Presentation by Dr John Thompson, STEPS Agriculture and Food convenor, at the Resilience 2011 conference in Arizona State - http://resilience2011.org/
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1. Governance, Pathways and the Transformation of Global
Agri-Food Systems Dr John Thompson Research Fellow, Knowledge,
Technology and Society, Institute of Development Studies and
Co-convenor, Food and Agriculture Domain The STEPS Centre, UK
Resilience 2011 Crossing the Chasm Session 13 March 2011 Arizona
State University
2. Presentation
Technological progress and innovation pathways
Framing, narratives and pathways to food futures
Environmental change and maize innovation pathways
The global food crisis and governance challenges
Reframing the debate 3Ds directionality, distribution,
diversity
Conclusions
3. Linear view of agricultural science and technology
Notions of progress pervade debates about food and agricultural
futures
Agricultural history is viewed as a race to advance science and
technology without stating the particular direction
Treats innovation as homogenous:
No distinctions
No alternatives
No politics
Progress Past Future Andy Stirling, STEPS Centre/Univ of
Sussex
4. Open nature of technological progress Progress Science
Technology
Governments proclaim pro-innovation and pro-sustainability
policies, without specifying which options or values are
prioritised and why
Dissent over choice of directions is treated as
anti-technology
Underlying view of technological progress:
seen as singular pathway
determined by science
5. The missing economics of direction Time
But innovation in agri-food systems is vector not scalar
Innovation pathways are characterised by the crucial property
of direction as well as magnitude
Difficult to assert a single, uniquely objective way forward
toward an optimal food and agricultural future
6.
Many past examples of repeated lock-in at expense of
diversity
QWERTY keyboards
Microsoft Windows software
Internal combustion engine
Deliberately or not societies close down directions of change and
transformation Pressures intensify with globalisation,
harmonisation, standardisation Time Historic branching pathways
Innovation is vector, not scalar
7. Future innovation pathways?
Plural interests and values favour a diversity of directions or
innovation pathways:
Framing different interpretations and valuations of innovation
pathways reflect different peoples perspectives and priorities
Competing framings/narratives are linked to particular actors,
networks and interests
Co-produced with specific governance and innovation
strategies
Dominant narratives vs. alternative narratives (sometimes
hidden or suppressed)
these narratives i.e. story lines drive different policy and
scientific responses
9. environment system dominant framing
Dominant:
Avian Flu as a
global security threat
Biofuels as
sustainable energy
GM technology as
farmer empowerment
Drought Tolerant Maize as
resilience in the seed
Powerful institutions assert particular framings in ag policy
debates
10. environment system marginal framings dominant framing
Alternative:
Avian Flu as a
local livelihood problem
Biofuels as
carbon intensive
GM technology as
industrial control
Drought Tolerant Maize as
technological lock in
Powerful institutions may close down alternative framings in ag
policy debates
11. Using maize as a window though which to assess the dynamics
of environmental, social and technical change in innovation systems
in Africa
12.
Traced innovation pathways in maize and other key crops in
Kenya in response to rapid environmental, social and technical
change
Examined ways in which different actors in different settings
understand resilience to growing uncertainty
Assessed how their assumptions frame agricultural R&D and
food policy agendas and steer innovations and resources in
particular directions
Environmental change and maize innovation pathways
13. Farming System Livelihood System National Food System
Intensification High-input / Low-input Related Inputs + Practices
Input Provision Public vs Private Diversification On/Off Farm /
Commercialisation Market Access Framing Resilience at Different
Scales Seed National Food Security Strategy, Policies and
Programmes Drought Tolerant Hybrid Varieties/ Openly Pollinated
Varieties/ Local / Farmers Seed Shocks Stresses
14. Environmental change and maize innovation pathways
Climate change narrative leading to concerns about growing food
insecurity in Africa
Dominant framing Maize security = food security has huge
influence on national food policy debates
New R&D, government policy and major donor investments in
developing Drought Tolerant / Water Efficient Maize for dryland
environments
Pathways in and out of maize understanding the lock in to the
dominant maize pathway Why maize? and Why not alternatives?
15. Competing narratives
Growing food deficits require massive boosts to agricultural
productivity modern plant breeding and genetic engineering can
deliver solutions that need to be rolled out at scale.
Food insecurities are complex and diverse, and shaped by
particular ecological, economic, social and institutional interests
consequently they require context-specific, socio-technical
solutions in which farmer knowledge and local innovation play a
central role.
16. A Global Food Crisis?
17.
Can future populations be fed equitably, healthily and
sustainably?
Can we cope with future demands on water ?
Can we provide enough energy to supply the growing population
coming out of poverty?
Can we do this while mitigating and adapting to climate change
?
Energy Increased demand 50% by 2030 (IEA) Water Increased demand
30% by 2030 (IFPRI) Food Increased demand 50% by 2030 (FAO)
Questions to 2030/50 Drivers of change: Demand for food, water and
energy in a changing climate Climate Change
18. Crisis narratives and perfect storms "We head into a
perfect storm in 2030, because all of these things are operating on
the same time frame. If we don't address this, we can expect major
destabilisation, an increase in rioting and potentially significant
problems with international migration, as people move out to avoid
food and water shortages. Prof John Beddington The Guardian (18 Mar
09)
19. Crisis narratives and perfect storms
20. Does this lead to policy action?
Two further questions:
Do crisis narratives e.g. perfect storm framing help or hinder
policy action?
What sort of governance arrangements are needed to respond to
these dynamic and uncertain conditions?
21. Agriculture: Back on the agenda Enhancing Development
Impact from Research: Building onDemand 28-31 March 2010,
Montpellier, France
22. Responding to the crisis
Millennium Development Goals concentrating minds and mobilising
resources to meet specific targets
New policy statements from major development players WDR 2008;
IAASTD; Agricultural G-20
New initiatives High Level Task Force; AU/NEPAD = CAADP;
Rockefeller/Gates = AGRA; WFP = Hunger Hot Spots; WB = New Deal on
Global Food Policy; US Govt = Feed the Future
Emerging global agenda addressing the global food (and
nutrition) crisis, climate change, reform of trade rules, IPRs,
global public goods (ag R&D), ecological services, new pests
and diseases
and governance??
23. Governing food systems
Food governance regimes are contested and in a state of
flux
The EUs CAP is under comprehensive review with protagonists
pushing in many directions
Parts of US Govt want liberalisation under Doha; others battle
to protect domestic constituencies
Some CGIAR institutions want to retreat up-stream, while others
promote an Agricultural Research for Development (AR4D) agenda
The BMGF is exhibiting some loss of nerve, with senior figures
in its silver bullets approach
24. Global food system governance
At the global level there are also tensions between
UN High Level Task Force (HLTF) on the Global Food Security
Crisis and its Comprehensive Framework for Action (CFA) , and
G-8 response to the food crisis (LAquila Food Security
Initiative), pledging US$20bil over 3 years . (Only $350mil
committed so far)
The former seeks to empower governments of LDCs though the FAO
Committee on World Food Security (CFS)
latter assigns control mainly to donor countries and the World
Banks Global Ag & Food Security Prog (GAFSP)
These contestations offers scope for new thinking about
governance of the global food system
25. Dominant narratives
Two narratives have come to shape the dominant agricultural
policy debates:
Production-Innovation Narrative
Growth-Efficiency Narrative
Both invoked crisis narratives about global (and regional)
agri-food systems
1960s = population explosion, hunger and political instability
leading to a Red Revolution
2010s = food + water + energy + climate change crisis Perfect
Storms + new revolutions??
Both draw on different sources for scientific legitimacy and
call for mobilisation of financial, technical and institutional
resources through the international aid machinery Green
Revolutions?
26. Dominant narratives and policy solutions Missing the
target? Problem Solution Goal Meeting the MDGs Target 1c Reduce by
half proportion of people who suffer from hunger Low productivity
Low growth New technology and innovation Assumed Outcome Trade
reform and market liberalisation Improved food and nutritional
security for the bottom billion but it aint necessarily so
27.
Scarcity often emerges as a political strategy to justify
certain policy interventions over others
But scarcity is not a natural condition it is socially
constructed through imbalances of power
Famines, energy shortages and water stress are failures of the
equitable allocation of resources, not just the result of
generalised shortages, global environmental change or market
inefficiencies or their convergence at critical junctures
Addressing the needs of food insecure people requires a
fundamental shift from the language of scarcity to that of resource
allocation, access and entitlement
Challenging dominant narratives
28. Alternative narratives
Critiques of the dominant narratives have led to the emergence
of a number of alternatives:
Agroecological narrative
Participatory narrative
Both seek to understand the dynamic and multi-functional nature
of agri-food systems
Both promote local knowledge and innovation , which support
diverse forms of co-inquiry and co-management
They are necessarily interdisciplinary and synthetic
Stress the democratisation of ag R&D
29.
A 3D agenda
Directionality of pathways towards specific sustainability
objectives
Distribution more equitable distribution of benefits, costs and
risks associated with innovation
Diversity in order to build robust and resilient
socio-technical systems, mitigate technological lock-in and cater
for seemingly irreconcilable perspectives on value and
sustainability
30. Direction, distribution, diversity
Questions about the future of food and agricultural systems are
often restricted to: yes or no?; how much?; how fast?; who
leads?
More searching questions are often neglected: which way?; what
alternatives?; who says?; who benefits? and why?
There are many possible pathways each looks preferable to
different actors and interests
Only by nurturing diversities of pathways in agri-food systems
can we confidently reduce vulnerability, empower the least
advantaged and promote sustainable food futures
31. Conclusions
Avoid generalised diagnoses and unilinear technocratic
prescriptions to complex food systems problems
Question the dominant (and alternative) narratives that frame
food policy problems and responses
Address the 3Ds directionality, distribution and diversity in
food and ag policy
Promote and nurture a new global politics of science,
technology and innovation
Foster multiple pathways to sustainable food and agriculture
futures negotiate trade-offs and identify synergies
