Report Background
This report presents a summary of the current trends and research in the
grain foods category and references the following GLNC materials…
• 2017 GLNC Consumption Study
• 2017 GLNC Snack Bar Audit
• 2017 GLNC Bread Audit
• 2016 GLNC Breakfast Cereal Audit
• GLNC weekly Media Monitoring insights
• Global FMCG trends insights
Overview
1. Australian Grain Consumption 2017
2. The Trends: Plant Based
3. Good Carbs, Bad Carbs
4. Snackification
5. Australian Grains on Supermarket
Shelves: GLNC Audits 2016-17
6. Grains in the Media
7. Summary
Australian Grain Consumption: 2011-2017
Overall we’ve seen positive movement in the grains category between 2014 and 2017. Although
consumption levels haven’t changed considerably in the last 3 years, the fact we’ve now
observed a halt in the decline in serves of grain foods eaten every day is encouraging¹.
The split between consumption of core and non-core grain foods is consistent with 2014.
2011 2014 2017
Avg daily serves per person 8.43 5.89 5.79
% consumers 95.6% 99.9% 98.5%
Avg daily serves per consumer 9.13 6.36 6.21
3.94
1.86
Core Grain Foods
Non Core Grain Foods 2014 – 1.89
2014 – 4.01
Australian Grain Consumption: 2011-2017
Changing attitudes to grains signal a turnaround in consumer perception of the grains category
with fewer Australians now limiting grains in 2017. But there is still work to be done…
60% in 2014
47% in 2017
Plant Based: The Trend
The trend for plant based foods has gained significant traction in the past few years and both grains
and legumes feature in this growth, especially in product innovation. Showing no sign of slowing
down, increasing innovation and plant based claims are indicators of this growing trend. Thanks to
the International Year of Pulses in 2016 and a number of well-known modern chefs elevating the
humble legume, we’re now seeing increased consumer awareness of their versatility and excellent
nutritional profiles. Legumes are now appearing in all sorts of traditional grain based foods,
including breakfast cereals, snack bars and pasta as well as smoothies, savoury snacks and bliss
balls. More consumers are adopting a mostly plant based or Flexitarian style diet due to the many
health benefits and considerable evidence behind this style of eating …
• Following a plant-based dietary pattern - a diet which is rich in fruit, vegetables and whole grains -
may lower the risk of developing type 2 diabetes² and cardiovascular disease³¯6 by around 20-
25%7.
• Legumes in particular, offer their own benefits, being higher in protein than most other plant foods
and providing an economical source of protein8.
Plant Based: Who & How?
The plant based trend is so far mostly confined to ‘lifestyle’ consumers9, accounting for around
30% of the population who are among the most health aware and who are keen to be the first
to align themselves with new trends. Key sub-trends driving the plant based category include…
1. Alternative protein -both whole grains and
legumes are increasingly being used in combination and alone as a substitute
for animal protein eg plant based ‘meats’
2. Reformulation - many everyday foods are combining grains and legumes or using
legumes alone to boost protein content eg pasta, breads etc
3. New and innovative ingredients - promoting high
plant protein content eg lupin flakes and flours etc
Gold & Green Foods Pulled Oats, Finland
San Remo Pulse Pasta, Australia
Baker’s Life Low Carb Bread, Australia
Freedom Foods Muesli, Australia
TLC Lupin Flakes, Australia
Plant Based: Media
We’ve seen an increasing number of articles purporting the benefits of a plant based diet over the last 12
months, but most notably, the recent influx of favourable media surrounding the Mediterranean diet has also
helped raise the profile of grains and legumes as healthy plant based foods. Articles covering the Mediterranean
diet in particular have linked this lifestyle to reduced risk of dementia, depression, prostate cancer and acid reflux,
alongside boosting cognitive function, mental health and overall wellbeing.
Plant Based: The Opportunities
There are a couple of key areas driving the plant based category which present opportunities
for manufacturers…
• Snacking - recent advances in food technology are allowing development of a variety of plant
based ingredients including sprouted grains and legumes. Snacking offers huge potential as a
category itself and consumer demand is driving innovation.
• Plant based protein - consumers are still focused on protein as a purchase influencer and this is
where grains in combination with legumes can play a part, as consumers increasingly demand
plant based alternatives. Additionally, combining both grains and legumes in one product is of
specific benefit as they provide a complete source of protein, delivering all amino acids
essential for health12.
Sprouted grains and beans
Way Better Crackers, US
Veggies, legumes & whole grains
Table of Plenty Protein Crunch,
Australia
Plant Based: Protein Claims On Pack
The 2017 GLNC Consumption Study showed that 43% of Australians were at least strongly
influenced by protein claims on pack1. Manufacturers are responding to consumer demand
for protein call-outs on pack…. GLNC’s latest Product Audits revealed that 33% of muesli,
granola and cluster products10 and 18% of breads11 have protein claims on pack . With more
demand for plant based protein alternatives, on-pack communication offers a key
opportunity.
Plant Based: The Future
Consumer desire for plant based foods and plant proteins is growing. Although still a relatively
small market, as research continues to show the benefits of a mostly plant based diet, more
consumers are looking for products and alternatives which help them to meet this trend. The
plant based category looks set to continue providing opportunities for manufacturers for the
foreseeable future, with the New Nutrition Business Trends Report noting that the plant protein
trend will likely drive strategy for at least the next 5 years9. Combine this with emerging
evidence which supports the benefits of a plant based diet and this trend is here to stay.
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: The Trend
Although we’ve previously seen a demonisation of carbs with a focus instead on the Paleo,
gluten free and low carb diets, we’re now seeing a move towards acceptance that they’re part
of a balanced diet, with a focus on quality carbs. Quality carbohydrates are synonymous with
whole grains, so this sub-category is helping to drive growth and movement within this trend.
Current and predicted future key trends are supportive of whole grains, which opens up
significant opportunities for innovation within both the grains and legumes categories. The
evidence for increasing whole grain consumption is compelling…
• Each one serve increase in whole grains every day decreases the risk of dying from all causes
by 7%13, from CVD by 9% and cancer by 5%14.
• Whole grain/high fibre foods have been found to offer the greatest protection against diet
related diseases of all food groups - more so than fruit and vegetables15.
• People with a high whole grain intake had a 23% reduced risk of Type 2 diabetes compared
to those who ate little or no whole grain16.
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: Who & How?
The GLNC 2017 Consumption Study revealed that consumers who eat whole grain foods are getting the
message on the benefits of whole grains and focusing on quality instead, with a 60% increase in daily serve
consumption amongst whole grain food consumers. But within the wider population there’s still work to be
done, with 2017 data showing that most Australians are falling short on their whole grain consumption, at
under 2 serves a day¹. Increased availability in core categories such as bread, alongside micro-trends like the
cult health status oats have recently established, has helped consumers increase their intake thus far…
Consumption of porridge oats has
more than doubled since
2014
The number of white loaves on shelf has
decreased by 10% in 2 years, with 20 of these
SKU’s replaced by wholemeal or whole
grain loaves. Australians are
increasingly choosing wholemeal
varieties of wraps, crackers and crispbreads
64% of cereals were a source of
whole grain in 2017, compared to 60% in 2014
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: Who & How?
Consumer motivations within this category are broad, but the key categories at play here are
weight management and digestive wellness. Consumers are altering their carbohydrate intake in
line with key motivators by…
1. Altering carbohydrate intake - swapping their regular carbs such as bread, for alternatives where
some of the traditional ‘bad’ carbs have been replaced eg veggie
bread: 1/3 veggies and/or legumes
2. Improving digestive wellness - new varieties of ancient wheat are being
created to avoid symptoms associated with gluten
eg 2AB Wheat
Fazer Vegetable Breads, Finland Good Mills 2AB
Wheat, Germany
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: Who & How?
4. Reducing carbohydrate intake - swapping regular bread formats for smaller or lower carb varieties eg
wraps or thins
3. Trading off carb content for an additional benefit – adding in a key purchase influence eg
‘high in protein’ or ‘high in fibre’
Tumaro’s Low Carb Wraps, US
Warburtons Protein Bread, UK
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: Media
Recent media has been predominantly favourable around the carbohydrate trend - over 2017
we’ve seen an increase of 50% on the number of favourable articles on carbs. The number of
Paleo articles have also decreased by 91% in the last year alongside an increase in favourable
coverage17. So it seems the general media outlook is becoming more focused on balance and
presenting a neutral view on fads that come and go. And the message is getting through -
Australians, like the rest of the world, are tuning in to carbohydrate quality and are increasingly
searching for information on the right kind of carbs to eat.
Consumers are catching on - Google searches
for ‘healthy carbs’ in Australia
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: The Media
Carbohydrates - favourable coverage has increased and
number of articles has decreased by
over 30%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
July -September
FY17
October -December
FY17
January -March FY17
April - JuneFY17
July -September
FY18
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
July -September
FY17
October -December
FY17
January -March FY17
April - JuneFY17
July -September
FY18
Paleo - overall, favourable
coverage has increased and
number of articles has decreased by
over 90%
GLNC Media Monitoring: Carbohydrate Coverage Sentiment
GLNC Media Monitoring: Paleo Coverage Sentiment
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: The Opportunities
Despite the continuing talk around carbohydrates and low-carb and ketogenic diets, there are
opportunities for manufacturers both within traditional grain categories and also for those
looking to take advantage of the increase in innovation within the space. Many organisations
are already taking advantage of the opportunities relating to this trend, including…
• Re-formulation - traditional grain based carb categories are facing competition - with pasta
consumption having fallen 12% between 2011 and 20169 and facing competition from the
relatively new vegetable category, companies such as San Remo and Pangkarra are offering
alternatives still within the dried pasta category but made with pulse flours instead. Nordic bakery
Fazer have reformulated by replacing around 30% of the grain in their breads with vegetable
purees and legume flours alongside smaller formats of traditional carb products.
Smaller format
Made with lentil & chickpea flour Pangkarra Gluten Free
Pasta, Australia
Warburtons Bagel Thins, UK
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: The Opportunities
• Associating carbs with energy - this opportunity here is on quality carbs with a focus on whole
grains. As understanding around the importance of carb quality grows, consumers will more readily
consume grain based products as a source of natural energy. This opportunity can take advantage
of another of 2017’s key trends - Sportification - UK brand Soreen re-aligned their traditional malt
loaf with a sports focus and watched declining sales soar.
• Carbs as a form of indulgence - this is perhaps the biggest opportunity for grain innovation and an
association with indulgence sees consumers freely consuming carbs without the restrictions they
place on consumption in other forms. Whole grains are a specific opportunity for this category,
with a gap in the market where indulgent carbs such as cakes, biscuits, pastries and whole grains
combine. Technological advances in the near future will allow this category to expand further.
Deliciously squidgy energy Soreen Malt Loaf, UK
Good Carbs, Bad Carbs: The Future
As we move into an era of increased understanding of the benefits of carbohydrates and in
particular, carbohydrate quality, the opportunities for manufacturers within this space continue
to grow. On-pack labelling is a key communication opportunity - labelling needs to be consistent
and easy to understand for consumers - with on-pack labelling being a clear purchase influencer
for whole grains and fibre. An average of 40% of Australians report that whole grain claims
influence purchasing decisions. Additionally, 23% of Australians are actively looking for better
on-pack labelling to help them eat more whole grains¹. As more favourable communication
continues alongside demand for ‘better’ and more unique options, this trend is likely to
influence industry innovation for years to come.
Snackification: The Trend
Nearly all consumers snack these days with younger generations the driving force behind the
growth of this trend - in Australia 92% of millennials replace at least one meal with a snack every
week and globally 56% of consumers eat at least one snack every day18. Several factors make
snacking one of the most consistent and enduring trends to date: no limits on innovation, all
categories can exploit the trend and our increasingly busy lifestyles are causing demand to rise.
With more and more consumers replacing traditional meals with snacks, the demand for healthy
products is on the rise with 3 out of 5 Australians now looking for healthy snacks . Whole grains
and fibre are a key focus here - globally we’ve seen a 31% increase in launches of snack products
with a high or source of fibre positioning19. The grains category has responded…
• The number of breakfast biscuits and grain based snacks increased by 26% between 2015 and 201720.
And consumers behaviour is changing…
• Wholemeal / whole grain crispbread consumption doubled between 2014 and 2017¹.
• Although consumption of traditional muesli bars has fallen, consumption of new bars formats has
more than doubled¹ since 2014.
.
Snackification: Who & How
The younger generation is driving the majority of this category growth, with millennials
primarily looking to snack to tide them over between meals and older generations snacking less
frequently and seeing snacks as more of a treat. With almost everyone choosing to snack at
some point and any category open to innovation, there are endless opportunities. There are
several key strategies at play and many companies, both large and small, are taking advantage
of the technological advances which are allowing innovation to develop.
1. Premium products - people are willing to pay a premium for great tasting snacks that cater to their lifestyle and perceived image eg Good Thins have elevated the humble cracker with offerings including chickpea, oat, corn and rice variations
Good Thins, US
Snackification: Who & How
3. Permission to indulge – upgrading a typically unhealthy snack to a healthier option gives consumers a free pass to indulge eg. ice cream sandwiches using oat biscuits & a focus on protein
4. Every category is open to snackification - legumes
in various formats have really led development in
this category eg. snack sized hummus pots with
crackers
2. No limits on NPD - everyone is a food explorer
and we all want new and innovative ideas eg snack bars using whole grains from the beer brewing
process
Regrained Bars, US
Elovena Oat Sandwich Biscuits, Finland
Tribe Hummus & Pita Chips, US
Snackification: The Media
Media around snacking tends to focus more on younger demographics, with articles covering
‘how to choose healthy snacks’ dominating content. Older generations tend to see snacking as
more of a treat so media coverage for these demographics is rare, whereas we know younger
generations are eating snacks on a more regular basis and seek advice as to what’s the healthiest
snack for any given time of day. Whole grains consistently feature favourably in the media as a
nutritious snack option, particularly when in regards to pre- or post-workout options.
Snackification: The Opportunities
Opportunities within this category abound as there really are no limits – there are considerable
opportunities for healthy and indulgent snacks and with a success rate of 60% (higher than other
categories)9 it’s a low risk option thanks to a number of factors: products within the category usually
have a long life, they lend themselves to small scale production and changing consumer preferences
means even very niche products are successful. There are three key areas for development…
• Bakery with benefits - although most often associated with indulgence and therefore neglected as
a category, consumers have shown that they are willing to trade off if a bakery product can offer
benefits. For example, products that contain ingredients with a health halo, such as ancient grains,
oats, pulses and vegetables are popular.
Beetroot bread Whole grains
Fazer Beetroot Rounds, Finland
Table of Plenty Rice Cakes, Australia
Snackification: The Opportunities
• Smaller format bakery - even more indulgent products such as Oreo Thins are readily accepted, as
they fit into the smaller format or ‘bite sized’ category, alongside core products such as whole grain
or alternative grain crackers and smaller breads. This demonstrates that there’s a real opportunity
to give consumers permission to indulge by adding a health benefit to the product.
• Grains with dairy - dairy products are already well established within the snacking category
because of their beneficial status with health conscious consumers, alongside dairy’s versatility. But
the opportunity for grains within the dairy space is growing too - adding oats and ancient grains
boosts fibre content and increases the ‘staying power’ of snacks and with consumers more
frequently eating snacks in place of main meals, satiety and nutrient content is a key driver.
Oats
Dairy
Yummia Bircher Muesli, Australia
Snackification: The Future
Consumer need, a desire for innovation and available technologies are driving this category and
look set to continue to do so as our eating habits evolve further still. There is plenty of
competition within the category, but the fact that almost anything can be ‘snackified’ means
that there are still opportunities for manufacturers to be first innovators. Similarly, benefitting
from such a diverse audience means there’s room for both niche and mass-market strategies.
Bread Audit – September 201711
25% of all breads were a source of
whole grain
68% of all breads were at least a source of fibre
52% of all breads met the Australian Government’s
reformulation target of ≤400mg/100g
sodium
The majority of breads (89%) had
less than 1 tsp sugar per 100g
57% of all breads were a source of
protein
Snack Bar Audit – April 201720
31% of muesli bars were high in whole grain 63% were at least
a source of fibre
Half of the muesli bars
were rated 4 stars or more
Muesli & grain based bars
contribute just 0.7% of total sugars to Australian diets
Breakfast Cereal Audit – November 201610
64% were at least a source of whole grain
85% were a source, good source or
excellent source of fibre
96% had moderate or low levels of
sodium
68% had less than 2
teaspoons of sugar
44% were a source of protein
Grains in the Media: Overall Sentiment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
October - DecemberFY17
January - March FY17 April - June FY17 July - September FY18
• Unfavourable coverage
increased in April-June following a report linking breads and breakfast cereals with high salt levels.
• Favourable coverage was fuelled by interest in new grain trends following the 2017 Grain Growers Conference.
Overall grains coverage has been favourable, with a steady increase in favourability over the year.
The quarter spanning July to September 2017 saw a slight decline in favourable coverage but in
its place we saw more neutral coverage of low carb diets which demonstrates the increasingly
balanced view we’re seeing from the media.
GLNC Media Monitoring: Grains Coverage Sentiment
Grains Category: Summary
In summary, although the category is facing competition from new trends and changing
attitudes to foods, there is still significant opportunity for innovation and product development
for grains. Several trends, in addition to those covered in this report, are helping to alter
consumer attitudes to grains and their numerous health benefits. Digestive wellness and the
focus on increasing fibre intake for example, is an opportunity for innovation with tailored
products as well as a communication opportunity. Alongside the trends, communication of the
health benefits of grains is the other half of the story in helping consumers make informed
decisions and easily identify beneficial grain foods.
Any questions, please contact…
Alexandra Locke
Marketing & Communications Manager
02 9394 8664
References
1. GLNC. 2017Consumption & Attitudinal Study. 2017. Unpublished.
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3. Medina-RemÓn A, Kirwan R, Lamuela-Raventós RM, Estruch R. Dietary Patterns and the Risk of Obesity, Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus, Cardiovascular Diseases, Asthma, and Mental Health
Problems. Critical reviews in food science and nutrition. 2016:00-.
4. Shang X, Scott D, Hodge AM, English DR, Giles GG, Ebeling PR, et al. Dietary protein intake and risk of type 2 diabetes: results from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study and a meta-
analysis of prospective studies. The American journal of clinical nutrition. 2016.
5. Melina V, Craig W, Levin S. Position of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics: Vegetarian Diets. Journal of the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics. 2016;116(12):1970-80.
6. Dinu M, Abbate R, Gensini GF, Casini A, Sofi F. Vegetarian, vegan diets and multiple health outcomes: A systematic review with meta-analysis of observational studies. Critical reviews in
food science and nutrition. 2017;57(17):3640-9.
7. Harland J, Garton L. An update of the evidence relating to plant-based diets and cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes and overweight. Nutrition Bulletin. 2016;41(4):323-38.
8. NHMRC. Australian Dietary Guidelines Providing the scientific evidence for healthier Australian diets. 2013 Accessed online January 2014.
9. New Nutrition Business. 2017. 10 Key Trends for 2018 Report
10. GLNC. Australian Breakfast Cereal Product Audit. 2016.
11. GLNC. Australian Bread Product Audit. 2017.
12. Young VR, Pellett PL. Plant proteins in relation to human protein and amino acid nutrition. The American journal of clinical nutrition. 1994;59(5):1203S-12S.
13. Ma X, Tang WG, Yang Y, Zhang QL, Zheng JL, Xiang YB. Association between whole grain intake and all-cause mortality: a meta-analysis of cohort studies. Oncotarget. 2016.
14. Zong G, Gao A, Hu FB, Sun Q. Whole Grain Intake and Mortality From All Causes, Cardiovascular Disease, and Cancer: A Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies. Circulation.
2016;133(24):2370-80.
15. Fardet A, Boirie Y. Associations between food and beverage groups and major diet-related chronic diseases: an exhaustive review of pooled/meta-analyses and systematic reviews.
Nutrition reviews. 2014:n/a-n/a.
16. Schwingshackl L, Hoffmann G, Lampousi A-M, Knüppel S, Iqbal K, Schwedhelm C, et al. Food groups and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis of
prospective studies. European journal of epidemiology. 2017:1-13.
17. GLNC. Media Monitoring 2016-17. Unpublished.
18. Choosi. Modern Foods Trend Report. 2017.
19. Innova Market Insights. Snacking Report. 2017.
20. GLNC. Australian Snack Product Audit. 2017.