GROWTH RATE & ESTIMATED POPULATION

INDUSTRIALIZATION/URBANIZTIONBY ROLL NO. 4,5,6

GROWTH RATEThe "population growth rate" is the rate at

which the number of individuals in a

population increases in a given time period

as a fraction of the initial population.

Specifically, population growth rate refers to

the change in population over a unit time

period, often expressed as a percentage of

the number of individuals in the population at

the beginning of that period

SALIENT FEATURES

O Approx. 95% of the growth is occurring in

developing countries.

O Currently, one third of the world’s population is

under the age of 15 and will soon enter the

reproductive bracket, giving more potential growth.

O The expected no. of births per woman at current

fertility rates is 6.1 for AFRICA, 3.2 for ASIA and 2.0

for NORTH AMERICA.

O The world’s population is growing at 176 people per

minute.

Relationship between growth rate & population

RATING ANNUAL GROWTH RATE

YEARS FOR DOUBLED

POPULATION

Stationary NO GROWTH

Slow growth Less than 0.5 More than 139

years

Moderate growth 0.5 to 1 139 – 70

Rapid growth 1 to 1.5 70 – 47

Very Rapid

growth

1.5 to 2.0 47 – 35

Explosive

growth

2.0 to 2.5 35 - 28

" 2.5 o 3.0 28 - 23

TYPES OF GROWTH RATES

A POSITIVE GROWTH RATE indicates that

the population is increasing.

A NEGATIVE GROWTH RATE indicates the

population is decreasing.

A ZERO GROWTH RATE indicates that there

were the same number of people at the two

times—a growth rate may be zero even when

there are significant changes in the birth

rates, death rates, immigration rates, and age

distribution between the two times

DATAOGlobally, the growth rate of the human

population has been declining since

peaking in 1962 and 1963 at 2.20% per

annum. In 2009, the estimated annual

growth rate was 1.1%.

OAccording to United Nations population

statistics, the world population grew by

30%, or 1.6 billion people, between 1990

and 2010. In number of people the increase

was highest in India (350 million)

AGE PYRAMIDOThe age structure of a population is best

represented as “age pyramid”. A vivid

contrast may be seen in the age distribution

of men and women in India and the UK.

OThe age pyramid of India is typical of

underdeveloped countries with a broad base

and a tapering top. In the developed

countries as in UK the pyramid generally

shows a bulge in the middle and has a

narrower base.

MEGA CITYThe UN defines mega cities as those with a

population of 10 millions or more. In 1950

only New York was classified as a mega city.

By 1995, the number rose to 14 mega cities

and Mumbai, Calcutta and Delhi were

included in the list.

URBANIZATIONOGrowing urbanization is the recent phenomenon

in developing countries. The percentage of the

population residing in urban areas has

increased dramatically. The number of urban

areas and towns has increased from 3378 in

1981 to 3768 in 1991

OThe increase in urban population has been

attributed both to natural growth and migration

from villagers because of employment

opportunities and availability of social services

such as education, health, entertainment etc.

IMPACTS OF URBANISATION

I. INDUSTRIALIZATION:

Industrialization is a major cause of urbanization. It

has expanded the employment opportunities. Rural

people have migrated to cities on account of better

employment opportunities.

ii. SOCIAL FACTORS:

Many social factors such as attraction of cities, better

standard of living, better educational facilities, need

for status also induce people to migrate to cities.

iii. EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES:

In rural sector people have to depend mainly on

agriculture for their livelihood. But Indian

agriculture is depending on monsoon. In drought

situations or natural calamities, rural people

have to migrate to cities.

iv. MODERNIZATION:

Urban areas are characterized by sophisticated

technology better infrastructure, communication,

medical facilities, etc. People feel that they can

lead a comfortable life in cities and migrate to

cities.

EFFECTS OF URBANIZATION

The various effects of urbanisation

include:

LITERACY

LIFE EXPECTANCY

AGE OF MARRIAGE

FAMILY PLANNING

EDUCATION

FACTORS AFFECTING POPULATION GROWTH

RATE There are numerous factors affecting the population

growth rate. But the main factors include:

BIRTH RATE

FERTILITY

DEATH RATE

NET MIGRATION.

BIRTH RATEIt is the average number of the children born

in a country compared to the rest of the

population. In other words, it is the number

of births for every 1000 people in the

country.

Birth rate=Number of live births x 1000

Total population

Existing age-sex structure

Availability of family planning services

Social and religious beliefs - especially in

relation to contraception and abortion

Female employment

Economic prosperity

Typical age of marriage

FACTORS AFFECTING THE BIRTH

RATE

HIGH BIRTH RATECauses are -:

I. Universality of marriage

II. Early marriage

III. Early puberty

IV. Low level of literacy

V. Low standard of living

VI. Absence of family planning habit

DECLINING BIRTH RATE

I. Absence of natural death

II. Mass control of diseases

III. Advancement

IV. Better health facilities

V. Social consciousness

FERTILITY By fertility is meant the actual bearing of children.

A woman’s reproductive age is from 15-45 years (a period of 30 years). Information on fertility in India indicates that a woman gives birth to an average of 6-7 children if her marriage life is uninterrupted.

Fertility depends on several factors. The high fertility in India is attributed to universality of marriage, lower age at marriage, low level of literacy, limited use of contraceptives etc.

FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILITYSome of the factors which have engaged the

attention of demographers are discussed

below:

AGE AT MARRIAGE

ECONOMIC STATUS

EDUCATION

FAMILY PLANNING

SPACING OF CHILDREN

DEATH RATEThe number of people who die each year compared to

every 1000 people in the population is known as death

rate.

Death rate=number of deaths x 1000

Total population

Factors affecting Death rate in a country

Medical facilities and health care

Access to clean drinking water

Hygiene levels

Levels of infectious diseases

Social factors such as conflicts and levels of violent crime

NET MIGRATIONEmigration is when a person moves out of the

country.

Immigration is when a person moves into a country.

Net Migration is the difference between emigration

and immigration.

If net immigration is positive it will lead to a

population increase, a negative net immigration will

lead to a fall in population of the country.