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Introductory Remarks for the Workshop

Brent Lofgren and Andrew Gronewold

Workshop on Methods for Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Hydrology

Muskegon, MI

August 27, 2012

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Credits

Facilitation and Planning Committee

David Bidwell, Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (U. of Michigan and Michigan State U.)

Allison Steiner, Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences Dept., U. of Michigan

Logistical Arrangements and Miscellaneous Help

Anthony Acciaioli, Co-op Inst. For Limnology and Ecosystems Res.

Dennis Donahue, GLERL Lake Michigan Field Station

Mike Ryan, Mary Baumgartner, and Cathy Darnell, GLERL Ann Arbor

On-site Assistance

DJ Henman, GLERL Lake Michigan Field Station

Kevin Strychar, Grand Valley State U.

Denise Herzhaft and staff, USS Silversides Museum

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Food!

Lunches

Great Lakes Integrated Sciences and Assessment (GLISA)

Snacks

Cooperative Institute for Limnology and Ecosystems Research (CILER)

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Credits

Keynote Speakers

Discussants

All Presenters and Participants

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NOAA Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Marie Colton, Director

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Personnel

50 federal, 20 Cooperative Institute and contract

12 physical science, 25 biological and ecological, 9 observing systems, 10 field operations

Co-located: Thunder Bay NMS, NOAA Habitat Restoration Team, NOAA Great Lakes Regional Collaboration Team, International Association for Great Lakes Research

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Temperature Pressure

Clouds

Humidity

Wind

Sfc temperature Sfc roughness Sfc moisture

Sensible heat

Upward longwaveFriction

Downward longwave

Sfc albedo

Latent heat/evap

Upward solar

Downward solar Upward longwave

Precip

The Real World (simplified)

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Temperature

Pressure

Clouds

Humidity

Wind

Sfc temperature Sfc roughness Sfc moisture

Sensible heat

Upward longwaveFriction

Downward longwave

Sfc albedo

Latent heat/evap

Upward solar

Downward solar Upward longwave

Precip

Evap

Drastic simplification

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Temperature

Pressure

Clouds

Humidity

Wind

Sfc temperature Sfc roughness Sfc moisture

Sensible heat

Upward longwaveFriction

Downward longwave

Sfc albedo

Upward solar

Downward solar Upward longwave

Precip

Evap

Latent heat/evap

Redundant variable

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Differences in surface energy fluxes, averaged globally and annually, in the 2×CO2, solar, and stabilized cases, relative to control. “Sfc. net SW” refers to the net surface absorption

(incident minus reflected) of solar radiation, and “Sfc. net LW” refers ...

Bala G et al. PNAS 2008;105:7664-7669

©2008 by National Academy of Sciences

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Key quotation

“The residual change in precipitation that we find in the stabilized case is an indication that the hydrological sensitivity of the climate system depends on the forcing mechanisms.” Bala et al. 2008, PNAS

This is similar to the difference between calibrating an offline hydrologic model to air temperature variability that is mainly due to the seasonal cycle (solar or net radiation) and applying it to trends due to greenhouse gases.

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Organizing questions for this workshop

1. How do we bridge the gap between climate projection and hydrologic projection?

2. How do we make this fully self-consistent and serve the needs of those interested in surface-atmosphere interaction and those interested in surface water budgets?

3. What is the role of empirical and process-based models in a non-stationary regime?

4. How do we educate impacts researchers and the general public about relevant caveats in simulations of hydrologic impacts of climate change?

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Ideal Outcome

We don’t just think, but know, how to determine climate change’s effects on hydrology

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More Realistic

Present different methods aimed at different aspects of the hydrologic system

Discuss strengths and weaknesses of different methods

Brainstorm new ideas to try—applicable in a variety of geographic contexts

Satisfy the needs of both hydrologic and atmospheric scientists based on surface water and energy budgets

Make strides toward review article and further research

Potential large collaborative project

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Thanks to all for coming. Have a great workshop and a great visit to Muskegon.