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Goodyear Result Updated

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    Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

    Y/E December (` cr) 4QCY11 4QCY10 % chg (yoy) 3QCY11 % chg (qoq)Net sales 395 341 16.0 395 0.1EBITDA 34 29 16.9 28 22.5

    EBITDA margin (%) 8.7 8.6 7bp 7.1 159bp

    Adjusted PAT 20 22 (9.7) 16 27.2Source: Company, Angel Research

    For 4QCY2011, Goodyear India Ltd. (GIL) reported lower-than-expected top line

    at`395cr as against our expectation of`441cr. However, the companys EBITDA

    margin remained flat on a yoy basis despite higher raw-material cost, which wasoffset by lower other expenses. Net profit for the quarter came in at `20cr, 8.8%

    lower than our estimate of`22cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stock.Branded business and tractor tyre demand to drive future growth: GIL is a marketleader in the tractor tyre industry. Tractor tyres accounted for ~60% of the

    companys tonnage offtake in CY2010. The tractor industry witnessed growth of

    27% in 2010 and is expected to grow at the same pace going forward, helping

    the company to register a ~17% CAGR in revenue over CY2011-13E. Moreover,

    GIL caters to high-end brands such as Audi, BMW, Land Rover, Mitsubishi and

    Porsche and has a brand name in the commodity business with stupendous ROIC

    of 1,022.7% for CY2011 in comparison to less than 30% of other listed peers.Furthermore, the company is debt free with cash reserves of`249cr for CY2011.

    Outlook and valuation: We expect GILs revenue to post a 17.2% CAGR overCY2011-13E along with a 239bp expansion in its EBITDA margin on account of

    easing rubber prices, which is evident from a 29% decline from the high of

    `243/kg in April 2011 to`188 as on February 27, 2012. In addition, we expect

    the companys net profit to witness a 37.5% CAGR over CY2011-13E to `122cr.

    At`358, the stock is trading at PE of 6.8x its CY2013E earnings. We maintain ourBuy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of `484, based on atarget P/E of 8.0x for CY2013E earnings.Key financials

    Y/E December (` cr) CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013ENet Sales 1297 1516 1780 2082% chg 27.6 16.9 17.4 17.0

    Net Profit 75 65 88 122% chg 2.3 (13.7) 35.6 39.4

    EBITDA (%) 8.7 7.4 8.5 9.8

    EPS (Rs) 32.4 28.0 38.0 52.9P/E (x) 11.0 12.8 9.4 6.8

    P/BV (x) 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.7

    RoE (%) 30.8 22.0 25.0 28.2RoIC (%) 412.8 1022.7 844.2 645.3

    EV/Sales (x) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

    EV/EBITDA (x) 5.4 5.1 3.5 2.1

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    BUYCMP `358

    Target Price `484

    Investment Period 12 Months

    Stock Info

    Sector

    Bloomberg Code

    Shareholding Pattern (%)

    Promoters 74.0

    MF / Banks / Indian Fls 6.3

    FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.4

    Indian Public / Others 15.3

    Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr

    Sensex 9.7 (0.5) 106.0

    Goodyear 26.9 59.6 438.9

    Beta 0.7

    Automobile

    Market Cap (Rs cr) 825

    52 Week High / Low 376 / 216

    Avg. Daily Volume 24,452

    Face Value (Rs) 10

    BSE Sensex 17,731

    Nifty 5,376

    Reuters Code GDYR.BO

    GDYR IN

    Shareen Batatawala+91- 22- 3935 7800 Ext: 6849

    [email protected]

    Goodyear IndiaPerformance Highlights

    Company Update | Automobile

    February 27, 2012

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 2

    Exhibit 1:4QCY2011 performanceY/E December (` cr) 4QCY11 4QCY10 yoy chg (%) 3QCY11 qoq chg (%) CY2011 CY2010 % chgNet Sales 395 341 16.0 395 0.1 1516 1297 16.9Net raw material 291 244 19.0 294 (1.0) 1131 942 20.1(% of Sales) 73.6 71.7 74.4 74.6 72.6

    Staff Costs 20 15 29.7 18 7.7 73 56 30.9

    (% of Sales) 5.0 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.3

    Other Expenses 50 52 (2.9) 55 (8.2) 200 186 7.1

    (% of Sales) 12.7 15.2 13.8 13.2 14.4

    Total Expenditure 361 311 15.9 367 (1.6) 1404 1184 18.6Operating Profit 34 29 16.9 28 22.5 112 113 (0.5)OPM 8.7 8.6 7.1 7.4 8.7

    Interest 2 1 26.0 2 (16.7) 5 4 37.8

    Depreciation 5 4 30.6 5 4.3 20 15 28.4

    Other Income 2.7 8.5 (68.0) 2.6 6.3 9 17 (48.6)

    PBT 30 33 (7.2) 24 27.7 96 111 12.6(% of Sales) 7.6 9.5 6.0 6.3 8.6

    Tax 10 10 (1.7) 8 28.9 32 36 (12.4)

    (% of PBT) 32.7 30.9 32.4 32.9 32.6

    Reported PAT 20 22 (9.7) 16 27.2 65 75 (13.7)PATM 5.1 6.6 4.0 4.3 5.8

    Equity capital (cr) 23 23 23 23 23

    EPS (`) 8.8 9.7 (9.7) 6.9 27.2 28.0 32.4 (13.7)Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 2:Actual vs. estimates (4QCY2011)Actual (` cr) Estimate (` cr) Var (%)

    Total Income 395 441 (10.4)

    PBIDT 34 33 4.8

    PBIDTA margin (%) 8.7 7.4 126bp

    Adjusted PAT 20 22(8.8)

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Below-expectation top line and bottom line

    For 4QCY2011, GIL reported 16% yoy growth in its revenue to `395cr, 10.4%

    lower than our estimate of `441cr. Higher raw-material cost during 4QCY2011

    vis--vis 4QCY2010 was offset by lower other expenses, thus leading to

    unchanged EBITDA margin for the quarter at 8.7%. Net profit for the quarter came

    in at`20cr, down 9.7% yoy.

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 3

    Investment rationale

    Dominant player in the tractor tyre segment

    GIL is the market leader in the tractor tyre segment, with a market share of~22.3% in the tractor front tyres segment and ~35.9% in the tractor rear tyres

    segment.

    Tractor tyres accounted for ~60% of the companys tonnage offtake in CY2010,

    followed by passenger car radials, which accounted for 33% of the total offtake. As

    per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA), the tractor industry grew by 25% and

    27% in CY2009 and CY2010, respectively. We expect demand for tractors to grow

    robustly in future, given the governments thrust on improving farm output and

    higher planned expenditure for the same in the budget. Moreover, increasing

    awareness regarding the use of modern techniques of farming among farmers is

    expected to trigger tractor sales in the years to come. We estimate tractor sales toregister an 8-10% CAGR over FY2011-13E. Being a market leader in this segment,

    we expect GIL to benefit immensely and estimate the company to register a sales

    CAGR of 17.2% over CY2011-13E.

    Exhibit 3:Product mix (CY2010)

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4:Market leader in the tractor tyre segment

    Source: Company, CRISIL Research, Angel Research

    Branded business in the commodity industry

    GIL caters to high-end brands such as Audi, BMW, Land Rover, Mitsubishi andPorsche and has a brand name in the commodity business with stupendous ROIC

    of 1,022.7% for CY2011 in comparison to less than 30% of other listed peers.

    Tractor rear49%

    Tractor front11%

    Passenger cars33%

    OTR2%

    MHCV5% 0.3

    13.4

    22.3

    35.9

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    MHCV Passenger cars Tractor Front Tractor Rear

    Market

    Share(%)

    2008 2009 2010

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 5

    Financial performance

    Exhibit 5:Key assumptionsCY2012E CY2013E

    Change in tyre realization 2.0 3.0

    Change in rubber price 1.0 2.0

    Source: Angel Research

    Exhibit 6:Change in estimates (CY2012E)Y/E December Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chgNet sales (`cr) 1835 1780 (3.0)

    EBITDA (`cr) 150 150 0.2

    EBITDA margin (%) 8.2 8.5 27bp

    PAT (`cr) 91.7 87.6 (4.5)

    EPS (`) 39.8 38.0 (4.5)

    Source: Angel Research

    Revenue to post a 17.2% CAGR over CY2011-13E

    We expect GIL to post a revenue CAGR of 17.2% over CY2011-13E, from

    `1,516cr in CY2011 to `2,082cr in CY2013E, on account of improved volumes

    for manufactured as well as traded tyres.

    Exhibit 7:Revenue growth driven by tyre volumes

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    0

    500

    1000

    1500

    2000

    2500

    CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

    (%)

    (`

    cr)

    Revenue (LHS) Revenue growth (RHS)

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 6

    EBITDA margin expansion to aid net profit growth

    For CY2012, GILs EBITDA margin contracted by 130bp from 8.7% in CY2010 to

    7.4% in CY2011 on the back of increased raw-material prices. Rubber prices have

    seen a 29% decline in the past eight months to `188/kg in February 2012.

    We expect the companys EBITDA margin to expand by 239bp over CY2011-13E

    on account of stable rubber prices and consequently decreasing raw-material cost.

    As a result, we expect net profit to post a 37.5% CAGR over CY2011-13E.

    Exhibit 8:EBITDA margin to bounce back

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Exhibit 9:Profit growth on an uptrend

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    Outlook and valuation

    We have incorporated CY2013E in our model and revised our revenue andearnings estimates for CY2012E slightly downwards. At current levels, the stock is

    trading at PE of 6.8x CY2013E and P/B of 1.7x for CY2013E. We maintain our

    Buy recommendation on the stock with a revised target price of`484, based on a

    target P/E of 8.0x for SY2013E.

    Exhibit 10:One-year forward P/E

    Source: Company, Angel Research

    0

    4

    8

    12

    16

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

    (%)

    (

    `

    cr)

    EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS)

    (50)

    0

    50

    100

    150

    0

    30

    60

    90

    120

    150

    CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013E

    (%)

    (`cr)

    PAT (LHS) PAT growth (RHS)

    0

    3,000

    6,000

    9,000

    12,000

    15,000

    Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12

    (`)

    Price 2x 5x 8x 11x

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    February 27, 2012 7

    Exhibit 11:Relative valuationYear end Sales(` cr) OPM(%) PAT(` cr) EPS(`) ROE(%) P/E(x) P/BV(x) EV/EBITDA(x) EV/Sales(x)

    Apollo FY2013E 13580 10.2 556 11.0 12.9 7.5 1.3 4.8 0.5

    MRF SY2013E 13710 10.1 534 1260.3 17.3 7.7 1.3 5.3 0.5

    Goodyear CY2013E 2082 9.8 122 52.9 28.2 6.8 1.7 2.1 0.2Source: Company

    Risks

    Volatile rubber prices: Rubber is the major raw material used in themanufacture of tyres and constitutes ~65% of the total raw-material cost.

    Rubber price was at a high of `243/kg in April 2011; however, prices have

    come down to`188/kg as on February 27, 2012. Increased volatility in rubber

    prices would have a direct impact on the companys EBITDA margin andconsequently its profit.

    Exhibit 12:Rubber price trend

    Source: Rubber Board (*MTD)

    (9)

    (6)

    (3)

    0

    3

    6

    9

    12

    0

    50

    100

    150

    200

    250

    300

    Fe

    b-1

    1

    Mar-

    11

    Apr-

    11

    May-1

    1

    Jun-1

    1

    Jul-11

    Aug-1

    1

    Sep-1

    1

    Oct-11

    Nov-1

    1

    Dec-1

    1

    Jan-1

    2

    *Fe

    b-1

    2

    (%)

    (`/kg

    )

    Rubber price Change in price (%)

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 8

    Indian tyre industry Demand, a growth driver

    The Indian tyre industry has a size of`30,000cr (as of September 2011), of which

    exports contribute `3,600cr. The industry is classified into commercial vehicle tyres

    (71%) and passenger vehicle tyres (22%). Commercial vehicle tyres include

    medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV, 55%), light commercial vehicles

    (LCV, 8%) and tractors (8%). Passenger vehicle tyres include passenger cars and

    MUVs (12%), motorcycles (7%) and scooters (3%).

    The three major segments of the tyre industry are original equipment (OE, 26%),

    replacement (63%) and exports (11%). The performance of the industry is

    influenced by the replacement segment due to a larger share of truck tyres (71%)

    in the product mix.

    The industry is a raw-material intensive industry, with raw material constituting

    about 66% of sales turnover and 70% of operational cost.

    Exhibit 13:Tyre industrys statisticsFY2011Current capacity (MT/day) 6,429

    Current capacity (MT/year) 2,262,857

    Current sales (`cr) 59,507

    Revenue per MT (`) 262,972

    Investment per TPD@ (`cr) 6.1

    FY201114ECAGR for volume sales 9%

    Total capacity by FY2014E (MT) 2,930,466

    Capacity added (MT) 667,608

    Total investment (`cr) 11,569

    Debt (`cr) 5,785

    Equity (`cr) 7,231

    Net profit in FY2011E (`cr) 950

    Net profit in FY2014E (`cr) 2,410

    Market capitalisation* (`cr) 9,711

    PE for FY2014E (x) 4.0

    Source: Angel Research; Note: Industry includes Apollo Tyres, MRF, Goodyear India, JK Tyre

    and CEAT,@

    TPD stands for tonne per day, *As on February 27,2012

    The current capacity of the tyre industry in India is ~22.6lakh MTPA with an

    assumption of 352 working days, thus leading to revenue per MT of `2.6lakh.

    Assuming a 9% CAGR for the next three years, the capacity is expected to increase

    by ~6.7lakh tonnes to ~29.3lakh tonnes in FY2014E. Currently, investment for

    expansion of one TPD is`6.1cr, of which`5cr is capex requirement and`1.1cr is

    working capital requirement. Hence, the total investment required for the next

    three years is `11,569cr. With the assumption of 1:1 debt-equity ratio and 20%

    dividend payout for the next three years, net profit for FY2014E is expected to

    stand at`2,410cr, resulting in PE of 4.0x its earnings.

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 9

    The company

    GIL is a subsidiary of Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company, USA, which holds a

    74% stake in the company. GIL is the sixth largest tyre manufacturing company in

    India, with an overall market share of 5.5%.

    Exhibit 14:Market share (India)

    Source: Industry, CRISIL Research

    The company majorly caters to the tractor tyre segment, with a market share of

    ~22.3% in tractor front tyres and 35.9% in tractor rear tyres. In the passenger car

    tyres segment, which is the second major revenue contributor, GIL has a market

    share of 13.4%.

    GIL is in an offtake agreement (on a non-exclusive basis and can be terminated by

    either party with a four-month notice) with Goodyear South Asia Tyres Pvt. Ltd.,

    from which it procures tyres. This constituted about 23% of net sales in CY2010.

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

    (%)

    Apol lo tyres MRF Ltd JK tyres Ceat tyres Goodyear Tyres

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 10

    Profit & Loss Statement

    Y/E December (` cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013EGross sales 1,002 1,069 1,377 1,610 1,890 2,212Less: Excise duty 82 52 81 94 111 129Net Sales 920 1,016 1,297 1,516 1,780 2,082

    Other operating income - - - - - -

    Total operating income 920 1,016 1,297 1,516 1,780 2,082% chg 3.4 10.5 27.6 16.9 17.4 17.0

    Net Raw Materials 707 696 942 1,131 1,293 1,489

    Other Mfg costs 49 46 48 50 66 77

    Personnel 42 49 56 73 89 104

    Other 69 103 139 150 182 208

    Total Expenditure 867 893 1,184 1,404 1,629 1,878

    EBITDA 53 123 113 112 150 204% chg (25.8) 131.6 (8.2) (0.5) 33.9 35.7

    (% of Net Sales) 5.8 12.1 8.7 7.4 8.5 9.8

    Depreciation 11 13 15 20 22 24

    EBIT 42 110 98 93 128 180% chg (30.2) 163.3 (11.6) (5.1) 38.3 40.2

    (% of Net Sales) 4.6 10.9 7.5 6.1 7.2 8.6

    Interest & other charges 3 4 4 5 6 8

    Other Income 14 5 17 9 9 10

    (% of sales) 1.5 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.5 0.5

    PBT 52 111 111 96 131 182% chg (19.2) 112.9 (0.4) (13.2) 35.8 39.4

    Tax 20 38 36 32 43 60

    (% of PBT) 38.5 34.4 32.6 32.9 33.0 33.0

    PAT (reported) 32 73 75 65 88 122Extraordinary (Exp)/Inc. - - - - - -

    ADJ. PAT 32 73 75 65 88 122% chg (18.9) 127.0 2.3 (13.7) 35.6 39.4

    (% of Net Sales) 3.5 7.2 5.8 4.3 4.9 5.9

    Basic EPS (`) 14.0 31.7 32.4 28.0 38.0 52.9Fully Diluted EPS ( ) 14.0 31.7 32.4 28.0 38.0 52.9% chg (18.9) 127.0 2.3 (13.7) 35.6 39.4

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 11

    Balance Sheet

    Y/E December (` cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013ESOURCES OF FUNDSEquity Share Capital 23 23 23 23 23 23Preference Capital - - - - - -

    Reserves& Surplus 138 192 248 293 360 460

    Shareholders Funds 161 215 271 317 383 483Minority Interest - - - - - -

    Total Loans - - - - - -

    Deferred Tax Liability 11 11 10 - - -

    Total Liabilities 172 226 281 317 383 483APPLICATION OF FUNDSGross Block 264 277 304 337 370 407

    Less: Acc. Depreciation 149 157 166 185 208 232

    Net Block 115 120 139 151 163 175Capital Work-in-Progress 13 36 59 59 59 59

    Goodwill - - - - - -

    Investments - - - - - -

    Current Assets 240 325 395 487 589 737Cash 55 159 218 249 301 390

    Loans & Advances 12 16 18 22 28 33

    Inventory 71 52 61 86 89 102

    Debtors 102 99 98 131 171 211

    Current liabilities 196 257 312 382 429 489

    Net Current Assets 44 69 83 106 160 248Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -

    Total Assets 172 226 281 317 383 483

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 12

    Cash Flow Statement

    Y/E December (` cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013EProfit before tax 52 111 111 96 131 182

    Depreciation 11 13 15 20 22 24

    Change in Working Capital (15) 79 45 8 (3) 2

    Other income 2 (20) 10 (19) (9) (10)

    Direct taxes paid (20) (38) (36) (32) (43) (60)

    Cash Flow from Operations 30 145 146 74 98 138(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (20) (37) (50) (32) (34) (37)

    (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments - - - - - -

    Other income (1) 15 (15) 9 9 10

    Cash Flow from Investing (21) (22) (65) (24) (25) (27)Issue of Equity - - - - - -

    Inc./(Dec.) in loans - - - - - -

    Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (14) (16) (19) (19) (21) (21)

    Others (5) (3) (3) - - -

    Cash Flow from Financing (18) (19) (21) (19) (21) (21)Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (9) 104 59 31 52 90

    Opening Cash balances 65 55 159 218 249 301Closing Cash balances 55 159 218 249 301 390

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    February 27, 2012 13

    Key RatiosY/E December (` cr) CY2008 CY2009 CY2010 CY2011 CY2012E CY2013EValuation Ratio (x)P/E (on FDEPS) 25.6 11.3 11.0 12.8 9.4 6.8P/CEPS 19.0 9.6 9.2 9.8 7.5 5.6

    P/BV 5.1 3.8 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.7

    Dividend yield (%) 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.3 0.1 0.1

    EV/Sales 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2

    EV/EBITDA 14.5 5.4 5.4 5.1 3.5 2.1

    EV / Total Assets 4.3 2.9 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.9

    Per Share Data (`)EPS (Basic) 14.0 31.7 32.4 28.0 38.0 52.9

    EPS (fully diluted) 14.0 31.7 32.4 28.0 38.0 52.9

    Cash EPS 18.8 37.2 39.1 36.5 47.6 63.5

    DPS 6.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 8.0 8.0

    Book Value 69.7 93.1 117.4 137.2 165.9 209.5

    Dupont AnalysisEBIT margin 4.6 10.9 7.5 6.1 7.2 8.6

    Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

    Asset turnover (x) 9.3 13.7 54.8 167.3 79.4 62.6

    ROIC (Post-tax) 26.0 97.9 278.4 686.4 383.3 361.8

    Cost of Debt (Post Tax) - - - - - -

    Leverage (x) (0.3) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)

    Operating ROE 17.1 25.6 54.3 146.2 - -

    Returns (%)ROCE (Pre-tax) 24.6 53.8 37.6 30.7 36.7 41.5

    Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 42.3 149.2 412.8 1,022.7 844.2 645.3

    ROE 21.1 39.0 30.8 22.0 25.0 28.2

    Turnover ratios (x)Asset Turnover 3 4 4 5 5 5

    Inventory / Sales (days) 28 19 17 21 18 18

    Receivables (days) 40 35 27 31 35 37

    Payables (days) 83 105 96 99 96 95

    WC (ex-cash) (days) (4.4) (32.2) (38.0) (34.5) (28.8) (24.9)

    Solvency ratios (x)Net debt to equity (0.3) (0.7) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8) (0.8)

    Net debt to EBITDA (1.0) (1.3) (1.9) (2.2) (2.0) (1.9)

    Interest Coverage 13.1 28.2 25.8 17.8 20.0 22.7

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    Goodyear| Company Update

    Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com

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    Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to thelatest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may haveinvestment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

    Disclosure of Interest Statement Goodyear India

    1. Analyst ownership of the stock No

    2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No

    3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No

    4. Broking relationship with company covered No

    Ratings (Returns): Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

    Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors


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