GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 1 Transport Fuels for the Future Neville Thompson, David Rickeard...

GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 1

Transport Fuels for the Future

Neville Thompson,

David Rickeard

CONCAWE

Inland Transport Committee Round Table, 20 February 2002, Geneva


• Achievements to date, future challenges

• Drivers for changes to fuels

• Fuels for advanced conventional vehicles

• Fuel requirements of longer term vehicle options

• CONCAWE activities

• Conclusions

TRANSPORT FUELS FOR THE FUTURE


DRAMATIC REDUCTION IN REGULATED EMISSIONS

0

20

40

60

80

100

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Reg

ula

ted

em

issi

on

s li

mit

s, %

Gasoline HC+NOx LD Diesel HC+NOx LD Diesel PM

HD Diesel PM HD Diesel NOx


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Emis

sion

s, %

of 1

995

leve

l CO

NOx

PM-diesel

VOC

Benzene

SO2

CO2

Source : European Commission

NEW FOCUS ON GREENHOUSE GASES

Future challenge: Reduce CO2 while maintaining low regulated emissions


• Real benefits when fuel change enables a step change in engine / after-treatment technology

MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS IN FUEL QUALITY ACHIEVED

Major reductions in gasoline emissions through catalytic converters + lead-free gasoline

Further reductions in emissions through low sulphur fuels + advanced after-treatment systems for gasoline and diesel vehicles

Lead

Sulphur







• Conclusions



FUTURE FUEL NEEDS DEPEND ON VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY

Conventional vehicle developments: Advanced gasoline engines

- Direct Injection, Variable Valve Actuation, Downsizing

: Improved diesel engines- Multiple high pressure injections, Exhaust gas recirculation

: Advanced after-treatment- Lean NOx converters, PM traps, Improved TWC

: Hybrids===> Sulphur-free fuels meet the needs of all these vehicles

: Novel combustion systems e.g. HCCI need more study

Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles: Best way to deliver hydrogen to the vehicle still unclear

- Gasoline-type, methanol, direct hydrogen ?

===> New fuels will be required, but more work needed


• Changes will be gradual as new vehicles enter the fleet• Increased diesel / reduced gasoline demand expected• Slow penetration of new technologies, e.g. fuel cell vehicles

CONVENTIONAL VEHICLES DOMINATE FUTURE MARKET

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

New

veh

icle

sal

esConventional

Gasoline

DI / Advanced gasoline

DI / Advanced Diesel

IDI Diesel

Hybrids Fuel Cells

Source: EUCAR







• Conclusions



LOWER SULPHUR FUELS ENABLE ADVANCED VEHICLES

• Advanced engines and after-treatment systems can achieve very low emissions with low Sulphur fuels

• Influence of other fuel properties becomes small

Source:DETR/SMMT/CONCAWE Particulates programmeand AECC

LD Diesel NEDC emissions

0.00

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

0.08

0.09

Euro-2 Euro-3 Euro-3 +DPF

Euro-3 +DPF

DeNOxpotential

Em

issi

on

s (P

M,

NO

x/1

0),

g/k

m

EN590:1999

Sw Class1

UK ULSD

PM NOx

PMlimits

2000

NOxlimits

20052005

2000


REFINERY CO2 INCREASES WITH FUEL CHANGES

• Future fuel changes need careful evaluation on a well-to-wheels basis

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

0100200300400

Sulphur specification (ppm)

Ad

dit

on

al C

O2 e

mis

sio

ns

(M

t/a) Diesel

Gasoline

Refinery CO2 Emissions, EU-15

Source:CONCAWE


GHG EMISSIONS NEED WELL-TO-WHEELS APPROACH

• Conventional fuels require a relatively small proportion of energy for their manufacture

• Reducing C/H ratio by hydrogenation is always CO2 negative

• Energy use and GHG emissions in production of alternative fuels can be substantial

• Well-to-wheels approach is needed to identify the best options• Definitive answers not easy

• Results very sensitive to the input assumptions

• Ongoing research effort needed

• CONCAWE actively involved


ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR IC ENGINES

• No clear advantage for alternative fuels in Internal Combustion Engines – Hybrid vehicles show promise

Source:Shell, SAE Paper 2001-01-1343

Greenhouse gas emissions, g/km

0

50

100

150

200

250

Gasolin

e TW

C

Diese

l

CNG TW

C

FT Die

sel

DME D

iese

l

Compre

ssed

H2

Gasolin

e hyb

rid

Diese

l hyb

rid

vehicle emission

fuel production


• Benefits highly dependent on assumptions on use of co-products • Use of all set-aside land in EU-15 would replace < 2% of road transport fuels on an

energy basis

BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL ENERGY CREDITB

ette

r

Net Energy Saved

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Base case,no credits

Conventionalfuel

productioncredit

With animalfeed credit

Theoreticalmaximum useof co-products

% o

f bi

ofue

l ene

rgy

RME

Ethanol ex Wheat

Ethanol ex Beet

Source:CONCAWE

Probably achievable


• Assumptions on agricultural N2O emissions are critical

• Other measures to reduce CO2 emissions are more cost effective

BIOFUELS PROVIDE LIMITED OVERALL GHG CREDITB

ette

r

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Base case +conventional fuelproduction credit

With animal feedcredit

Theoreticalmaximum use of

co-products

RME

Ethanol ex Wheat

Ethanol ex Beet

GHG reduction versus conventional fuels

Source:CONCAWE

RME, accountingfor N2O emissions, refs 4&5







• Conclusions



WHY ARE FUEL CELL VEHICLES ATTRACTIVE?

• Potential for high vehicle efficiency– Hence lower CO2 emissions

• Very low or zero regulated pollutant emissions

GM HydroGen 1 TOYOTA FCHV-3

• Cautions: Development at an early stage

Conventional vehicles compete strongly

Best source of hydrogen not yet clear


FUEL CELLS NEED CLEAN HYDROGEN

• Free hydrogen does not exist naturally– Hydrogen is an energy carrier, not a source

– It has to be generated from naturally occurring compounds

– Implies energy use and hence GHG emissions

• Hydrogen can be delivered to the vehicle in two ways– Direct hydrogen supply to the vehicle

– On-board the vehicle using a hydrogen containing fluid

• More work is needed on production, supply and storage issues– Codes and standards for safe use also important


RENEWABLE HYDROGEN HAS LONG TERM POTENTIAL

• A renewable source of hydrogen would avoid carbon emissions

Photovoltaics Electrolysis Hydrogen Hydrogen FCV

• Large scale renewable hydrogen remains a long way off– Currently high cost, small volumes– Lack of hydrogen storage/distribution infrastructure

• Near term options still being developed– direct hydrogen– on-board reforming of liquid fuels


FUEL CELL FUELS - THE OPTIONS

• Simplest vehicle system• No emissions on the

vehicle

• Higher energy density• Low emissions

• Highest energy density• Provides highest well to

wheel efficiency• Infrastructure exists• Low emissions

• Efficient/safe storage solution

• Emissions from hydrogen production

• Low energy density

• Infrastructure development

• Requires on-board processor

• Fuel is toxic and water soluble

• Infrastructure development

• Requires on-board processor

ChallengesBenefits

On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuels appears the best near term option

• Hydrogen

• Methanol

• Liquid Hydrocarbons, e.g. gasoline

Fuel Supplied to Vehicle


• Hydrogen from electrolysis is inefficient with conventional electricity– Renewable or nuclear electricity would change the balance

FUEL CELLS AND HYBRIDS OFFER CO2 IMPROVEMENTS

Source: GM-Argonne studybased on US data.European studyunderway

g CO2/mile

Better

Petroleum Natural Gas Electricity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800


RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY TO HYDROGEN ?

1 GWh of renewable electricity

Feed to power grid toreplace coal-generated power

CO2 avoided 972 t

Produce hydrogen by Electrolysis foruse in fuel cell vehicle to replace gasoline hybrid-electric vehicle

CO2 avoided 390 t

• Producing hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles does not maximise the overall GHG benefit

• Renewable electricity is a limited resource– Can be used in different ways







• Conclusions



CONCAWE ACTIVITIES

• CONCAWE committed to principles that developments should be based on sound science, transparency and cost-effectiveness

Technology surveys- emissions legislation, - fuel qualities,- engines/after-treatment

Technical input on legislative developments

Particulate emissions- DG TREN Consortium- GRPE programme

Well to wheels analysis onalternate fuels/vehicles- EUCAR/JRC partnership

Fuel requirements ofadvanced engines- diesel- gasoline


Co-operative work involving all stakeholders critical to achieving the optimal long term solutions

CONCLUSIONS

• Conventional fuels and vehicles will dominate road transport for the foreseeable future– Lower sulphur maximises the potential of advanced vehicle emissions systems

– Changes to other fuel properties provide little emissions benefit

• Increased application of biofuels needs careful assessment• Fuel requirements of advanced engines need to be assessed as the

systems are developed • Fuel cell vehicles have promise but remain far from volume production

– Large scale renewable hydrogen remains far off

– On-board reforming of hydrocarbon fuel is a promising option

• Sound “well to wheels” studies are key to evaluating future options– CONCAWE actively supporting work in this area

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GRPE_djrndt_020214.ppt Slide 1 Transport Fuels for the Future Neville Thompson, David Rickeard...

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