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THE IMPACT OF THE DEVELOPMENT

OF MYANMAR ON THE PROBABILITY

OF RETURN MIGRATION

Mya Mya Thet

Master Student, International College of NIDA

Prof. Piriya Pholphirul

Supervisor, International College of NIDA

+Introduction

What is return migration?

People return to the home country after

working or staying in foreign country.

What is the development of Myanmar?

Changes in Myanmar due to economic,

political and social reform

+Research questions?

Are the development of Myanmar related to

the possibility of return migration?

Which development factors can attract

Myanmar migrants to return?

+Literature Review

Barcevicius et.al. (2012) – economic, social and political factors inthe home country

Grazhdani (2013) - the increased political and economic stability inthe home country and the increased in economic insecurity in thehost country

Bassina (2012) - pull factors of the home country is more importantthan push factors of the host country

Chantavanich and Vungsiriphisal (2012) –political stability anddemocratic freedom and economic opportunities in the homecountry

Myint (2013) - political reforms, policy changes and economicopenness as the pull factors of return migration

IOM (2013) - actual return migration is concerned better incomeand satisfied working conditions and duration of stay

+Conceptual Model:

Social

Development

Economic

Development

Political

Development

Return

migration

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+Data

Primary data by distributing questionnaire to

Myanmar migrant workers working in Samut

Prakan, Min Buri, Bangkok and Samut

Sakhon, Thailand.

Data is collected between January 2014 and

March 2014.

A total number of respondents: 433 Myanmar

migrant workers

+Respondent Information

Male73%

Female27%

Gender

+Respondent Information

43.40% 42.70%

11.80%

2.10%

15-24 yr 25-33 yr 34-43 yr 44-53 yr

Age

+Respondent Information

2.80%

12%

41.80%

37.60%

5.80%

No Education Elementary LowerSecondary

High andVocational

School

BachelorDegree

Educational Background

+Respondent Information

Agriculture3%

Fishery3% Mechanics

7%

Manufacturing45%

Services5%

Seller5%

Construction17%

Domestic Worker

8%

Cleaner2%

Other5%

Occupation

+Respondent Information

78.10%

20%

1.60% 0.20%

6,000-10,000Baht

10,001-15,000Baht

15,001-20,000Baht

Over 20,000 Baht

Salary

+Respondent Information

77.10%

15.90%

5.10%2.10%

1-4 yr 5-8 yr 9-12 yr 12 yr above

Duration of Stay

+Econometrics Estimation and Results

Dependent variable: Return migration

Independent variable: Economic

development, Political development and

Social development

Model: Probit Model

Socioeconomic control variables such as

gender, age group, marital status, occupation

and education level.

+Results

Gender has significant relationship with return. Male have a higher return than female.

The older age group is less likely to return.

Low education level has a negative significant relationship with return .

Married respondents are more likely to return than single respondents.

The respondents working in construction, fishery and agricultural sector as well as seller, cleaner and domestic workers have a positive significant relationship with return.

+Results on economic development

Return

migration

More employment

opportunities

Establish Special Economic

Zones

Reduce income tax

Better IT communication

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More foreign direct

investment

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+Results on political development

Return

migration

Implement democracy

reform

Permit Labour Organization

Deregulation

Permit strike

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Eliminate sanctions

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+ Results on social development

Return

migration

Improvement of health care

service

Improvement of education

Improvement of infrastructure

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Freedom of media

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+Conclusion

Thailand needs to set up recruitment plan to keep the experienced migrant workers or to substitute another foreign migrant workers.

Myanmar also needs to lay down return migration plan to attract its experienced workers for the labor-intensive industries to rapidly develop the country.

Besides, Myanmar still needs skill recognition system for their migrant workers to return and to seek employment opportunities in Myanmar.

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