Gridded population projections
Brian O’Neill, NCAR2016 GTAP Advisory Board Meeting
June 14, 2016Washington, DC
Uses
Climate change impacts (e.g.,extremes, coastal impacts)
Spatial allocation of emissions
Spatial land use and land cover
Subnational energy and water demand
Main Features
Global extent
2010-2100 time horizon
Urban and rural population
1/8 degree (~12 km) resolution
Jones & O’Neill, in review.Jones & O’Neill, 2012,
2015 (US only)
Data
Gridded Population of the World (GPW), SEDAC/CIESIN1990, 2000 (2010 released in beta), 2.5 arc minutes (~5 km)
Global Rural-Urban Mapping Projection (GRUMP)
Administrative Boundaries Population density
Costa Rica
Projection Model
Gravity modelConstrained by national-level projections of total population and % urbanParameters estimated from historical data (GPW/GRUMP)
Five Global Scenarios
SSP1
a f
SSP3
c h
Nigeria
SSP1:Low populationHigh urbanizationConcentrated
development
SSP3:High populationLow urbanizationSprawling
development
Density, 2100 Change in Density
Jones & O’Neill, in review.
Spatial population projections
Billion person-days per year of exposure to heat waves, 2061-2080
800
600
400
200
0
High climateToday Med climate
High pop.
Low pop.
High pop.
Low pop.
Climate model projections
Example Application: Future exposure to heat waves
Jones et al., in prep.
SSP 5Fossil-fueled Development
Global Pop.2061-2080 avg.8.5 billion
PopulationChange
PopulationDensity
Jones & O’Neill, in prep.
Quantitative projections of SSP elements
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
GDP
per c
apits
($/c
ap -
PPP)
GDP/capPopulation
Urbanization
(IIASA) (NCAR) (OECD, PIK, IIASA)
(CUNY, NCAR)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Popu
latio
n (M
illio
ns)
Distance (km)
Population by Distanceto the CoastFlorida, 2100
A2, High Pop. Growth
EPAmodel
NCAR model, lower pop. growth (B2)
NCARmodel
IIASAmodel
Current
Mosquito occurrence pattern:Type 1: Year-around potential for high abundanceType 2: Year-around presence but only seasonal potential for high abundanceType 3: Only seasonal presence of active stages, with overwintering eggsType 4: Only seasonal presence of active stages, with no overwintering eggs producing viable larvae
Monaghan et al., submitted.
Monaghan et al., submitted.
Urbanization
France: SSP5