Grand Strategy Thinking in the 21st CenturyArctic Energy & Security Developments

by Mikå Mered, Polariis Consulting

We all know the Arctic is hard to define

We all know the ice is melting

We all know shipping lanes are opening

NSR & Arctic Bridge

GEOSTRATEGY

NWP & Arctic Bridge

Are we focusing on the right questions?

May there be a war for the Arctic’s resources?

From Hobbes to Tilly: war making is inherent to modern state making, since resources grabbing is

the only way to sustain the state.

«War made the state, and the state made war»

(C. Tilly, in War Making and State Making as Organized Crime)

First question: can we not tap into Arctic oil & gas?

Maximum mechanical energy produced by a 65kg average human being in one day: 0,55 kWh

If produced every other day= 100kWh per annum

1L of fossil fuel = 10kWh

1 human = 10L of fossil fuel

How many slaves do we own?

Energy Consumption per Person per Year (in kWh, global average)

In a finite (malthusian) world, a € inefficiently used is a lost €... (1/2)

€ / kW / working hours

Yearly running time (in hours)

€ / kW installed

Lifetime (in years)

kWh produced per kW installed over lifetime

€cents of capital required per kWh produced over lifetime

NuclearCOAL O&G HydroOnshore

windSolar

Offshore wind

Only 3 technologies have better ROI than O&G:

• Thorium-cycle Nuclear (technology known, grid-building possible in ±20 yrs)• Fusion• H2 (better ROI, but EROEI depends on primary energy source used)

In a finite (malthusian) world, a € inefficiently used is a lost €... (2/2)

USGS average est.: 412 Bn BOEArctic O&G:

Greenland: 30% Iceland: 1%Norway: 0% Russia: 0%Alaska: 0% Canada: 0%

Dependence on foreign oil:

Arctic vs Shales?

© Power magazine

Arctic vs Shales?

Arctic hydrocarbon direct revenues expected by Russian strategists (if curr. prices remain constent): $1.7 Tn

TAKEAWAY

No renewable energy at this point is efficient enough to cannibalize fossil fuels.

27% of all energy investments worldwide are directed towards inefficient-enough renewables. However, these investments only serves microeconomic short-term interests.

The financial bubble created will harm mature economies when the market corrects itself in 15-20 years time, due to the rapid emergence of greentechs with much greater EROEI.

TAKEAWAY

At our level of technological advancement, no one primary energy source can sustainably support a global hegemon.

Likewise, current G0 world order is unsustainable.

From a geostrategic perspective

Until 15th century

16th-19th centuries1st Globalization Wave

19th centurySea-land opposition

1904Heartland

1942Heartland Rimland

Chicago Plan Commission - Airports Page

Courtesy of Prelinger Library's Chicago ephemera collection / Eric Fischer

1945

1946

1955-1977Heartland Rimland Containment

2012Heartland Rimland Containment PIVOT

2013Iceless-Arctic? PIVOT

2013Iceless-Arctic? PIVOT

2013Iceless-Arctic?

Arctic Trafic

Mars ‘12 Sept. ‘12

GIUK Gap

Announced Military Investments in the Arctic (2013-2025)

NATO: $100 BnRussia: $750 Bn

NATO: $60 BnRussia: $350 Bn

Our correction (most-plausible scenario)

2020 & bey.GIUK Gap as the new world’s heartland

Permanent Observers

NB: EU & Turkey have ad-hoc observer status.

Member-states

Inclusiveness & comprehensiveness are the keys

Foreign Policy tools

Track-II tools

TAKEAWAY

The Arctic community has 20 to 25 years ahead of her to develop as many strategic inderdependencies as possible and allow for the emergence of an official dialogue on security issues.

The Arctic Council is the only legitimate-enough body to host and organize such dialogue.

Global regionalisation strategy necessary to foster global security.

Otherwise, there will be no conflict for the Arctic, but should there be a conflict, it will happen in the Arctic.

Thank you !