© Higher School of Economics, Moscow 2012
Foresight for Grand Challenges: Grand Challenges for Foresight.
Ian Miles
Research Laboratory for Economics of InnovationHigher School of Economics - National Research University Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge
Higher School of Economics Moscow 2012www.hse.ru
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Grand Challenges• Water security and vulnerability• Energy security and vulnerability• Health, illness, well being• Sustainability and climate change• Ageing and demographic issues• Food security and culture• Globalization and localization• Social cohesion and diversity• Technological security, hazard & risk• Consumption and behavioural change• Innovation, knowledge & technology• Work-life balance and mental health• Science, technology, ethics• Crime, security, justice• Governance, democracy, citizenship• Coexistence and conflict• Social pathologies and ethics• Social exclusion, poverty, affluence• Economic prosperity and dynamics• Urban and rural dynamics• Education and skills dynamics
Multi-disciplinaryProblems
Multi-StakeholderResponses
21 Grand Challenges – major problem areas, where interdisciplinary research is required- for EU identified in “ERA Toolkit” at
http://community.iknowfutures.eu/
Globally, pervasive problems include: Climate Change; Demographics/ Ageing/ Health; Security of Water/Energy/Food Supplies.Grand Challenges involve not so much Grand Solutions, as Great Responses
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Grand Solutions - technological
Grand Challen
ges
Major Technological
Innovation
Social and economic causes or impacts
of challenge
Changing or sustaining
social and economic practices
If current technologies contribute to, or cannot cope with, problems – then innovate our way around them – Grand Solutions.
In many cases, a large part of the problem reflects current modes of use of available technology
The problem could be ameliorated or forestalled through prospective modes of use of new technology
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Techno-Optimism
Grand Challen
ges
Major Technological
Innovation
Social and economic causes or impacts
of challenge
Changing or sustaining
social and economic practices
Major transitions may not require dramatically new technologies - likewise for “disruptive innovations”
Change our sources of energy
Geoengineer the symptoms
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Problems with Tech Fixes
Grand Challen
ges
Major Technological
Innovation
Transition to major new technologies is often a slow process, with many features where it is difficult to anticipate, or to use anticipations.
Social and economic causes or impacts
of challenge
Changing or sustaining
social and economic practices
Technology trajectories liable to be driven by other factors: ideal unrealised.
Adoption of technologies may result in rebound effects
Underlying drivers of GC may continue to accumulate or accelerate
Failure to address “side- effects” and other uses
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Grand Challenges
Situations that transcend
single disciplines
Complex interaction of processes at
different levels
Dialogues, knowledge fusion across multiple disciplines
Deeper and more shared understanding of “boundary areas”
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Grand Challenges: Great Responses, rather than Grand Solutions
Situations that transcend
single disciplines
Responses that involve multiple
actions
Dialogues, knowledge fusion across multiple disciplines
Alignment of action across multiple stakeholders
Demand
Grand Challenges
Great Responses
Understanding
Responding
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Grand Challenges and Great Responses
Situations that transcend
single disciplines
Responses that involve multiple
actions
Dialogues, knowledge fusion across multiple disciplines
Alignment of action across multiple stakeholders
Specification of Action MixEnvisioning interactions and
OutcomesContingencies and Risks
Analysis of Grand Challenge and development
trajectories involved
Communication among experts and translation of
understandings into rationales for action
Communication with and among stakeholders and
identification of features of action
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GCs are “Wicked Problems”
Grand Challenge
Multiple disciplines
Multiple Policy Actors
Multiple Stake-holders
Multiple Actions
C. West Churchman. 1967. "Guest Editorial“ Management Science
Vol. 14, No. 4
H. Rittel and M. Webber; 1973, "Dilemmas in a
General Theory of Planning," Policy Sciences, Vol. 4 pp.
155–169,
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Great Solutions require alignment
Alignment of agents across
groups
Multiple disciplines
Multiple Policy Actors
Multiple Stake-holders
Multiple Actions
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Alignment takes various forms and requires various approaches
Alignment of agents within
groups
Multiple disciplines
Multiple Policy Actors
Multiple Stake-holders
Multiple Actions
Alignment of knowledge
Alignment of action
In each case there is uncertainty and learning
over time: thus need scope for ongoing
experimentation and adjustment
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Technological Responses
• Major shifts in technological regime may not involve radical new technologies
• Disruptive Innovations* may involve changing business models etc – more a matter of quantitative than qualitative change in technology
• But revolutionary technologies by definition underpin disruptive technological innovations
* Clayton M. Christensen (1997), The Innovator's Dilemma, Boston, Mass: Harvard Business School Press
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Revolutionary technologies
•Displacement of existing technological regimes
•Rise of new industrial sectors
New Heartland Technologies
•Transformation of costs
•New functionality
New Processes and Products
•New entrants, intruders from other industries
•Change in market structures and consumption patterns
New Business Models
Freeman, Perez, etc.; cf C. Perez, (1983) “Structural Change and Assimilation of New Technologies” Futures 15 no 5 pp357-375
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Forecasting Technological Revolutions is also a Wicked Problem
Demand and Modes of UseReinvention Changing Practices
Application Areas
Combinations of Knowledge Development and Diffusion
New Heartland Technologies
Combinations of Knowledge Rate of Development
Resp
onse
from
Incu
mbe
nts
(tec
hnol
ogie
s)Risks and H
azards
Pervasive Technologies preceded by Pervasive Uncertainties
From Forecasting to Foresight
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At Least Two Wicked Problems
Grand Challenges
Disruptive Technologies
as Key to Great
Solutions Multiple, related, ongoing,
embedded,, Foresight activities
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Knowledge can be brought to bear: but much remains underdeveloped
Demand and Modes of UseReinvention Changing Practices
Application Areas
Combinations of Knowledge Development and Diffusion
New Heartland Technologies
Combinations of Knowledge Rate of Development
Know
ledg
e of
Soc
ial a
nd
Econ
omic
Dyn
amic
s Risk Assessment and
Managem
ent
Knowledge of Dynamics of Technological Change: Sociotechnical Constituencies, Product Cycles, etc.
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Grand Challenges for Foresight
Engagement and
Outreach Problems of Translation, Legitimacy
and Expertise
Political Institutions and Policy Cycles
Advanced
Concepts and
Methods
Aligning Narratives
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Some elements of a Great Response for Foresight
Engagement and
Outreach Problems of Translation, Legitimacy
and Expertise
Political Institutions and Policy Cycles
Advanced
Concepts and
Methods
Science and Policy beyond Foresight
Links to many organisations, building their capability, embedding processes
Shadowing highly elaborate models and techniques with more explicable,
hands on approaches
Cross-institution collaborations and non-partisan initiatives
Tools and methods for visualisation, debate, decisions
Sharing experience across Foresight practitioners: a GC/GR forum? Links to other
communities working on GC/GR policy.
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End of Presentation
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Challenges themselves vary
Threats to wellbeing
Acts of Nature
Products of socioeconomic
structures
Acts of Humans
Often combination of the various features, and often overlap between GCs
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as does the role of technologies
Threats to wellbeing
Acts of Nature
Products of socioeconomic
structures
Acts of Humans
Technological elements of modes of production and
consumption
Technological elements of modes of
destruction
Technological elements of responses to GCs
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Major new technologies
Threats to wellbeing
Acts of Nature
Products of socioeconomic
structures
Acts of Humans
Technological elements of modes of production and
consumption
Technological elements of modes of
destruction
Technological elements of responses to GCs
Possibilities of major change in what and how responses
are undertaken – preventative or ameliorative
action
Possibilities of major change in how destructive activities
are undertaken – new security threats
Possibilities of major change in how socioeconomic
activities are undertaken – affecting problems in
complex ways
