tea chests. The quality and popularity of teas from
the Group are reflected in the prices realized which rank amongst the top in the Industry.
The marketing channels used for bulk teas include the Public auction System, private and
consignment sales, Exports and Direct Sales either in original or blended form. Bulk tea forms
99% of Goodricke’s overall operations.
Instant Tea: The instant tea segment contributes about 1-2% to Goodricke’s overall sales &
volume mix and focuses primarily on export market. The Goodricke Group developed the
concept of instant tea from green leaf at its research and development centre for 4 years before
setting up the world’s first integrated Instant Tea Plant at Aibheel Tea Garden in the Dooars.
This is a state of the art, computerised automated plant and its establishment in 1994 as an
Export Oriented Unit marks a major development in the Indian Tea Industry. The company
holds patent for hot water soluble and cold water soluble instant teas. However, Goodricke’s
cost of production is relatively higher compared to other international suppliers.
Brands The company’s diversified brands are:
Darjeeling Teas Multi Origin Blends
Badamtam Chestlet Barnesbeg Organic Green tea
Badamtam Sencha Green Tea Caddy Goodricke Chai CTC Dust
Castleton Premium Goodricke Chai CTC Leaf
Darjeeling Three-in-One Metal Caddy Goodricke Fine Estate Tea Bags
Margaret’s Hope Caddy Goodricke Perfect
Premium Darjeeling Carton Goodricke premium CTC Leaf
Seasons Three-in One Pinewood Chestlet Goodricke Premium CTC Leaf Carton
Special Darjeeling Roasted Jar Zabardast CTC Leaf
Thurbo Carton Zabardast CTC Dust
Goodricke Group Limited
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Subsidiaries
Stewart Holl (India) Limited,
Amgoorie India Limited,
Koomber Properties and Leasing Company Private Limited,
Lawrie Plantation Services
Borbam Investments Limited,
Koomber Tea Company private Limited,
Lebong Investments Private Limited
Credit Rating
Date Instrument Type Rating Agency Rating Amount
16-Feb-2011 Short-term Bank
Facilities CARE PR3 `60.48Cr
16-Feb-2011 Long-term Bank
Facilities CARE BBB- `360.07Cr
Management
Name Designation
Mr. P.J.Field Chairman
Mr. A.N.Singh Managing Director & CEO
Mr. A.K.Mathur Director
Dr. S.Kaul Director
Mr. K.Sinha Director
Mr. P.K.Sen Director
Mr. D.P.Chakravarti Vice-President & Company Secretary
Mr. A.Sengupta Chief Accountant & Chief Financial Officer
Major Shareholders
Shareholder % of Outstanding
Koomber Properties Leasing Company Ltd. 3.12%
Satish Kumar Bhasin 2.10%
SBIFM-Magnum Sector Funds Umbrella-Emerging 1.42%
Goodricke Group Limited
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Investment Rationale…
Demand-Supply mismatch in tea industry: Indian tea production has stagnated over the past five
years and has been range bound between 928 million kgs and 982 million kgs, at the same time
domestic consumption has increased from 780 million kgs in CY2005 to 865 million kgs in CY2010. The
domestic tea consumption is increasing at a CAGR of approximately 2%. The demand and supply gap
will widen in the coming years as production levels have not increased due to limited scope of
increasing acreage under cultivation and insufficient investment in replenishing low yielding plants.
Tea Statistics (India)
Figures in Million Kg
Description 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Production 878 893 928 982 956 981 979 966
Imports 10 31 16 25 15 20 20 20
Exports 174 198 192 204 190 200 190 193
Consumption 720 755 780 795 810 830 850 865
Surplus/ Shortage
(6) (29) (28) 8 (29) (29) (41) (72)
Source: Lohia Research
Good export demand expected: The export demand for Indian teas is expected to be robust this year.
The Kenyan crops are almost down by 20 Mn and production in Sri Lanka has also been hampered due
to dry weather conditions over there. So there will be a shortage of tea in the international market. We
are hopeful that this year Indian exports will pickup. Increase in exports to premium markets in Europe
and other regions will enable Goodricke to enhance its margins.
High yield tea estates: The Goodricke Group at present has 17 tea gardens. Of these, 12 estates are in
the district of Jalpaiguri, 3 in Darjeeling in West Bengal and 2 in Darrang district of Assam. Goodricke’s
tea estates follow up‐to‐date field practices, to improve upon the quality standards. The age profile of
tea bushes have improved as a result of the ongoing uprooting & replanting of old bushes. The
company’s commitment to provide quality tea to its customers is expected to add significantly to the
bottomline of the company.
Debt free company: In CY10, Goodricke has reduced its debts to nil from Rs. 92.56 Mn in CY09. This
augurs well for the company in the present high interest rate regime where margins of most of the
companies are dented by high interest & financial charges. In future it is expected to have limited debt
exposure mainly in the form of working capital loan. In the event of these loans being raised, the
interest cost is not likely to pressurize the bottomline as the quantum of such loans are expected to be
small and Goodricke with its strong balance sheet will be able to raise them on favourable terms.
Acquisitions and expansion plans: Goodricke Group is scouting for acquisitions in the African region
which are known for their high yields and low costs. These acquisitions will allow the company to reap
benefits of increased volume growth and better margins going ahead. Overseas acquisitions provide a
hedge against the volatility in production that may result from operations in India alone due to weather
Goodricke Group Limited
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LOHIA SECURITIES LTD.
17%
26%
34%
23%
General Sales Breakup for Tea Industry
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Source: Company data
uncertainties and labour unrests. It is also open to acquiring more gardens in Assam. In the event of
such acquisitions, Goodricke plans to raise money mainly through rights issue. The company is also
looking to get into horticulture and agricultural products such as fruit juices, pineapple canning and
tomatoes. This would further enhance the bottomline of the company. The company also plans to
modernize 3 factories, enhance labour welfare and improve irrigation facilities in the coming fiscal.
Increasing focus on packet & instant tea: Goodricke Group on the back of rising tea prices have
increased its focus on its packet tea business. The company aims to increase its packet tea business
from 6 Mn kgs to 10 Mn kgs in the next 2 years. It has taken strong marketing initiatives in the form of:
a strong in-house marketing team vis-à-vis appointment of agents, entering into new geographical
areas such as UP, Bihar and Southern India, and, targeting new client segments such as institutional
sales and retail chains to promote its packet tea. The rising tea prices should increase the margins on
packet tea for Goodricke Group thus enhancing its bottomline. Goodricke’s sale of instant tea (including
iced tea) is around 300 tonnes including 200 tonnes in export market. Goodricke has a capacity to
produce 600 tonnes of instant tea annually and the company is looking to increase its sales in this
segment overseas moving beyond Japan and Europe. To achieve this, the company is looking to make
new launches like tea bags in the overseas market.
Government/Tea Authority Initiatives: Besides the Special Tea Fund, the Tea Board of India is also
taking active steps to arrest the declining popularity of tea against other beverages like coffee, malt and
soft drinks. For instance, the Indian Tea Board and the Indian Teas Association are promoting tea as a
health drink by highlighting its anti-oxidant properties. It has also appointed a well-known ad-agency
to handle its promotional campaigns. This would indirectly benefit tea companies in India.
Risk and concern
Uneven weather conditions: Tea cultivation requires optimum levels of humidity and rain. Extreme
weather conditions such as drought like situation or
heavy rains cause tea yield to decline sharply. A dry
weather may cause irreparable loss to production as
irrigation is seldom used in the industry. On the other
hand, heavy rains may wash away fertilizers and
other nutrients from the top soil. With frequent
occurrences of extreme weather conditions globally,
tea industry shall remain vulnerable to vagaries of
nature.
It has been monitored in the past that Q4 number for
all tea companies end up with a loss because
production halts from 15th December and new
season production starts from the third week of March, so there is no revenue coming in but the
companies have to incur both fixed costs as well as revenue costs in the last quarter. Also, total tax
provisions are factored in the last quarter because of the seasonality in business.
Labour intensive industry: The industry is highly labour intensive and is subject to stringent labour
laws. Comparatively high labour costs, high social cost over most other tea producing countries, high
Goodricke Group Limited
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infrastructure costs and increasing energy and other input costs remain the major problems for the
Indian Tea Industry.
Competition from other tea producing countries: The major competitive countries in tea in the
world are Sri Lanka, Kenya, China and Indonesia. China is the major producer of green tea while Sri
Lanka and Indonesia are producing mainly orthodox varieties of tea. Kenya is basically a CTC tea
producing country. While India is facing competition from Sri Lanka and Indonesia with regard to
export of orthodox teas and from China with regard to green tea export, it is facing competition from
Kenya and from other African countries in exporting CTC teas. Because of absence of large domestic
base and due to comparatively small range of exportable items, Sri Lanka and Kenya have an edge over
India to offload their teas in any international markets. This is one of the reasons of higher volume of
export by Sri Lanka and Kenya compared to India. Another important point is that, U.K has substantial
interest in tea cultivation in Kenya. Most of the sterling companies, after Indianisation due to
implementation of FERA Act started tea cultivation in Kenya. So, it makes business sense for U.K. to buy
tea from Kenya and Kenya became the largest supplier of tea to U.K.
Source: Lohia Research
Unorganized Players: Domestic tea market is flooded with unorganized and regional players
competing directly with large established national players. The small regional players typically
dominate in local state level markets and primarily compete on pricing front. It becomes difficult for
large organize players to respond to localized marketing strategies adopted by these smaller players in
timely manner. However, Goodricke Group is a producer of quality teas only and under the recent
scenario of rising preference for quality tea, risk of competition of unorganized players is mitigated.
Foreign exchange fluctuations: Tea being an in important global commodity is subjected to exchange
rate fluctuations. Unusual currency movement may impact earnings as most companies in tea industry
are highly export reliant.
28%
23%10%
9%
5%
25%
World Tea Production
India China Kenya
Sri Lanka Indonesia Others
23%
16%
6%6%5%
44%
World Tea Consumption
India China Russia UK Japan Others
Goodricke Group Limited
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Results update (Standalone)…
Particulars (` Million) Q2CY11 Q2CY10 YoY(%) Q1CY11 QoQ(%)
Net Sales 754 679 11% 637 18%
Other Operating Income 11 13 -11% 19 -40%
Total Operational Income 765 692 11% 656 17%
Total Expenditure 697 606 15% 896 -22%
EBITDA 68 86 -21% -240 128%
EBITDA Margin (%) 9.01% 12.70%
-37.62%
Depreciation 26 21 24% 22 16%
EBIT 42 66 -36% -262 116%
EBIT Margin (%) 5.59% 9.64%
-41.10%
Other Income 0.70 3.40 -79% 2.60 -73%
Interest & Financial Charges 6 5 15% 0.20 2950%
PBT 37 64 -42% -260 114%
PBT Margin (%) 4.87% 9.36%
-40.73%
Provision for Taxation 0 0
0
Profit After Tax (PAT) 37 64 -42% -260 114%
Net Profit Margin (%) 4.87% 9.36%
-40.73%
Income from Operations increased by 11% to `765 Mn in Q2CY 11 as against `692 Mn in
Q2CY10. The increase in sales was due to increase in realization per Kg.
Employee expenses increased by 27% to `413 Mn in Q2CY11 as against `326 Mn in Q2CY10.
This was due to the increase in labour wages during the quarter.
Total expenditure increased by 15% during the quarter on YoY basis.
EBITDA Margin declined to 9.01% from 12.70% in Q2CY10. This is because increase in
expenditure was higher than increase in income.
Depreciation expense increased by 24% during the quarter.
EBIT of the company declined by 36% during the quarter.
Other income declined by 79% during the quarter.
PAT declined by 42% on YoY basis mainly due to lower EBITDA and higher depreciation cost.
Goodricke Group Limited
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Financial Highlights
Income Statement (Standalone) Particulars (` Mn) CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E
Net sales 3,718 3,993 4,500 5,137
Other Income 132 85 96 111
Increase/Decrease in Stock -26 -214 -214 -214
Raw Material Consumed 1,006 1,145 1,217 1,369
Power & Fuel Cost 246 296 334 370
Employee Cost 1,143 1,234 1,384 1,541
Other Manufacturing Expenses 336 356 401 453
General and Administration Expenses 40 45 49 51
Selling and Distribution Expenses 268 294 324 365
Miscellaneous Expenses 191 179 191 216
Total Expenditure 3,204 3,337 3,687 4,151
EBITDA 645 741 909 1,097
Depreciation 73 95 100 113
EBIT 572 646 809 985
Interest & Financial Charges 41 15 16 14
Profit Before Tax 531 631 793 971
Provision for Taxation 111 181 222 272
Profit after Tax 419 450 571 699 *Lohia research estimates
Balance Sheet (Standalone) Particulars (` Mn) CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E
Assets
Net Fixed Asset 686 813 968 1,106
Investments 0 0 323 698
Current Assets 1,380 1,680 1,771 1,950
Total Assets 2,066 2,493 3,062 3,753
Liabilities
Equity Share Capital 216 216 216 216
Reserves & Surplus 893 1,217 1,662 2,235
Secured Loans 93 0 0 0
Unsecured Loans 0 0 0 0
Current Liabilities & Provisions 856 1,046 1,170 1,288
Deferred Tax Liabilities 8 14 14 14
Total Liabilities 2,066 2,493 3,062 3,753 *Lohia research estimates
Goodricke Group Limited
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Cash Flow Statement
Particulars (` Mn) CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E
Cash Flow from Operating Activities
PAT 419 450 571 699
Add: Depreciation 73 95 100 113
Operating Profit before WC changes 493 545 671 811
Changes in Current Assets (excluding cash) 944 (213) (90) (168)
Changes in Current Liabilities (860) 196 124 118
Changes in WC 84 (17) 34 (50)
Net Cash flow from Operations 577 528 705 761
Cash Flow from Investment Activities
Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) (190) (231) (240) (250)
Increase in Investments (0) 0 (323) (375)
Net Cash flow from Investment Activities (190) (231) (563) (625)
Cash Flow from Financing Activities
Change in Equity 0 0 0 0
Change in Debt (206) (93) 0 0
Dividends Paid (101) (126) (126) (126)
Net Cashflow from Financing Activities (320) (209) (141) (126)
Net Increase in Cash & Cash Equivalents 67 88 1 10
Cash & cash equivalents at the beginning 45 112 199 200
Cash & cash equivalents at the end 112 199 200 210 *Lohia research estimates
Financial Ratios CY09 CY10 CY11E CY12E
Profitability Ratios
Return on Assets (ROA) 17.19% 19.74% 20.56% 20.51%
Return on Equity (ROE) 44.16% 35.40% 34.49% 32.28%
Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) 47.61% 45.09% 43.07% 40.19%
Liquidity Ratios
Current Ratio 1.61 1.61 1.51 1.51
Acid Test Ratio 0.88 0.77 0.75 0.76
Debt-Equity Ratio 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00
Interest Cover 13.83 41.86 51.36 68.47
Margin Ratios
EBITDA Margin 17.36% 18.56% 20.20% 21.36%
EBIT Margin 15.39% 16.18% 17.98% 19.17%
PBT Margin 14.27% 15.80% 17.63% 18.89%
Net Profit Margin 11.28% 11.27% 12.69% 13.60% *Lohia research estimates
Goodricke Group Limited
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Peer set Analysis
Particulars Tata
Global Beverages
McLeod Russel
Jayshree Tea
Goodricke Group
Rossell India
Current Share Price (`) 87 232 133 127 45
No. of Shares (Mn) 618.40 109.46 22.34 21.60 36.70
Face Value (`) 1 5 5 10 2
Market Cap (`Mn) 53,584 25,362 2,979 2,744 1,657
Sales (`Mn) 17,926 10,731 4,862 3,993 759
PAT (` Mn) 1,806 2,322 463 450 193
EPS (`) 2.92 21.22 16.04 20.83 5.25
P/E (x)* 29.67 10.92 8.31 6.10 8.57
P/BV 2.59 1.65 0.84 1.91 1.67
Dividend Yield (%) 2.33 2.17 2.25 3.94 0.89
Source: Moneycontrol.com, Lohia Research;
Comparison with Index
Outlook & Valuation
At the current market price of `127, the stock is trading at P/E of 6.10 with industry P/E hovering
around 14.16, the stock is underpriced. Based on discounted cash flow method, we have arrived at a
fair price target of `155 for Goodricke Group Limited. At our target price, the stock offers a potential
upside of around 22% from the current level; we initiate a ‘buy’ rating on the stock with
accumulation at every dip.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Goodricke Sensex
Goodricke Group Limited
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For Suggestions, clarifications & your valuable feedback write back to us at:
Lohia Securities Ltd, 4 Brabourne Road, 5th Floor Kolkata-700001 Board :( 91-33) 40026600,
E-mail: [email protected]
For Institutional Sales Lohia Securities Ltd, 1602-B, Lady rattan Tower, 72 Dainik Shivner Marg Gandhinagar, worli, Mumbai- 400018 Board: (91-22) 2492 4449, E-mail: [email protected]
Institutional Team:
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Prakash N Sharma [email protected] +91 33 40026732
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Our Technical Research Team
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Investment Rating
Buy > 15 % Hold (5%-15%) Sell < 5%