Great By ChoiceLeading Above the Death Line

Sydne CollierAmanda HainesJacob JohnsonEric LaunerKatie ShawZach SlagleMark Weyandt

Overview

•Productive Paranoia

•Paranoia 1

•Paranoia 2

•Paranoia 3

Productive Paranoia

•10x lead with productive paranoia

•Conditions unexpectedly change violently and fast

•Continuously asking “What if?”

The only mistakes you can learn from are the ones you survive

10X Journey and the Death Line

Death Line

Bad Events

Good Events

10X Journey

Stay above the Death Line

Productive Paranoia #1.Extra Oxygen Canisters- Its What You Do Before The Storm Comes

•Oxygen Canisters= cash reserves and a conservative balance sheet

•Intel cash position reaches 40 percent of annual revenues

•Worried about the 5 percent where catastrophe could devastate the industry

10xers and Remaining Productively Paranoid

•What they do before the storm comes is what matters most

•Started building buffers and shock absorbers as a habit early on

•Being prepared for the Black Swan event

Southwest Airlines

• Only Airline Prepared for 9-11

• Stock price rise at the end of 2001

• Only airline to turn a profit in 2002

Red Bull

• Keep Growing in different markets

• Involved in many different sports including owning a formula one racing team and an MLS team

Productive Paranoia 2: Bounding Risk

•10x Companies and the risks

•Death Line Risk

•Asymmetric Risk

•Uncontrollable risk

Death Line Risk

Type Of Decision 10X Companies Comparison Companies

Number of Decisions Analyzed

59 55

Decisions Involving Death Line Risk

10% of Decisions 36% of decisions

Asymmetric Risk

Type of Decisions Made

10X Companies Comparison Companies

Number of Decisions Analyzed

59 55

Decisions Involving Asymmetric Risk

15% of Decisions 36% of Decisions

Uncontrollable Risk

Type of Decisions Made

10X Companies Comparison Companies

Number of Decisions Analyzed

59 55

Decisions Involving Uncontrollable Risk

42% of Decisions 73% of Decisions

Productive Paranoia 3

•ZOOM OUT – SENSE CONDITIONS, TIME, RISK, PLANS

•zoom in – execution

Red Bull Marketing•Zoom Out –

Realizing problems with marketing

•Zoom In – Created new marking scheme that they could afford

Execution •Buzz

marketing/word of mouth

•Youth culture•Extreme sports•Dance music

parties•Student brand

managers

Conclusion

•Productive Paranoia

•Paranoia 1

•Paranoia 2

•Paranoia 3