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Grading of Construction & Real Estate Entities CIDC & ICRA Ltd.
Grading of Construction & Real Estate Entities
CIDC & ICRA Ltd.
Presentation Structure
• Real Estate and Construction - Engines for growth
• Concerns
• Efficiency Enhancement
• Need for risk assessment tools …
… (Grading)
Grading of Real Estate Entities
Real Estate and Construction Sectors in India
Real estate and construction: contribute 10-11% to the GDP
Construction - Engine for economic growth - high multiplier effect
Organised Real Estate and Housing development - Key component of country’s infrastructure development
Adoption of practices often do not support good quality asset creation
------ While funding needs to be channelised to the right projects, benchmarking quality and efficiency of development is the need of the hour.
Growth in Construction Sector and GDP (GDP at factor cost and constant prices)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
GDP from Construction Total GDP
Concerns
Unstructured regulatory frame work leading to ineffective entry barriers
Inefficiencies
Lack of transparency
Credit flow to the sector can be widened
Value to the customer needs to be enhanced by mitigating these concerns
---------- Grading a facilitator
Grading of Real Estate and Construction entities
The Rationale
Tools for Choice
Differentiating Transparent Mechanism
ICRA option
About ICRA
Set Up in I991 as a Credit Rating agency
Promoted by leading Financial institutions and Banks. Moody’s Investors Service is currently ICRA’s largest shareholder
Diversified into Industry research, Performance Gradings, Advisory Services
Completed more than 4000 assignments across various sectors
About CIDC
• Planning Commission, Government of India along with Construction Industry have set up the Construction Industry Development Council (CIDC) to bring about the re-organisation of the Indian Construction Industry. Shri. G. V. Ramakrishna and Dr Uddesh Kohli are Chairman Emeritus of CIDC. Shri Chander Verma, Director, Continental Constructions Ltd. is the present Chairman.
• CIDC is now the Apex Nodal Agency for all types of construction and related activities in India. Construction is an activity which forms a major part of the capital expenditure of many sectors (and their corresponding Ministries). Founded by the Planning Commission, Government of India, it has amongst its 87 members.
• The Council started functioning from August, 1996 and has taken up several important projects related to the vital issues of the Construction Industry
Who are being Graded ?
Real Estate entitiesThe Real Estate Project
The Real Estate Developer
Construction Company or the Contractor
How would Grading help?Broadly…
Encourage transparency, objectivity and standardization
Enabling the Developers to benchmark themselves against competition
Provide effective entry barriers against inefficient operators
An input for decision making
Facilitate pricing and credit decisions
More specifically for the market participants ….
… How would Grading help?
Benefits of Grading Developer(s)/project:
Investors (end user / buyer of property / relevant stakeholder):Aware of the risks involved in the developer’s ability to deliver as per specified terms,
quality parameters, and,Transfer of ownership on time
Facilitate flow of institutional funds:A scientifically graded project would lend itself to a more accurate and reliable
estimation of risks thereby increasing the confidence of the lenders
… How would Grading help?
Facilitate effective alliances:
In real estate ventures through independent and objective opinions on the capability of concerned entities (such entities may include joint venture partners / participant in any Special Purpose Vehicle)
Facilitate positioning:
Especially a developer / project in an unorganised market
Moreover, grading would facilitate the overall growth of the real estate sector by providing the developers with incentives to conform to fair trade practices and legal requirements
… How would Grading help?Benefits of Grading of Construction Companies / Contractors:
The project owner / project developer:
Select the appropriate entity and evaluate project completion risks
The contractor or the construction company:
Facilitates acceptance while highlighting his competence and eliminating unhealthy undercutting or unrealistic bidding
Facilitates funding and lowers its cost of funds
… How would Grading help?
Lenders:
Independent and unbiased input to assess risk associated with the construction entity
Joint venture / joint venture partner:
Objective understanding of techno-financial capability for participating in joint ventures / Special Purpose Vehicles
The ultimate beneficiary is the project itself, which would gain from the smooth flow of work through the deployment of compatible participants and availability of lower cost of funds arising out of efficient availability of credit.
What do we grade them on ?
The Real Estate ProjectProject Strength
Price Risk – relative price of thefinal productResource Risk – adequacy andappropriateness of the resourcesmobilisedQuality & Non-ConformanceRiskProject execution Risk – relatesto capability of relevant agenciesinvolved in project executionTransfer of Ownership Risk
Permitting Risk – risks arising out ofnon-availability / delays in relevantpermitsPolitical RiskSite Risk – location and availabilityof infrastructureInterest Rate RiskPenalty Clause – extent ofprotection to the customersCompletion Risk
Business Risk
What do we grade them on ?
Financial Risk- Cash Flow vs obligations : for project development and debt servicing- Developer’s financial position and flexibility to support uninterrupted project development
Management Risk- Track record of the developer- Promoter profile
The Real Estate ProjectProject Strength
The Grading Symbols
The Real Estate Project:
RT1 Very strong project. The prospects of successful implementation of thereal estate project and transfer of ownership as per terms are highest. Theproject risk factors are lowest.
RT2+RT2RT2-
Strong project. The prospects of successful implementation of the realestate project and transfer of ownership as per terms are high. The projectrisk factors are low.
RT3+RT3RT3-
Moderate project. The prospects of successful implementation of thereal estate project and transfer of ownership as per terms are moderate.The project risk factors are moderate.
RT4+RT4RT4-
Inadequate project. The prospects of successful implementation of thereal estate project and transfer of ownership as per terms are inadequate.The project risk factors are high.
RT5 Weak project. The prospects of successful implementation of the realestate project and transfer of ownership as per terms are poor. The projectrisk factors are highest.
What do we grade them on ?
The Real Estate Developer
Business Risk• Project development track record &
Market position• Project composition – On going
Projects• Adherence to time schedules and
local norms for development• Project Quality Record – past projects
and on-going projects. quality ofentities deployed in execution.
• Project management capability• Contractual clarity with customers• Transfer of ownership / clarity of title
in projects• Customer satisfaction
What do we grade them on ?
The Real Estate Developer
Financial Risk• Profitability• Leverage• Financial Flexibility• Cash flow vs obligations Contingent Liabilities
Management Risk• Management Quality – promoters
and management profile
The Grading SymbolsThe Real Estate Developer
DR1: Very strong project development capacity. The prospects of development ofreal estate projects as per plan are best and the ability to transfer ownership asper terms is highest.
DR2+: Strong project development capacity. The prospects of development ofDR2 real estate projects as per plan and the ability to transfer ownership as perDR2- terms are high but not as high as DR1.
DR3+: Moderate project development capacity. The prospects of development ofDR3 real estate projects as per plan and the ability to transfer ownership as per termsDR3- are moderate. Project development capacity can be affected moderately
changes in the real estate sector prospects.
DR4+: Inadequate project development capacity. The prospects of development ofDR4 real estate projects as per plan and the ability to transfer ownership as per termsDR4- are inadequate. Project development capacity can be affected severely by
changes in real estate sector prospects.
DR5: Weak project development capacity.The prospects of development of realestate projects as per plan and the ability to transfer ownership as per terms are poor.
What do we grade them on ?
The Construction Company or Contractor
Business Risk• Market Position & sectoral concentration• Ability to be an integrator• Project Quality Record• Project management & design systems• Extent & quality of subcontracting• Equipment Base• Human Resources• Management Quality• Client Category & diversity• Labour relations & Disputes
Financial Risk• Profitability• Leverage• Financial Flexibility• Liquidity• Liquidated Damage exposure• Contingent Liabilities• Insurance cover• Cash flow vs Obligations
The Grading SymbolsThe Contractor
CR1 Very strong contract execution capacity. The prospects of timely completion of projectswithout cost over-runs is best and the ability to pay liquidated damages for non-conformance withcontract are highest.
CR2+CR2CR2-
Strong contract execution capacity. The prospects of timely completion of projectswithout cost over-runs and the ability to pay liquidated damages for non-conformance are high butnot as high as CR1
CR3+CR3CR3-
Moderate contract execution capacity. The prospects of timely completion of projectswithout cost over-runs and the ability to pay liquidated damages for non-conformance aremoderate. Contract execution capacity can be affected moderately by changes in the constructionsector prospects.
CR4+CR4CR4-
Inadequate contract execution capacity. The prospects of timely completion of projectswithout cost over-runs and the ability to pay liquidated damages for non-conformance areinadequate. Contract execution capacity can be affected severely by changes in the constructionsector prospects.
CR5 Weak contract execution capacity. The prospects of timely completion of projects withoutcost over-runs and the ability to pay liquidated damages for non-conformance are poor.
A Case Study
Real Estate Project (P)
Synopsis
Developer India Ltd (DIL), a developer with over Rs 50 croreturnover, incorporated in 1995, undertaking a residential complex project P worth Rs 50 crore.
A Case StudyReal Estate Project (P)
Step 1: DIL submits mandate to ICRA for project P
Step 2: ICRA requests information through questionnaires
Key information requested includes
I) Audited financial results (incl group companies)ii) Details of past and on-going projectsiii) Details of project P in terms of location,cost,scope, duration, land agreements, progress status, current bookings etciv) Terms of commitment to the customersv) Details of contractors and consultants associated with the project/planned to be deployedvi) Funding profile of the project - means of finance and planned expenditurevii) Organisation details
A Case Study
A Case StudyReal Estate Project (P)
Step 3: Project Site Visit-
• To assess the land / site status, local infrastructure, • To determine the effectiveness of project management• To assess quality practices actually adopted
Work practices looked at include
• Nature of executing entities deployed• Quality assurance systems• Project management and supervision
Real Estate Project (P)
Step 4: Assessment of uncertainty associated with project completion
• Identification of critical activities and extent of mitigation of uncertainties pertaining to these activities
• Land Acquisition• Building plan approval• Foundation• Superstructure• Services • Finishing• Completion Certificate• Facility management
A Case Study
A Case StudyReal Estate Project (P)
Assessment of uncertainty associated with project completion
• Expected activity time Te = ( To + 4Tm + Tp )/ 6Where To & Tp are optimistic and pessimistic times, Tm : most likely time
• Standard deviation = ( To - Tp )/ 6• Critical path evaluation• Expected project duration corresponding to 50% probability : sum of Te on critical path• Variance of project probability distribution : sum of Variance of Te• Probability of completing the project in x months is equal to the area under the normal curve from -∞ to x
Real Estate Project (P)
Step 5: Financial Analysis (eg. Cash flow of the project, developer’s key financial indicators)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37
months
cror
es
Inflow Outflow Cumulative
Developer’s financial flexibility to support the deficit for uninterrupted project development is assessed. Adequacy of cash flow for servicing future obligations is essential
A Case Study
Real Estate Project (P)
Step 6: Customer feed back & other secondary information
Step 7: Deliberations
Step 8: Grade assignment
A Case Study
The Grading Process
The Steps :
Site Visits
Discussions withManagement
Grading Committee
Analysis & Report
Grade Assignment
4 – 6 weeks
Feedback from Customersand Information fromSecondary Sources
Team of Analysts
The Grading Process
• Traditionally Grading is asked for by lender / investor / customer / JV partner / developer itself / any other stakeholder
• Grading request / mandate to ICRA by Real Estate Project Developer for
•Grading of a specific Project / Projects or
•Grading of the concerned entity as a Developeror
• Grading of a specific project/projects as well as grading of the Developer as a whole
• Interactive process
Grading of Real Estate entities published include...
Real Estate DevelopersName of the Entity Location Grade
Bengal Ambuja Housing Development Limite Kolkata DR1Bengal Ambuja Metro Development Limited Kolkata DR1Parsvnath Developers Limited Delhi DR3+Eldeco Infrastructure & Properties Ltd Delhi DR2
Real Estate ProjectsName of the Project Developed By Location Grade
Hiland Park Phase II Calcutta Metropolitan Group Ltd Kolkata RT2+Millenium Phase I Brigade Enterprises Pvt Ltd Bangalore RT2+Hiland Park Phase I Calcutta Metropolitan Group Kolkata RT2Westwind Right Address Projects Ltd Kolkata RT2ATS Greens - Phase II ATS Infrastructure Limited Noida RT2-Akshay Colony Suresh Enterprises Limited Hubli RT2-ATS Greens Village ATS Infrastructure Limited Noida RT2International Convention Centre-Ph I ICC Realty (I) Pvt Ltd Pune RT2-Golden Nest Ph XI-XIV Sonam Builders Thane RT3+Infinity Project Infinity Infotech Parks Ltd Kolkata RT2
……more are in progress
Example
Cut off grade as specified in the Bidding Document - CR2-
Bid submitted by the Contractors.
L1109.44L51140.96CR1(v) E
L2109.61L41130.97CR1-(iv) D
L4109.89L21110.99CR2(iii) C
L3109.76L31120.98CR2+(ii) B
L5110.00L11101CR2-(i) A
Lowest EffectivePrice Lakhs
Status StatusQuoted Price Lakhs
Moderating Factor
Holding Grade
Contractor
Major Projects Looked at in course of CIDC-ICRA Real Estate and Construction Grading schemes
REAL ESTATE & URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE
Joint sector and Pvt sector housing projects in Kolkata
Mass Housing cum commercial complex in Kolkata (19 lakh sqft)Joint sector commercial-entertainment-residential complex in Kolkata (5.5 lakh sqft)
Convention Centre including shpping and office complex in Pune (4.8 lakh sqft)Residential Township with commercial facilities in Hubli (10.4 lakh sqft)
Commercial complexes in Gurgaon (2 - 4 lakh sqft)
Mass housing cum commercial project in Ghaziabad (33 lakh sqt)
Housing Projects in Bangalore, Mumbai, Noida, Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai, HyderabadMass Housing project in Mumbai
Software Park in Maharashtra.
Software Park in Chennai
Software Complex in Pune
Petrochemical Research Facility in Gujarat
Water Supply schemes in Maharashtra and Karnataka
…. Major Projects Looked at in course of CIDC-ICRA Real Estate and Construction Grading schemes
Roads & bridges
Strengthening and widening of 31.7 km existing two lane road and construction oftwo additional lanes for a State Highway In Gujarat
Strengthening and four-laning of 22.9 km two lane road in Gujarat
Construction of 1.026 km*11.1 m wide bridge and viaduct
Bridge on river YamunaWidening to 4/6 lanes and strenghtening of existing 2 lanes carriageway in the stateof Andhra Pradesh
Construction of a new 4 lane highway in Andhra Pradesh and strengthening andwidening of the existing 2 lane stretch including a major bridge
Concrete pavement involving widening to 4/6 lanes and upgrading of the existing 2lane road in West Bengal
Rehabilitation and upgrading incl. 4/6 laning of 63 km carriageway in Rajasthan (Rs.151 crore)
Widening of 4/6 lanes and upgrading of the existing 2 lane road, flyover and roadover bridges in Andhra Pradesh
… Major Projects Looked at in course of CIDC-ICRA Real Estate and Construction Grading schemes
Power
Govt and private sector hydroelectric projects in Himachal PradeshHydro Power project in Jammu and KashmirAtomic power project in MaharashtraThermal power station in Andhra PradeshPower plant in Chennai
Ports
Dry Dock at MumbaiJetty and associated pipeline in Andhra Pradesh
Oil & gas
Refineries in Gujarat, Maharashtra and AssamLNG terminal in Maharashtra
Would the verdict be fair?
CIDCICRA Factor
IndependenceResearchConsistencyTransparencyGround Level Realities
Grading Committee
GuidanceExperienceKnowledge
Thank You
