Toward a Unified Field Theory of Violent, Non-State Groups

A presentation by Dr. Steven MetzU.S. Army War College Strategic Studies

InstituteJanuary 2008

A Dimension-Based Typology Patterns of Development Implications

There is a range of non-state groups willing to operate outside the law and use violence

These may or may not seek to control all or part of a state and administer it, seek revolutionary change, use a militant ideology, rely on terrorism, etc.

formal/complex------------informal/simpleformal/complex------------informal/simple ideological---------------------nonideologicalideological---------------------nonideological self-serving-------------------constituency servingself-serving-------------------constituency serving homogenous-----------------heterogeneoushomogenous-----------------heterogeneous limited goals-----------------revolutionary goalslimited goals-----------------revolutionary goals tightly bound------------------loosely boundtightly bound------------------loosely bound non-threatening-------------most threateningnon-threatening-------------most threatening less violent--------------------more violentless violent--------------------more violent autonomous-----------------dependentautonomous-----------------dependent linked----------------------------unlinkedlinked----------------------------unlinked

Grievance to greed Decreasing ideology, less expansive

objectives Increasing formalization, complexity,

linkages, and constituency-serving behavior

Fragmentation Often greater reliance on violence

First thing we must decide is whether we want a group to be less threatening or weaker

If it is less threatening, then we may need to propel them toward increasing formalization, complexity, linkages, and constituency-serving behavior

If it is weaker, we may need to propel them toward fragmentation and delinkage

Contact Information:

Dr. Steven MetzDr. Steven MetzStrategic Studies InstituteStrategic Studies Institute122 Forbes Avenue122 Forbes AvenueCarlisle Barracks, PA 17013-5244Carlisle Barracks, PA 17013-5244

steven.metz@us.army.milsteven.metz@us.army.milvoice: 717 245-3822voice: 717 245-3822wireless: 717 448-6166wireless: 717 448-6166fax: 717 245-3820fax: 717 245-3820

web: web: http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/mil/