GUIN WED 230PM VEN V.pdf

8/12/2019 GUIN WED 230PM VEN V.pdf

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Shake, Rattle and Roll:ana an ar qua e s

Jay Guin, Ph.D. and Arash Nasseri, Ph.D.

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AGENDA

Background and motivation for modeling Canadianrisks

Seismic risk in Canada Recent updates to the AIR Earthquake Model for

ana a Newly added sub-perils of the AIR Earthquake Model

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THE INCREASES IN LOSS REFLECT CHANGES INCANADIAN DEMOGRAPHICS AND INSURANCE PRACTICES

Increases in losses may be impacted by:

P&C insurance premiums Population growth Changes in the building stock

40ns Total Population 7,000 Total Premium Written

25

30

35Millio

5,000

6,000

ms(CAD

mn)

Personal Property

Ind & Com Property

10

15

20

1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 20123,000

4,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Premiu

40% increase since 198015% increase in total

premiums in five years

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AIR HIGH RESOLUTION INDUSTRY EXPOSURE DATABASEREFLECTS THE INCREASE IN THE VALUE AT RISK

800 Million CAD

The1 km2 grid cell contains exposure value by

5

, ,


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MOST OF THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT LOSSES WERECAUSED BY ATMOSPHERIC PERILS

Year Date Place EventInsured Loss (mnCAD)

(adjusted to 2011)

1998 January Southern Quebec Ice storm 1,818

2005 August 19 Ontario Wind/rainstorm 700

2010 July 12-13 Calgary and southern Alberta Hail/thunderstorm 5451991 Sept. 7 Calgary Hail 496

1987 July 31 Edmonton Tornado 260

. - ,

1998 January Eastern Ontario Ice storm 223

1996 July 16 Winnipeg Flooding/hail 198

2004 July 2-11 Edmonton Hail 1902003 Se t. 28-29 Nova Scotia & Prince Edward Island Hurricane Juan 163

2000 May 12 Southern Ontario Storm 161

1996 July 16-18 Calgary Hail 161

1985 May 31 Barrie ON Tornado 160

1999 January Southern Ontario Snowstorm 155

2006 Nov. 15-Dec. 15 British Columbia Storm 1462008 September Saskatchewan Hail 139

2002 March 9 Ontario Wind 133

2008 June 10 Several regions in Quebec Hail 131

6

une - n ar o n un ers orm

1996 July 24-25 Calgary Hail 115


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AIR IS RELEASING AN UPDATED SUITE OFATMOSPHERIC PERIL MODELS IN 2015

Source: Sills, et al. (2012)

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AIR was selected by the

Insurance Bureau of Canada

o con uc e mos

comprehensive study ofseismic risk ever undertaken

for Canada.

The study is now considered

to be state of the science

earthquake risk.

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Seismic Risk in Canada

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CANADA EARTHQUAKE FAST FACTS

3,000 to 4,500 earthquakes occur in Canada each year.

,

be felt.

offshore or in remote and largely unpopulated areas.

Canadas largest recorded earthquake was a M8.1 event in1949 along the Queen Charlotte Fault off of BritishColumbia.

occurred approximately every 500 years in the historicalrecord. Last was about 300 years agoan estimated M9event in 1700.

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TWO MAJOR ACTIVE SEISMIC ZONES IN CANADA

Charlevoix

Seismic Zone

Cascadia

Subduction

Last significant

event: M6.0 in

Saguenay, 1988

Zone

Last significant

event: M7.7 in

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,


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CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE OVERVIEW

Formed by Juan de Fuca Plate converging and slidingbeneath North American Plate

Three types ofearthquakes:

Megathrust

Deep interface

Can affect widegeographic area and

give rise to tsunamis Long period seismic waves

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CHARLEVOIX SEISMIC ZONE OVERVIEW

Seismicity in eastern Canada is very different

Part of the stable interior of the North American Plate

Relatively low level of earthquake activity

Causes of earthquakes inthis area are not well known

Related to re ional stressfields

Crustal weakness

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Updates of the AIR Canada Earthquake

Model

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AIR NEW MODEL INCORPORATES THE LATEST DATA,SCIENCE AND MODELING TECHNIQUES

Pre-release access to historic GSC 2012 Historical CatalogModel Based on 2003 GSC

Survey of Canada (GSC, 2012) Latest active fault data in and

o e ase on

Extensive geodetic data covering

western Canada and USAgeotechnical data for characterizingsite conditions

Equations and basin effects

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GPS DATA AND KINEMATIC MODEL RESULTS AREINTEGRATED WITH HISTORICAL DATA

Controlled by Earthquake Catalog Controlled by Catalog, Fault Slip Rates,and GPS Data

eRate

Cumulativ

Magnitude

Collaborated with Dr. Robert McAffrey to estimate crustal strain rates

GPS data is used to estimate Cascadia fault locking and crustal

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DISTRIBUTION OF SIMULATED EVENTRUPTURES FOLLOWS THE HISTORICAL DATA

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SHAKE DAMAGE MODULE IS UPDATED BASED ON THESTUDY OF BUILDING VULNERABILITY IN CANADA

Collaborated with local researchers tostud the vulnerabilit of Canadian

buildings and infrastructures Used observational data, engineering

analysis and lessons from recent events

Incorporated seismic code evolution in-

Added industrial facility module (IFM)

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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF A BUILDING ISINFORMED BY SEISMIC DESIGN CODE

Seismic Code Levels to Classify Vulnerability

Vul. Class

Code LevelDescription

PreWithout seismic consideration, mostly

refers to non-engineered buildings

LowI

With minimal seismic consideration

Moderate

I

With moderate seismic considerationII

III

High

I

With stringent seismic considerationII

III

Decreasing Vulnerabil itySpecial

IWith very stringent seismic

consideration

II

II

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Code

Code

Code


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SEISMIC DESIGN CODE REFLECTS EVOLUTION INUNDERSTANDING OF VULNERABILITY

Pre 1954 1954 - 1972 1973 - 1987 1988 -1997 1998 -2007 Post 2007

1941

1st NationalBuildingCodeof Canada

1953

1st SeismicZonationMap

1970

1st fullyprobabilisticseismichazard ma

1985

Hazard mapbased on475 RP

1990

1995Same map,updated

1988

M5.9SaguenayEarthquake

2005

Majorupdate,UHS. 2475 RP

2010

Minorupdate

(NBCC) ,

ultimatestrengthdesign

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Earthquake Sub-Perils

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CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE EARTHQUAKESPOSE A TSUNAMI THREAT

AIR introduces a fully probabilistic tsunami model

Source: Natural Resources CanadaCourtesy: Natori, Miyagi, 2011 Tohoku Tsunami

, , ,

Based on linear/nonlinear shallow water equations Uses high resolution inner grids Incorporates astronomical tides

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Considers the levees and account for probabilistic levee failure


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TSUNAMI SIMULATION MODEL CAPTURES THEPROGRESSION OF WATER INTO THE LAND

Model provides height, velocity and arrival time of the inundation

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LOSSES DUE TO LIQUEFACTION HAVE BECOMEAN AREA OF CONCERN

Risk of significant damage due to liquefaction was highlightedby the 2010 and 2011 earthquakes in New Zealand

Photos from AIR damage survey in NZ

and Richmondlowlands are highlysusceptible to

que ac on ue oloose granularsediments and highwater table

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LIQUEFACTION MODULE USES EXTENSIVEGEOLOGICAL AND GROUND WATER DATA

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UPDATED AIR MODEL FOR CANADA ESTIMATES DAMAGECAUSED BY LANDSLIDES IN THE ELEVATED AREAS

Slope is calculated from high resolution digital Surficial and bedrock geology maps are used to

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FINER RESOLUTION, BETTER IGNITION MECHANISMAND ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD MODULE

AIRs updated fire following earthquake model runs on a 1 km2 grid

cellular automata modeling techniques

Source: Google

Updated fire suppression modeling explicitly accounts for theVancouver Dedicated Fire Protection System auxiliary water supply

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VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF THE CANADA EARTHQUAKEMODEL HAVE BEEN PEER REVIEWED

Hazard component has been extensively peer reviewed byProf. Ste hane Mazzotti from Mont ellier Universit inFrance and a former geophysicist in GSC

Vulnerability component has been peer reviewed by Prof.-

Montreal

Fire following component has been peer reviewed by Dr.Keisuke Himoto from Kyoto University in Japan and Dr.Geoff Thomas from Victoria University in New Zealand

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AIRs IBC STUDY

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WESTERN SCENARIO: M9.0 EARTHQUAKEFROM THE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE

Direct loss of 62 billion CAD

Total economic loss of 75 billion CAD

Magnitude 9, depth 11 km

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(direct + indirect)

Total Insured loss of 20 billion CAD

300km from downtown Vancouver


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WESTERN SCENARIO: LOSS BREAK DOWN

0.9 0.2

Residential15.7

0.2

Trasnportation-Roads

Transportation-Railways

40.7Commercial/Industrial

Auto

.

12.0

rpor

Port

Pipeline-oil

Pipeline-water

58.2Agricultural

4.9

16.813.8

0.06

.Pipeline-Gas

Electrical transmission

Telecom

0.9 8.9

55.3

39.9 Tsunami

FFE

.

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4.8Liquefaction/Landslide

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EASTERN SCENARIO: M7.1 EARTHQUAKEFROM THE CHARLEVOIX SEISMIC ZONE

Magnitude 7.1, depth 10km Direct loss of 49 billion CAD

Total economic loss of 61 billion CAD

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(direct + indirect)

Total Insured loss of 12 billion CAD


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EASTERN SCENARIO: LOSS BREAK DOWN

0.7 0.8

Residential

0.2

Trasnportation-Roads

Transportation-Railways

41.6Commercial/Industrial

Auto

.

7.2

49.3

rpor

Port

Pipeline-oil

Pipeline-water

57.0Agricultural

2.09.1

0.05.9

Pipeline-Gas

Electrical transmission

Telecom

3.51.5 0.6

.

Tsunami

FFE

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96.5 Liquefaction/Landslide97.8

CATASTROPHE MODELS REPRESENT FULL


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CATASTROPHE MODELS REPRESENT FULLRANGE OF EARTHQUAKE SIZES & TYPES

Small to moderate magnitudeshallow crustal events can cause

- -the Saint Lawrence and OttawaRiver Valley and impact Ottawa andToronto

Western Canada 100-500 Year Event Sample

Events in the Cascadia Subduction

of Vancouver Island can cause 100-to 500-year damage levels in BritishColumbia

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Eastern Canada 100-500 Year Event Sample


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SUMMARY

Catastrophes by nature are unpredictable and are not dictated by thehistorical record. The risk in Canada is real and likely higher than the

.

Earthquake science is continuing to evolve and lessons learned from.

A comprehensive view of earthquake risk includes an understanding of-

ground shaking.

just confined to Vancouver or Quebec City.

The u dated AIR Earth uake Model for Canada will be released in

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July 2014 and features a unified catalog for the US and Canada

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