Growth accounting in the new industry classification standard; SNI 2007 ─ a work in progress
Saltsjöbaden 06-10-2011
What I am going to talk about
• What we have done and what we plan to do
• Some preliminary results• Labour composition• Industry differences for the whole period• The average for all industries and goods and
service industries
What is growth accounting?
• Growth in gross production
• -The weighted input of production factors• Energy• Material• Services• Labour service including quality• Capital service
• =Multifactor productivity
That we have done so far
•The data we have in the new industry classification;
• Gross production • Value added• Worked hour• Labour quality
•Constructed data• Capital• Preliminary years
That we plan to do
•Capital
•ICT-capital
•More developed use of the preliminary years
•Labour quality for preliminary years based on the Labour force survey
Some preliminary results
•Labour composition
•Industry difference for the whole period 1993-2010
•Development for the average industry
Labour composition
• How the market value those who work in the private sector• Age • Ethnicity• Educational level• Educational orientation
• However not two sexes
Labour input 1993-2008: Age distribution
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
61-70 Year46-60 Year31-45 Year21-30 Year16-20 year
Labour input 1993-2008: Ethnicity distribution
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rest of the World
EU15, North Ame and Ocean
Swedish
Labour input 1993-2008 Education distribution
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Research
Graduate
Undergraduate
Upper secondary 3 year
Upper secondary 2 year
9 Year
Less than 9 Year
Labour quality1993-2008 : Age groups
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
16-20 years21-30 years31-45 years46-60 years61-70 years
Labour quality1993-2008 Education groups
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 20080.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2 Less than 9 Year9 YearUpper secondary 2 yearUpper secondary 3 yearUndergraduateGraduateResearch
GP average yearly growth rate 1993-2010 Industry differences
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
GP
GP average yearly growth rate 1993-2010 Industry differences
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
GP C26 Electronics
J61 Telecom
Q87-88 Helth and Care
GP average yearly growth rate 1993-2010 Industry differences
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
GP C26 Electronics
J61 Telecom
Q87-88 Helth and Care
A03 Fishing
C13-15 Tex-tile
Labour contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Labour
Labour contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
LabourQ87-88 Health and Care
K66 Service to financial firmsP 85 Educa-tion
Labour contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
LabourQ87-88 Health and Care
K66 Service to financial firmsP 85 Educa-tion
A03 Fishing
C18 Publishing and printing
Capital contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Capital
Capital contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
CapitalN77 Leasing
P85 Educa-tion
P 86 Health and Care
Capital contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
CapitalN77 Leasing
P85 Educa-tion
P 86 Health and Care
E36-37 Sewage
A01 Farming
MFP contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
MFP
MFP contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
MFPC26 Electron-ics
J61 Telecom
G47 Retail
MFP contribution to GP growth, average yearly growth rate 1993-2010
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
MFPC26 Electron-ics
J61 Telecom
G47 Retail
Q87-88 Health and CareC18 Publishing and printing
Growth pattern for 1993-2010
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Growth pattern for 1993-2010
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
It is necessary to aggregate
• We do not have weighted means yet
• We use unweighted means instead• For all industries• Goods industries• Service industries
• This means that the result are representative for the average industry but it is not the industry average
Decomposition of the GP growth 1993-2007
Goods Serv Tot
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05EMSLabCapMFP
Decomposition of the EMS growth 1993-2007
Goods Serv Tot0
0.005
0.01
0.015
0.02
0.025
Energy Materials Services
GP growth1993-2010
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
GPMeanTot
GPMeanGoods
GPMeanService
Labour contribution to the GP-growth
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
LabMeanTot
LabMeanGoods
LabMeanService
MFP contribution to the GP-growth
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
-0.03
-0.02
-0.01
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04MFPMeanTot
MFPMeanGoods
MFPMeanService
The relation between R&D 2007 and MFP-growth 1993-2010
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
MFP
R&D-intensity
The relation between R&D 2007 and MFP-growth 1993-2010
0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
MFP
Linear (MFP)
R&D-intensity
That was all for now
Thanks for listening
So now we have to continue our work
EMS contribution to the GP-growth
19941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010
-0.1
-0.08
-0.06
-0.04
-0.02
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
EMSMeanTot
EMSMeanGoods
EMSMeanService
Capital contribution to the GP-growth
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
2010
-0.004
-0.002
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
CapMeanTot
CapMeanGoods
CapMeanService