Group ThinkSocial Psychology Unit

Group Think:

• Definition: When a group of “relatively” intelligent people unintentionally make poor decisions.

• Examples: • The Attack on Pearl Harbor• The Bay of Pigs• Our Strategy in Vietnam• The Collapse of Swissair

Group Think

•Always keep in mind that the Group Think is a bad thing that happens when smart people get together and unwittingly make bad decisions.

Group Think

1. Diffusion of Responsibility: When you have a large group, no one individual feels totally responsible for any decision you make.

2. An illusion of Invulnerability: the false belief that there is no way you can loose or no way you might make a bad decision

3. Unquestioned belief in the group’s morality: When you assume that everyone in the group has good intentions and no ulterior motives.

Group Think

4. Rationalization: attempting to justify a hasty or bad idea.

5. Stereotyped view of opponent: prejudging your opponent or a person (usually in a negative way) based on the group they are associated with.

6. Conformity Pressure: when you are in a group, you want to please the group or you are afraid of being punished by the group, so you agree with them.

Group Think

7. Self-Censorship: you choose not to say something in front of the group that you think the group might not agree with or like.

8. Illusion of unanimity: the false belief that everyone else agrees with the groups decision.

9. Mindguards: this is when people in the group do not consider or look for any information that might contradict their opinion or desired course of action.

Why did we invade IraQ?

• We believed they had weapons of mass destruction• We believed Iran and North Korea had them too.

• We Believed that Iraq was an easier target and would send a message to North Korea and Iran

• We believed they were involved in 9/11• We knew that a lot of Saudi Arabians were

involved in 9/11

• We wanted to spread democracy to the Middle East

Group Think: Invasion of Iraq

1. Diffusion of Responsibility:

Example: Other countries believed that Iraq had WMD as well. Both Republicans and Democrates voted to act against Sadam.

2. An illusion of Invulnerability:

Example: We believed that for a small amount of money, a few troops, and a year or two we could easily defeat an infereior military and population who did not like their leader

3. Unquestioned belief in the group’s morality:

Example: Did we consider that military leaders wanted to just play with their new weapons and seek after promotions and glory. Pres. Wanted to avenge their father’s shame, some people stood to make millions by going to war. Others wanted to test out their ideological theories.

Group Think

4. Rationalization:

Example: Our/the international policy on re-emptive strikes. We can’t afford to wait. If we don’t do anything the terrorist win. Even if we don’t find WMD, Sadam is a bad guy and we want Iraq to be free.

5. Stereotyped view of opponent:

Example: All Iraqis want to get rid of Sadam. They have a weak military and a weak will. They want a secular democracy with a free market economy. “They will welcome us as liberators.”

6. Conformity Pressure:

Example: “So you want the terrorist to win? “ The Secretary of the Army and the Secretary of the Treasury were fired for saying things the Administration did not want to hear.

Ethnicity/Oil Fields

1st vs. 2nd Gulf wars

• 1990 Gulf War objective: Remove Iraqi military form Kuwait.• -We used 800,000 Troops (500,000 American, 300,000

coalition.• -Result: War was over in 100 hours. We kept a small force

in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to keep Sadam in check.

2003 Gulf War: Defeat the Iraqi military, change their style of government and economics, replace or retrain their military and police force, provide security in the meantime-We wanted to only use 150,000 US troops and 30,000 coalition troops.

-We planned to start pulling out the majority of troops within 6 months.

Iraq, Kuwait, Iran

PopulationIraq: 33 MillionKuwait: 2.8 MillionIran: 74.7 Million

Number of Troops/Cost of War

• Secretary of the Army said: • We will need 500,000 troops• He was fired and we found someone who said

we could do it with 150,000

• Secretary of the Treasury said: • White House said it would cost between 60-100

Billion“Iraqi oil revenues will pay for reconstruction”

White House economic advisor says it will cost 200 Billion.

He was fired

• The Iraq war ended up costing 1 Trillion dollars

Group Think

7. Self-Censorship:

Example: Nobody is willing to point out that 20% of the Iraqis will not be excited about this. Or that we are seen as Pro-Israeli Occupiers in the middle east. If you spoke out against the plan you done as a Gov Employee. Even the press did not ask any hard questions.

8. Illusion of unanimity:

Example: No reputable Democrats spoke out. Even Collin Powell, the moderate one was used as the messenger at the UN.

9. Mindguards:

Example: We did not plan for the reconstruction, we did not have a plan for what to do with the Military or Police force. We didn’t consider that the majority party in a democratic election might ally with Iran. What happens if a civil war breaks out.

Sources

• http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2011/12/leadup-iraq-war-timeline

• PBS Frontline: War Behind Closed Doors

• David Meyers’ College Social Psychology Textbook