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“Is creativity dead yet?”

The Anthologist30 June

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Simon RogersDirector, GTI

WELCOME

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09.03.16 28.04.16 30.06.16 15.09.16 24.11.16

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2016 dates

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Today’s agenda: “Is creativity dead yet?”

Welcome & trendence UK research updateSimon Rogers, Director, GTI The Economic UpdateDeclan Curry, Broadcaster, Business & Economics journalistDefining culture through creativityBob Athwal, Director of Student Experience, University of Leicester#notboringDan Gregory, Creative Director, Havas PeopleUKTV: the creative leaderWayne Garvie, Chief Creative Officer, Sony International Production

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…60 secondupdate

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Declan CurryBroadcaster, Business & Economics Journalist

THE ECONOMIC REVIEW

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BREXIT AFTERMATH

GARDEZ LE CALMEET

CONTINUEZ

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BREXIT AFTERMATH• Single market – in or out ?

- accept workers’ freedom of migration?• Business Investment • Consumer Confidence • The City – access to markets, job cuts?• Exports to rest of the world

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BREXIT AFTERMATH

A temporary dip in the economy ?

….. or permanently poorer?

…. or a new Elizabethan age of free trade?

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JOBS MARKET• Employment: 31.59m

(Feb-Apr ‘16).. up 461,000 on previous year

• Unemployment: 1.67m (Feb-Apr ‘16)

… down 148,000 on previous year• Youth un’ployment: 621,000 (Feb-Apr 16)

… rate 13.6%, down from 16.0% last yr

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YOUTH ACTIVITYNot in education, employment or training:• 865,000 16-24 year olds (Jan-Mar 2016)

… 12% of all young people in UK… down 68,000 from previous year

• WORST in England: North East (16%)• BEST in England: South East (9%)

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WAGESStill rising faster than prices … • Average earnings: +2.0% (3mth Apr

y/y)• Private sector: +2.1% (3mth Feb

y/y)• Public sector: +1.7% (3mth Feb

y/y)… rising after years of freeze

• Construction: +8.4% (3mth Mar y/y)

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INFLATIONNot-very-rising prices …• CPI: +0.3%

May ‘16same inflation rate as April ’16

RISING PRICES: transport, restaurantsFALLING PRICES: food, clothing, toys

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EURO INFLATIONPrices FALLING in many European nations

… hurts savings, consumer spending• Euro Union inflation: -0.1% May ‘16• German inflation: 0.0% May

‘1616 of 28 EU nations have negative inflation

… including Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania

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ECONOMIC GROWTHSlowing down, even before Brexit … • GDP:

+0.4% Q1 2016was:

+0.6% Q4 2015Increased 13 qtrs in a rowUK GDP 7% bigger than before

crashWATCH: business investment before EU ref

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GLOBAL GROWTHAnnual change, Q1 2016• UK: +2.0% • USA:

+1.9% (will overtake)• Germany: +1.6%

(v.strong Q1)• Eurozone: +1.5%

(Lazarus !)• Japan: 0.0%

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PRODUCTIVITYStalled again …. • Q1 2016: unchanged

y/y• FY 2015: +0.9% y/y• FY 2014: +0.1% y/y … had been growing 2% y/y before crash … UK second-worst in G7

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TRADE• Exports: £512 bn

2015• Imports: £548

bn 2015• TRADE GAP: £ 36 bn 2015Europe remains our largest trading bloc … … exports boost needed in China, Asia, Americas to mitigate any Brexit decline.

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MANUFACTURINGFactories producing less than a year ago• M. Output Index: +0.1% monthly

Marbut: -

1.9% annually MarBut more manufacturers expect output rise• CBI Indust Trends: +23 pts (Jun ‘16)

was: +20 pts (May ‘16)

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CONFIDENCEConfidence fragile in service industry• Markit PMI index: 53.5 pts (May

‘16)was

52.3 pts (Apr ‘16)Consumers remain slightly anxious … • GfK/NOP index: -1 pt (May

‘16)was: -2

pts (Apr ‘16)

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HOUSING MARKET Dips after March rush to avoid stamp duty • House prices (ONS): +0.7 monthly Apr

‘16• Mortgage approvals: 66,250 Apr ‘16

down 5.8% monthly, down 2.2% annually• House building: 35,530

starts Q1down 3% quarterly, down 9% annually

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PERSONAL DEBTWe owe 143% of our disposable income … peaked during crash at 169% - Q1 2008*What happens when interest rates rise?*Insolvencies Eng&Wales: 20,383 Q1 2016

up from Q4 2015; down 2.2% yearlyInsolvencies Scotland: 2,232, -13% y/y

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GOVERNMENT DEBTDeficit falling, but not as fast as predicted• New borrowing: £75 bn

2015/1618% less than previous year ……still higher than before credit

crunch• Accumulated debt : £1,607 bn May 2016

83.7% of GDP; highest % since 1968

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INTEREST RATESUp in USA, UK frozen, negative in Eurozone• Federal Reserve (USA):

Key rate btwn 0.25-0.5%; 1st rise in 9 yrs• European Central Bank:

Consumers 0%; banks -0.40% since Mar• Bank of England: 0.5% since Mar 2009

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THE POUNDDown 5.2% against major currencies in yr• £1 =

$1.45 (May ‘16)… down 6.2% over a year

• £1 = €1.28 (May ‘16)

… down 7.5% over a yearNB: BEFORE referendum night hysteria

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FINANCIAL MARKETS(as of 24 June; source: FT)

• FTSE-100: 6,138all-time high in May 2015; down

14%• Brent Crude oil: $50.70 /bbl

fell below $30 /bbl in Jan 2016• Gold:

$1,262.20 /ozwas at 6-year low in Dec 15;

revived

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Bob AthwalDirector of Student Experience, University of Leicester

DEFINING CULTURE THROUGH CREATIVITY

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Culture Eats Strategy For Breakfast

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My Challenge to You!

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Question?

What influences 8 out of 10 Millennials when choosing where to work?

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Innovation

See themselves as innovativeSee their employer as innovative

50%62%

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Blue Ocean Strategy

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© The Smarty Train, 2016. All rights reserved.

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© The Smarty Train, 2016. All rights reserved.

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Latest Performance – employment of leavers

93.8% in work and/or further study (↑ 0.6pp)

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Are you a Leader or a Follower?

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Dilly Ding Dilly Dong!

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Thanks• Never Stop Dreaming!• “Claudio Ranieri”• Get Creative & Start a Movement

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Join the Conversation Blog: https://lnkd.in/eCQ5JUs Twitter: @BobAthwal

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Dan GregoryCreative Director, Havas People

#NOTBORING

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It’s obvious but it’s not easy

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Meet your competitors

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3

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Be brave

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Tell the same story in a better way

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@ Havas People

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Get involved

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Be memorable

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Enjoy it

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Start today

Dan Gregory. Creative Director. Havas People. dan.gregory@havaspeople.com

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Wayne GarvieChief Creative Officer, Sony International ProductionUKTV: THE CREATIVE LEADER

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