INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer. Government Rural spend A mixed bag, may continue to lag INDIA | INDONOMICS | UPDATE 18 November 2019 After analysing government rural spending in two key schemes – MNREGA and PM-Kisan (click here for report), we looked at the central government spending on the entire gamut of rural-oriented schemes catering to rural housing, roads, crop insurance, irrigation, and health insurance. Our two key observations FYTD: (1) 41% of the budgeted funds have been used; (2) spending/fund allocation is weak for PM Kisan Yojana and Krishi Sinchai Yojana; other schemes have received due funds or have surplus funds from the previous year. Housing, crop insurance, health insurance, and MGNREGA are faring well. The shortfall will likely persist for schemes facing deficits as fiscal constraints worsen. State funding seems tepid, across schemes. PMAY – Both rural and urban housing are faring well; state’s funding is weak The central government’s spend has exceeded the budgeted target for urban housing and is expected to achieve the target for rural housing (currently at 69%). Additionally, there are surplus funds available from the previous years. State spending is significantly lower, surplus funds can be deployed to achieve targets. Rural houses sanctioned are significantly higher than last year, up 45% FYTD. This indicates that the government will be using surplus funds from the previous year and deliver higher units, as the budgeted allocation for FY20 is similar to FY19 at Rs 190bn. Since the inception of the policy, state-wise, the highest unit of houses have been constructed in West Bengal, followed by MP, UP, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh. Under PMAY (urban), an average of 3mn units were sanctioned in the last two years; FYTD20 units sanctioned are at 1.4mn. UP and AP lead in terms of houses sanctioned. PMGSY (road construction) – tepid progress, large quantum of surplus funds exist The central/state government has released Rs 30/12bn FYTD which is substantially lower than the budgeted amount of Rs 190bn (centre). While this indicates a likelihood of slow progress in rural road construction, it may scale-up in the coming months as construction activity gets impacted during monsoon. The budget allocation in FY20 is 23% higher than FY19 – thus, we believe current trends should improve ahead. There is a large surplus fund of Rs 229bn available from previous years, which can be used in case of lack of funds from the centre and state governments. Road-completion rate is impressive at 85-98% in the last three years. FY20 road length target of 50,000km is almost unchanged vs. target achieved in FY19, 6,898km have been constructed in FYTD20. In FY20, by state, Odisha is targeted to construct the maximum length of rural roads, followed, by Assam and Bihar. PMFBY (crop insurance) – spend and area insured is decent The government has paid Rs 80bn in crop premium in FYTD20. Total budgeted amount is at Rs 140bn (Rs 10bn higher than last year). State shares the same proportion as centre; 49% of the farmers insured (at 37mn), claimed benefits from this scheme for the 2019 kharif season. Claims rate was at 66% for 2018 crops. Area insured for Kharif crop was unchanged in 2019 at 27.5mn hectares. PMKSY (irrigation) – extended monsoon might be the reason for subdued expenditure The spend for FY20 stood at 20% of budget allocation, which is fairly poor. The expenditure outgo was the highest for farm ponds, followed by check dams, lifting devices and construction of tube wells. Good execution in ‘more crop per drop’; PMKSY (water resources) is sharply lower. Ayushman Bharat, PMJAY (health insurance) – E-card coverage excellent, spend is decent Combined budgetary allocation for FY19-20 is at Rs 88bn. For FY20, 60% of the budgeted target (Rs 64bn) has been spent. The government has provided e-cards to 96% of the target population. An almost equal number of public-private hospitals are empanelled (total at 18,236). Anjali Verma, Research Analyst (+ 9122 6246 4115) [email protected]Aditi Mohol, Research Associate (+ 9122 6667 9943) [email protected]
Transcript
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA RESEARCH Please see penultimate page for additional important disclosures. PhillipCapital (India) Private Limited. (“PHILLIPCAP”) is a foreign broker-dealer unregistered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is prepared by research analysts who are not registered in the USA. PHILLIPCAP research is distributed in the USA pursuant to Rule 15a-6 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 solely by Rosenblatt Securities Inc, an SEC registered and FINRA-member broker-dealer.
Government Rural spend A mixed bag, may continue to lag
INDIA | INDONOMICS | UPDATE
18 November 2019
After analysing government rural spending in two key schemes – MNREGA and PM-Kisan (click here for report), we looked at the central government spending on the entire gamut of rural-oriented schemes catering to rural housing, roads, crop insurance, irrigation, and health insurance. Our two key observations FYTD: (1) 41% of the budgeted funds have been used; (2) spending/fund allocation is weak for PM Kisan Yojana and Krishi Sinchai Yojana; other schemes have received due funds or have surplus funds from the previous year. Housing, crop insurance, health insurance, and MGNREGA are faring well. The shortfall will likely persist for schemes facing deficits as fiscal constraints worsen. State funding seems tepid, across schemes.
PMAY – Both rural and urban housing are faring well; state’s funding is weak
The central government’s spend has exceeded the budgeted target for urban housing and is expected to achieve the target for rural housing (currently at 69%). Additionally, there are surplus funds available from the previous years.
State spending is significantly lower, surplus funds can be deployed to achieve targets.
Rural houses sanctioned are significantly higher than last year, up 45% FYTD. This indicates that the government will be using surplus funds from the previous year and deliver higher units, as the budgeted allocation for FY20 is similar to FY19 at Rs 190bn. Since the inception of the policy, state-wise, the highest unit of houses have been constructed in West Bengal, followed by MP, UP, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh.
Under PMAY (urban), an average of 3mn units were sanctioned in the last two years; FYTD20 units sanctioned are at 1.4mn. UP and AP lead in terms of houses sanctioned.
PMGSY (road construction) – tepid progress, large quantum of surplus funds exist
The central/state government has released Rs 30/12bn FYTD which is substantially lower than the budgeted amount of Rs 190bn (centre). While this indicates a likelihood of slow progress in rural road construction, it may scale-up in the coming months as construction activity gets impacted during monsoon. The budget allocation in FY20 is 23% higher than FY19 – thus, we believe current trends should improve ahead.
There is a large surplus fund of Rs 229bn available from previous years, which can be used in case of lack of funds from the centre and state governments.
Road-completion rate is impressive at 85-98% in the last three years.
FY20 road length target of 50,000km is almost unchanged vs. target achieved in FY19, 6,898km have been constructed in FYTD20. In FY20, by state, Odisha is targeted to construct the maximum length of rural roads, followed, by Assam and Bihar.
PMFBY (crop insurance) – spend and area insured is decent
The government has paid Rs 80bn in crop premium in FYTD20. Total budgeted amount is at Rs 140bn (Rs 10bn higher than last year). State shares the same proportion as centre; 49% of the farmers insured (at 37mn), claimed benefits from this scheme for the 2019 kharif season. Claims rate was at 66% for 2018 crops.
Area insured for Kharif crop was unchanged in 2019 at 27.5mn hectares.
PMKSY (irrigation) – extended monsoon might be the reason for subdued expenditure
The spend for FY20 stood at 20% of budget allocation, which is fairly poor.
The expenditure outgo was the highest for farm ponds, followed by check dams, lifting devices and construction of tube wells.
Good execution in ‘more crop per drop’; PMKSY (water resources) is sharply lower.
PMAY – housing remains the key priority PMAY was implemented to provide housing to urban and rural poor by 2022. We examined the progress it has made FYTD20 and found that government spending is ahead in both rural and urban India. While central allocations are higher than budgeted, the state government is lagging behind by a large margin. We expect surplus funds (from previous years) to be used-up to achieve the estimated targets for FY20. Government’s focus on housing construction remains strong and has been the key trigger for real-estate demand.
Key highlights of “PMAY – Rural” data analysis: • Budgetary expenditure is faring well: Total budgetary allocation is at Rs 259bn
for FY20, of which Rs 190bn (73%) has been allocated for rural areas, almost similar to FY19 allocations. The center has released Rs 131bn FYTD20 – at 69% of the budgeted allocations. West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, and Bihar have received highest funds this financial year.
• House completion rate is decent: In the last three years, the strike rate for house completion is high at 85-90%.
• Since the inception of the policy, highest unit of houses have been constructed in
Madhya Pradesh, followed by West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh. The lowest were in Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, and Gujarat.
Key highlights of “PMAY – Urban” data analysis: • Expenditure is higher than budgeted: FYTD20, the central government has spent
Rs 93bn, exceeding the budgetary allocation of Rs 69bn by resorting to ‘extra budgetary’ resources. Uttar Pradesh received the highest central assistance amongst all states; it also has the highest project proposal consideration.
• Houses sanctioned: The government has sanctioned 9.3mn houses till date since inception (2014), with 60% of the houses under construction and 30% completed. An average of 3mn units per year were sanctioned in last two years; FYTD20 at 1.4mn. Out of the houses which are completed, 91% are occupied till date. Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of houses sanctioned, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra (forming 43% of the total houses sanctioned).
• 19,471 projects proposals are under consideration vs. 13,570 a year ago.
Monthly progress of PMAY (urban)
Mn Units Rs Bn
Houses sanctioned Houses completed Central assistance sanctioned Central assistance released Project proposal considered
11-Nov-19 9.30 2.80 1,459 579 19,471
21-Oct-19 9.07 2.80 1,425 579 19,100
13-Aug-19 8.51 2.64 1,325 518 17,605
15-Jul-19 8.10 2.57 1,260 509 17,113
27-May-19 8.10 2.57 1,260 509 16,373
24-Dec-18 6.55 1.29 1,004 337 13,570
06-Aug-18 5.38 0.83 820 282 11,226
Source: MOHUA, PhillipCapital India Research
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PMAY – Rural and urban budgetary allocation (Rs bn)
Source: Budget Document, PhillipCapital India Research
PMAY rural – houses sanctioned and completed (Mn)
Source: PMAY-G, PhillipCapital India Research
State-wise rural houses completed since inception
Source: PMAY-G, PhillipCapital India Research
116
210
312
264 259
101
161
226
199 190
15
49
86 65 69
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19RE FY20BE
PMAY Rural Urban
4.1
3.1
2.5
3.6 3.6
2.6
2.3
0.1
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20YTD
Total Sanction Completed Houses
1.4 1.3 1.3
0.9
0.7 0.7 0.7
0.5 0.4
0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Mill
ion
s
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PMAY urban – central assistance (Rs bn)
Source: PMAY-U, PhillipCapital India Research
PMAY urban – status of houses sanctioned (mn)
Source: PMAY-U, PhillipCapital India Research
0
50
100
150
200
250 Central Assistance Sanctioned Central Assistance Released
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6Houses Sanctioned Houses grounded for construction Houses Completed
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PMGSY (rural roads) – Could benefit from surplus funds The government’s PMGSY emphasizes on providing connectivity to unconnected habitations in rural areas. For FY20, the budgeted allocation is at Rs 190bn. Release of funds is weak from both the centre and state governments, possibly due to an elongated monsoon season. Going ahead, we expect progress in rural road construction and subsequently higher fund flows. Sufficient surplus funds are available under this scheme.
Key highlights from our PMGSY data analysis:
Budgetary allocation – lacking: The central/state government has released Rs 30bn/12bn FYTD which is substantially lower than the budgeted amount of Rs 190bn (centre). While this indicates a likelihood of slow progress in rural road construction, it may scale-up in the coming months as construction activity gets impacted during the monsoon. The budget allocation in FY20 is 23% higher than FY19 – thus we believe current trends should improve ahead. There is a large surplus fund of Rs 229bn available from previous years, which can be used in case of lack of funds from the centre and state governments.
• Road completion rate impressive: The road completion rate for the last three
years ranges at 85-97%. For FY20, Punjab has achieved the highest road completion rate at 47% of the target length.
• Road construction target unchanged in FY20: The target set for rural roads at 50,000km is almost similar to roads completed in FY17-19. For FYTD20, 6,898 kms have been constructed; Odisha has the highest target length, followed by Assam and Bihar. Similarly, since inception Odisha ranks first for highest cumulative target length, followed by Bihar and MP.
Budgeted allocation and transferred (Rs bn)
Source: Budget Document, PMGSY, PhillipCapital India Research
179 169
155
190
154
126
164
30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
PMGSY (Budgeted) Funds Trfd from central Govt
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State expenditure (Rs bn)
Source: PMGSY, PhillipCapital India Research
Work completion rate (%)
Source: PMGSY, PhillipCapital India Research
Target and completed length (in Km)
Source: PMGSY, PhillipCapital India Research
78
55
79
12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 YTD
PMGSY
97% 96%
85%
14%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Work completion rate
48,812 51,000
57,700
50,097 47,457 48,719 49,043
6,898
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20
Target Length Completed Length
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State-wise road construction for FY20 (in Km)
Source: PMGSY, PhillipCapital India Research
Since 2016, state-wise target length distribution (in km)
Source: PMGSY, PhillipCapital India Research
82
00
52
30
43
00
35
00
30
15
30
00
27
00
26
00
25
00
25
00
24
00
20
00
15
00
10
00
10
00
54
5
43
0
24
5
57
59
7
10
79
23
5
55
2
24
5
52
7
90
6
14
2
47
5
43
26
3
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000Target Length Completed Length
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000Target Length Completed Length
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PMFBY (crop insurance) – reasonable progress The government’s PMFBY focuses on providing insurance services to farmers for their crops. It aims at increasing the crop insurance penetration in India. Currently, 25%/30% of the total kharif/rabi area is insured; we see this as decent progress since the inception of the policy in 2016. Key highlights from PMFBY data analysis: • Budgetary spend decent: The central government has spent Rs 80bn on
premiums as on FY20 (YTD) in the kharif and rabi season. Considering the budgetary allocation for FY20BE is Rs 140bn, the center is half way through its expenditure road map.
• Premium share is equal between centre and states, marginal portion is shared by the farmers.
• Area insured declined over the years for kharif season: When the scheme was launched in 2016, the total area insured for kharif stood at 37.7mn, which has declined over the years to 27.5mn in 2019. Due to the monsoon vagaries, area insured is more for the kharif crop.
• 49% of farmers that were insured, benefited from the scheme: The scheme
benefited 18mn farmers in the 2019 kharif season out of the 37mn farmers who were insured. In the rabi season, 65% of the farmers insured claimed benefits from the scheme.
Budgetary allocation (Rs bn)
Source: Budget Document, PhillipCapital India Research
30
111
94
130 140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19RE FY20BE
PMFBY Budgeted number
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Area insured (mn hectares)
Source: PMFBY, PhillipCapital India Research
Farmers insured and benefited (mn)
Source: PMFBY, PhillipCapital India Research
37.7
18.6
34.1
27.6
19.5
27.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Kharif Rabi Kharif Kharif Rabi Kharif
2016 2016-17 2017 2018 2018-2019 2019
40.3
17.1
34.8
30.6
21.8
37.1
10.7
3.6
13.8
20.5
14.2
18.1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Kharif Rabi Kharif Kharif Rabi Kharif
2016 2016-17 2017 2018 2018-2019 2019
Total Farmers Insured Total farmers benefited
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PMKSY (irrigation) – lagging behind PMKSY was launched to improve farm productivity with the aim of ensuring every farm gets water – by extending the coverage of irrigation. For FY20 (YTD):
Budgetary spend poor: While Budgetary allocation increased by 17% (Rs 97bn) in FY20BE, the budgetary spend stood at 20% of allocation, with just Rs 2bn released for water resources and Rs 18bn for the ‘more crop per drop scheme’.
Spend allocation: The expenditure outgo was the highest for farm ponds, followed by check dams, lifting devices for efficient use of water, and construction of tube wells.
Budgetary allocation (Rs bn)
Source: Budget Document, PhillipCapital India Research
Ayushman Bharat – coverage targets achieved Ayushman Bharat (PMJAY) was launched in September 2018 with an aim to help economically weaker sections in need of healthcare. It offers a cover of Rs 0.5mn/year for every family. In a span of a year, it has made good progress in terms of coverage and benefits claimed by the cardholders. Key highlights from PMJAY data analysis: • Budgetary expenditure: The government has spent Rs 75bn on the treatment of
Aayushman Bharat beneficiaries within one year of its inception. For FYTD20, 60% of the budgetary allocation has been spent. Out of Rs 75bn spent, Rs 46bn was through private hospitals, and Rs 29bn through public hospitals.
• A total of 4.65mn people were treated in the hospitals. • Most of the claims were seen in the state of Tamil Nadu, Haryana, and Andhra
Pradesh.
• E-card coverage rate is excellent: With the aim of covering 107.4mn households, the government has issued 103mn e-cards (till 22
nd September 2019). The pace of
implementation has been exceptional; within just one year of the scheme being launched cards are issued to 96% of the population eligible for the scheme, according to 2011 census. Top states in terms of e-card issuances are Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, and Rajasthan.
• Hospitals empanelled: 18,236 hospitals have been empanelled all over India with
53% of them private, and 47% public. Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Kerala have been the leading states to provide hospitalization (per lakh beneficiary – 1 lakh = 100,000). Most number of empanelled beds (per 1,000 beneficiaries) were in the state of Goa, Haryana and Tamil Nadu.
Budgetary allocation (Rs bn)
Source: Budget Document, PhillipCapital India Research
Key metrics Metric Public Private Total
Hospitals 8,571 9,665 18,236
Hospital admissions (Mn) 2.18 2.47 4.65
Amount for Hospital Admissions (Rs Bn) 28 46 75
Source: PMJAY, PhillipCapital India Research
24
64
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FY19RE FY20BE
PMJAY
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