Green Week 2012

Science, values and healthy European Seas

Prof Laurence Mee Scottish Association for

Marine Science

Imagine a wetland landscape

Image: Laurence Mee

Trash it

Image: Laurence Mee

Watch the reaction

Image: BSEP/Laurence Mee

Imagine an underwater landscape

Image: Jason Hall-Spencer

Drag seven chain-link dredges through it

Image: Jason Hall-Spencer

Watch the reaction

Image: Laurence Mee

Our seas are changing

29 OCTOBER 2010 LAST UPDATED AT 17:13

Jellyfish 'may benefit from ecosystem instability‘ By Mark Kinver Science And Environment Reporter, BBC News The causes behind jellyfish blooms are difficult to disentangle, say the authors A team of researchers have been trying to identify how jellyfish may benefit from marine ecosystems destabilised by climate change and overfishing.

Image: Laurence Mee

INVASIVE SPECIES

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS ON PLANKTON

A sea of problems

NOISE

EUTROPHICATION Image: Laurence Mee

Are people concerned about Europe’s seas?

Concerned about Climate Change . .

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

Concerned about the health of the oceans .

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

North Sea Catch, Cod

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Thou

sand

s of

tons

Shifting baselines

North Sea Catch, Cod

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Thou

sand

s of

tons

A good year!

Shifting baselines

North Sea Catch, Cod

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Thou

sand

s of

tons

A bad year!

Shifting baselines

North Sea Catch, Cod

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

Thou

sand

s of

tons

A good year?

Shifting baselines

Industrial Pollution as a Major Threat

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

Fisheries as a Major Environmental Threat

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

The communications gap

A legacy of the past

Image: Laurence Mee

Indus

try po

llutio

nLit

ter

Oil and

gas e

xtrac

tion

Climate

chan

ge

Ocean

acidi

ficati

on

Shippin

g

Fishe

ries

New/in

trodu

ced s

pecie

s

Farm

ing

Aquac

ulture

Marine

rene

wables

UKPoland

GermanyItaly

FrancePortugal

Spain

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Threats to the marine environment

UKPolandGermanyItalyFrancePortugalSpain

The communications gap

Opportunities

Images: NOC, SNH, Pelamis, SAMS/Hugh Brown

Weathe

r and

clim

ateSou

rce of

food

For it

s sce

nery

Educa

tion a

nd sc

ience

Trade

and s

hippin

g

Produc

er of

energ

y

Recrea

tion &

touri

sm

Culture

and i

denti

tyEmplo

ymen

tFo

r crea

tivity

UKGermany

PolandFrance

ItalySpain

Portugal

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Importance to respondent for...

UKGermanyPolandFranceItalySpainPortugal

Values and worldviews

Competing demands for marine space

Non-fishing use Fishing vessel tracks, 2002

Our crowded seas

From the Irish Sea Pilot study, 2005.

Source: WWF 2010

Complexity

Image: Laurence Mee

Tame and Wicked problems

“Tame” problem can be solved by careful rules-based or consensus management

“Wicked” problem involves moral judgements and value-based decisions: governance.

Clear solutions

No clear solution; there will be winners and losers

First order “fixes”

Hard choices

Jentoft and Chuenpagdee (2009) Fisheries and coastal governance as a wicked problem

Tim O’Higgins - SAMS

Complex trade offs across international boundaries

Tim O’Higgins - SAMS

Land-sea trade offs

Tim O’Higgins - SAMS

Global scale trade offs

Marine systems are often unpredictable

Images: BP and Laurence Mee

A resource planning and management approach that recognizes the connections between land, air, water and all living things, including people, their activities and institutions.

Definition from the KnowSeas project team

The Ecosystem Approach

Descriptors for the MSFD

Coastal waters and beaches rated as Good

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

How people see ‘Good Environmental Status’

Adaptive management

Management across multiple spatial and temporal scales

Stepping stones to a sustainable future

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

Baseline studies

Methods

ASSESSMENT

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

A measureable aspirational goal for

the future

Baseline studies

Methods

Emerging Issues

SETTING THE VISION

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

EU Marine Strategy Directive

Good Environmental Status (2020)

Baseline studies

Methods

Emerging Issues

SETTING THE VISION

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

EU Marine Strategy Directive

Good Environmental Status (2020)

Baseline studies

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

Methods

Emerging Issues

DEFINING THE FIRST STEP

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

EU Marine Strategy Directive

Good Environmental Status (2020)

Baseline studies

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

NECESSARY INDICATORS

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

EU Marine Strategy Directive

Good Environmental Status (2020)

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Baseline studies

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

MONITORING IS ESSENTIAL

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

EU Marine Strategy Directive

Good Environmental Status (2020)

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Baseline studies

Regulations and compliance

Fast feedback loop

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

COMPLIANCE AND FEEDBACK

Statutory Periodic Assessment•State of the marine environment• Pressures and their human causes• Institutions, laws, policies, economic instruments

EU Marine Strategy Directive

Good Environmental Status (2020)

Regular monitoring (all indicators)

Baseline studies

Regulations and compliance

Slow feedback loop

Status and trends

Fast feedback loop

Robust quantitative system state indicators

to measure impact

Operational indicators: process, pressures,

societal & governance

Methods

Emerging Issues

Regional/National PolicyEnvironmental targets

Spatial planning

PROGRESS TOWARDS THE VISION

Building trust in institutions (1)

The EU is competent to manage and protect the ocean environment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

National governments are competent to manage and protect the ocean environment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

Building trust in institutions (2)

Scientific organisations are competent to manage and protect the ocean environment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64

Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

Environmental groups are competent to manage and protect the ocean environment

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64Age group

FranceItalyGermanySpainPolandUKPortugal

Negotiated closed areas for species and habitat conservation

Shetland Shellfish Management Organisation proposed closure areas

Marine Spatial Planning

Embracing innovation: Industry is not the enemy!

The Blue Growth Agenda for Sustainable use of the sea

Basically we are facing a choice; either we team up to sustain marine life or we face a future of catastrophes and lost causes: fisheries, biodiversity, coastal landscapes, and the jobs and human values that depend on them.

Conclusion

Knowledge-based Sustainable Management for Europe’s Seas

www.knowseas.com