GOVST – ETOOFS summary Action – Review obs requirements database OSCAR (http://www.wmo- sat.info/oscar/) Call for agency/centre submissions => Guimei Liu Action – Statement of guidance Call for agency/centre submissions => Guimei Liu Action – Guide for operational ocean forecasting Call for content writers => Fraser Davidson Expert review => Fraser Davidson Action - Operational CLASS4 metrics Drafting a discussion paper on sustainment/metrics => Gary/Andy Action – Fukushima/MH370/Oil spiil response - Engage in the MH370 review servicing - Coordination of a catalogue of products => Marina/Pierre - Leverage from the CLASS1 project Action – Coordination with IICWG (ETOOFS and GOVST identified)
Transcript
GOVST – ETOOFS summary
Action – Review obs requirements database OSCAR (http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/)Call for agency/centre submissions => Guimei Liu
Action – Statement of guidanceCall for agency/centre submissions => Guimei Liu
Action – Guide for operational ocean forecastingCall for content writers => Fraser DavidsonExpert review => Fraser Davidson
Action - Operational CLASS4 metrics Drafting a discussion paper on sustainment/metrics => Gary/Andy
Action – Fukushima/MH370/Oil spiil response- Engage in the MH370 review servicing- Coordination of a catalogue of products => Marina/Pierre- Leverage from the CLASS1 project
Action – Coordination with IICWG (ETOOFS and GOVST identified)
GOVST – ETOOFS summary
Discussion paper on enhanced collaboration
Good discussion and some clarification of roles was achievedSome questions remain
Recommendation of the way forward
Action – Minute the meeting and amend the discussion paper (Kirsten/Long/Gary)
Action – Circulate the discussion paper to GOVST and ETOOFS members invite submissions/comments
Action – Joint discussionGOVST – Co-chairs and PatronsJCOMM – Co-President, ETOOFS-Chair/Co-chairIOC representative, WMO?OUTCOME – Recommendation/Agreement on changes
JCOMM Expert Team for Operational Ocean Forecast Systems
Gary BrassingtonChair
Fraser DavidsonCo-chair
Long JiangSecretariat
GOVST-V, 13-17 October, 2014, Beijing, China
GODAE – Experiment to demonstrate OOFS is feasible
Post-GODAE
GOVST – Continue to drive R&D underpinning OOFS
ETOOFS – Intergovernmental team responsible for driving standardisation and integration of OOFS within the intergovernmental framework
GOVST and ETOOFS relationshipMOU, Joint statementUnder review in the context of GOVST strategyJointly responsible for the end-to-end coordination of OOFS
Background
Weather forecasting is coordinated through the WMOFacilitate worldwide cooperationNetwork of National agencies, officesInternational coordination of observing requirementsInternational coordination of observing systemsInternational coordination of research and developmentStandardisation of services
MandateNational and international drivers for weather forecasting servicesUser pull is well developed and underpins the mandateExtended to hydrology, climate and
Intergovernmental process - WMO
Management, sustainable development and protection of marine environmentPromote international cooperationAcquire knowledge about the ocean and coastal areasCoordinate programmes in RESEARCH, services and CAPACITYCollaborate with other international organisations
MandateFocal point within UN for ocean mattersInternational law
Intergovernmental process - IOC
Joint commission of WMO and IOCTechnical expertiseInternational coordination of OMM observations, data management and servicesCombining the capabilities of the ocean and met community
MandateWMO and IOC
Intergovernmental process - JCOMM
Real-
tim
e s
yst
em
IOC WMO
JCOMM-MAN
SFSPA OPA
ETOOFS ETWS
The JCOMM family tree
ETMSS
ETOOFS + GOVST
The right starting point is to look at the whole end-to-end problem that we share and agree as a community how “best” to address that total problem.
The GOVST-V strategic review (Fraser) is an opportunity to review/refine/change… later in the agenda but only 15 mins.
ETOOFS – role/responsibilities
• Promote best practices for OOFS
• Promote standardisation and quality of downstream services
• Coordination across the intergovernmental structure for OOFS
• PA’s, IOC/WMO
• Coordination of monitoring the quality of OOFS and service
• Coordinate/collate international stakeholder feedback for R&D
• Build capacity
ETOOFS workplan (2012-2017)
ETOOFS workplan (2012-2017)
Workplan leadership• The guide
– Fraser Davidson
• Performance monitoring– Gary Brassington (Frank Bub)/Andrew Ryan
• Observational requirements– Guimei Liu
• Ocean extremes monitoring– Gary Brassington (response to WMO GF climate service)
• Emergency response– Pierre Daniel/Marina Tonani
• Seasonal requirements– Response to WMO GF climate service– Agreed to distribute amongst other workplans
• Capacity building– Shiro Ishizaki
The Guide
• Change in leadership Alistair Sellar => Fraser Davidson• Content writers workshop, 8-10th Sep 2014, Paris• The scope and objectives have been refined• Guide structure is close to complete
– Not a manual of R&D like “Operational oceanography in the 21st century”– A guide of systems and practices
• drive standardisation and best practices
• Provide a toolkit for new agencies/centres
• Chapter content requires targeted completion– Andrew Ryan, tasked to draft a chapter on CLASS4– E.g., sea-ice, atmospheric fluxes– Requests to individuals within the GOVST community
• Review of draft– Expert review for a first complete draft– National agency review
Performance monitoring
• Transition/maturation of CLASS4 to operational common practice• Alistair was facilitating linkage with IV-TT (Andrew Ryan has agreed
to facilitate this link)• Coordination of metrics and dissemination
• Progress– Promoting its adoption and change management– Andrew Ryan contributing chapter content for “the Guide”– Action to review this as part of “the Guide”
• Requested Andrew Ryan to draft a discussion paper for operationalisation (hopefully available for IV-TT) - scope
– Requirements/agreements for the server– Publication of metrics, criterion– Change management
Observational requirements• Updating requirements
– OSCAR – Observing system capability analysis and review tool• http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/• Focal point: Guimei
– Actions:• National agency/center submissions for change/justification => Guimei• IICWG review database and advise of changes and supporting justification• Collation/Redistribution to POC’s/Review/Final submission• CONFIDENCE LEVEL => Request for OSE-TT evidence
• Review of Statement of Guidance– http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/GOS-RRR.html– http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/SOG/SoG-Ocean.pdf– Actions required as per above (please identify)
• Need clearer linkage with OSE-TT– Coordinate publication of impact statements => JCOMM/OPA– Promote OSE-TT activities within JCOMM– GOVST/Patrons promote JCOMM/Integovernmental role
Scope: Global and coastal, sea-ice, atmospheric fluxes
Other workplans/new activities• Extreme monitoring
– Response to climate response driver of WMO– Use of reanalyses to identify and track ocean extremes– Requires GOVST input (not clear which TT might facilitate this)
• Emergency response - Fukushima– Primary activity is between ETMSS and ETOOFS– Coordination of R&D from GOVST is required
• Seasonal forecasting linkage– Initial discussion, more required to determine recommendations– Links
• observational requirements (OSE-TT already has created these)
• Routine monitoring (potential but more activity with WMO group)
– Coordination with GOVST required
• Capacity building– Some actions: East Africa workshops/Indian Ocean proposal development– Training modules is due (from summer school material)
• Sea ice services
OOFS ETSI
International Ice Charting Working Group – letter
“IICWG has successfully worked for the past 13 years as a forum for the operational ice services”
“A significant activity of the IICWG involves applied research and development in models to support operational ice forecasting. We have a sub-working group on Data Assimilation that holds regular workshops”
“Obviously, sea ice modeling is intimately inter-connected with both atmospheric and ocean modeling. While the ice modeling community is relatively well-connected with the numerical weather forecasting community, it is less so with the ocean forecasting community. This issue was discussed at the recent IICWG meeting in October 2012 and prompted this letter.”
OOFS ETSI
International Ice Charting Working Group – letter
“We think that your Expert Team could be instrumental in closing this gap. Specifically, it would be very helpful if the ETOOFS could provide us with guidance on what information the sea ice community could provide to further your work in operational ocean forecasting, including development of “The Guide to Operational Oceanographic Forecasting Systems of the World”. This could be a first step in promoting a closer interaction between the ice and ocean modeling communities.”
POC ET tasks - Vasily Smolyanitsky, Chair, JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice ([email protected])
POC DA R&D – Tom Carrieres, Chair, IICWG Data Assimilation WG ([email protected])
OOFS ETSI
ETOOFS – draft response“As you suggest in your letter there are indeed several points of ourworkplan for which Vasily's expertise and that of your group couldcontribute. These include:The Guide - lead by Fraser DavidsonObservation Requirements - lead by Guimei Liu Performance monitoring -jointly coordinated by myself and Andy Ryan.”
“There are two further points of linkage that I would recommend be made withGOVST.The first is a task team for short- to medium-range coupled prediction forwhich I am a co-chair. The second is a newly forming task team for data assimilation which is being chaired by Matt Martin. Matt would likely welcome linkages to the IICWG data assimilation WG.”
Linkage to the Polar Year
Other new priorities• Consensus,OCF,multi-model ensemble
– Framework/agreements for sharing products for emergencies– GOVST coordination of the R&D
JCOMM ETOOFS and GOVSTdiscussion
Based on a discussion paper
ET-OOFS and GODAE OceanView
Enhanced Collaboration Options
In Response to GOV Review 2013
GOVST-V, 13-17 October, 2014, Beijing, China
Common shared goal
“international coordination for the end-to-end transition of R&D through to quality OFS services to meet stakeholder requirements with a feedback evaluation of the problem and solution to reset the R&D priorities”
Collated tasks WMO/IOC:Facilitate worldwide cooperationNetwork of National agencies, officesInternational coordination of observing requirementsInternational coordination of observing systemsInternational coordination of research and developmentStandardisation of servicesAcquire knowledge about the ocean and coastal areasCoordinate programmes in capacity
Cooperation
Two groups require an effective structure to work well :•A shared core vision (agreed by both parents also)
•Managed autonomy to evolve and respond to new problems
•Clarification of the separation of roles
•Coordination between the two groups for less defined areas
•Clarity over hierarchy, peer-to-peer or service-provider
•Clarity over governance, management and authority
•Review of this process
Structural differences
ETOOFS
•Hierarchical parenting WMO/IOC=>JCOMM-MAN=>SFSPA
•Intergovernmental period
•Secretariat, Jiang Long
•Membership formal process/limited by funding (13 members), operational practitioners
•Workplan approved and monitored by JCOMM-MAN
•Work coordinated by Experts, drawing on member states, GOVST
•Outcomes/activities published through JCOMM
Structural differences
GOVST
•Patrons group (weak link to JCOMM-MAN)
•Not aligned with the Intergovernmental period
•GOV office, Kirsten Wilmer Becker
•Membership voluntary/open, entry-level through to expert R&D
•Workplan approved by patrons
•Work conducted through Task Teams
Previous arrangements
Memorandum of understanding
Joint statement
Some successes
Practical measures of cooperation :•Capacity building – GOV summer school 2010 •Performance monitoring – transitioning GOVST CLASS4 intercomparisons to a framework for broad adoption of operators•Observational requirements – engagement with the OSE-TT to provide the evidence and statements of impact to underpin the observational requirements. •The vision of “the guide” was for members of GOV to be contributors and reviewers and expected to be taken further during GOVST-V
Examples where the structure is not successful•The Fukushima disaster, requiring coordination of the R&D component•Establishing supporting linkages with seasonal community to underpin ET-OOFS workplan•Establishing linkages with the sea-ice R&D to underpin the linkage with ETSI/IICWG•Extreme monitoring to respond to WMO climate response
How do we facilitate a response within GOVST, volunteers and Task team structure?
How are other groups organised?
ETWCH
Smaller scale, combine GOVST and ETOOFS functions
WGNE
Larger scale
JSC/CAS Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (analogous to GOVST)
ETOOFS activities are separated from R&D
GOV task teams typically also separate groups from WGNE
Clear goal to merge weather forecasting into earth systems including ocean, waves, sea-ice as well as the land-surface. (SMRCP linkage)
Identified issues – non exhaustive
• The areas of responsibility of GOV and ET-OOFS need clearer separation.
• GOV to be clearly identified with scientific leadership and advice and ET-OOFS with responsibility for standards and operations of ocean forecasting systems including routine activities as indicated by GOV Review 2013
• The Panel recommends that reporting lines from GOV to OOPC and JCOMM should be better defined and include the ability for both bodies to seek advice, and make requests for action from GOV.
• The patrons group should facilitate informing national agencies of key findings from routine monitoring of models and observing systems to assist in decision/policy making.
• The patrons group should also promote operational centers participation in routine real-time model intercomparisons and in coordinating routine observing system monitoring approaches through collaboration with GOV/ET-OOFS members
Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST continue current activities
• Continue to transfer proven model intercomparisons through to sustained operational performance monitoring metrics for endorsement of member states
• Continue to establish the underpinning evidence for observational requirements and impacts to provide the rigor and evidence for formalised observational requirements within the intergovernmental process
• Contribute to the content and review process of the OOFS Guide Book to document current practices and drive best practice and standardization.
• ET-OOFS to continue to inform GOVST on its workplans and other requirements for response within JCOMM of relevance to GOVST response
• GOVST to continue to inform ET-OOFS of its workplans and establish clarity on its capacity to respond to JCOMM requirements
• GOVST is the recommend entry point for countries looking to get started with building systems for operational oceanography. New countries wanting to transition systems into operations will be referred to the ET-OOFS Guide when available to guide practices. ET-OOFS requires a path to permit newly established centres to engage in the future decisions on best practices for common adoption.
Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST enhance current activities
• ET-OOFS and GOV review and monitor their projects to ensure they identify activities that need to be transferred between the groups. ET-OOFS projects where R&D is needed, would then be brought to GOV for discussion as research projects.
• Underpinning policy guidance is required for the Patrons/JCOMM-MAN to clarify areas that are rejected by the respective group and resolve constraints
• For example the ET-OOFS project on Ocean Extreme Monitoring was presented to GOVST to seek a response from GOVST but did not receive a response. Similarly for the Fukushima disaster.
• The mis-alignment of the workplan formation between the two groups is an obstacle to the flexibility to respond.
• The structure of the drivers at the Patrons and JCOMM-MAN level requires clear direction for GOVST and ET-OOFS to coordinate
• Applicable ET-OOFS projects where GOVST is required to contribute, a process is required to establish new workplans as joint or sub-project tasks. (example intercomparison GOVST IV-TT and ET-OOFS workplan).
Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST enhance current activities
Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST enhance current activities
• GOVST survey trends and new directions in the R&D and inform ET-OOFS/JCOMM to prepare for transition and standardisation activities
• Consider joint ET-OOFS / GOV meetings including symposiums and stakeholder forums
• ET-OOFS include some focus on the service desk requirements for operational ocean forecast systems (Note that this was in the original ToR but was removed in the JCOMM-4 by JCOMM-MAN/SFSPA)
• Consider JCOMM-MAN rep joining Patrons Group. This would help with ET-OOFS/ GOV liason, codifying GOV linkage to JCOMM, and better aligning ET-OOFS and GOV effort. Furthermore would help GOV prediction system uptake by various JCOMM groups (Ice prediction, ice berg drift prediction …).
• ET-OOFS to modify it’s work plan to insert preparation for a JCOMM user assessment group of ocean forecast systems (I.e. GOV research and development) for 2017.
Options – Formal tie between ET-OOFS and GOVST
• Evolve GOVST Patrons group to a joint GOVST/ET-OOFS Patrons Group inclusive of JCOMM-MAN/SFSPA and user stakeholders.
• Rationale: The Patrons members have an end to end interest (Research, Development and Operations) for ocean forecasting capacity. This comprises both ET-OOFS and GOV objectives.
• Provide access to additional resources to facilitate and drive responses to priority areas and new and ad hoc initiatives
• Patrons group ensures that ET-OOFS and GOVST areas of responsibility are defined and policy surrounding joint, sub-project and authorisation/endorsement and management with competing priorities
• Consider joint ET-OOFS / GOV meetings including symposiums and stakeholder forums
Options – Formalise GOVST within intergovernmental research program
• Establish GOVST as a sub-group under WCRP (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/) to drive ocean prediction within the earth system framework.
