Google -SEI

David Purkey, Jack Sieber, Guido Franco, Alan Hollander, Vishal Mehta, Fernanda Zermoglio

Overview of dayTIMING ACTIVITIES FACILITATION

12:30-1:00Introductions and Overview of the workshop:

Objectives and Expectations

Amy Luers/David

Purkey

12:45 – 13:00

Setting the Stage – Opportunities to support

adaptation planning through Google Earth in

Guido Franco

13:00-15:00Presentation and brainstorm of decision-matrix

and development ideasSEI Team

15:00 - 15:15 Tea/Coffee Break

15:15– 15:45Google presentation on ideas to add to the

brainstorm

KARIN TUXEN-BETTMAN, AND CHRISTIAAN ADAAMS

15:45 - 16:15Continued brainstorm of decision-matrix and

development ideas

SEI Team

16:15-16:45The way forward and next steps. Closing remarks

and comments

David Purkey

• The story line of adaptation• We’ll use example of the water sector

Location of El Dorado Irrigation District

Tour of the EID System

Proposed EID Drought Plan Trigger Logic

A New Planning Uncertainty

Climate Change Assessments in Water Planning – The Steps

Jamie Anderson, Ca DWR, 2008

El Dorado Irrigation District in WEAP

Results

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

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Demand-Supply Shortfall

Overview of the Project

• Vision– Interactive, integrated sharing– Including feedback to the tool development

process

• Overview of project– California and Kenya

Data

Information

Awareness Actions

X

X

Integrate

Analyze

Communicate/Share

Step 0: How is climate expected to change?

Step 1: What information is out there to understand how climate will affect my activities?

Step 2: How sensitive are my activities to expected climate changes?

Step 3:How will specific adaptation strategies reduce my sensitivity to climate change?

What might the steps in a toolkit look like

weADAPTKnowledge Sharing/Learning

• What are others doing when they find themselves in my situation• How can I share what I have learned in this process?

GUIDO FRANCO

User Questions:

• What about climate change?• How is climate expected to change?• What information is out there to understand how climate will affect my activities?

Project response:

• Facilitate access to existing data (relevant variables, intuitive format, “data discovery”)

• Synthesize relevant information• Using available data and existing materials to extract relevant

information that address planning needs

Reality Project Vision• Climate mapping

• Other stressors (eg. population growth, land use changes)

popchange.kmz pop2005.kmz• Model Output

NCAR_model.kmz

average annual rainfall.kmz

Reports

Databases

ModelsField data

Local knowledge

Trans-disciplinary debates

User Questions:

• How could this change affect our drought plan?• How sensitive are my activities to expected climate changes?

Project response:

• Provide the analytical capacity for context-relevant variables to be analyzed (overlays? Hot spot analyses?)• Introduce local/own data • Explore causality/linkages between climate change and activities (learn about existing frameworks)

Reality Google Earth Vision• Differential Snowpack

• India water portal

• Spatial Analysis (example from Soils and cropping systems)• Climate Change Explorer

• GIS analysis

SnowDecreaseMod.kmzSnowHistoricMod.kmz

Evapotranspirationl.kmz

Crops on Poor Soils

Target Areas

Weather Stations◊ Connect to spreadsheets

Poverty Indices

Agricultural Yields◊ Utilize Census data

Population

Drought Risk

INTEGRATIONConverting Data to Information INTEGRATIONConverting Data to Information

Typical GCM cell sizeTypical GCM cell size::>2000mm / year>2000mm / year

1500m altitude1500m altitude

700mm / year700mm / year

What would you do with a GCM climate change What would you do with a GCM climate change projection of -10% precipitation and +2.5 degrees projection of -10% precipitation and +2.5 degrees

for this locationfor this location

Climate Change Explorer

Climate Change Explorer 1.0.appref-ms

Buzz groupBreak into pairs (Google-project team)

Let’s talk about challenges and opportunities for…

20 minutes

• serving data - (eg. web services/formats of existing data)• giving users the ability update and add their data on top of Google Earth• improving the user experience in terms of visualization, time series, representing

uncertainty.• one combine information in different kml layers (eg. fire risk with population growth)

Report back to group 15 minutes

User Questions:

• What can I do to improve the performance of the drought plan? (eg. associated conservation and infrastructure investments, restrict development, revisit triggers)

• How will specific adaptation strategies reduce my sensitivity to climate change?

• Which strategy best achieves my goals?

Project response: • Search and discover adaptation options currently in place in

similar settings • Explore and showcase impact models for use in similar

settings• Use weADAPT tools (perhaps Google Earth?) to process

spatial data for use in scenario models• Develop visualization techniques and tools for representing

model output in decision-relevant ways

Reality Project Vision

• WEAP– Weaping river

• Stand-alone models

WEAP ground water simulation.kmz

WeapingRiverBasin.kmz

– Barada Springs, Syria

Malaria:Monitoring and EvaluationReal-time interpretation of meteorological data…

…send ‘alerts’ to ‘local’ clinics and hospitals when index is above critical threshold

Multi-model average precipitation % change, medium scenario (A1B), representing seasonal precipitation regimes, total differences 2090-99 minus 1980-99

After IPCC AR4: SPM 7

White areas are where less than two thirds of the models agree in the sign of the change

After IPCC AR4: SPM 7

Buzz groupBreak into pairs (Google-project team)

Let’s talk about challenges and opportunities for…

20 minutes

• Knowledge sharing database structures for searching adaptation options• Streamlining (automating?) process of translating results to visualization on

Google Earth • Outputting and sharing data (unpacking kml files)• New ways of deriving key messages from large datasets (eg. Headlines)• New ways of visualizing delta values (eg. dynamic charts from overlays)

Report back to group 15 minutes

Step 0: How is climate expected to change?

Step 1: What information is out there to understand how climate will affect my activities?

Step 2: How sensitive are my activities to expected climate changes?

Step 3:How will specific adaptation strategies reduce my sensitivity to climate change?

What might the steps in a toolkit look like

weADAPTKnowledge Sharing/Learning

• What are others doing when they find themselves in my situation• How can I share what I have learned in this process?

User Questions:

• What are others doing when they find themselves in my situation• How can I share what I have learned in this process?

Project Response:

• Build on existing momentum from wiki/weADAPT portal •Adaptation databases can be used to highlight adaptation options currently in place within the region using gadgets and spreadsheets to map up the options. • Evaluation of options through a process known as metrics is being investigated in weADAPT. An initial evaluation of ways to address this in the Google regional studies will be addressed

weADAPT

weADAPT

Context

• Adaptation to climate change is necessary, and is moving up the political and development agendas.

• Lots of money beginning to go into adaptation through both public and private sector.

• There are no ‘easy’ or ‘best’ solutions; to be effective it will require learning from the knowledge and experience of many different groups and a rolling-reassessment.

Principles• Adaptation is a complex process of socio-institutional learning that

recognises often competing stakeholder goals and processes and uses information at various levels and in many ways; rather than equating adaptation with a reduction in vulnerability as a scientific or technical forecast.

• The future is uncertain, but we know enough to act! Adaptation strategies and actions should be robust against a wide variety of future conditions; rather than assuming we can predict future impacts and provide climate proofing measures.

• The value of information is in reducing the uncertainty in making a decision. Our aim is to integrate climate change and climate change adaptation in 'good enough' practice in risk management; rather than expecting decision makers to adopt new perspectives and analytical tools and to differentiate between decision making for current issues and long-term sustainable development.

• Adaptation activities will require strong and enduring partnerships between different stakeholders and across scales.

Objectives

• Planners will find accessible information and tools to guide development of adaptation projects

• Users will be able to upload their experiences, sharing successes (and challenges) and learning from each other.

• A broader community of practitioners and developers, drawing upon the collaboration with planners and users, will accelerate development of professional capacity and reflect in the platform practical learning by doing.

• The ultimate aim of the platform is to promote adaptation as a process of social learning, supported by shared information on present and future risks.

www.weADAPT.org PORTAL

weADAPT

Overview and some examples

Loose network of organizations

working together on adaptation

weADAPT

Climate Change Explorer * NAIADE* AWhere * Decision

Explorer

weADAPT

The Climate Change Explorer

• Collaboratively developed

• Focus on• User needs

AWhere Spatial Information Systems

Key Features:

• Desktop Client• Analytical tools• Foundation data• Data sharing through .amaps• Integrative add ins

e.g. Climate Chart

Add-ins

AWhere Spatial Information Systems

This SQL query will extract all years of data for a user selected month – the query is in the database NOT the GIS software.

Gridded data = Month 9, 2050, Surface Temperature, Scenario A1B, Run 1

Communications strategies

• Different purposes for different audiences• Defining the objective of communications

– To inform and educate– To stimulate a behavioral change– To exchange information – Develop solution-oriented information?

• Time• Getting the message right• Implementation and Monitoring

wiki, briefing notes, videos and peer-reviewed pubs,

manuals, toolkits

weADAPT

Guidance and Experience• Wiki

– pages,– Guides– Videos and wikitations

• Briefing Notes– Climate change science for development planning – Climate Change Explorer– Uncertainty

• Manuals and Toolkits– Climate Change Explorer– Vulnerability analysis

Knowledge sharing experiences from recent efforts

•Adaptation Basics•Guidance on the process of adaptation; from vulnerability assessment to screening adaptation options to communicating results.•Experiences and examples from adaptation projects•Collaborative work•Information on tools and methods

Data

Information

Awareness Actions

X

X

Integrate

Analyze

Communicate/Share

A vision

• Actionable “locational intelligence” is derived from many data variables – spatial as well as temporal• Professional GIS (Geographic Information Systems) require trained specialists who output… maps• Maps are not information systems; they are two-dimensional representations frozen in time• “Decision makers” need more agile information systems that answer the questions of: who, what, when, and where

A vision, IIVision: Geographically referenced adaptation database that integrates

current weADAPT components in an effort to connect:

ushmm_darfur_n.kmz

People to Tools

• Insights and lessons for sharing ongoing experiences from the use of different tools

• Google Earth and AWhere for risk assessment and mapping

• People to Tools• People to People

– Many opportunities for information and expertise exchange – Online collaboration, sharing and communications – Images, videos, experiences, documents– Integrated training and e-learning– Searchable adaptation strategies database (by sector, geography,

livelihood group)

• Tools to Tools – Potential to link, integrate, re-shape existing tools based on user

needs– WEAP/AWhere, Climate Change Explorer -Google Earth

Geographically referenced adaptation database that integrates current weADAPT components in an effort to connect:

A vision, III

Thank you

• If we agree that there is a role for a distributed global adaptation data base, including key vulnerability data sets, climate, adaptation and learning? What could this look like?

• How can the collective experiences of ongoing projects contribute to specific challenges in terms of a core set of best practices?

Final Thoughts and Next Steps

• Round-table of impressions• Evaluation of the day• Wrap Up