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Graphex/Marvel Gold (GPX/MVL AU, $0.052, market cap A$21 ...€¦ · 2018). Historically over...

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1 Dr Chris Baker July,2020 Graphex/Marvel Gold (GPX/MVL AU, $0.052, market cap A$21.5m, pro-forma*) GPX morphs into Marvel Gold, a Malian gold explorer with 2 high calibre projects and a resource base of 600koz, soon to be upgraded to JORC 2012 status GPX/MVL* has moved away from graphite in Tanzania, following in-country challenges and an inability to fund the Chilalo project. This strategy has been assisted with the cooperation of the private equity (PE) group which was hoping to fund the project. Chilalo and associated liabilities are now ringfenced and GPX will seek a buyer of the asset. Proceeds in excess of the liability to PE (ca. US$6.2m) will be retained by GPX/MVL. With ample African experience and contacts GPX/MVL has been sifting through investment opportunities. An opportunity has been presented to GPX from one of its larger shareholders, Capital Drilling, which recently negotiated an earn in to two attractive projects in Mali with UK and TSXV-listed Altus Strategies: o Tabakorole with a 600koz, 1gpt non-JORC resource (dating from 2007), located in southern Mali. The company is wasting no time advancing the project. The first phase of drilling has already been completed, with assays expected in coming weeks. Inclusion of these results and several historic holes not included in the 2007 MRE may significantly improve the grade and size of the deposit. o Lakanfla, located in western Mali adjacent to the Senegal Mali Shear Zone offering geology similar to that seen at the nearby 4.5moz Yatela deposit and within a short trucking distance of the Sadiola mill. GPX will take over the earn-in on broadly equivalent terms (fairly soft, in our view). We estimate the cost to take exploration to the Stage 1 earn-in is under $1.5m. This should present the company with a clear go/no- go decision point for both projects. Tabakorole is likely to move to Stage 2 of the exploration programme. GPX can earn up to 80% equity in both projects (or 100% if sole funding construction), subject to the achievement of a series of exploration milestones. Recall as well that the Government of Mali has the right to take a 10% free carry in all mining projects in the country. Altus will also retain a 2.5% net smelter royalty (1.5% of which can be re-purchased by GPX on commercial terms). A recent capital raising will see a significant increase in the number of issued shares (413m post placement and rights issue, due to complete in mid-August), leaving the company with a $5m cash position. Source: GPX presentation, July 2020 (* GPXis to be renamed Marvel Gold, MVL, following completion of a rights issue in mid-August. The pro-forma market capitalisation assumes that the rights issues is successfully completed.) MiFID II compliance statement: Bridge Street Capital Partners are Corporate Advisors to this company and receive fees from this company for services provided. See disclaimer/disclosure for more detail. By downloading this report, you acknowledge receipt of our Financial Services Guide, available on our web page www.bridgestreetcapital.com.au. Graphex Mining July 2020
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Dr Chris Baker July,2020

Graphex/Marvel Gold (GPX/MVL AU, $0.052, market cap A$21.5m, pro-forma*) GPX morphs into Marvel Gold, a Malian gold explorer with 2 high calibre projects and a

resource base of 600koz, soon to be upgraded to JORC 2012 status

• GPX/MVL* has moved away from graphite in Tanzania, following in-country challenges and an inability to fund the Chilalo project. This strategy has been assisted with the cooperation of the private equity (PE) group which was hoping to fund the project. Chilalo and associated liabilities are now ringfenced and GPX will seek a buyer of the asset. Proceeds in excess of the liability to PE (ca. US$6.2m) will be retained by GPX/MVL.

• With ample African experience and contacts GPX/MVL has been sifting through investment opportunities. An opportunity has been presented to GPX from one of its larger shareholders, Capital Drilling, which recently negotiated an earn in to two attractive projects in Mali with UK and TSXV-listed Altus Strategies:

o Tabakorole with a 600koz, 1gpt non-JORC resource (dating from 2007), located in southern Mali. The company is wasting no time advancing the project. The first phase of drilling has already been completed, with assays expected in coming weeks. Inclusion of these results and several historic holes not included in the 2007 MRE may significantly improve the grade and size of the deposit.

o Lakanfla, located in western Mali adjacent to the Senegal Mali Shear Zone offering geology similar to that seen at the nearby 4.5moz Yatela deposit and within a short trucking distance of the Sadiola mill.

• GPX will take over the earn-in on broadly equivalent terms (fairly soft, in our view). We estimate the cost to take exploration to the Stage 1 earn-in is under $1.5m. This should present the company with a clear go/no-go decision point for both projects. Tabakorole is likely to move to Stage 2 of the exploration programme.

• GPX can earn up to 80% equity in both projects (or 100% if sole funding construction), subject to the achievement of a series of exploration milestones. Recall as well that the Government of Mali has the right to take a 10% free carry in all mining projects in the country. Altus will also retain a 2.5% net smelter royalty (1.5% of which can be re-purchased by GPX on commercial terms).

• A recent capital raising will see a significant increase in the number of issued shares (413m post placement and rights issue, due to complete in mid-August), leaving the company with a $5m cash position.

Source: GPX presentation, July 2020

(* GPXis to be renamed Marvel Gold, MVL, following completion of a rights issue in mid-August. The pro-forma market capitalisation assumes that the rights issues is successfully completed.)

MiFID II compliance statement: Bridge Street Capital Partners are Corporate Advisors to this company and receive fees from this company for services provided. See disclaimer/disclosure for more detail. By downloading this report, you acknowledge receipt of our Financial Services Guide, available on our web page www.bridgestreetcapital.com.au.

Graphex Mining July 2020

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Investment view

• Following the failure of private equity to deliver a funding package for the Chilalo project, it has been reassuring that GPX management has wasted no time in re-inventing itself. Management’s clear aim is to restore value lost in the fruitless search for a fundable graphite project.

• With the assistance of a major shareholder, GPX has acquired two very attractive exploration plays in Mali, and has refreshed the board. Now a company with a gold exploration focus, the appointment of a talented Exploration Director, Chris van Wijk, is a real positive. This position is supported by Andrew Pardey, an ex Centamin CEO, as a non-executive director. Both appointments provide significant strength to the board as it embarks on its new strategy.

• Graphex will change its name to Marvel Gold and has been recapitalised with a share placement and rights issue (the placement is complete; the rights issue closes around 11 August). At the completion of the rights issue there will be 413m shares on issue

• The new Marvel Gold has wasted no time and has completed an infill diamond and air core drilling programme at Tabakorole in anticipation of an updated and likely higher grade mineral resource estimate (MRE) due in 3Q2020. So, there should be no shortage of short term news flow.

• The geologists will then turn their attention to the Yatela look-alike. Lakanfla is clearly under-explored and presents several walk-up drill targets. The size of the prize could be quite significant. The proximity of Lakanfla to the Sadiola mill recently purchased by a private group, Allied Gold, and now starved for reserves, adds additional optionality. Drilling at Lakanfla is due to commence shortly.

• It is difficult to assess an equity market value for companies such as GPX/MVL and we must await a new MRE at Tabakorole and initial drilling at Lakanfla. Nonetheless we are guided by market values apportioned to other pre-resource gold plays in Mali and Senegal. Along the Senegal Mali Shear Zone (SMSZ) we have been watching closely the work of Oklo Resources (OKU ASX) which we believe will report a +600koz resource of perhaps 1-2gpt gold. OKU’s EV is now around A$160m. In neighbouring Senegal, and on a splay off the SMSZ, early exploration by Chesser Resources (CHZ ASX) is delivering success at the Diamba Sud project. While still some way from a resource, the market is pricing Chesser with an EV of around A$28m.

• GPX/MVL’s EV with the stock now ex-rights entitlement implies an EV of circa. $16-17m. We believe this represents quite an inexpensive valuation in the current buoyant gold market, and provides a good base from which to rerate as exploration success is delivered.

The transformation: Graphex to Marvel Gold

• Following a wide search throughout the highly prospective Birimian belts of West Africa, GPX has put together a transaction with one of its major shareholders, Capital Drilling. In December 2019, Capital, with the assistance of its key geological consultant, Chris van Wijk, farmed into two projects held by resources royalty company and African explorer, Altus Strategies plc. Capital agreed to sell both projects to GPX, to assist in the recapitalisation of the company. Farm-in terms are broadly the same.

• Capital had undertaken initial exploration work, particularly at Tabakorole, and confirmed that the prospects here were very encouraging. This initial work has given GPX a running start at both projects. In fact, the company announced on 16 July that Phase 1 drilling at Tabakorole had been completed and sufficient work had been undertaken for GPX to earn into 33% of the project. This will allow the completion of an updated MRE.

• The two new gold ventures within Graphex/Marvel Gold , Tabakorole and Lakanfla, are described in detail below.

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Tabakorole: a 600koz resource at 1gpt, with exploration opportunities to lift the grade and ounces significantly The earn in: GPX/MVL to refund a total US$50k for both projects (paid) and undertake 1500m of drilling to earn 33% (this has now been achieved) and a further payment of US$200k (stage payment covers both Tabakorole and Lakanfla), and another 2500m of drilling and US$300k of other expenditure to move to 51%. Funding a DFS will take GPX/MVL’s equity to 80%. (Recall the Government of Mali can take a 10% free carried interest in the project any time). GPX/MVL can move to 100% if sole funding construction. The vendor retains a 2.5% NSR, 1.5% can be repurchased on commercial terms.

• The Tabakorole project is located in southern Mali, approximately 280km south of the capital city of Bamako. The project is located on the Bannifin Shear Zone which hosts the Tier 1 Morila gold mine (operated by Barrick Gold), located approximately 120 km to the NW. To the west is the 2moz Kalana deposit, previously owned by Avnel, taken over by Endeavour in 2017.

Source: GPX presentation, July 2020

• The Tabakorole orebody is hosted along a 2.7 km long shear zone and can be up to 200m wide. The geology is

dominated by clastic sediments, cut by northwest trending deformation zones which host gold mineralisation. • The project was discovered by BHP in the early 1990s. Since 2003, extensive programmes of auger and air core

drilling were undertaken by North Atlantic Resources (which became Legend Gold, taken over by Altus in 2018). Historically over 50,000m of RC and diamond drilling was completed. Historical results include 16m at 9.31 g/t Au from 80m, 60m at 2.92 g/t Au from 14m and 44m at 3.29 g/t Au from 24m.

• The Tabakorole resource has a non-JORC MRE comprising some 18.3 million tonnes at around 1gpt for 594koz gold (41% indicated, balance inferred).

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Source: GPX presentation, July 2020

• Presentations from GPX’s geologists suggests that the resource may not have been evaluated thoroughly.

Several issues have emerged which could materially improve the resource: o Since the completion of the MRE a significant number of additional holes were completed (with results

including 18m at 6.05 g/t Au from 12m, 14m at 9.84 g/t Au from 10m and 24m at 2.53 g/t Au from 48m) but were not included in an MRE. Several of these are highlighted in yellow break-out boxes above.

o At least one drill hole (and a significant one at that) had been incorrectly located in the exploration database.

o There appears not to have been a rigorous structural understanding of the mineralisation. The extent of the resource appears to have been driven by slightly arbitrary extrapolation of grades (which may have generated more tonnes at significantly lower grades).

o Despite this infill program, there still appears to be a number of gaps in along the 2.5km strike length of the deposit, which represent immediate drill targets.

o Much of the drilling has been within the top 100-150m of the deposit. It’s possible that the higher grade zones represent plunging ore shoots which have been inadequately drill tested. As an example, one of the deepest holes (around 200m vertical) delivered 9m of 11.2gpt. There has been no follow-up drilling of this encouraging intercept and several others.

o The resource estimate undertaken in 2007 appears to have been very preliminary, and quite inadequate in its nature. Moreover it was estimated at a very low 0.2gpt cut-off grade.

• GPX has wasted no time in looking for the upside. In the last few months, geologists have completed a ground magnetic survey and a number of air core holes to the NW of the known mineralisation. This has demonstrated that there is a good correlation between the magnetic signature of the deposit and mineralisation. Highly anomalous air core results are significant as they extend the potential strike length of the known orebody by around 600m to NW (“NW Extension” in the plan above). Subsequently 92 air core holes and a single diamond hole have also been undertaken assessing the potential strike extensions. Assays are expected within weeks.

• As well, GPX has completed a Phase 1 drill-out of gaps within the current Tabakorole resource. 8 diamond holes have been completed with assays awaited.

• Initial metallurgical work will be conducted in coming weeks. (No metallurgical testwork was conducted as part of the 2007 43-101 by North Atlantic). We note reference to visible gold in some of the core but also the presence of “disseminated sulphides”. None of the orebodies in southern Mali have demonstrated metallurgical issues, so we see no reason for concern here.

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• It’s possible, taking all these issues into account, that Tabakorole may be able to deliver a higher grade (perhaps 1.5-2gpt) open pittable deposit. As well, it’s possible that the higher-grade shoots at depth could represent an opportunity for underground mining.

BSCP view of Tabakorole: While Tabakorole has been extensively drilled, we see past work as telling only part of the story. A more rigorous review of drill data and geology, and infilling of obvious gaps could deliver quite a different outcome. The sense we have is that the FT orebody could hold the potential to deliver a +1.5gpt orebody, with underground potential significantly higher than that. We believe the current drilling database is an excellent place to start to improve the quality and dimension of the deposit. The orebody appears to be open to the north and west, possibly to the south and certainly at depth. Tabakorole is quite remote, so it’s likely that a future mine will likely need to be stand-alone. This probably requires a resource of at least 1Moz at a grade of perhaps over 1.5gpt. We see that this achievable based on the current deposit and the extensive tenement position to the south of Tabakorole.

Source: GPX release, July 2020.

Lakanfla: A lightly explored Yatela look-alike within the highly prospective Senegal Mali Shear Zone. The earn in: GPX to refund a total US$50k for both projects and undertake 3500m of drilling to earn 33% and a further payment of US$200k (stage payment covers both Tabakorole and Lakanfla), and another 9000m of drilling to move to 51%. Funding a DFS will take GPX’s equity to 80%. (Recall the Government of Mali can take a 10% free carried interest in the project any time). GPX/MVL can move to 100% if sole funding construction. The vendor retains a 2.5% NSR, 1.5% can be repurchased on commercial terms.

• The Lakanfla gold project is located in the Kenieba inlier of western Mali, adjacent to the northern section of the gold-rich Senegal Mali Shear Zone (SMSZ). The project lies just to the SE of the tier 1 Sadiola gold mine (13.5Moz production historically) and 35km SE of the Yatela mine (4.5Moz production historically).

• The Senegal Mali Shear Zone has been a prolific gold province, with over 60Moz identified to date. • The Lakanfla project hosts a significant number of active and historic artisanal gold workings which are

coincident with major geochemical and gravity anomalies. These workings surround the Kantela granodiorite intrusion and cover an area of approximately 900m x 500m. Significantly there is evidence of ground collapse

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at surface, indicative of karst (or cave-like) voids at depth within carbonate rock units. This is geologically analogous to the 4.5moz Yatela deposit.

• Historic drilling has returned encouraging intersections including 9.8gpt Au over 12m and 5.2gpt Au over 16m as well as having intersected voids and unconsolidated sand from over 150m depth. However, none of the priority gravity low targets appear to have been systematically drill tested. Of the historical drilling that has been undertaken at Lakanfla, 35 holes coincide with the priority targets, however, the majority of these holes were drilled no deeper than 75m and the exploration target is expected to be below this stratigraphic level at the bedrock-weathering interface.

• Previous owners, Legend Gold reported an internal near-surface resource of some 63koz at a grade of around 1.6gpt gold. This has not been verified, nor was it ever JORC compliant we believe. A follow-up review, and possibly further drilling is certainly warranted.

• The nearby Sadiola mine, owned by Anglogold and Iamgold, was recently sold to Allied Gold Corporation. While Sadiola’s reserves are reported at 2.9Moz at 2gpt, its understood that these reserves are largely refractory sulphides. We are told that lower grade oxide ore reserves could sustain a plant for 2-3 years if run below full capacity, so even a modest oxide deposit could be a useful fallback for GPX/MVL in the short term.

BSCP view of Lakanfla: Encouraging geophysics and geochemical anomalies appear not to have been adequately drill tested. As a fall back, if the existing +60koz resource can be verified, it’s possible this could be sold to the new owners of Sadiola or toll treated.

Lakanfla Location Map and gravity signature.

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The future for Chilalo Graphite

• The following slide (from GPX) summarises the state of affairs for Chilalo. All liabilities have been securely ring-fenced within a separate company “Graphex Mining UK No. 1”.

• Graphex is now committed to completing a transaction on Chilalo. In our view, Chilalo is a quality large flake graphite project, perhaps over-engineered (at the request of financiers) and unfortunately located in Tanzania (now an investment basket case).

• For new GPX/MVL shareholders, in our view there is only upside from Chilalo. For previous GPX shareholders (and analysts), it is a lesson learned.

Source: GPX presentation, July 2020.

Graphex/Marvel Gold Capital Structure, board and major shareholders The following table presents the pro-forma capital structure following a placement and rights issue. The rights issue is due to be concluded on or around 19 August and has received shareholder approval.

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By downloading this report you acknowledge receipt of our Financial Services Guide, available on our web page www.bridgestreetcapital.com.au.

Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd is licensed to provide financial services in Australia; CAR AFSL 456663; Level 14, 234 George Street, Sydney NSW 2000 Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd is providing the financial service to you. General Advice Warning Please note that any advice given by Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd or its authorised representatives (BSCP) is GENERAL advice, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. If our advice relates to the acquisition, or possible acquisition, of a particular financial product you should read any relevant Prospectus, PDS or like instrument. Disclaimers BSCP provides this financial advice as an honest and reasonable opinion held at a point in time about an investment’s risk profile and merit and the information is provided by BSCP in good faith. The views of the adviser(s) do not necessarily reflect the views of the AFS Licensee. BSCP has no obligation to update the opinion unless BSCP is currently contracted to provide such an updated opinion. BSCP does not warrant the accuracy of any information it sources from others. All statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate and any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. Assessment of risk can be subjective. Portfolios of equity investments need to be well diversified and the risk appropriate for the investor. Equity investments, made by less experienced investors, in listed or unlisted companies yet to achieve a profit or with an equity value less than $50 million should collectively be a small component of a balanced portfolio, with smaller individual investment sizes than otherwise. Investors are responsible for their own investment decisions, unless a contract stipulates otherwise. BSCP does not stand behind the capital value or performance of any investment. Subject to any terms implied by law and which cannot be excluded, BSCP shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the information (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise) or for any loss or damage (whether direct or indirect) suffered by persons who use or rely on the information. If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, BSCP limits its liability to the re-supply of the Information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. Disclosures Dr Chris Baker, an authorised representative of BSCP, certifies that the advice in this report reflects his honest view of the company. He has 29 years investment experience in wholesale capital markets. He worked as a mining analyst for brokers BZW and UBS for 11 years and has a further 16 years’ experience as a mining analyst and portfolio manager with Colonial First State and Caledonia Investments. He now provides independent financial advice on a part time basis. He may own securities in companies he recommends but will declare this when providing advice. He currently owns shares in GPX. He is remunerated by BSCP but is not paid a specific fee for providing this report. BSCP are Corporate Advisors to GPX and receive fees from GPX for services provided. BSCP, its directors and consultants may own shares and options in GPX and may, from time to time, buy and sell the securities of GPX. BSCP earned fees from capital raisings undertaken by GPX.

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US Disclaimer: This investment research is distributed in the United States by Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd and in certain instances by Enclave Capital LLC (Enclave), a U.S.-registered broker-dealer, only to major U.S. institutional investors, as defined in Rule 15a-6 promulgated under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, and as interpreted by the staff of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. This investment research is not intended for use by any person or entity that is not a major U.S. institutional investor. If you have received a copy of this research and are not a major U.S. institutional investor, you are instructed not to read, rely on or reproduce the contents hereof, and to destroy this research or return it to Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd or to Enclave. The analyst(s) preparing this report are employees of Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd who are resident outside the United States and are not associated persons or employees of any U.S. registered broker-dealer. Therefore, the analyst(s) are not subject to Rule 2711 of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) or to Regulation AC adopted by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which among other things, restrict communications with a subject company, public appearances and personal trading in securities by a research analyst. Any major U.S. institutional investor wishing to effect transactions in any securities referred to herein or options thereon should do so by contacting a representative of Enclave. Enclave is a broker-dealer registered with the SEC and a member of FINRA and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation. Its address is 19 West 44th Street, Suite 1700, New York, NY 10036 and its telephone number is 646-454-8600. Bridge Street Capital Partners Pty Ltd is not affiliated with Enclave or any other U.S. registered broker-dealer


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