Recommendation: Buy Och-Ziff (OZM)
Key Investment Points
• Stellar risk adjusted performance of their funds
• Good dividend
• Unfairly discounted valuation
•Opportune entry point
Industry Overview
•Focus on operational excellence, growth, performance, risk management, and compliance
•Asset Management CEOs most optimistic out of any industry
•Very capable of adaptation and reinvention
•Asset allocation shift towards Alternative Assets
Merger arbitrageConvertible arbitrageEquity RestructuringCredit and distressed debtPrivate Equity (to a lesser extent)Real Estate (to a lesser extent)
Prev Close: 9.481y Target Est:
12.44
52wk Range:
7.32-17.56
Avg Vol (3m):
1,798,120
Market Cap:
955.41M
P/E (ttm): 18.96EPS (ttm): .50Div & Yield: .36 (3.90%)Forward P/E: 7.82
Investment Information
3 Year Price Graph (Morningstar)
SWOT Analysis
StrengthsAlignment of InterestTeam based cultureSynergies among investment strategiesFocused on infrastructureDividendLow leverage
WeaknessesUncorrelated Equity vs. Fund performanceExtensive regulationNo sunset provision/high water mark reset
OpportunitiesExpansion of global presenceStructured Credit3-year money contribution to revenue
ThreatsChina breakdown and global economic effectsNew debt and AUM covenantsLoss of key partner(s)Exchange of Group A unit for Class A shareInvestors demand lower fees
Investment Thesis
• We should own this stock to take advantage of performance fees not yet priced in. Management fees make up most of the current valuation and 3 year money is scheduled to boost management fees significantly in 2012 and 2013.
Historical average industry P/E 12-13 OZM earnings Earnings (ttm) 1.11
Value 13.32 – 14.43 Earnings (2011 forecast) .50
Value 6.00-6.5 Earnings (2012 forecast) 1.19
Value 14.28 – 15.47Average 2011/2012 forecast Current Value 10.14 – 10.98 Stock currently
undervalued
Sector : Alternatives Industry Group: Asset Management Current Holdings: ODMAX, PRPFX, MOO, GXG Target Sector Allocation: 10%, $47,641 Current Sector Allocation: 7.5% , $35,696 Remaining Allocation: 2.5%, $11,945
BUY 800 shares of OZM at Limit Price of 9.48 (approx. $7,584 1.5% of portfolio)
Holding Period/Exit Strategy: 12 months, Consider selling if stock price rises above $15.
Portfolio Placement / Recommendation
Recommendation: Buy iShares MSCI Canada Etf (ECW)
Key Investment Points
• Second largest oil reserve behind Saudi Arabia
• Financially stable country
• Resource rich
• Chemicals, Energy, Minerals
Industry Overview
•Better GDP growth than US 2.7% vs. 1.8% yet the index has lagged the S&P 500 -15% vs. 2.11%
•More expansion potential in terms of agriculture due to growth in arable land
•Low fiscal public debt to GDP ratio 34%
•Less exposure to European crisis than US or emerging markets
•Currently trading at about par with the dollar despite the dollar’s rise
Sector Breakdown
•Financials 31.98%
•Energy 26.66%
•Materials 21.32%
•Industrials 5.79%
•Consumer D 3.47%
•Telecom 3.28%
•Consumer S 3.01%
•Utilities 1.29%
•Information T 1.22%
•Health Care 1.18%
•Other .81%
Royal Bank of Canada 6.14% TD Bank 5.67% Bank of Nova Scotia 4.64% Suncor Energy 4.22% Barrick Gold 4.06% Canadian Natural Res 3.41% Potash of Sask 3.22% Goldcorp 3.08% Bank of Montreal 3.04% Canadian Natural Rail 2.89%
Prev Close: 27.631y Target Est:
12.44
52wk Range:
23.48-34.57
Avg Vol (3m):
2,512,750
Market Cap:
4.47B
P/E (ttm): 13.61EPS (ttm): 2.00Div & Yield: .39 &
2.60%Forward P/E: N/A
Investment Information
3 Year Price Graph (Morningstar)
SWOT Analysis
Strengths
Financially stable countryFinancially stable holdingsExposure to OilLow exposure to European crisis
Weaknesses
Slow global growthOil production cumbersomeLow population
Opportunities
Increase global trade outside of USOverlooked upside potentialIncrease Oil production
Threats
China breakdown and global economic effects
Investment Thesis
•We should own this security to diversify out of dollar denominated assets as a result of potential QE3 and gain exposure to Canada's rich resources and financial stability. This is an opportune time to take advantage of the divergence in the index's performance and the country's fundamentals.
Sector : Alternatives Industry Group: Asset Management Current Holdings: ODMAX, PRPFX, MOO, GXG Target Sector Allocation: 10%, $47,641 Current Sector Allocation: 7.5% , $35,696 Remaining Allocation: 2.5%, $11,945
BUY 400 shares of EWC at Limit Price of 27.63 (approx. $11,052 2.32% of portfolio)
Holding Period/Exit Strategy: 12 months, Consider selling if stock price rises above $34.
Portfolio Placement / Recommendation