47
Grayson Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation 2006 Load Forecast Prepared by: East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc. Forecasting and Market Analysis Department July 2006
Grayson Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation
2006 Load Forecast
Prepared by:
East Kentucky Power Cooperative, Inc.
Forecasting and Market Analysis Department
July 2006
2
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3
Table of Contents
• Introduction and Executive Summary 5
• Narrative 16
• Key Assumptions 18
• Methodology and Results 26
– Residential Forecast 31
– Small Commercial 36
– Large Commercial 38
– Other 40
– Peak Day Weather Scenarios 43
• RUS Form 341 46
Page Number
4
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IntroductionExecutive Summary
Grayson Rural Electric Cooperative Corporation (Grayson RECC), located in Grayson, Kentucky, is an electric distribution cooperative that serves members in six counties in Kentucky. This load forecast report contains Grayson RECC’s long-range forecast of energy and peak demand.
Grayson RECC and its power supplier, East Kentucky Power Cooperative (EKPC), worked jointly to prepare the load forecast. Factors considered in preparing the forecast include the national and local economy, population and housing trends, service area industrial development, electric price, household income, weather, and appliance efficiency changes.
EKPC prepared a preliminary load forecast, which was reviewed by Grayson RECC for reasonability. Final projections reflect a rigorous analysis of historical data combined with the experience and judgment of the manager and staff of Grayson RECC. Key assumptions are reported beginning on page 18.
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Executive Summary (continued)
The load forecast is prepared biannually as part of the overall planning cycle at EKPC and Grayson RECC. Cooperation helps to ensure that the forecast meets both parties’ needs. Grayson RECC uses the forecast in developing two-year work plans, long-range work plans, and financial forecasts. EKPC uses the forecast in areas of marketing analysis, transmission planning, generation planning, demand-side planning, and financial forecasting.
The complete load forecast for Grayson RECC is reported in
Table 1-1. Residential and commercial sales, total purchases, winter and summer peak demands, and load factor are presented for the years 1990 through 2025.
8
Year
ResidentialSales
(MWh)
SeasonalSales
(MWh)
SmallComm.Sales
(MWh)
Public Buildings (MWh)
LargeComm.Sales
(MWh)
OtherSales
(MWh)
TotalSales
(MWh)
OfficeUse
(MWh)%
Loss
PurchasedPower(MWh)
1990 99,775 0 24,917 0 0 54 124,746 0 7.6 134,9631991 108,329 0 27,541 0 12,511 55 148,436 0 8.3 161,8201992 111,289 0 28,098 0 16,658 56 156,102 0 7.6 169,0001993 121,453 0 32,268 0 15,857 68 169,646 0 7.8 184,0531994 123,646 0 31,785 0 14,664 70 170,165 0 7.3 183,5811995 134,204 0 34,049 0 16,246 71 184,569 0 6.8 198,0131996 141,136 0 35,127 0 16,819 71 193,154 0 6.3 206,2501997 141,902 0 35,184 0 18,134 73 195,293 0 6.8 209,6481998 144,608 0 36,269 0 18,502 73 199,452 0 6.2 212,6631999 151,055 0 38,784 0 18,389 76 208,304 0 6.7 223,1582000 160,185 0 41,675 0 18,067 77 220,004 0 5.9 233,8982001 164,833 0 44,052 0 18,454 77 227,415 0 3.8 236,4212002 176,446 0 48,462 0 18,404 77 243,390 0 3.8 253,1132003 174,698 0 47,977 0 19,156 79 241,912 0 4.1 252,3092004 176,120 0 51,626 0 18,388 80 246,214 0 6.6 263,5522005 187,260 0 56,561 0 17,532 80 261,433 0 5.9 277,8152006 186,404 0 56,797 0 18,209 83 261,493 0 5.9 277,8892007 190,855 0 58,533 0 18,343 84 267,816 0 5.9 284,6082008 194,520 0 59,773 0 18,467 85 272,846 0 5.9 289,9532009 198,506 0 60,929 0 18,587 87 278,108 0 5.9 295,5462010 202,201 0 61,902 0 18,702 88 282,893 0 5.9 300,6302011 205,377 0 62,638 0 18,813 89 286,918 0 5.9 304,9072012 209,272 0 63,352 0 18,925 91 291,640 0 5.9 309,9262013 213,122 0 64,144 0 19,035 92 296,393 0 5.9 314,9772014 216,639 0 64,925 0 19,145 93 300,802 0 5.9 319,6622015 220,089 0 65,681 0 19,257 95 305,122 0 5.9 324,2532016 223,734 0 66,499 0 19,369 96 309,698 0 5.9 329,1162017 227,063 0 67,533 0 19,483 97 314,177 0 5.9 333,8752018 230,614 0 68,710 0 19,595 99 319,018 0 5.9 339,0202019 234,512 0 69,948 0 19,708 100 324,268 0 5.9 344,5992020 239,051 0 71,187 0 19,820 101 330,160 0 5.9 350,8612021 243,545 0 72,480 0 19,933 103 336,060 0 5.9 357,1312022 247,861 0 73,813 0 28,303 104 350,082 0 5.9 372,0312023 252,079 0 75,110 0 28,414 105 355,708 0 5.9 378,0112024 256,722 0 76,398 0 28,526 107 361,753 0 5.9 384,4352025 260,775 0 77,639 0 28,634 108 367,156 0 5.9 390,177
2006 Load ForecastGrayson RECC
MWh Summary
Table 1-1
9
Winter Summer
Season
NoncoincidentPeak Demand
(MW) Year
NoncoincidentPeak Demand
(MW) Year
PurchasedPower(MWh)
Load Factor(%)
1989 - 90 32.1 1990 27.8 1990 134,963 48.0%1990 - 91 34.0 1991 32.3 1991 161,820 54.3%1991 - 92 37.9 1992 32.1 1992 169,000 50.9%1992 - 93 39.9 1993 37.8 1993 184,053 52.6%1993 - 94 50.1 1994 36.4 1994 183,581 41.8%1994 - 95 45.9 1995 42.0 1995 198,013 49.3%1995 - 96 53.1 1996 40.5 1996 206,250 44.3%1996 - 97 51.0 1997 43.0 1997 209,648 46.9%1997 - 98 47.1 1998 44.1 1998 212,663 51.5%1998 - 99 55.0 1999 50.7 1999 223,158 46.3%1999 - 00 59.5 2000 46.2 2000 233,898 44.9%2000 - 01 65.2 2001 51.2 2001 236,421 41.4%2001 - 02 58.6 2002 52.0 2002 253,113 49.3%2002 - 03 64.5 2003 50.1 2003 252,309 44.7%2003 - 04 68.7 2004 50.0 2004 263,552 43.8%2004 - 05 70.4 2005 56.3 2005 277,815 45.0%
2005 - 06 67.2 2006 56.8 2006 277,889 47.2%
2006 - 07 71.9 2007 57.7 2007 284,608 45.2%2007 - 08 72.9 2008 58.5 2008 289,953 45.4%2008 - 09 74.5 2009 59.7 2009 295,546 45.3%2009 - 10 75.8 2010 60.7 2010 300,630 45.3%2010 - 11 76.8 2011 61.4 2011 304,907 45.3%2011 - 12 77.8 2012 62.1 2012 309,926 45.5%2012 - 13 79.3 2013 63.2 2013 314,977 45.3%2013 - 14 80.5 2014 64.0 2014 319,662 45.4%2014 - 15 81.6 2015 64.8 2015 324,253 45.4%2015- 16 82.5 2016 65.5 2016 329,116 45.5%2016 - 17 83.9 2017 66.6 2017 333,875 45.4%2017 - 18 85.2 2018 67.6 2018 339,020 45.4%2018 - 19 86.5 2019 68.7 2019 344,599 45.5%2019-2020 87.8 2020 69.7 2020 350,861 45.6%2020-2021 89.5 2021 71.1 2021 357,131 45.5%2021-2022 92.3 2022 73.8 2022 372,031 46.0%2022-2023 93.7 2023 75.0 2023 378,011 46.0%2023-2024 95.0 2024 76.0 2024 384,435 46.2%2024-2025 96.6 2025 77.3 2025 390,177 46.1%
Grayson RECC2006 Load Forecast
Peaks Summary
Table 1-1 (continued)
10
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Executive Summary (continued)
Overall Results
• Total sales are projected to grow by 1.7 percent a year for the period 2005-2025, compared to a 2.5 percent growth projected in the 2004 load forecast for the period 2004-2024. Results shown in Table 1-2 and Figure 1-1.
• Winter and summer peak demands for the same period indicate annual growth of 1.8 and 1.6 percent, respectively. Annual peaks shown in Figure 1-2.
• Load factor will remain steady at approximately 45% for the forecast period. See Figure 1-3.
12
Executive SummaryOverall Results (continued)
TimePeriod Residential
Small Commercial
Large Commercial Other
Total Sales
1995-2000 3.6% 4.1% 2.1% 1.5% 3.6%2000-2005 3.2% 6.3% -0.6% 1.0% 3.5%2005-2010 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.8% 1.6%2010-2015 1.7% 1.2% 0.6% 1.5% 1.5%2015-2020 1.7% 1.6% 0.6% 1.4% 1.6%2020-2025 1.8% 1.8% 7.6% 1.3% 2.1%
1995-2005 3.4% 5.2% 0.8% 1.3% 3.5%2005-2015 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 1.7% 1.6%2015-2025 1.7% 1.7% 4.0% 1.3% 1.9%
10 Year Growth Rates
5 Year Growth Rates
Grayson RECC2006 Load Forecast
Summary of Sales Growth
Table 1-2
13
Figure 1-1 Average Annual Growth in Sales 2005-2025
1.7% 1.6%
2.5%
1.7%
1.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
Residential Small Commercial
Large Commercial
Other Total Sales
14
Figure 1-2Peak Demand ForecastWinter and Summer
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Su
m O
f S
ub
stat
ion
s P
eak
Dem
and
(M
W)
Winter History Winter Forecast Summer History Summer Forecast
15
Figure 1-3Annual System Load Factor
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
16
Narrative Grayson RECC MembersDemographic Information
• There is an average of 2.20 people per household.
• 60% of all homes are headed by someone age 55 or greater.
• 26% of homes have farm operations, with beef cattle being most popular.
• 28% of all homes served are less than 10 years old.
17
Narrative (continued) Counties Served
Grayson RECC presently serves members in 6 counties.
Figure 1-4
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
Other Counties (2)
Rowan County
Greenup County
Elliott County
Carter County
Number of Members
18
Key AssumptionsPower Cost and Rates
• EKPC’s wholesale power cost forecast used in this load forecast comes from the following report: “Twenty-Year Financial Forecast, Equity Development Plan, 2006-2025”, dated January 2006.
19
Key Assumptions (continued)Economic
EKPC’s source for economic forecasts is DRI-WEFA.
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
(%) Change
1990 249,842 -0.2% 111,918 5.7% 75,323 4.1% 8.6% 6.5% $27,581 -2.6% $4,744 0.8% $18,987 1.1%
1991 251,534 0.7% 112,873 0.9% 75,144 -0.2% 11.4% 32.7% $26,829 -2.7% $4,816 1.5% $19,147 0.8%
1992 253,735 0.9% 112,902 0.0% 77,721 3.4% 10.4% -8.4% $27,420 2.2% $4,993 3.7% $19,678 2.8%
1993 255,654 0.8% 114,691 1.6% 77,336 -0.5% 11.0% 5.3% $27,052 -1.3% $4,920 -1.5% $19,246 -2.2%
1994 257,025 0.5% 114,732 0.0% 78,883 2.0% 9.3% -15.1% $27,187 0.5% $5,003 1.7% $19,466 1.1%
1995 258,584 0.6% 116,654 1.7% 80,808 2.4% 8.7% -6.7% $26,965 -0.8% $4,980 -0.5% $19,259 -1.1%
1996 260,129 0.6% 116,499 -0.1% 82,449 2.0% 7.9% -9.5% $27,095 0.5% $5,110 2.6% $19,645 2.0%
1997 261,885 0.7% 120,218 3.2% 83,924 1.8% 8.0% 1.9% $27,328 0.9% $5,301 3.7% $20,243 3.0%
1998 263,674 0.7% 121,876 1.4% 85,737 2.2% 6.7% -15.9% $27,219 -0.4% $5,496 3.7% $20,842 3.0%
1999 265,250 0.6% 123,811 1.6% 86,435 0.8% 7.1% 5.2% $27,387 0.6% $5,536 0.7% $20,872 0.1%
2000 266,781 0.6% 122,111 -1.4% 87,664 1.4% 6.2% -12.4% $27,278 -0.4% $5,829 5.3% $21,849 4.7%
2001 268,031 0.5% 122,316 0.2% 86,834 -0.9% 7.7% 23.4% $27,429 0.6% $5,704 -2.1% $21,281 -2.6%
2002 268,990 0.4% 120,773 -1.3% 86,943 0.1% 6.6% -14.4% $28,039 2.2% $5,881 3.1% $21,862 2.7%
2003 270,356 0.5% 125,429 3.9% 89,410 2.8% 7.1% 8.8% $28,262 0.8% $5,990 1.9% $22,157 1.3%
2004 270,715 0.1% 125,728 0.2% 89,757 0.4% 6.3% -11.0% $28,609 1.2% $6,036 0.8% $22,297 0.6%
2005 271,701 0.4% 126,543 0.6% 90,703 1.1% 5.8% -9.3% $28,808 0.7% $6,078 0.7% $22,370 0.3%
2006 272,759 0.4% 127,452 0.7% 91,759 1.2% 5.4% -6.0% $28,609 -0.7% $6,127 0.8% $22,464 0.4%
2007 273,790 0.4% 128,380 0.7% 92,836 1.2% 5.4% 0.5% $28,808 0.7% $6,188 1.0% $22,600 0.6%
2008 274,734 0.3% 129,191 0.6% 93,778 1.0% 5.3% -3.2% $28,942 0.5% $6,246 0.9% $22,736 0.6%
2009 275,564 0.3% 129,926 0.6% 94,631 0.9% 5.1% -2.1% $29,029 0.3% $6,309 1.0% $22,895 0.7%
2010 276,368 0.3% 130,488 0.4% 95,284 0.7% 5.3% 2.4% $29,097 0.2% $6,371 1.0% $23,053 0.7%
2015 280,228 0.3% 133,083 0.4% 98,297 0.6% 5.5% 0.7% $29,226 0.1% $6,688 1.0% $23,868 0.7%
2020 284,335 0.3% 137,055 0.6% 102,908 0.9% 5.0% -1.7% $29,314 0.1% $7,076 1.1% $24,887 0.8%
2025 288,583 0.3% 141,478 0.6% 108,043 1.0% 5.1% 0.2% $29,346 0.0% $7,495 1.2% $25,971 0.9%
2030 292,834 0.3% 145,469 0.6% 112,678 0.8% 5.1% 0.0% $29,352 0.0% $7,899 1.1% $26,976 0.8%
Notes: Wages & Per Capita Income are in constant 2006 dollars; Income is in millions of constant 2005 dollars.
Growth rates are average annual changes. Data for 2004 and 2005 are simulated.
Regional SummaryNorth East Economic Region History and Forecast
Unemployment Rate
Regional Income
Population Labor ForceTotal
EmploymentAverage Real
Wages
Forecast
Long-Term Forecast
Actual
Real Per Capita Income
20
Key Assumptions (continued)Share of Regional Homes Served
Figure 1-5
Grayson RECC’s market share will increase for the forecast period.
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
92
19
93
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
99
20
00
20
02
20
03
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
09
20
10
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
16
20
17
20
19
20
20
20
22
20
23
20
24
Sh
are
(%
)
21
Key Assumptions (continued)Household IncomeMembers’ Greatest Sources
Figure 1-6
Agriculture3%
Education4%
Construction9%
Manufacturing5%
Retail & Service9%
Retirement55%
Other15%
22
Key Assumptions (continued)Appliance Saturations
• Room air conditioner saturation is expected to remain flat at approximately 30percent.
• Appliance efficiency trends are accounted for in the model. The data is collected from Energy Information Administration, (EIA). See Figure 1-7.
23
Key Assumptions (continued)Saturation Rates Non HVAC Appliances
• Microwave Oven 97%
• Electric Range 94%
• Dishwasher 40%
• Freezer 61%
• Clothes Dryer 95%
• Personal Computer 46%
24
Key Assumptions (continued)Figure 1-7
Residential Appliance Efficiency Trends East South Central Region
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
Eff
icie
nc
y R
ati
ng
Heat Pump Heating (HSPF)
Heat Pump Cooling (SEER)
Central Air (SEER)
Room Air (EER)
Water Heating (EF)
All of the projections are very similar to what was used in the 2004 Load Forecast. However, the 2004 Load Forecast assumption was just below 8 by 2024 whereas this update shows the trend continuing above 8.
Source: Energy Information Administration (EIA) Efficiency Trend Update, 2005
25
Key Assumptions (continued)Weather
• Weather data is from the Huntington weather station.
• Normal weather, a 30-year average of historical temperatures, is assumed for the forecast years.
26
Methodology and ResultsIntroduction
This section briefly describes the methodology used to develop the load forecast and presents results in tabular and graphical form for residential and commercial classifications. Table 1-3 through Table 1-5 shows historical data for Grayson RECC as reported on RUS Form 736 and RUS Form 5.
A preliminary forecast is prepared during the first quarter depending on when Grayson RECC experiences its winter peak. The first step is modeling the regional economy. Population, income, and employment are among the areas analyzed. The regional model results are used in combination with the historical billing information, appliance saturation data, appliance efficiency data, and weather data to develop the long range forecast.
27
Table 1-3
YearkWh Purchased
And GeneratedChange kWh Sold Change kWh Loss % Loss
Annual
Load
Factor
Average
Number Of
Consumers
Miles
Of
Line
Consumers
Per Mile
Cost Of
Purchased Power
Cents
/ kWh
1993 184,053,282 169,646,080 14,407,202 7.8% 52.3% 12,157 2,166 5.6 $7,407,688 4.0
1994 183,580,771 -0.3% 170,164,603 0.3% 13,416,168 7.3% 40.4% 12,410 2,188 5.7 $7,548,326 4.1
1995 198,012,600 7.9% 184,569,099 8.5% 13,443,501 6.8% 49.3% 12,700 2,210 5.7 $6,967,972 3.5
1996 206,249,769 4.2% 193,153,533 4.7% 13,096,236 6.3% 44.7% 12,982 2,226 5.8 $6,963,630 3.4
1997 209,647,586 1.6% 195,293,259 1.1% 14,354,327 6.8% 39.9% 13,214 2,245 5.9 $7,005,382 3.3
1998 212,662,922 1.4% 199,452,075 2.1% 13,210,847 6.2% 53.2% 13,558 2,264 6.0 $7,155,239 3.4
1999 223,157,678 4.9% 208,303,880 4.4% 14,853,798 6.7% 47.1% 14,115 2,286 6.2 $7,943,822 3.6
2000 233,898,374 4.8% 220,004,177 5.6% 13,894,197 5.9% 46.8% 14,126 2,309 6.1 $8,535,706 3.6
2001 236,421,430 1.1% 227,415,106 3.4% 9,006,324 3.8% 45.5% 14,360 2,334 6.2 $9,255,349 4.0
2002 253,113,145 7.1% 243,389,736 7.0% 9,723,409 3.8% 50.3% 14,673 2,357 6.2 $9,731,363 3.8
2003 252,309,335 -0.3% 241,913,737 -0.6% 10,395,598 4.1% 46.5% 14,827 2,377 6.2 $10,147,008 4.0
2004 263,552,482 4.5% 246,214,313 1.8% 17,338,169 6.6% 44.4% 15,113 2,400 6.3 $11,697,993 4.4
2005 277,814,556 5.4% 261,432,545 6.2% 16,382,011 5.9% 49.3% 15,302 2,416 6.3 $14,441,797 5.2
5.9% 3.9
67.7
64.3
57.1
59.3
57.5
61.9
Average
Grayson RECC Comparative Annual Operating DataPeak
Demand
(MW)
40.1
51.9
45.9
60.0
52.7
45.7
54.1
28
Table 1-4
Year kWh Sales%
ChangekWh Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
ChangekWh Sales
%
Change
kWh
Sales
%
Change
1993 121,453,202 0 32,268,128 15,856,800 67,950 0
1994 123,645,749 1.8% 0 31,784,654 -1.5% 14,664,000 -7.5% 70,200 3.3% 0
1995 134,203,618 8.5% 0 34,048,946 7.1% 16,245,600 10.8% 70,935 1.0% 0
1996 141,136,414 5.2% 0 35,126,737 3.2% 16,819,200 3.5% 71,182 0.3% 0
1997 141,901,541 0.5% 0 35,184,409 0.2% 18,134,409 7.8% 72,900 2.4% 0
1998 144,608,386 1.9% 0 36,269,039 3.1% 18,501,600 2.0% 73,050 0.2% 0
1999 151,055,191 4.5% 0 38,783,839 6.9% 18,388,800 -0.6% 76,050 4.1% 0
2000 160,185,496 6.0% 0 41,674,981 7.5% 18,067,200 -1.7% 76,500 0.6% 0
2001 164,833,331 2.9% 0 44,051,675 5.7% 18,453,600 2.1% 76,500 0.0% 0
2002 176,445,772 7.0% 0 48,462,370 10.0% 18,404,344 -0.3% 77,250 1.0% 0
2003 174,698,419 -1.0% 0 47,979,579 -1.0% 19,156,464 4.1% 79,275 2.6% 0
2004 176,119,896 0.8% 0 51,625,853 7.6% 18,388,464 -4.0% 80,100 1.0% 0
2005 187,259,717 6.3% 0 56,560,764 9.6% 17,531,664 -4.7% 80,400 0.4% 0
2 Year 6,280,649 3.5% 4,290,593 8.6% -812,400 -4.3% 563 0.7%
5 Year 5,414,844 3.2% 2,977,157 6.3% -107,107 -0.6% 780 1.0%
10 Year 5,305,610 3.4% 2,251,182 5.2% 128,606 0.8% 947 1.3%
Average Annual Change
Grayson RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data
ResidentialResidential
Seasonal
Commercial /
I ndustrial
(1 MW Or Less)
Commercial /
I ndustrial
( Over 1 MW)
Public Street /
Highway Lighting
Public
Authorities
29
Table 1-5
Year Consumerskwh /
Mo.Consumers
kwh /
Mo.Consumers
kwh /
Mo.Consumers kwh / Mo. Consumers
kwh /
Mo.Consumers
kwh /
Mo.
1993 11,175 906 0 980 2,744 1 1,321,400 1 5,663 0
1994 11,439 901 0 969 2,733 1 1,222,000 1 5,850 0
1995 11,702 956 0 996 2,849 1 1,353,800 1 5,911 0
1996 11,976 982 0 1,004 2,916 1 1,401,600 1 5,932 0
1997 12,199 969 0 1,013 2,894 1 1,511,201 1 6,075 0
1998 12,424 970 0 1,132 2,670 1 1,541,800 1 6,088 0
1999 12,935 973 0 1,178 2,744 1 1,532,400 1 6,338 0
2000 12,974 1,029 0 1,150 3,020 1 1,505,600 1 6,375 0
2001 13,183 1,042 0 1,175 3,124 1 1,537,800 1 6,375 0
2002 13,470 1,092 0 1,201 3,363 1 1,533,695 1 6,438 0
2003 13,632 1,068 0 1,193 3,351 1 1,596,372 1 6,606 0
2004 13,909 1,055 0 1,202 3,579 1 1,532,372 1 6,675 0
2005 14,067 1,109 0 1,233 3,823 1 1,460,972 1 6,700 0
10 Year Avg. 237 15 24 97 0 10,717 0 79
5 Year Avg. 219 16 17 161 0 -8,926 0 65
2 Year Avg. 218 21 20 236 0 -67,700 0 47
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Consumers 264 263 274 223 225 511 39 209 287 162 277 158
kWh/ month -5 55 26 -13 1 3 56 13 50 -24 -13 54
Annual Changes I n Grayson RECC's Residential Class
Grayson RECC Comparative Annual Operating Data
ResidentialResidential
Seasonal
Commercial /
I ndustrial
(1 MW Or Less)
Commercial /
I ndustrial
( Over 1 MW)
Public Street /
Highway LightingPublic Authorities
30
Methodology and Results (continued)
The preliminary forecast was presented to Grayson RECC staff, and reviewed by the Rural Utilities Services (RUS) Field Representative. Changes were made to the forecast as needed based on new information, such as new large loads or subdivisions. In some instances, other assumptions were changed based on insights from Grayson RECC staff. Input from EKPC and Grayson RECC results in the best possible forecast.
31
Methodology and Results (continued)Residential Forecast
Residential customers are analyzed by means of regression analysis with resulting coefficients used to prepare customer projections. Regressions for residential customers are typically a function of regional economic and demographic variables. Two variables that are very significant are the numbers of households by county in each member system's economic region and the percent of total households served by the member system. Table 1-6 and Figure 1-8 report Grayson RECC’s customer forecast.
The residential energy sales were projected using a statistically adjusted end-use (SAE) approach. This method of modeling incorporates end-use forecasts and can be used to allocate the monthly and annual forecasts into end-use components. This method, like end-use modeling, requires detailed information about appliance saturation, appliance use, appliance efficiencies, household characteristics, weather characteristics, and demographic and economic information. The SAE approach segments the average household use into heating, cooling, and water heating end-use components. See Figure 1-9. This model accounts for appliance efficiency improvements. Table 1-6 reports Grayson RECC’s energy forecast.
32
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
MonthlyAverage(kWh)
AnnualChange(kWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 10,406 799 99,7751991 10,672 266 2.6 846 47 5.9 108,329 8,554 8.61992 10,924 252 2.4 849 3 0.4 111,289 2,960 2.71993 11,175 251 2.3 906 57 6.7 121,453 10,164 9.11994 11,439 264 2.4 901 -5 -0.5 123,646 2,193 1.81995 11,702 263 2.3 956 55 6.1 134,204 10,558 8.51996 11,976 274 2.3 982 26 2.8 141,136 6,933 5.21997 12,199 223 1.9 969 -13 -1.3 141,902 765 0.51998 12,425 226 1.9 970 1 0.1 144,608 2,707 1.91999 12,935 510 4.1 973 3 0.3 151,055 6,447 4.52000 12,974 39 0.3 1,029 56 5.7 160,185 9,130 6.02001 13,183 209 1.6 1,042 13 1.3 164,833 4,648 2.92002 13,470 287 2.2 1,092 50 4.8 176,446 11,612 7.02003 13,632 162 1.2 1,068 -24 -2.2 174,698 -1,747 -1.02004 13,909 277 2.0 1,055 -13 -1.2 176,120 1,421 0.82005 14,067 158 1.1 1,109 54 5.1 187,260 11,140 6.32006 14,240 173 1.2 1,091 -18 -1.7 186,404 -856 -0.52007 14,445 205 1.4 1,101 10 0.9 190,855 4,451 2.42008 14,644 199 1.4 1,107 6 0.5 194,520 3,665 1.92009 14,837 193 1.3 1,115 8 0.7 198,506 3,985 2.02010 15,023 186 1.3 1,122 7 0.6 202,201 3,695 1.92011 15,206 183 1.2 1,126 4 0.3 205,377 3,176 1.62012 15,391 185 1.2 1,133 8 0.7 209,272 3,895 1.92013 15,574 183 1.2 1,140 7 0.6 213,122 3,850 1.82014 15,758 184 1.2 1,146 5 0.5 216,639 3,517 1.72015 15,939 181 1.1 1,151 5 0.4 220,089 3,450 1.62016 16,121 182 1.1 1,157 6 0.5 223,734 3,645 1.72017 16,303 182 1.1 1,161 4 0.4 227,063 3,329 1.52018 16,482 179 1.1 1,166 5 0.5 230,614 3,551 1.62019 16,663 181 1.1 1,173 7 0.6 234,512 3,898 1.72020 16,849 186 1.1 1,182 10 0.8 239,051 4,539 1.92021 17,041 192 1.1 1,191 9 0.7 243,545 4,493 1.92022 17,222 181 1.1 1,199 8 0.7 247,861 4,317 1.82023 17,409 187 1.1 1,207 7 0.6 252,079 4,217 1.72024 17,598 189 1.1 1,216 9 0.7 256,722 4,644 1.82025 17,783 185 1.1 1,222 6 0.5 260,775 4,053 1.6
Grayson RECC2006 Load Forecast
Residential Summary
Table 1-6
33
Figure 1-8Annual Change in Residential Customers
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025
Nu
mb
er o
f C
ust
om
ers
34
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35
Figure 1-9
Grayson RECCResidential MWh Usage, History and Forecast
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Jan-00
Jul-00
Jan-01
Jul-01
Jan-02
Jul-02
Jan-03
Jul-03
Jan-04
Jul-04
Jan-05
Jul-05
Jan-06
Jul-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
MW
h
Other Usage Heating, Cooling and Water Heating Usage
36
Methodology and Results (continued)Small Commercial Forecast
Small commercial sales are projected using two equations, a customer equation and a small commercial sales equation. Both are determined through regression analysis and utilize inputs relating to the economy, electric price, and the residential customer forecast. Small commercial projections are reported in Table 1-7.
37
Table 1-7
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
AnnualAverage(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 976 26 24,9171991 966 -10 -1.0 29 3 11.7 27,541 2,624 10.51992 970 4 0.4 29 0 1.6 28,098 557 2.01993 980 10 1.0 33 4 13.7 32,268 4,170 14.81994 969 -11 -1.1 33 0 -0.4 31,785 -483 -1.51995 995 26 2.7 34 1 4.3 34,049 2,264 7.11996 1,004 9 0.9 35 1 2.2 35,127 1,078 3.21997 1,013 9 0.9 35 0 -0.7 35,184 58 0.21998 1,132 119 11.7 32 -3 -7.8 36,269 1,085 3.11999 1,178 46 4.1 33 1 2.8 38,784 2,515 6.92000 1,150 -28 -2.4 36 3 10.1 41,675 2,891 7.52001 1,175 25 2.2 37 1 3.5 44,052 2,377 5.72002 1,201 26 2.2 40 3 7.6 48,462 4,411 10.02003 1,193 -8 -0.7 40 0 -0.3 47,977 -485 -1.02004 1,202 9 0.8 43 3 6.8 51,626 3,648 7.62005 1,232 30 2.5 46 3 6.9 56,561 4,935 9.62006 1,244 12 1.0 46 0 -0.6 56,797 236 0.42007 1,259 15 1.2 46 1 1.8 58,533 1,736 3.12008 1,274 15 1.2 47 0 0.9 59,773 1,240 2.12009 1,289 15 1.2 47 0 0.7 60,929 1,156 1.92010 1,303 14 1.1 48 0 0.5 61,902 973 1.62011 1,317 14 1.1 48 0 0.1 62,638 737 1.22012 1,331 14 1.1 48 0 0.1 63,352 714 1.12013 1,345 14 1.1 48 0 0.2 64,144 792 1.32014 1,359 14 1.0 48 0 0.2 64,925 781 1.22015 1,373 14 1.0 48 0 0.1 65,681 756 1.22016 1,387 14 1.0 48 0 0.2 66,499 818 1.22017 1,401 14 1.0 48 0 0.5 67,533 1,034 1.62018 1,414 13 0.9 49 0 0.8 68,710 1,177 1.72019 1,428 14 1.0 49 0 0.8 69,948 1,238 1.82020 1,442 14 1.0 49 0 0.8 71,187 1,239 1.82021 1,457 15 1.0 50 0 0.8 72,480 1,292 1.82022 1,471 14 1.0 50 0 0.9 73,813 1,333 1.82023 1,485 14 1.0 51 0 0.8 75,110 1,297 1.82024 1,499 14 0.9 51 0 0.8 76,398 1,288 1.72025 1,513 14 0.9 51 0 0.7 77,639 1,241 1.6
Grayson RECC2006 Load Forecast
Small Commercial Summary
38
Methodology and Results (continued)Large Commercial Forecast
Large commercial customers are those with loads 1 MW or greater. Grayson RECC currently has 1 customer in this class and is projected to increase to 2 customers by 2025. Large commercial results are reported in Table 1-8.
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Table 1-8
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
Annual Average(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 0 0 01991 1 1 #DIV/0! 12,511 12,511 #DIV/0! 12,511 12,511 #DIV/0!1992 1 0 0.0 16,658 4,147 33.1 16,658 4,147 33.11993 1 0 0.0 15,857 -802 -4.8 15,857 -802 -4.81994 1 0 0.0 14,664 -1,193 -7.5 14,664 -1,193 -7.51995 1 0 0.0 16,246 1,582 10.8 16,246 1,582 10.81996 1 0 0.0 16,819 574 3.5 16,819 574 3.51997 1 0 0.0 18,134 1,315 7.8 18,134 1,315 7.81998 1 0 0.0 18,502 367 2.0 18,502 367 2.01999 1 0 0.0 18,389 -113 -0.6 18,389 -113 -0.62000 1 0 0.0 18,067 -322 -1.7 18,067 -322 -1.72001 1 0 0.0 18,454 386 2.1 18,454 386 2.12002 1 0 0.0 18,404 -49 -0.3 18,404 -49 -0.32003 1 0 0.0 19,156 752 4.1 19,156 752 4.12004 1 0 0.0 18,388 -768 -4.0 18,388 -768 -4.02005 1 0 0.0 17,532 -857 -4.7 17,532 -857 -4.72006 1 0 0.0 18,209 678 3.9 18,209 678 3.92007 1 0 0.0 18,343 134 0.7 18,343 134 0.72008 1 0 0.0 18,467 123 0.7 18,467 123 0.72009 1 0 0.0 18,587 120 0.6 18,587 120 0.62010 1 0 0.0 18,702 115 0.6 18,702 115 0.62011 1 0 0.0 18,813 111 0.6 18,813 111 0.62012 1 0 0.0 18,925 112 0.6 18,925 112 0.62013 1 0 0.0 19,035 110 0.6 19,035 110 0.62014 1 0 0.0 19,145 110 0.6 19,145 110 0.62015 1 0 0.0 19,257 112 0.6 19,257 112 0.62016 1 0 0.0 19,369 112 0.6 19,369 112 0.62017 1 0 0.0 19,483 114 0.6 19,483 114 0.62018 1 0 0.0 19,595 112 0.6 19,595 112 0.62019 1 0 0.0 19,708 112 0.6 19,708 112 0.62020 1 0 0.0 19,820 112 0.6 19,820 112 0.62021 1 0 0.0 19,933 113 0.6 19,933 113 0.62022 2 1 100.0 14,152 -5,781 -29.0 28,303 8,370 42.02023 2 0 0.0 14,207 55 0.4 28,414 111 0.42024 2 0 0.0 14,263 56 0.4 28,526 112 0.42025 2 0 0.0 14,317 54 0.4 28,634 108 0.4
Grayson RECC2006 Load Forecast
Large Commercial Summary
40
Methodology and Results (continued)Other Forecast
On the RUS Form 7, Grayson RECC reports an ‘Other’ class which includes street lights. Results are reported in Table 1-9.
41
Table 1-9
Customers Use Per Customer Class Sales
AnnualAverage
AnnualChange
%Change
MonthlyAverage(kWh)
AnnualChange(kWh)
%Change
Total(MWh)
AnnualChange(MWh)
%Change
1990 1 4,500 541991 1 0 0.0 4,588 88 1.9 55 1 1.91992 1 0 0.0 4,693 105 2.3 56 1 2.31993 1 0 0.0 5,663 970 20.7 68 12 20.71994 1 0 0.0 5,850 188 3.3 70 2 3.31995 1 0 0.0 5,911 61 1.0 71 1 1.01996 1 0 0.0 5,932 21 0.3 71 0 0.31997 1 0 0.0 6,075 143 2.4 73 2 2.41998 1 0 0.0 6,088 13 0.2 73 0 0.21999 1 0 0.0 6,338 250 4.1 76 3 4.12000 1 0 0.0 6,375 38 0.6 77 0 0.62001 1 0 0.0 6,375 0 0.0 77 0 0.02002 1 0 0.0 6,438 63 1.0 77 1 1.02003 1 0 0.0 6,606 169 2.6 79 2 2.62004 1 0 0.0 6,675 69 1.0 80 1 1.02005 1 0 0.0 6,700 25 0.4 80 0 0.42006 1 0 0.0 6,887 187 2.8 83 2 2.82007 1 0 0.0 6,999 112 1.6 84 1 1.62008 1 0 0.0 7,110 112 1.6 85 1 1.62009 1 0 0.0 7,222 112 1.6 87 1 1.62010 1 0 0.0 7,334 112 1.5 88 1 1.52011 1 0 0.0 7,446 112 1.5 89 1 1.52012 1 0 0.0 7,558 112 1.5 91 1 1.52013 1 0 0.0 7,670 112 1.5 92 1 1.52014 1 0 0.0 7,782 112 1.5 93 1 1.52015 1 0 0.0 7,894 112 1.4 95 1 1.42016 1 0 0.0 8,005 112 1.4 96 1 1.42017 1 0 0.0 8,117 112 1.4 97 1 1.42018 1 0 0.0 8,229 112 1.4 99 1 1.42019 1 0 0.0 8,341 112 1.4 100 1 1.42020 1 0 0.0 8,453 112 1.3 101 1 1.32021 1 0 0.0 8,565 112 1.3 103 1 1.32022 1 0 0.0 8,677 112 1.3 104 1 1.32023 1 0 0.0 8,789 112 1.3 105 1 1.32024 1 0 0.0 8,900 112 1.3 107 1 1.32025 1 0 0.0 9,012 112 1.3 108 1 1.3
Grayson RECC2006 Load Forecast
Other Summary
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43
Methodology and Results (continued)Peak Day Weather Scenarios
Extreme temperatures can dramatically influence Grayson RECC’s peak demands. Table 1-10 and Figure 1-10 reports the impact of extreme weather on system demands.
44
Table 1-10
Winter Peak Day Minimum Temperatures Summer Peak Day Maximum Temperatures
Mild Normal Extreme Normal Extreme
Degrees 10 -2 -9 -14 -21 Degrees 95 98 100 103
Probability 99% 50% 20% 10% 3% Probability 50% 20% 10% 3%
Occurs Once Every 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years 2 Years 5 Years 10 Years 30 Years
Noncoincident Winter Peak Demand - MW Noncoincident Summer Peak Demand - MW
Season Mild Normal Extreme Year Normal Extreme
2006 57 63 67 73
2006 - 07 64 72 77 80 85 2007 58 64 68 74
2007 - 08 64 73 78 81 86 2008 59 65 69 75
2008 - 09 66 75 80 83 88 2009 60 66 70 76
2009 - 10 67 76 81 85 90 2010 61 67 71 78
2010 - 11 68 77 82 86 91 2011 61 68 72 79
2011 - 12 69 78 83 87 92 2012 62 69 73 80
2012 - 13 70 79 85 88 94 2013 63 70 74 81
2013 - 14 71 80 86 90 95 2014 64 71 75 82
2014 - 15 72 82 87 91 97 2015 65 72 76 83
2015- 16 73 83 88 92 98 2016 66 72 77 84
2016 - 17 74 84 90 94 99 2017 67 74 78 85
2017 - 18 75 85 91 95 101 2018 68 75 80 87
2018 - 19 76 87 92 97 102 2019 69 76 81 88
2019-2020 78 88 94 98 104 2020 70 77 82 89
2020-2021 79 90 96 100 106 2021 71 79 84 91
2021-2022 82 92 98 103 109 2022 74 81 86 94
2022-2023 83 94 100 104 111 2023 75 83 88 96
2023-2024 84 95 101 106 112 2024 76 84 89 97
2024-2025 86 97 103 108 114 2025 77 85 91 99
Grayson RECCPeak Day Weather Scenarios
45
Figure 1-10
Grayson RECC- Normal Peaks And T&D Planning Peaks
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
Pea
k M
W
Actual Winter Normal Winter 10% Case - Winter Actual Summer Normal Summer 10% Case - Summer
46
RUS Form 341
47
Form 341Form 341
