Green River Phase II DRAFT2 II Strategic Plan_FINAL.pdf · Green River Strategic Plan Phase II:...

GreenRiverStrategicPlanPhaseII:CommunityAnalysisGreenRiver,UtahJuly,2017

Preparedby:BetterCity

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TABLEOFCONTENTSEXECUTIVESUMMARY.......................................................................................................................................................................................4

BackgroundandIntroduction................................................................................................................................................................................4DemographicAssessment.....................................................................................................................................................................................4EconomicAssessment............................................................................................................................................................................................4SWOTAnalysis.......................................................................................................................................................................................................5TheCity’sRoleinImplementation.........................................................................................................................................................................5NextSteps..............................................................................................................................................................................................................5

DEMOGRAPHICASSESSMENT............................................................................................................................................................................6POPULATIONSIZEANDAGE.............................................................................................................................................................................................6ETHNICITY....................................................................................................................................................................................................................8

ECONOMICASSESSMENT................................................................................................................................................................................11INDUSTRIES.................................................................................................................................................................................................................11INCOME.....................................................................................................................................................................................................................12EDUCATION................................................................................................................................................................................................................13THETOURISMINDUSTRY...............................................................................................................................................................................................13

SalesTax..............................................................................................................................................................................................................17AreasofOpportunity...........................................................................................................................................................................................18

SWOTANALYSIS..............................................................................................................................................................................................20

THECITY’SROLEINIMPLEMENTATION............................................................................................................................................................29

NEXTSTEPS.....................................................................................................................................................................................................30

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LISTOFFIGURESANDTABLESFIGURE1:POPULATION,2010-2015...........................................................................................................................................................................................................6FIGURE2:SCHOOLENROLLMENT,2012-2016..............................................................................................................................................................................................7FIGURE3:GREENRIVERPOPULATIONBREAKDOWN,2015...............................................................................................................................................................................8FIGURE4:ETHNICCOMPOSITION,2015.......................................................................................................................................................................................................8FIGURE5:STUDENTPOPULATIONCOMPOSITION,BOOKCLIFFELEMENTARY2012-2016......................................................................................................................................9FIGURE6:STUDENTPOPULATIONCOMPOSITION,GRHIGHSCHOOL2012-2016................................................................................................................................................9FIGURE7:ENROLLMENTCOMPARISON,BOOKCLIFFELEMENTARY2012-2016....................................................................................................................................................9FIGURE8:ENROLLMENTCOMPARISON,GRHIGHSCHOOL2012-2016............................................................................................................................................................10FIGURE9:HISPANIC-OWNEDBUSINESSGROWTH.........................................................................................................................................................................................10FIGURE10:INDUSTRYBYEMPLOYMENT,2015............................................................................................................................................................................................11FIGURE11:HOUSEHOLDINCOMEDISTRIBUTION,2015.................................................................................................................................................................................12FIGURE12:MEDIANHOUSEHOLDINCOME,2015........................................................................................................................................................................................12FIGURE13:EDUCATIONATTAINMENT,2015...............................................................................................................................................................................................13FIGURE14:HOTELREVENUE,2011-2016..................................................................................................................................................................................................14FIGURE15:AVERAGEGREENRIVERHOTELREVENUEBASEDONPEAKCOLLECTIONS,2011-2016........................................................................................................................15FIGURE16:AVERAGEGREENRIVERHOTELREVENUECONTRIBUTION,2011-2016............................................................................................................................................15FIGURE17:AVERAGEMOABHOTELREVENUEBASEDONPEAKCOLLECTIONS,2011-2016.................................................................................................................................16FIGURE18:AVERAGEMOABHOTELREVENUECONTRIBUTION,2011-2016.....................................................................................................................................................16FIGURE19:PEAKVISITATIONATARCHESNATIONALPARK,2011-2016...........................................................................................................................................................17FIGURE20:PEAKVISITATIONATCANYONLANDSNATIONALPARK,2011-2016.................................................................................................................................................17FIGURE21:GREENRIVERSALESTAXBASEDONPEAKCOLLECTIONS.................................................................................................................................................................18FIGURE22:GREENRIVERSALESTAXCONTRIBUTIONBYMONTH.....................................................................................................................................................................18FIGURE23:CAGRCOMPARISON2011-2016.............................................................................................................................................................................................19FIGURE24:CAGRGROWTHCOMPARISON,2011-2016..............................................................................................................................................................................19

TABLE1:STUDENTENROLLMENTSUMMARY................................................................................................................................................................................................10TABLE2:CORRELATIONCOEFFICIENTCOMPARISON.......................................................................................................................................................................................17

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EXECUTIVESUMMARYBackgroundandIntroduction

Recognizing theneed foradditionaleconomicactivityandcom-munity development investment, the City of Green River (the“City” or “Community”) commissioned a Strategic Plan (the“Plan”)intheSpringof2017.ThegoalofthePlanistoorientCityleadershipandthecommunityat large, tokeycatalyticprojectsthathave thepotentialof generatingnewvibrancy, responsiblepopulationgrowth,andeconomicprosperity.Unlikemanyruralcommunities,GreenRiverbenefitsfromkeystrategicadvantages,including transportation infrastructure,natural assets includingworld-renownedsceneryandtheGreenRiver.ThechallengetheCityfacesishowtoprioritizepotentialinvestmentandgrowthop-portunities,giventhelimitedresourcesandtaxbasethattheCom-munityhas.

Theappearanceofmanypotentialinvestmentopportunities,com-binedwiththelimitedresourcesoftheCityandarisk-aversepop-ulation,havecreatedadynamicsometimesreferredtoas“paral-ysisbyanalysis.”Inotherwords,theuncertaintyofwhichoptionwillprovemostsuccessfulhaspreventedproactiveinvestmentsfrom occurring. As a result, few strategic investments have oc-curred inrecentdecadesand thebuiltenvironmentreflects thelackofinvestment—manypropertiesalongthemaincorridorsofthecommunityarevacantandblighted.However,withagalvaniz-ingvision,anactionable,detailedstrategicplanofactionandim-plementation follow-through,GreenRiverhasa tremendous fu-ture.

DemographicAssessment

Thedemographicassessmentlooksatdemographictrendstoas-sessthegrowthpotentialofthecommunity.ContrarytoACSesti-mates, thepopulationof thecommunity is likely shrinking.TheCity’sage-groupcompositionshows that there isa smallerper-centage ofworking age individuals from25-44 than the regionandState.Growthoftheworkingclassisakeygoalfortheimple-mentationof theStrategicPlan.GreenRiver’sHispanicshareofthepopulationismuchhigherthantheStateorCountyaverage.This is a potential strength to the community, because theHis-panicpopulationwithintheStateisgrowinginsizeandpurchas-ing power, andminority individuals tend to bemore entrepre-neurialwhichhelpsfeedthelocaleconomicengine.

EconomicAssessment

TheEconomicAssessmentanalyzesthecurrentstateoftheecon-omy,especiallyforemploymentdistribution,income,andeduca-tionalattainment.Employmentisdominatedbyafewindustriesthat tend topay lowwages.Higher-paying industriesare in thelowersharesofthedistribution,resultinginamedianincomefortheCitythatis$20,000lessthantheStateaverage.

TheTourismIndustry

TobetterunderstandthenatureofthetourismmarketintheCity,visitationatkeyregionalattractionswascomparedtotheCity’seconomic performance as measured by tax collections. GreenRiver’speaktransientroomtax(“TRT”)collectionscloselyresem-blesthevisitationaveragesatArchesNationalPark.Surprisingly,thecorrelationbetweenvisitationatArchesandTRTcollectionsinGreenRiver is stronger than the correlationbetweenArchesvisitation andMoab’s TRT collections, orMoab’s TRT vs GreenRiver’sTRT.Thissuggeststhatofthevisitorstotheregion,there

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maybeastrongerconnectionbetweenArchesvisitationandhotelstaysinGreenRiverthanwaspreviouslyassumed,andisamoreimportantfactorthangeneraltraffictoMoab.

Utah’s “Mighty Five” campaign has driven incredible growth inyear-over-yearvisitationatmanyofUtah’snationalparks,espe-ciallyintheoffseason.However,thegrowthhasnotbeenrepre-sentedinGreenRiver’sorMoab’sTRTrevenues.Neithercommu-nity is fully capitalizingon thenewoff-seasongrowth.The cityshouldimplementamorethoroughmarketanalysisinitiativetobetterunderstandthecustomersthatarevisitingintheoffseason,andestablishitselfasabasecampforthisnewcategoryofregionalvisitor.

SWOTAnalysis

A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats Analysiswasperformedforfivecomponentsoftheeconomy:

1) Economic Development, 2) Community Development, 3) Workforce & Human Capital Development, 4) Branding, Marketing, & Event Promotion, and 5) City Governance

The results of the SWOTanalysis are summarized in the tablesfoundonpages21-28ofthisreport.

TheCity’sRoleinImplementation

Thissectionof thedocumentprovidesa frameworkwithwhichtheCity’selectedleadersandstaffcanusetoimplementtherec-ommendations provided in the Strategic Plan. The frameworkhighlightstheneedforgovernmenttoprovideforsafetyandwell-

beingforlocalresidents,butafterthoseneedsareaccountedfor,a cost-benefit analysis should be performed for each initiative.Priorityshouldbeplacedonprojectsandinitiativesthathavethepotential of driving significant private investment and ongoingeconomicactivity.

NextSteps

Thisreport is thesecondphaseofa three-phaseStrategicPlan-ningprocess.PhaseIIIwillidentifypotentialfundingsources,po-tentialprojectchampions,andwillprovideaframeworkforhowtoapproacheachofthecatalyticprojects.

GreenRiverPhase2Report

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DEMOGRAPHICASSESSMENTThedemographicmake-upofacommunityplaysaroleindeter-miningopportunitiesforeconomicandcommunitydevelopment.Forexample,businessesrelyontheavailabilityof local labortosupportoperations,andthecurrentandforecastedsizeofthetaxbasedetermineswhatinvestmentscanbemadetoimprovepublicinfrastructureandqualityof lifeamenities.Factorssuchasage,populationsize,workforcesize,andeducationattainmentlevelseachplayaroleinthesuccessandgrowthpotentialofthelocaleconomyandmayprovideinsightsintothetypesofindustriesormarketopportunitiesthatwouldbebestsuitedfortheCommu-nity.

One of the challenges that rural communities face, and GreenRiver is no exception, is acquiring good demographic data foranalysis.Thedatagatheringmethodsutilizedbyfederalsourcessuchas theAmericanCommunitySurvey1(ACS)arebestsuitedfor largecommunities,whereit iseasiertoobtainastatisticallyrelevantsamplesizethatcanyieldgooddata,eveninnon-censusyears. To determine the current population and demographicanalysisfortheCommunity,thisreportwillrelyheavilyuponde-cennialcensusdata,andwillutilizeACSdataandothersourcestothedegreethattheinformationappearsrelevantbasedonobser-vationsmadewithintheCommunity.

1TheAmericanCommunitySurveyisanationalsurveyadministeredbytheU.S.CensusBureau.Itsamplesaportionofthepopulationeveryyearasawayofestimatingpopulationandeconomictrendsinnon-decennialcensusyears.

POPULATIONSIZEANDAGE

ThepopulationoftheCityofGreenRiverwasreportedat973inthe2000Census,and952in2010.TheACSreportsthatfrom2010to2015,thepopulationoftheCityincreasedby16%,orby154residentstoapopulationof1,106(seeFigure1).

Source:USCensus(2000,and2010),ACS2011-2015

Figure1:Population,2010-2015

However,residentsreportedduring interviewsthat thepopula-tionhasbeendecreasingoverthelastseveralyears.Becauseoffi-cialcomprehensivedatawillnotbecollecteduntilthe2020Cen-sus,schoolenrollmentdataprovidedbytheStateofUtahwasan-alyzedwiththeassumptionthatschoolenrollmentwillserveasaproxyfortheoverallpopulationtrends.Iflocalschoolenrollmentincreases,itisreasonabletoassumethattheoverallpopulationoftheCommunityhasalsoincreased,andviceversa.Therearesome

TOTAL

MALE

FEMALE

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Population


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potentialissueswiththisapproach,includingthatifthenon-chil-drenraisingpopulation,suchasretirees, increasesordecreasesatafasterratethantheoverallpopulation,thosechangeswillnotbereflectedintheschoolenrollmentdata.Anecdotalreportsfromresidentssuggeststhattherehasnotbeenaninfluxorexodusofretirees,thereforeitisassumedthattheschoolenrollmentdataisarelevantproxyfortheoverallpopulationtrend.

October school enrollment at the Book Cliff Elementary SchoolandGreenRiverHighSchoolfrom2012-2016isshowninFigure2. This figure shows that during the five-year period analyzed,schoolpopulationatBookCliffElementarydecreased from125studentsin2012and2013to91studentsinOctoberof2016.Sim-ilarly,GreenRiverHighSchoolenrollmentdecreasedfrom116intheFallof2012to94studentsin2016.

Source:UtahStateBoardofEducation

Figure2:SchoolEnrollment,2012-2016

Thechangerepresentsa23%decrease intotalenrollmentoverthefive-yearperiod.Ifthissametrendisextrapolatedtothepop-ulationofGreenRiverasawhole,itwouldsuggestthattheactual

populationoftheCitywascloserto731in2015,ratherthantheACS reported 1,106. The actual population probably lies some-wherebetweenthe2010reportednumberof952andtheextrap-olatedresultof731.

Thisobservationisanitemofconcern.Naturalattritionthroughtheagingofthepopulationandmovementoffamiliesoutofanygivencityneedstobeovercomebythegrowthofnewpeople,andespecially young people, in the community. A declining schoolpopulation is likelyasymptomofaweakeconomicengine,andworkingfamiliesmovetofindmoreprosperouscircumstancesinother locations.When it is the young andworking class that ismovingaway,theCommunityisfacedwithdecliningprospectsofnewentrepreneurialandeconomicactivitythatservesasthelife-bloodoftheCity.

TheoverallagecompositionoftheCityalsohighlightsafewpo-tentialareasofconcern.Thekeyagegroupof25to44year-oldsisunderrepresentedintheCityincomparisontotheCounty,State,or thenearby cityofMoab (seeFigure3). Specifically, approxi-mately17%oftheCity’spopulationisbetween25and44,com-paredtotheStateaverageof28%orMoab’s31%.Inotherwords,thereare fewerworkers relative to theCity’s entirepopulationthanistypicalinUtah,makingitdifficultforemployerstofindad-equate talent. In the case of recruiting in new industries, thesmallerthanexpectedworkforceisanareaofconcernthatmayleadpotentialrecruitstoconsiderotherlocations.

GreenRiverHighSchool

BookCliffElementary

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

SchoolEnrollment

TotalChange:-23%


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Source:ACSFigure3:GreenRiverPopulationBreakdown,2015

There are several forces at play to consider when it comes toworkforcesize.Theprevailingsayingusedtobethat“peoplefol-lowjobs”whenexplainingwhycertaincommunitiesgrewinpop-ulationwhileothersfellbehind.ThisisalmostcertainlyoneofthefactorsintowhytheCity’skeyworkingpopulationissmallerthanaveragebecausefamilieshavemovedawaytofindmoreeconomicopportunities.However,themorerecenttrendineconomicdevel-opmentisthatnow“jobsarefollowingpeople.”Becausetheun-employmentrateinmanystates,includingUtah,isnowapproach-ing what is defined as “full-employment,” people are primarilychoosingaplacetolivefirstbasedonqualityof lifefactors,andthenfindingemploymentopportunitieswithinthatarea.Employ-ersinturn,arechoosinglocationsandbuildingoperationsincom-munitieswhere their ideal employee already lives, orwants tolive.ItisnotenoughanymoretosimplyrecruitinalargeemployerandthinkthatthepopulationwillmovetoGreenRiver.TheCitywillhavetoproactivelybuildacommunityandenvironmentthat

isattractivetotheworkforce,whilesimultaneouslyrecruitingem-ployers,orsupportingentrepreneursthatareagoodfit.

ETHNICITY

TheCityofGreenRiverismuchlessethnicallyhomogenousthantherestof theStateofUtah.Specifically, theCity is reported tohaveaHispanicpopulationofapproximately25%,vstheStateav-erageof12%ortheEmeryCountyaverageof5%(seeFigure4).

Source:ACSFigure4:EthnicComposition,2015

The significant Hispanic population is even more pronouncedwhen lookingat theschoolenrollmentdata.Asreportedby theStateDepartment of Education, the student population at BookCliffElementarywas42%Hispanicin2012,andincreasedto49%in2016withapeakof58%in2015(seeFigure5).Similarly,theHispanicpopulationatGreenRiverHighSchool increased from30%in2012to56%in2016(seeFigure6).

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0to14 15to24 25to44 45to64 65to74 75+

%ofPop

ulation(201

5)

Utah EmeryCounty GreenRiver Moab

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

GreenRiver EmeryCounty StateofUtah

White

Hispanic

Other


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Source:UtahStateDepartmentofEducationFigure5:StudentPopulationComposition,BookCliffElementary2012-2016

Source:UtahStateDepartmentofEducationFigure6:StudentPopulationComposition,GRHighSchool2012-2016

ButtheincreaseinpercentageoftheHispanicpopulationisonlypartofthestory.Asdescribedpreviously,totalschoolenrollmentdecreasedduring thesame timeperiod.FurtheranalysisshowsthatthechangeinethnicdistributionatBookCliffElementaryisduetoadecreaseinthenumberofWhitestudentsthatexceededthedecreaseinthenumberofHispanicstudents(seeFigure7).

Source:UtahStateDepartmentofEducation

Figure7:EnrollmentComparison,BookCliffElementary2012-2016

GreenRiverHighSchoolsawanincreaseof18Hispanicstudents,ora51%increasefrom2012to2016,butadecreaseintheWhitestudentpopulationof36studentsor47%(seeFigure8).StudentpopulationchangesaresummarizedinTable1.

Hispanic

White

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EnrolledStudents

Hispanic

White

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EnrolledStudents

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140

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TotalEnrollment

White

Hispanic


10

Source:UtahStateDepartmentofEducation

Figure8:EnrollmentComparison,GRHighSchool2012-2016

Source:UtahStateDepartmentofEducationTable1:StudentEnrollmentSummary

TheshiftingethnicprofileoftheCommunitymaybeevidence,orasymptomofachange ineconomicdrivers for theCommunity.Long-termresidentsappeartobemovingawayfromtheCommu-nity, while first or second generation minority immigrants aremovingin,attractedbytheagricultureandhospitalityindustries.

Thisethnicshiftcanbeagreatstrength,however.TheHispanicpopulationwithintheState,andtheNationasawholeisgrowing,and they have tremendous buying power and entrepreneurialspirit.Forexample,from2007to2012,thenumberofbusinessesinUtahownedbyHispanicindividualsgrewby49%.Duringthesame time period, the total number of businesses in Utah in-creased by 2%. Sales receipts and payroll of Hispanic-ownedbusinessesalsoout-pacedtheStateaveragegrowingby38%and34%respectively(seeFigure9).

Source:USCensusBureauFigure9:Hispanic-OwnedBusinessGrowth

Thisfindingalsohelpsprovideadditionalsupportandeconomicjustification for theproposeddowntownGreenRiverprojectofthe Business Owner and Entrepreneurial Support Center dis-cussed in the Phase I report. The proposed support centerwillhaveitsgreatestimpactif it isabletohelpinspireresidents,in-cluding the local Hispanic population to become entrepreneursandbusinessowners.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

TotalEnrollment

White

Hispanic

2012 2016 %ChangeTotal 125 91 -27%White 68 40 -41%Hispanic 52 45 -13%Total 116 94 -19%White 77 41 -47%Hispanic 35 53 51%

BookCliffElementary

GreenRiverHighSchool

49%

38%34%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

NumberofEstablishments

SalesRecipts Payroll

Grow

th2007-2012

Total Hispanic-Owned


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ECONOMICASSESSMENTINDUSTRIES

EmploymentintheGreenRiverareaisdominatedbyafewindus-tries. Specifically, the Recreation/accommodation/food serviceindustry as defined by theUS Census is the largest industry intermsofthenumberofemployeesandrepresentsapproximately32%ofthe localworkforce,orapproximately152workers(seeFigure10).Thenextlargestcontributorisretailtrade,followedbyeducationandhealthcareservices.

Construction, manufacturing, and transportation/warehousingoftenpayabove-averagewagesandrepresentthe5th,6th,and7thmostcommonindustries.Agricultureisreportedtohaveasmallnumberofemployees,whichis likelyanerrorinthedata.Farmlabor is sometimes hard to capture, and anecdotal informationsuggests that there are many more agriculture workers in thearea.Also,becausethedatapresentedwascollectedthroughtheCensusandisself-reported,theremaybesomerespondentswhowork in theagriculture industry,butreportedanother industrysuchashospitalityduetoseasonalityorotherfactors.

Source:ACSFigure10:IndustrybyEmployment,2015

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6

6

10

11

24

27

39

48

57

84

151

0 50 100 150 200

Agriculture, forestry, fishingandhunting, andmining

Information

Financeandinsurance, andrealestate

Administrative andwastemanagementservices

Otherservices,exceptpublicadministration

Transportation andwarehousing, andutilities

Manufacturing

Construction

Public administration

Education andhealth care

Retailtrade

Recreation, accommodationandfoodservices


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INCOME

Unfortunately,many of themost common jobs availablewithintheCityareamongthelowestwagejobs,whichcontributestolowoverallmedianincomeswithinthecommunity.Nearly35%oftheCity’shouseholdsearnlessthan$25k/year(seeFigure11).

Source:ACSFigure11:HouseholdIncomeDistribution,2015

MedianhouseholdincomeforGreenRiverwas$41,786in2015which is nearly $20,000 less than the State average of $60,727(seeFigure12).Oneofthemajorgoalsandabenchmarkforthesuccessoftheimplementationofthestrategicplanwillbetoin-creasethemedianhouseholdincomeforthecommunity.

Source:ACSFigure12:MedianHouseholdIncome,2015

ItisimportanttonotethatwhilethesuccessofMoabisoftenen-viedbyothercommunities inUtah, it’sperceivedsuccess isnotapparent when comparing median incomes. Like Green River,Moabisheavilyreliantuponthetourismindustry,whichhistori-callypayslocalwages.ThishighlightstheneedforGreenRivertodevelopdiversifiedindustryandbusinessgrowth,ratherthanre-lyingsolelyuponthetourismindustry.

0%

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45%

%ofH

ouseholds


$60,727

$49,787$41,786 $40,497

$0

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$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

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$70,000


MedianHo

useholdIncome


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EDUCATION

Thecollectiveeducationattainmentofacommunityhasa largeimpactoneconomicoutput, includingmedian incomesandeco-nomic mobility. For illustration purposes, Edward Glaeser andJoshuaGottliebreportintheirarticleTheEconomicsofPlace-Mak-ingPoliciesthat“Astheshareoftheadultpopulationwithcollegedegreesincreasesby10percent,wagesincreaseby7.8percent.”2GreenRiverhasapproximately25%moreresidentswithoutanycollegeeducationthantheStateaverage,andapproximately15%fewer residentswith a Bachelor’s degree or higher (see Figure13).

Source:ACSFigure13:EducationAttainment,2015

2Edward L. Glaeser & Joshua D. Gottlieb, 2008. "The Economics of Place-Making Poli-cies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brook-ings Institution, vol. 39 (1 (Spring), pages 155-253

Therearemultiplefactorsthatcontributetothelowerthanaver-ageeducationalattainment.First,manyofthejobsthatareavail-able within the City do not require a college degree, thereforethereisnotasmuchmotivationtoobtainadegreeifanindividualwantstostayandliveinGreenRiver.Second,thosethatdoseekcollegedegreeshaveadifficulttimereturningtotheCommunitytofindgainfulemploymentinacareerthatmatchestheirdegree.

Ifnothingchanges,thescenariodescribedaboveisamajorcon-tributortothe“brain-drain”astheCommunitybeginstoexportmoreandmoreofitsbestandbrightest.Thebestwaytocombatthebraindrainistocreateopportunitiesforsmartandmotivatedindividuals,both residentsandvisitors, to create strongattach-mentstotheCommunity.Inthisregard,individualswhohavetheabilityanddesire to startbusinesses that requireadvancedde-greesandthatpayhigherwageswillbemorelikelyto locatetotheCity.ToquotethebookTriumphof theCity, “…thebesteco-nomicdevelopmentstrategymaybetoattractsmartpeopleandgetoutoftheirway.”3ThevisionoutlinedinPhaseIisdesignedtohelpcreatetheconnectionstoattractnewinteresttotheCity,andhelp reverse the “braindrain” thathasbeenoccurringover thepastseveraldecades.

THETOURISMINDUSTRY

Ashighlightedpreviously,thetourismindustryisthelargestin-dustry in theCity,andemploysapproximately32%of the localworkforce.DuringtheinterviewprocessoftheStrategicPlan,lo-cal residents and stakeholdersmade comments suggesting thattheprevailingbeliefisthatmuchofGreenRiver’stourismdemandisoverflowfromtheMoabregion.Theassumptionexpressedwas

3TriumphoftheCity.EdwardGlaeser.ThePenguinPress,2011.Page259.

9%

23%

37%

31%

10%

33%

45%

13%18%

39%

27%

16%

10%

28%

38%

23%

0%

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50%

LessthanHighSchool

HighSchoolorequivalency

SomeCollege Bachelor'sDegreeorHigher

%ofP

opulation



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thatasMoab’shotelsbecomefull,visitorsbeganlookingforthenextclosestoptionandGreenRiveristhenaturalchoice.Analter-nativeexplanationisthatGreenRiverattractsthemorebudget-conscioustravelerthatisheadingtoMoab.TobetterunderstandtheconnectionandcorrelationbetweenGreenRiver’seconomicperformance, and visitation of the Moab region, tax revenues(sales, resort, and transient room tax or “TRT”) for Moab andGreen River were compared, and correlated with park visitordata.

Thereistypicallyatwo-monthlagbetweenwhentaxrevenueiscollectedandwhenitappearsintheCity’sfinancialreports,soforalltaxcollections,thecollectiondatewasadjustedtoreflectwhenthetaxwasactuallycollected,notwhenitwasdistributedbacktothe City. This model assumes that businesses on average aretimelywiththeirtaxfilings.

Itisimportanttonotethatnotallbusinessesarerequiredtosub-mittaxfilingsonamonthlybasis,andsomeonlyfilequarterlyorannuallybasedontotalrevenue.Asaresult,smallbusinessesthatfileonaquarterlybasiscancontributetoa“bump”inthecollec-tionsduringthemonthsofMarch,June,SeptemberandDecember.ThereisabumpintheGreenRiverandMoabdataforthemonthsofJuneandSeptember,butitisdifficulttoaccuratelyquantifytheamountofthequarterlybumpwithpubliclyavailabledata,espe-ciallybecausethemonthsofJuneandSeptemberareamongthebusiest months due to summer travelling andMelon Days. Ac-knowledgingthatsomenoiseinthedatais introducedfromthequarterlyfilings,thediscrepancyhasbeendeterminedtonotbeasignificantfactorforthepurposesofthisreport.

4Thereportedamountisforallthehotelpropertiescollectively.Individualpropertyper-formancewasnotanalyzed.

Taxcollectionswereanalyzedandextrapolatedtodeterminethetotalspendingthatisrepresentedintheamountofcollectedtax.Forexample,GreenRiverimposesa1%municipalTRTtax,sothereportedtaxcollectionsweredividedby0.01toyieldtheapprox-imatehotelrevenuethatgeneratedthereportedtax.Hotelspend-inginGreenRiverfluctuatestremendouslythroughouttheyear,fromalowofapproximately$200k/monthinthewinter,toapeakofgreaterthan$1,000,000duringthesummer4.Year-to-yearvar-iabilityisalsoconsiderable(seeFigure14).

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure14:HotelRevenue,2011-2016

Toreducethenoiseinthedataandbetterunderstandtheimpactofseasonality,theaveragecollectionsofeachmonthfrom2011-2016werenormalizedbasedonthepeakcollectionforanygiven

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

Jan Feb MarAprilMay JuneJuly Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

HotelSpending(USD

)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


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year.Theresultinganalysisshowshowbusyeachmonthof theyearis,onaverage(seeFigure15).

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure15:AverageGreenRiverHotelRevenueBasedonPeakCollections,2011-2016

Anotherwaytoviewthedata is in termsofhowmuchrevenueeachmonthgeneratesbasedontheannualtotals.Ifthetourismseason were perfectly balanced year-round, one would expecteachmonthtocontributeapproximately8.3%towardtheannualtotal.AsseeninFigure16,themonthsofNovemberthroughFeb-ruaryareincrediblyslow,generatingonaverageonly3%oftheannualrevenue.Thisextremeseasonalitymakesitverydifficultforbusinessownerstosustainoperations.

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure16:AverageGreenRiverHotelRevenueContribution,2011-2016

Forcomparisonpurposes,thesameanalysiswasconductedwithreported TRT collections for the City of Moab. Moab collectsnearly an order of magnitude (10x) more hotel revenue thanGreenRiver,peakingatapproximately$9-10M/monthduringthesummer;buttheseasonalitypatternisverysimilar(seeFigure17andFigure18).

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

%ofP

eak

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14%

16%


%ofT

otal


16

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure17:AverageMoabHotelRevenueBasedonPeakCollections,2011-2016

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure18:AverageMoabHotelRevenueContribution,2011-2016

5NationalParksService

IfGreenRiverwasstrictlycapturingoverflow in the traditionalsense,onewouldexpecttoseeMoabreachitspeakvisitationfirst,beforeGreenRiverstartedtoapproachitspeak.Asshowninthepreceding figures, other than themonthofApril (Jeep Safari inMoab) both communities appear to be approaching as well asreachingtheirrelativepeakvisitationsimultaneously.Thisobser-vationsuggeststhattherearefactors,otherthanstrictlyvacancyinMoab,thatareinfluencingthepurchasingdecisionsoftravelerstoSoutheasternUtah.

One way of providing additional insight into the visitors thatspendmoneyinGreenRivervs.thosethatspendmoneyinMoab,istoanalyzevisitationatpopularnearbyStateandNationalParksand compare it to TRT collections. Arches National Park is themostpopularparkdestinationintheregion,attractingmorethan1.5Mvisitors each year5. Canyonlands is thenextmost populardestination,attractingover750kvisitorsin2016.

PeakvisitationatArchesfollowsasmoothgrowthcurve,peakingduringthemonthsofJuneandJuly(seeFigure19).Canyonlandsfollowsasimilarpattern,althoughitismorevariable(seeFigure20).

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Source:NationalParksServiceFigure19:PeakVisitationatArchesNationalPark,2011-2016

Source:NationalParksService

Figure20:PeakVisitationatCanyonlandsNationalPark,2011-2016

The assumption going into the analysis was that visitation atArcheswouldbemostcloselycorrelatedwithMoabTRTdueto

theproximityof thepark to thecity. Surprisingly,peakArchesvisitationismorecloselycorrelatedwithGreenRiverTRTcollec-tionsthanMoabTRTcollections(seeTable2).MoabandArchesvisitationarealsoverystronglycorrelated,withacorrelationco-efficientof0.91,butthefactthatpeakvisitationatArchesmorecloselytrackspeakhotelutilizationinGreenRiverwarrantsfur-therinvestigation.TheavailabledataisinsufficienttodeterminehowmanyArchesvisitorspurchasehotelroomsinGreenRiver,buttheobservationsuggeststhattheremaybeastrongerconnec-tion between Green River hotel utilization and Arches visitorsthanwaspreviouslythought.Unsurprisingly,Canyonlandsvisita-tion ismore closely correlated toMoabTRT than it is toGreenRiverTRT.

Source:NationalParksService,www.utah.gov/transparency,BetterCityLLCTable2:CorrelationCoefficientComparison

SalesTax

TheseasonalitytrendswithGreenRiversalestaxarealsoappar-ent,althoughnotquiteasdramaticasTRT.SalestaxcollectionscanserveasaproxyforoveralleconomicactivitywithintheCity(seeFigure21andFigure22).

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Arches Canyonlands MoabTRTGreenRiverTRT 0.97 0.94 0.93MoabTRT 0.91 0.96 1


18

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure21:GreenRiverSalesTaxBasedonPeakCollections

Source:www.utah.gov/transparencyFigure22:GreenRiverSalesTaxContributionbyMonth

AreasofOpportunity

Ashighlighted in thePhase Idraftand throughoutPhase II, thetourismindustrybringswithitchallengesandissuesthatneedtobe mitigated, but it also represents a great opportunity if it isproperly leveraged to attract additional diversified economicgrowth.Tothatend,thereareseveralpotentialopportunitiesandareas of investment that could yield beneficial results for theGreenRivereconomy.

TheStateofUtah’s“MightyFive”campaignhasbroughttremen-dousimpactandgrowthinthevisitationofthenationalparksinUtah.VisitationatArcheshasgrownbyapproximately500kan-nualvisitorssincethecampaignstarted,andCanyonlandsvisita-tionnearlydoubledfromapproximately450ktojustunder800k.ButtherehasalsobeenasignificantincreaseatStateParksasaresultofbetterawareness.VisitationatGoblinValleyhasdoubledsince2014,growingfromjustover100kvisitorsperyeartoover220k in 2016. Goblin Valley currently has fewer visitors thanArches or Canyonlands, but its visitation is growing at amuchfasterpacewithacompoundannualgrowthrate(CAGR)of29%from2011-2016.Ifthisgrowthtrendcontinues,GoblinValleywillexceed1Mannualvisitorsbytheyear2023.GrowthinvisitationatArchesandCanyonlandsisalsosignificant,growingatanaver-ageCAGRof8%and10%respectively.

Itisimportanttonotethatwhilethegreatestgrowthintermsofnumbershasoccurredduring thesummermonths, thegreatestpercentageofgrowthisactuallyoccurringduringtheoff-seasonof the analyzed parks (see Figure 23). In all three instances,monthlyCAGRistheinverseofpeakvisitation.

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Source:NationalandStateParksServiceFigure23:CAGRComparison2011-2016

ThemonthlyCAGRofGreenRiverandMoabTRTcollectionsisnotnearlyasconsistent(seeFigure24).Thereisnostatisticallysig-nificantcorrelation(datanotshown)betweentheCAGRgrowthoftheparksanalyzedinFigure23andtheCAGRofTRTcollectedinGreenRiverandMoab.Thefindingsuggeststhatthenewparkvisitors,andparticularlythosethatvisitduringtheoff-season,arenothavingasignificantimpactonhotelrevenue.Thelackofcor-relationmaybeanareaofopportunityforGreenRiverifitisabletopositionitselftoprovideservicesthatarebetteralignedwiththedemandsofthenewvisitorstothenearbyStateandNationalParks.

Source:www.utah.gov/transparency,BetterCityLLCFigure24:CAGRGrowthComparison,2011-2016

Tobettercapturethepotentiallow-hangingfruitwithinthetour-ism industry, the City should consider investing in and imple-mentingamorethoroughmarketanalysisinitiativetobetterun-derstandtheCity’stargetcustomer.Throughtargetedmarketre-search, and targeted advertising,GreenRiver shouldbe able totakeamoreproactiveroleinhelpingtosupportlocalbusinessesand stabilizing demand, particularly during the slow monthswherethereappearstobegreatgrowthpotentialandincreasingdemand.

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SWOTANALYSIS

Helpful

toachievingtheobjective

Harmful

toachievingtheobjective

InternalOrigin

(attributesofthe

organization)

Strengths Weaknesses

ExternalOrigin

(attributesofthe

environm

ent)

Opportunities Threats

A Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT)analysisreviewsandcharacterizesacommunity’scharacteristics.This exercise facilitates understanding of a community’s nativeassets, thosefactorswhichcould impedeprogressandprovidesideasaboutfuturedirection.TheSWOTanalysisreflectsasynthe-sisofinformationgleanedfromthestakeholderinterviews,demo-graphic,financialandbusinessresearch,communityforumsandmeetingwithCitystaffandleaderships.Tofacilitatemorefocusedanalysis,separateSWOTmatriceswerecompletedforeachofthethreefacetsofeconomicdevelopment,namelycommunitydevel-opment, economic development and workforce development.Thisisnotintendedtobeacomprehensivelistofeverythingabout

theCitythatcouldbecharacterizedasastrength,weakness,op-portunityorthreat,butratherisaprioritized,filteredcompilationofthosethingsthataremostsignificant.SomeofthoseitemscitedbytheCommunitywerenotincludedinthefinallistsnotbecausetheylackedmerit,butsimplybecauseaninclusionofeverysug-gestionwoulddilutethefocusonthoseitemsofthegreatestsig-nificanceandpracticability.

• “Economic Development” refers to everything that deals with industry, jobs, and includes tourism, public incen-tives, and entrepreneurial infrastructure.

• “Community Development” contemplates all aspects of community life that contribute to quality of life and de-fine it character. Some of the components of Commu-nity Development include housing, amenities, and social services.

• “Workforce & Human Capital Development” considers all the factors that affect the size, quality and skills of the workforce, including education.

• “Branding, Marketing, & Event Promotion” considers the efforts being made to brand and promote the com-munity effectively.

• “City Governance” considers those factors that affect the ability of the City to effectively govern and undertake strategic initiatives.

GreenRiver’sattributesrelativetothesecategoriesarelistedbe-low.


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EconomicDevelopment-SWOT

Strengths–EconomicDevelopment Weaknesses–EconomicDevelopment

• Green River’s location on I-70 provides opportunities for tourism, energy produc-tion, and manufacturing.

• The City’s proximity to National and State Parks has been a driving factor for the tourism industry and there is a strong correlation between Park visitation and lodging tax revenues.

• Transportation assets including the highway, rail, and airport provide infrastruc-ture for potential manufacturers and energy producers.

• The agricultural heritage of Green River and melon farming has been a defining industry that has established the Green River identity.

• The City and many agricultural users have sufficient water rights and water avail-ability thanks to proximity to the Green River.

• There is plentiful available industrial land for economic development prospects in the zoned industrial parks within close proximity to transportation infrastructure.

• Emery Telecom provides broadband and is an important utility service provider in the City.

• Local non-profits and coalitions have helped strategize, plan, and increase the ca-pacity of the community to undertake economic development initiatives.

• Utah Department of Transportation Maintenance Station provides access to good paying jobs with benefits to the community.

• A grant has been secured and an RFP issued to conduct a feasibility study for a natural gas line. The development of a natural gas line would improve the City’s competitiveness for businesses looking to expand in or relocate to the region.

• Emery County Economic Development provides capacity for economic develop-ment initiatives and has been a great resource for the County and City.

• The tourism industry creates significant season-ality issues for local businesses, which creates difficulty in managing and sustaining a year-round business.

• Many of the jobs in the tourism industry are low wage and without benefits, which requires some employees to hold multiple jobs.

• The prevalence of mancos shale in certain areas of the City creates construction issues for new development.

• Some farmers struggle to sell all of their har-vested agricultural crops.

• There is a lack of infrastructure in the west end industrial park.

• Many local businesses do not have an ownership succession plan, which may result in a loss of lo-cally-owned businesses.

• There is a general lack of access to capital and entrepreneurial infrastructure which limits the ability of entrepreneurs to start- new businesses.

• There is no natural gas line in the City and the nearest connection is many miles away and will require significant investment to develop.


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Opportunities–EconomicDevelopment Threats–EconomicDevelopment

• Opportunities in value-added food manufacturing exist even if it is just limited to capturing value from agricultural products that can not be sold to market and otherwise rot in the field.

• The City’s location to outdoor recreational assets that are subjects and sites for film & photography production present an opportunity to provide services and inexpensive labor in support of this indus-try.

• The Amtrak passenger train stop is an underutilized asset and the placement of a Zipcar or availability of local Uber drivers may create opportunities for train passengers to recreate and use Green River as a basecamp.

• There is tremendous opportunity for growth in the outdoor adven-ture outfitters cluster along with curated recreational packages for tourists, equipment rentals, uranium mine tours, and a river shuttle service.

• A Community Reinvestment Area (CRA) should be created that would provide tax increment for new development, blight elimina-tion, and redevelopment along Main Street and in the industrial parks.

• Initiatives to strengthen the entrepreneurial culture should be en-hanced and partnerships with the high school formed to create link-ages between students, local entrepreneurs, and business leaders. In addition, a business owner and startup support center should be developed that will be a resource for entrepreneurs and local busi-ness owners and a revolving loan fund should be established through the USDA REDLG program.

• Vacation Rental By Owners (VRBO’s) represents an opportunity to create a unique and compelling neighborhood-centric hospitality product, further differentiating Green River offerings from Moab.

• Temporary closures of the National Parks have happened in the past and could be an external shock to the Green River tourism industry if it occurs again.

• Due to the prevalence of low income demographics, Green River qualifies for various Federal economic development pro-grams, which could be impacted by a reduction in funding un-der the current Administration.

• Previous legislation has been proposed to close the Green River State Park golf course, which if reintroduced and passed, would impact the availability of amenities to visitors and de-crease the amount of visitation to downtown Green River.

• The concentrated tourism industry is highly susceptible to ex-ternal shocks from an economic downtown and a contraction in consumer disposable income.

• Changes to or stricter enforcement of immigration policies may impact the availability of workforce for local businesses.

• A drought may severely impact the availability of water re-sources for the local agricultural producers.

• Continued excess supply of cheap oil in the global market may hamper the level of improvements on planned refinery devel-opments.

• Continued and increasing competition with Moab for busi-nesses and highly-skilled workforce may limit the amount of economic expansion opportunities in Green River.


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CommunityDevelopment–SWOT

Strengths–CommunityDevelopment Weaknesses–CommunityDevelopment

• The community’s location along the Green River has de-fined the City while supporting the agricultural industry and providing recreational opportunities.

• Proximity to outdoor amenities provides an unparalleled quality of life for residents as well as attractions for visitors.

• Existing infrastructure in the Elgin neighborhood provides opportunity for new development in close proximity to the City’s namesake.

• The City has been successful in receiving approval and funding for a trail development project to make the Crystal Geyser more accessible.

• There is a concentration of land and property ownership within the City making it relatively easy to undertake po-tential redevelopment projects.

• The Green River Medical Center is a critical asset for a com-munity the size of Green River and a necessary amenity to attract and retain residents.

• The City’s museum, high school theater program, and art gallery are important stakeholders in the support and pro-motion of the arts within the community.

• The establishment of the Green River Improvement Team (GRIT) has been helpful in creating stewardship regarding community-lead clean-up initiatives.

• Significant personal sacrifices, donations, and volunteer-ism has created a shooting range that is highly-valued by many within the community.

• The abandoned and dilapidated missile base has been a magnet for va-grancy, creating public health and safety issues that the community has struggled to address for many years. The base is a blight that is visible from the freeway and negatively impacts passerby’s perception of the community.

• Blighted properties along Main Street leave an unfavorable impression with visitors and residents alike and hold the community back from real-izing its potential as a basecamp for recreation.

• Multi-jurisdictional boundaries along the Green River present an addi-tional challenge for potential development along the river corridor.

• A lack of both affordable and quality housing stock creates an impediment in retaining and attracting residents.

• A lack of participation/inclusion among the Latino population could con-tinue to alienate many of those that contribute to and support the local economy, as well as limit the ability of the rising generation to contribute as future entrepreneurs, business, and community leaders.

• A general lack of entertainment and retail offerings represents an imped-iment to community development but is not unusual considering the City’s population size.

• A lack of sufficient local contractors makes construction, repair, and maintenance of the existing built environment more costly.

• The general lack of pedestrian friendliness along Main Street creates a significant barrier between businesses on either side of and along the street. Although traffic flows efficiently, UDOT’s road design require-ments are not suitable for community development.


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Opportunities–CommunityDevelopment Threats–CommunityDevelopment

• The State of Utah Parks Division owns land to the north of Main Street that is cur-rently underutilized and represents an opportunity for new development and con-nectivity enhancements along the corridor.

• A Community Reinvestment Area (CRA) should be created that would provide tax increment for new development, blight elimination, and redevelopment along Main Street.

• Opportunities should be explored at the west interchange to expand the service of-ferings to travelers along the I-70 corridor.

• Continued focus on creating trail linkages to neighborhoods, river, and downtown will create a compelling recreational asset for residents and visitors alike.

• Riverbank and channel improvements should be undertaken to improve and strengthen the health of the City’s namesake. These should be done in conjunction with expanding the riverfront commercial corridor along with neighborhood devel-opment and river access improvements to enhance recreational offerings along the river.

• Investing in new housing developments will provide quality stock to residents and new construction should place downward pressure on pricing, making housing more affordable.

• Redevelopment Broadway and Main and creating a “Gateway Project” will improve the appearance of the community and create a defined core that will lead to periph-ery development in adjacent parcels.

• New development should adopt walkable new urbanism guidelines to create desir-able neighborhoods that will generate demand for housing product and accommo-date desirable workforce participants.

• Support art & cultural initiatives with the museum, school, and art gallery to host musical & theater performances, art exhibits, etc. as well as encourage the creation of additional public art throughout the community.

• Petition UDOT to improve Main Street walkability and pedestrian crossings to ac-commodate foot traffic and slowdown passerby’s so they have time to observe and stop at downtown restaurants and businesses.

• The development of community amenities should be explored such as a conference center, bike & skate park, restoration of the Crystal Geyser, and recreation center.

• A reduction in federal and state funding for community development may limit the availa-bility of resources to undertake community de-velopment initiatives.

• Floodplain issues may create impediments to neighborhood development in certain areas along the river corridor.

• The development of autonomous vehicles may negatively impact the number of highway visi-tors that stop in Green River.


25

Workforce&HumanCapitalDevelopment

Strengths–Workforce&HumanCapitalDevelopment Weaknesses–Workforce&HumanCapitalDevelopment

• Low wages, which are prevalent in the community, are often attractive to businesses looking to expand or relocate, as-suming all else is equal in comparative communities.

• Local hunting destinations creates a unique attraction for hunting enthusiasts, some of which are successful business, community, and political leaders. There is a surprising amount of human capital that visits the community.

• The high school has established entrepreneurial and robotic programs that expose students to broader aspirations and higher paying careers.

• Having highly skilled medical staff employed by the Green River Medical Center provides incredible human capital as-sets within the community.

• Local businesses face workforce shortages and quality of work-force issues.

• In general, the community is losing its high school graduates as they seek to further their education and/or seek job opportuni-ties elsewhere.

• The continued loss of the workforce demographic has resulted in an aging population and declining school enrollment.

• A language barrier among first generation Latinos has created an impediment to workforce and human capital development.

• A recent survey revealed a general lack of aspiration among high school students.

• A lack of affordable housing creates impediments to businesses and local institutions needing to attract and retain skilled work-force.

• There are few job opportunities requiring degrees within the community.


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Opportunities–Workforce&HumanCapitalDevelopment Threats–Workforce&HumanCapitalDevel-opment

• Attracting and retaining human capital that creates and strengthens businesses and communities is key to building a thriving community in the knowledge economy. Strategies to target location neutral professionals that appreciate Green River’s rec-reational offerings should be pursued.

• Adult education classes should be offered to teach English as a second language as well as other courses for lifelong learning opportunities.

• Leverage existing and visiting human capital as well as high school alumni by form-ing a “Green River Society” that would mentor high school students and provide connections to access investor networks for local entrepreneurs.

• A film post-production studio may present an opportunity to partnership with an institution of higher education to hold film classes and/or a visiting student pro-gram to take advantage of filming opportunities in the National and State Parks.

• Create strategies to build inclusion among the Latino community by expanding bi-lingual outreach, communication resources, and leadership participation.

• Moab’s new USU campus may limit the ability of Green River to attract interest from institutions of higher education for a satellite campus


27

Branding,Marketing,&EventsPromotion

Strengths–Branding,Marketing,&EventsPromotion Weaknesses–Branding,Marketing,&EventsPromotion

• Emery County Travel Bureau is an advocate of Green River tourism and is actively pursuing outdoor adventure outfit-ters to expand operations to the City.

• A new part-time events coordinator has been hired, which will help establish personnel continuity, stewardship, and accountability for organizing annual events.

• Melon Days has been a staple of the community for many years and a great opportunity in promoting the agricultural products of the local farmers.

• A recent branding effort was undertaken and a new brand and creative collateral is available for promoting the com-munity.

• There is a general lack of public awareness of the surrounding recreational assets of Green River.

• Some events, like the Friendship Cruise, had not been institu-tionalized and have been discontinued.

• Businesses have a general understanding of their customers but no demographic profiling or geographic point of origin analysis has been performed to understand the target market and where community marketing dollars should be strategically deployed.

Opportunities–Branding,Marketing,&EventsPromotion Threats–Branding,Marketing,&EventsPromotion

• Defining visiting demographics & targeted audience will al-low for efficient and effective marketing campaigns to at-tract additional visitors to the community.

• Explore the ability to expand train access from the Wasatch Front and position Green River as a convenient train stop / basecamp for National & State Parks weekend visits.

• Bring back the Friendship Cruise and initiate other events such as a BBQ chuck wagon tour.

• Increase marketing / awareness of Green River by develop-ing additional signage assets along the highway.

• Utilize existing stock footage of the area for marketing col-lateral, including a Green River video.

• The loss of the events coordinator could result in a lack of insti-tutional capacity to undertake future events.

• Shifts in consumer preferences could limit the effectiveness of branding and marketing efforts.


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CityGovernance-SWOT

Strengths–CityGovernance Weaknesses–CityGovernance

• Code enforcement improvements have been made and the City has pri-oritized enforcement to address the immediate concerns of public safety issues.

• The City has initiated a strategic planning process to identify impedi-ments to and opportunities for growth, identifying priorities, and pro-vide consistent direction as Councilmembers turnover.

• The City has had dialogue with external parties regarding the closed missile base and is seeking a resolution to clean-up the site.

• There is a lack of institutional capacity and adequate, ded-icated resources for economic and community develop-ment and to some degree, code enforcement.

• A weak code enforcement ordinance limits the effective-ness of enforcing community standards.

• Building and enforcement codes are perceived as onerous. • Historically, there has been a lack of strategic planning and

an adequate decision-making framework for allocating City resources among different initiatives / priorities.

Opportunities–CityGovernance Threats–CityGovernance

• Create cross-functional teams and involve various departments (like Public Works) in addressing strategic initiatives.

• Dedicate additional resources to and strengthen ordinances to create a robust code enforcement division in order to improve public safety and community appearance.

• Increasing coordination and communication among entities, organiza-tions and businesses to help establish dialogue and improve the ability of the community to address critical issues and build consensus with key stakeholders. This could be accomplished through a weekly “Com-munity Coffee”, which is a concept borrowed from Lake County, Colo-rado, whereby stakeholders come together to share what their organi-zations are doing and make requests for input and support. This weekly forum has been extremely effective in keeping everyone informed of what is happening in the community, reducing duplication of efforts, and garnering community support for key initiatives.

• Formally adopt a guiding framework for decision-making on how to best allocate City resources among different initiatives and strategic priorities.

• Unfavorable economic conditions could reduce the City’s tax revenues, which would impact their ability to provide municipal services and regulatory oversight.


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THECITY’SROLEINIMPLEMENTATIONTherearemanycompetingphilosophiesregarding therole thatGovernmentshouldtakewiththe implementationofaStrategicPlan,andspecificallywiththeinitiativesthathaveadirectimpacton the private sector. There are typically as many opinions asthereareresidents,whichcancreateaveryoverwhelming taskfortheelectedleadersandtheCitystaff.Theopinionsalsotendtoshiftwitheachadministration, leavingCitystaff inapositionoftryingtoscrambletotietogetherlooseends.Ratherthanpresent-ing specific recommendations regarding the exact role that theCity government should take, this documentwill present someguidingprinciplesthatcanbeusedasaframeworkforimplemen-tation.

OneofthemostimportantjobsoftheCitygovernmentistopro-videforthesafetyandwell-beingoflocalresidents.Whenconsid-ering or prioritizing investments, those projects that are abso-lutelyrequiredtoprovideforthesafetyofthepopulationshouldbeaddressedfirstandforemost.Itisimportanttodistinguishbe-tweenwantsandneeds,however,andtheremaybetimeswhenapublicsafetywant,suchasanewfire-truck,maynotactuallybeaneeduntilbuildingheightsorpopulationsizedictatetheinvest-ment.

Publicservicessuchasprovidingwaterandsewershouldalsobea toppriority to thedegree that the infrastructure isnegativelyimpactingthequalityoflifeofresidents.

Beyond thesemission-critical investments, theCitygovernmentshouldevaluatepotential investmentsandinitiativesbylookingat a cost-benefit analysis. For example, building new sidewalksand beautifying streets is a worthy investment that often haswidespread community support, but in the long-run itmaynot

contributeasmuchtotheCommunityasinvestinginastrategicproject,suchasthedowntownredevelopmentorriverfrontdevel-opmentinitiativesoutlinedinPhaseI.Itisimportanttorememberthatmunicipal revenuesareadirect resultofprivate-sector in-vestment, not municipal investment. Therefore, if municipalspending is not also inducing significant private-sector invest-ment, then thosemunicipal investmentsmust be reconsidered.Spendingmunicipalfundsthatdonotresultinanincreasedtax-baseisakintokillingthegoldengoose,whereasinvestmentinaproject that induces private-sector investment is providinggrowthhormonetothegoose.

Major projects require funding assistance frommany differentsourcessuchasgrants,butinmostcasesmatchingmoneyisre-quired.Therearemanyexamplesofcommunitiesthathaveallo-catedrelativelymodestsumsofmoney,andleveragedthosefundsto achievemarvelous redevelopment results. But it is farmorecommontoseemunicipalitieswastemoneyonnon-strategicpro-jects,onlytofindthemselvesonthesinkingshipofshrinkingtaxrevenuesandgrowingexpenses.

Inadditiontofinancialcontributions,theCityplaysanimportantroleduringimplementationbyshowingleadershipandfosteringcommunitysupport.Advocacy,publicengagement,eventpromo-tion,andexpendingpoliticalcapitalareallcriticalactivitiesthatareexceedinglydifficulttoaccomplishiftheCitydoesn’ttakeanactiveroleincoordinatingefforts.Itdoesn’tnecessarilymeanthatelectedofficialsandCitystaffhavetodoeverything,butaunitedleadershipteamanddelegationtolocalprojectchampionswillen-surethattheprojectscontinuetoprogressthroughthelongandtryingtrenchesofpre-development.


30

ItisimpossibletoanticipateallthepotentialdecisionpointsthatfutureCityleaderswillhavetoaddresswhenitcomestoimple-mentation,but inallcases the leadershipshouldapproacheachquestionbyevaluatingthecost,andthefuturebenefit.Thebenefitcan take the formof improving the quality of life (and therebyplayingaroleinattractingnewresidentsandbusinesses),orcon-tributing to the tax base. Projects that can accomplish both ofthesetaskssimultaneouslyshouldalmostalwaystakepriority.

NEXTSTEPSThethirdphaseoftheStrategicPlanwilloutlinetheimplementa-tionstrategyfortheprojectsandinitiativeshighlightedinPhaseIandPhaseII. Itwill identifypotential fundingsources,potentialprojectchampions,andwillprovideaframeworkforhowtoap-proacheachofthecatalyticprojects.Whenapplicable,itwillalsoidentify potential impediments, and suggestions for how to ad-dressthoseimpedimentsshouldtheyarise.

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